Ooh Mad... Just A Little Bit

[madnesstiger]

Are you sitting comfortably... then I’ll begin. INTRODUCTION I’ve been spending the last week or so catching up on the PL forums after being away for a little while. It’s good to see so many familiar names still active and also to see so many new members. As my regular haunt over the years has been the Glory Hunters den, I’ve taken an interest in the various systems being utilitised and tweaked here and there, in particularly the ‘Most Consecutive Bets’ type of threads - you know, the ones where ScottyXS seems to have set the standard so well that I see there is now a league table set up to show how poorly, or unlucky as some may argue, everyone else seems to perform in comparison. I like this idea, and I appreciate Rebel’s time for producing such thread. All these previous Hunts have (maybe unnoticed by many) provided us with lots of information. Granted, many a thread are simply lists of simple ‘1+ Total Goals’ bets and suchlike with the hope of getting lucky and achieving a respectable position in the previously-mentioned league table, but others take it a step further and implement ‘banking’ strategies, calculated selection systems varying from the plain and simple to the exquisitely complex, and so on. These threads have grown on me, and have aided me into deciding on this as my next Glory Hunt adventure. OOH MAD... JUST A LITTLE BIT

100% Madness and MadnessDaily systems of yesteryear but with a ‘wiser’ approach. Also worth noting, this system...

• Is based on a Martingale Staking strategy, and must only be carried out with money you can afford to lose. (Visit gambleaware.co.uk for more information)
• Does not technically satisfy all criteria for inclusion in the ‘Glory Hunters Consecutive Bets League’ – main reason being that I do expect to, or am required to, win every single bet consecutively for the system to work. However, large parts of the system may consist of consecutive winners.
• Has been reasonably successful in the past when used with riskier staking strategies. However this does not mean it is forced to be any kind of success this time around.
• Is largely based on my own previous ideas, although concepts from other GH’s and readings have been implemented in an aim to improve the strategy.

THE SYSTEM An initial bankroll of £50.00 will be used throughout the GH, and will be known as the bank. Each bet will have 1 or 2 chances of winning. Each bet will be made up of either

• 1 single selection using entire bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.02-1.03 in order to win 2%-3% of current bank at the time of the bet.
• 1 single selection using part of the bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.06-1.11 in order to win 1.75% of current bank at the time of the bet, with a 2^nd chance option which will consist of a selection using the remainder of the bank @ equivalent back odds of 1.21-1.44, depending on the odds used for the 1^st selection.
• Each bet will be made with the aim of winning 1.75% of the current bankroll
• When a single-selection bet wins at odds of 1.02, the following bet will have a target of winning just 1.50% of the current bankroll in order to satisfy an average of 1.75% over the 2 consecutive bets.
• When a single-selection bet wins at odds of 1.03, the following bet will have a target of winning just 0.50% of the current bankroll in order to satisfy an average of 1.75% over the 2 consecutive bets.

With the above rules in mind, the following table should describe better what my selection choices are limited to; Regular Single-Selection Bet (To Win 2.00%-3.00% of Bank)

Chance 1	Chance 2	Chance of Failure
1.02	N/A	2.0% (1-(1/1.02))
1.03	N/A	2.9%

Regular 2-Chance Bet (To Win 1.75% of Bank)

Chance 1	Chance 2	Chance of Failure
1.06	1.44	1.73%
1.07	1.36	1.73%
1.08	1.31	1.75%
1.09	1.27	1.76%
1.10	1.24	1.76%
1.11	1.21	1.72%

2-Chance Bet Following A 1.02 Single-Selection Winner (To Win 1.50% of Bank)

Chance 1	Chance 2	Chance of Failure
1.06	1.36	1.50%
1.07	1.30	1.51%
1.08	1.25	1.48%
1.09	1.22	1.49%
1.10	1.20	1.52%
1.11	1.18	1.51%

2-Chance Bet Following A 1.03 Single-Selection Winner (To Win 0.50% of Bank)

Chance 1	Chance 2	Chance of Failure
1.06	1.10	0.51%
1.07	1.09	0.54%
1.08	1.08	0.55%
1.09	1.07	0.54%
1.10	1.06	0.51%
1.11	1.06	0.56%

As shown, the vast majority of bets will have a theoretical chance of failure of 2% or less. In reality though, anything can happen! Using the above strategy, each winning bet should win, on average, 1.75% of the bank. However, as successful bets are achieved, it would not be surprising to find the average win to be higher than the 1.75% target, especially when 2^nd chance selections are made due to the fact that the entire remaining bank is used as the stake, and not a fixed amount, resulting in slightly higher returns. Other points to note;

• There is no magic formula for picking selections. Decisions will be made for each selection using information found mainly on the internet such as recent form, league tables, rankings, team/player news, etc.
• Selections may be placed on any sport or event, although personal favourites football (soccer) and tennis will feature more often than not.
• Selections may be made either Pre-Match or In-Play using Bet365 odds. Selections will be posted as soon as possible in the thread, especially when selecting In-Play options, with timings and current status of event noted.

