Flat racing 12th Jan

[chris34]

2.25 Lingfield Efistorm remains on a very interesting mark as I commented on recently but he has failed to spark on recent starts and needs to show something before getting involved. Garstang ran an interesting race since he hadnt been seen for 190 days last time out but probably remains on a mark high enough to hold him against progressive sorts like Picansort and Estonia. Picansort will be saver in the race having won a 5f maiden at kempton and then finishing a little tamely over 6f back there, could be more at home back over 5f and certainly open to more yet and mark doesnt look beyond him given correct conditions. Estonia has gone the right way since going handicapping having won well over CD 2 times, bumped into potentially well treated Yourelikemefrank last time out under a penalty and could go one better again today off a 1lb lower mark and Gannon remaining in hot form in the saddle! 0.4pt win Estonia 2/1 vc 0.2pt win Picansort 4/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing 12th Jan 4.45 Kempton Scary Movie won a seller last time out and joins a capable yard but a 6lb penalty back in handicap looks extremely harsh. Turjuman worth a second glance having won round here twice in the spring but that was over 12f and certainly did shape as if he needed a few furlongs more last time out in claimer over 10f. Kidlat did disappoint last time out like many do after winning apprentice handicaps but handicapper giving him more than a chance not changing his mark, and has previously won off a 5lb higher mark over CD although draw not been that kind for a front runner. Strike force is slightly better drawn and could give Kidlat something to think about just pipped at the post last time out and that form is workng out reasonably well and handicapper could have taken a harsher only putting a progressive sort up 2lb again inform Gannon takes the ride only concern would be he drifted dramatically in market before being declared a non runner last week! 0.2pt win Kidlat 5/2 bet365 0.3pt win Strike Force 5/1 bet365 5.15 Kempton At last a decent looking handicap that could spring a surprise, I am perhaps surprised to see Stratton Banker as big as he is knowing what his trainer can be like for a gamble but I am still not interested shaping as if 6f was ideal when winning over 5f time before last but didnt get a race run to suit last time out over 6f but now goes back to 5f I am just not sure that will suit again. The yards other runner Earlsmedic can be quite useful on AW but has done all his winning over further aswell and doesnt look to need 5f. Feelin Foxy keeps bettering herself at the moment but a further 6lb penalty looks even tougher in a strong field although well draw to front run and cant see much other front rank pace! So 3 for me in this competitive handicap, the smallest stake going on Ray Of Joy who is worth another chance on the back of the win on her penultimate start staying on well to get up, only 1lb higher last time out when not getting any sort of run when looking full of running last time and was heavily eased and could be worth another chance of revised mark and switch to 5f perhaps no bad thing and wide draw not over hinderance for an exaggerated hold up performer. Grudge continues to run very respectably last twice having won 2 handicaps early in the winter, mark remains static because of consistency although handicap could easily have added a 1lb or 2 by now and therefore giving him a chance to better himself and in current form he could easily be upto posting a personal best. For me my main bet will be Absa Lutte who was well backed unsurprisingly from a massive price last time out to run best race for a while under this jockey who takes off a very handy 7lb further to the massive 5lb reduction in handicap mark (although only recieved 4lb of that as is 1lb out of handicap) and course record is very impressive 4 from 8 never running a bad race around here well drawn in stall 11 looks poised for another big run. 0.1pt win Ray Of Joy 12/1 vc 0.1pt win Grudge 8/1 pp 0.3pt win Absa Lutte 5/1 bet365