KThom Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I did try and start a new system thread a while back but have been waylaid with work, personal life and lack of internet connection for a few months. It has given me some more time to concentrate on the dynamics of my system anyhow. The system is based around picking home teams to win only, generally at odds of evens or better. I have some score prediction software which has enabled me to select games which fit a certain criteria generated by recent home form, h2h meetings and league statistics. From these selections (across a multitude of leagues) I have been able to back test the results using odds from football-data. Originally the plan was to start the system using flat stakes (which shows profits as below) Flat Stakes Using Bet 365 Tot Stake £53,800.00 Avg Stake £100.00 Profit £3,148.00 Yield 5.85% S/R 55.39% Games 538 Wins 298 Avg Odds 1.97 Lose Streak 8 Win Streak 10 Low -£80.00 High £3,148.00 Season Low -£1,023.00 Low Year 2007 Season High £1,398.00 High Year 2009 Flat Stakes using best odds Tot Stake £53,800.00 Avg Stake £100.00 Profit £5,747.00 Yield 10.68% S/R 55.39% Games 538 Wins 298 Avg Odds 2.06 Lose Streak 8 Win Streak 10 Low -£75.00 High £5,747.00 Season Low -£774.00 Low Year 2007 Season High £1,719.00 High Year 2009 But then I started considering other staking plans. It is clear from the above that the strike rate is a pretty constant 55.5% - and this is consistent from season to season by league to league. The above stats are pretty good. Using the best odds available (according to football-data) a yield of 10.68% shows after 538 selections giving a 57 point profit (since 2004-05 season). There were / are however long “dry” periods where the bank remains flat, or doesn’t increase at a quick enough rate for my liking. I then started measuring the same selections using the Kelly and Ansell staking criteria. In both instances I used 55.5% as the “true chance” figure – which basically means any selection with odds of 1.8 or lower was excluded. It also meant that the higher the odds – the higher the stake. The results are more promising. Even using the bet365 odds alone a significant profit and yield is noted, which is steady season on season. Ansell Stakes using bet 365 Tot Stake £55,627.55 Avg Stake £175.48 Profit £14,674.21 Yield 26.38% S/R 51.42% Games 317 Wins 163 Avg Odds 2.26 Lose Streak 6 Win Streak 7 Low £182.33 High £14,674.21 Season Low -£2,228.54 Low Year 2007 Season High £4,457.30 High Year 2005 I know there are a lot of pro’s and con’s where the Kelly v Ansell criteria is discussed, but I personally favour the Ansell criteria – unless anyone can sway me otherwise. Now I understand that what has happened in the past has no reflection on what will happen in the future – and I can possibly be accused of back fitting. The last time I half started this thread with flat stakes the few selections resulted in a poor return – but had I had the time and resource to continue a profit would have been made from that point until now. The results to me look smooth, consistent and more importantly profitable. There may be a more significant way of measuring my selections and data. For the mean time I will post my selections, showing the flat stake (always £100) and the Ansell stake (if best odds exceed 1.80). At the moment the system is in the middle of a fantastic run, so even more reason for my selections to go belly up once posted on here :-P Anyway, one selections for tonight. Blackpool (H) vs Liverpool. Odds 3.80 £100 level stake, £762.44 Ansell Stake I will run the bank – and results as of this fixture because running it from 2004 is not fair as the results (although accurate) were never published. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pepen Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system Hi KThom! First of all good luck with this (semi)new system of yours, I remember following your correct score thread and the previous Ansell home wins some time ago..was sad to see 'em disappear If you don't mind me asking, is the software you mention of your own making or something you've gotten elsewhere? I seem to recall you being full of statistical and programming knowledge. Another question for your selection criteria is the H2H meetings. Personally, I don't see why the H2H should be significant in a system, based on the heavy fluctuations in some clubs with regards to the managers (thereby the changing tactics) and players etc? For example, wouldn't a lot of your selections with Liverpool being one of the sides be biased towards Liverpool, if the H2H's have anything to say (due to them being much better just a few years back)? I know there are other variables influencing your calculation of the 'true odds' but I'd imagine there was some negative effect from the H2H's.. Sorry for the load of questions, I just thought I'd block your thread before the horde of worshipping followers arrive when the system gets profitable :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system Thanks for the kind words Pepen. The original software i purchased and have modified it for my own benefit. The H2H meetings are weighted so they only account for 15% of the total factoring, with the most recent game more heavily weighted than the one 5 seasons ago. Lets see how we go :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system Good start. The system looks interesting, and I'd tend to agree with you on staking here. I'm using a staking plan for my system whereby the more value there is, the higher stakes, and it's working well, delivering significantly higher yield than flat stakes. I'm not au fait with the Ansell criteria, where might I read more about it? Anyway, good luck, I'll be following this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Jack Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system sjt91 I think KThoms' referring to Tony Ansell, details of his staking plan is here: http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/Nov/TheAnsellStakingPlan/tabid/851/Default.aspx And good luck KThom, a great start last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system Fat jack beat me to it. Indeed the link to follow is http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/Nov/TheAnsellStakingPlan/tabid/851/Default.aspx Fantastic result to open the live system last night. No selections tonight or tomorrow but potential selections for Saturday which I'll post late Friday or early Saturday. Bit concerned that the law of averages will show a dip in returns coming up, as including non published games in 2011 the ansell yield is at 247.35% and 100% s/r from 6 games - where I'm "only" looking for a 20% yield and 55% s/r Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system To make the results and selections more mreasurable - I will use only Bet365 odds, so better odds may well be available. If the system can produce a + yield with a selective bookmaker then it is definitely a good system. I will adjust the Blackpool odds / stake accordingly. The odds can be proofed using football-data and the stake using the ansell calculation Selections for today - all using £100 flat, and Ansell calculation on games above 1.80 in brackets Chelsea 1.29 (£0) Notts Forest 1.62 (£0) Sheff Weds 1.91 (£41.28) Empoli 1.80 Albinoleffe 2.00 (£75.63) The odds are the ones available now with Bet 365. I will amend to the ones published on football-data after the result for consistency of recording purposes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Ansell home win system Results to date: Flat Stakes Season Games Profit Staked Yield Grand Total 6 £251.00 £600.00 41.83% Ansell Stakes Season Games Profit Staked Yield Grand Total 3 £2,017.92 £879.35 229.48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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