Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4)

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After 2 days of going purely on trends I am having a rethink. My picks don’t have to fit the trends now but they will still be taken into account! 1.30 Cheltenham This first race is tough as there are so many horses that could be anything. Think SAM WINNER has to be considered even after a disappointing effort last time. His two CD wins but especially his demolition job of GRANDOUET looks very impressive. GRANDOUET has looked a real improver since that run and has a big chance from the stable that took this last year. ZARKANDAR made an excellent debut at Kempton absolutely thumping kumbeshwar who went very close carrying top weight in the Fred Winter yesterday. UNACCOMPANIED is a horse I really like after trouncing his rivals in Ireland in a grade 1 contest last time out. A MEDIA LUZ, BRAMPOUR and SMAD PLACE all look very interesting as well and can’t be left out of calculations. Favourites don’t have the best record in the race, but something near the top of the betting has won the last 6 renewals. At bigger prices THIRD INTENTION, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and TROP FORT are worth a second look but I think in this I am going to stick with the first 5 or 6 in the betting. All in all I think it’s wise to look for something that has shown high class form already. I am going to rule out GRANDOUET as I think the stable are going to continue winless during the festival. I am going to rule out the Nicholls horses other than SAM WINNER as Ruby has picked this one to ride plus he has 2 CD wins. I can’t leave UNACCOMPANIED out either with a grade 1 win already to his name. Bets SAM WINNER 2 pts win 7/1 Bet 365 UNACCOMPANIED 2pts win 7/1 Bet 365 2.05 Cheltenham Last 3 renewals of this race have gone to a big priced horse but I really fancy a couple of Irish horses here. There are so many horses that come into the race in great form and only few can be ruled out on certain trends. Big weight and age seem to be quite important here and can rule a few out. The two I like are the favourite DIRAR and ALAIVAN. DIRAR had a recent spin on the flat to get him spot on for this and himself is a classy horse on the flat. The stable are clearly in good form and I think they have a massive chance here. ALAIVAN’s comfortable victory over carlito brigante was given a massive boost with that horse winning easily yesterday. In a race where horses at the top of the betting don’t have that bad a record I am happy to take these two against the field. Bets DIRAR 5pts win 7/1 Ladbrokes ALAIVAN 2 pts win 9/1 Ladbrokes 2.40 Cheltenham Keep this one short as well. BOBS WORTH should be hard to beat but I think the rain may just come for COURT IN MOTION. I see that heavy rain is forecast over night which is what the horse needs. Emma Lavelle says it’s her favourite horse in the yard and her best chance. Hopefully the defeat last time out was just a blip and can run a massive race here. Plenty of other horses that need mentioning such as GAGEWELL FLYER, JOIN TOGETHER, KILCREA KIM and MOSSLEY but I think COURT IN MOTION will run a huge race and should not finish outside of the first 3. Bet COURT IN MOTION 5pts e/w 9/1 Bet 365 3.20 Cheltenham This is the biggy! To be honest I can’t wait for this race. Would love to see KAUTO STAR win again but the age stat would rule him out. Coupled with the fact that he may just be on the decline, I can’t be having him here. Certain other trends rule both DENMAN and IMPERIAL COMMANDER out. The last 10 winners of the race have all come from the first 3 in the betting which only leaves LONG RUN. His comfortable victory in the King George was pretty impressive and I fully expect him to be involved at the finish. 9 out of the last 10 winners were rated 166+ which also rules out some of the fancied horses such as PANDORAMA and MIDNIGHT CHASE. For some reason I really like the look of TIDAY BAY. The horse has shown some really high class form over hurdles and has won at Cheltenham before. He has finished second on his last 2 outings over fences, both times finishing strongly. If they go a good clip in this race, it could be set up nicely for him. The horses form at Cheltenham reads 1-2-2-1-1-3-4-1-7-2 and I hope he can add a 1 to that tomorrow. I think this horse can run a massive race tomorrow and at 20/1, I pretty happy to take that! Bets TIDAL BAY 5pts e/w 20/1 Bet 365 4.00 Cheltenham Think BABY RUN may just lose out to something younger. I like the look of ON THE FRINGE and will take this one to become the second 6 year old winner of the race. Bet ON THE FRINGE 5pts win 4/1 Bet 365 4.40 Cheltenham Only the third running of the race with both previous winners coming at double figure prices and both being aged 6. So many of these could win this but I like the look of MISTER HYDE. His 6th behind grands crus is very decent form and that came at the track. Has one of the best jockeys on board and fits both the previous trends of being aged 6 and at a double figure price. The mullins horse could be anything but I will take my chances with this horse. Bet MISTER HYDE 5pts e/w 14/1 Bet 365 5.15 Cheltenham Would be nice to sign off with a winner Bet Pigeon Island 2 pts win 20/1 Bet 365 Anquetta 2pts win 8/1 Bet 365 Pretty sure that’s 50pts staked altogether. Need some winners!

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Re: Jumps Racing March 18th (including Cheltenham day 4) 1:30 Cheltenham: Houblon Des Obeaux 1pt win 28/1 Victor Chandler Houblon Des Obeaux finished in front of both Smad Place and Sam winner at Chepstow. Looking at the odds today, bookmakers must feel that placing was down to the ground. And that is understandable as Houblon Des Obeaux then followed up on heavy at Haydock. While it will be good ground at Cheltenham, Houblon Des Obeaux may handle that too, in which case, he could be a massive price. Venetia William's horses are in decent form. 2:05 Cheltenham: Alarazi 1pt win 9/1 Ladbrokes Alarazi looks to have a good chance of picking up the bonus after his win in the Imperial Cup. He won that in fine style and had previously only gone down by a short head to Art Professor here at the end of January. The form of both those races looks solid and while its a big ask to win two highly competitive races close together it has been done before. Lucy Wadham and Dominic Elsworth have a good and profitable record when they team up over hurdles. 3:30 Cheltenham: Imperial Commander 1pt win 4/1 Bet365 Imperial Commander looks worth a small interest at this price. His age may count against him, however he has very few miles on the clock with just twelve chase starts. Other statistics really count in his favour. He is 8 from 9 when having a break of more than fifty days and he is 5 from 6 at Cheltenham. Nigel Twiston-Davies is not in one of his red hot streaks at the moment, yet his horses are running well enough. Imperial Commander may be vulnerable to a younger challenger, and Long Run in particular, however sticking with him looks the percentage call. 4:00 Cheltenham: Dante's Storm 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Having followed Lawney Hill when she has taken over other trainer's horses, it may pay to do the same here with her husband Alan. Dante's Storm joined Alan Hill and produced a comfortable win at Folkestone. If there is some more improvement to come he would not be too far behind the market principles.