As for betting strategy, that’s about all there is to it. BANKING This GH will implement banking of winnings should I get far enough. The banking strategy has been designed with 2 main objectives...

1. To bank an amount equal to that of the initial bankroll, so that the GH has become effectively ‘free to play’, in a reasonably short timeframe.
2. To maximise potential profits after the 1^st objective has been met, whilst still making occasional withdrawals in anticipation the dreaded failing bet.

This may take some explaining, but I’ll try my best to explain the banking strategy.

• After 25 successful bets, the initial bankroll of £50.00 will have reached £77.15 (based on an average win of 1.75% of the bank – this figure may well be slightly higher).
• If bets 1-25 each had a target win of just 1.00% of the bank, the estimated bank after 25 successful bets would be £64.12.
• The 1^st banking withdrawal will be the current bank after 25 successful bets minus £64.12 – this would be at least £13.03 (£77.15-£64.12).
• Bet 26 will follow, with a bank of £64.12, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
• The same rules will then apply as above after 50 successful bets, and a banking withdrawal of at least £16.71 will be made.
• Bet 51 will follow, with a bank of £82.23, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
• The same rules will then apply as above after 75 successful bets, and a banking withdrawal of at least £21.43 will be made.
• The total banked after 75 successful bets would now exceed the initial bankroll of £50.00
• Bet 76 will follow, with a bank of £105.45, and a target win per bet of 1.75%.
• After 100 successful bets the £105.45 will have reached £162.71.
• If bets 76-100 each had a target win of just 1.50% of the bank, the estimated bank after 100 successful bets would be £153.00.
• The 4^th banking withdrawal will be the current bank after 100 successful bets minus £153.00 – this would be at least £9.71.
• Each set of 25 successful bets would then continue in this fashion.

The following table shows the estimated banks after successful bets, upto and including the current record of 350 bets set by ScottyXS.

#	Starting Bank	Cumm. Bets	1.75% Target	If Target Win Was...	Bank Would Be...	£ Banked	Cumm. Banked
1	£50.00	25	£77.15	1.00%	£64.12	£13.03	£13.03
2	£64.12	50	£98.94	1.00%	£82.23	£16.71	£29.74
3	£82.23	75	£126.88	1.00%	£105.45	£21.43	£51.17
4	£105.45	100	£162.71	1.50%	£153.00	£9.71	£60.88
5	£153.00	125	£236.08	1.50%	£221.99	£14.09	£74.97
6	£221.99	150	£342.53	1.50%	£322.10	£20.43	£95.40
7	£322.10	175	£496.99	1.50%	£467.35	£29.64	£125.04
8	£467.35	200	£721.11	1.50%	£678.10	£43.01	£168.05
9	£678.10	225	£1046.30	1.50%	£983.89	£62.41	£230.46
10	£983.89	250	£1518.12	1.50%	£1427.57	£90.55	£321.01
11	£1427.57	275	£2202.71	1.50%	£2071.33	£131.38	£452.39
12	£2071.33	300	£3196.02	1.50%	£3005.39	£190.63	£643.02
13	£3005.39	325	£4637.26	1.50%	£4360.66	£276.60	£919.62
14	£4360.66	350	£6728.41	1.50%	£6327.08	£401.33	£1320.95

Think you can complete 500 successful bets, and miss the theoretical 10 losing bets (2% chance of failure)? If you can, you would be walking home with approximately £59.000 + whatever you’ve banked along the way! Anyhow, enough of dreamland. I would be happy with 75 winners and a free GH. Out of interest. the latest Consecutive Bets League Table (at time of writing this) shows that the average amount of bets is 131, with a median value of 111 winners. I think that just about crosses the T’s and dots the I’s for this one. Back soon to kick this one off :) MT :ok

This GH is based on my original

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Ooh Mad... Just A Little Bit Hi mate, Great to have you back! :clap Looking forward to seeing how this one develops! :ok