Finding Value in the Formbook

[Kingspur]

I have been backtesting another system which has produced some nice results so I will be using this thread to take it live. I have collated the last ten years of results for Premier Lg, Championship and League 1 and worked out what position each team would be in a six game form league table. The difference between the positions gives me a match rating. I have then worked out the probabilities of results based on the match ratings and from this come up with 'base odds' for each combination. So to qualify for the system, the actual odds must show +1 above the base odds value. The backtest was on the games so far this season and it produced yields of 71% for Premier League, 49% for Championship and 9% for League 1. I think the Premier League is so high because of the huge numbers of massive shocks we have had this season. So we'll see how taking it live goes. Bank of 100 units. Stake is 1 unit per match. Ranking is the form table from last 6 games. Bookie is Betfair Weekend picks as follows: Arsenal (1st) vs Wolves (16th) Away win @ 15.5 West Brom (19th) vs West Ham (13th) Away win @ 4.0 Cardiff (10th) vs Scunthorpe (24th) Away win @ 10.5 Huddersfield (7th) vs Oldham (3rd) Away win @ 4.5 Southampton (13th) vs Carlisle (17th) Away win @ 7.6 Fulham (6th) vs Chelsea (2nd) Home win @ 5.4

[Kingspur]

Re: Finding Value in the Formbook Well a nice consistant 100% loss with the selections this weekend Arsenal (1st) vs Wolves (16th) Away win @ 15.5 LOST West Brom (19th) vs West Ham (13th) Away win @ 4.0 LOST Cardiff (10th) vs Scunthorpe (24th) Away win @ 10.5 LOST Huddersfield (7th) vs Oldham (3rd) Away win @ 4.5 LOST Southampton (13th) vs Carlisle (17th) Away win @ 7.6 LOST I am gutted though because after I finished posting my first message, I carried on finding selections right down to the Blue Square North & South. Using all of these selections I would actually have had the following results Staked 12 units Profit 3.63 Yield 30.25% This would have come with results for Stockport (H), and Gateshead, Weston Super Mare and Lewes (A). But as I didn't post it before the game I cannot include it in my figures so the official figures have to be posted as Staked 5 units Profit -5 Yield -100% So lesson number 1 learned - make sure you post all your selections Now Lesson number 2 - lets start making some profit.... Fulham home win against Chelsea will start me off nicely.