AFL Round 1 2011

[Ashtee]

Uhhumm!

Event	Geelong v St Kilda
Selection	Geelong
Strength	7/10
Date	25/03/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 2.27
Reasoning	Chapman & Ling (and couple of others + Ablett) appear unlikly for Geelong, as is the important Schnieder for St Kilda plus a couple of others that will also mean McAvoy is exposed as the sole ruckman. The point with Geelong is that they have depth of quality to cover those outs. I'd expect a revigorated first up showing under the new coach and after the events of the off season. With St kilda, perhaps they come out firing but I must also consider the off season distractions and that they may be underdone due to a very late start to pre season training - they have dropped off in second half's in practice games, so it may be too soon to worry should they lead out early. Centrebet are alone on price, with Pinnacle already laying St Kilda. My price; Geelong 1.90

Event	Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Selection	Port Adelaide +42.5
Strength	7/10
Date	26/03/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 2.09
Reasoning	A full strength Port will be a whole lot more of a handfull than the injury depleted unit we witnessed for much of last year, even if they do go with a kid or two. As good as they are, this is a definite let-down possibility off recent achievements, where the whole world is expecting Port to be a push over. I can see this game still alive by 3QT. My price; Port 6.00 & +25

And of course, I've had something on them at 11.00 SU. I also fancy a nibble at the price on Richmond, as an early leaning. Carlton have a good list but but there's quite a few quality players that have battled injury in the pre season, some won't come up either. So, all the likely action for me is early in the round. It's unusual I like the price on the reigning premiers for the flag but I do like Collingwood at the 3.00. Don't get me wrong, they got away with the softest premiership I can ever recall and would have lost to any other Grand final combatant in last 30-years. It shouldn't have been their year but for some disastrous tactics & prep by the Saints. This year they do look more advanced, though.

[gibbo14]

Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Carlton, 1.35 (TAB) 10/10 Richmond are shocking, Carlton to be one of the surprise packets of the season, cant see Richmond getting within 30 points. St Kilda, 1.72 (TAB) 8/10 Geelong getting old, Saints looking to put an off season of controversy behind them, Saints play well at the dome. just cant see them being beaten, especially without Ablett, Chapman, Ling Good Luck