Faxy Fowler Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I've been thinking about golf a bit and wondered whether there is any money to be made from it. I've set up an Excel spreadsheet which allows me to simulate a golf tournament using a ratings set 10,000 or so times over and gives probabilities on all golfers to win, finish in the top five, top 10 or for that matter, miss the cut. I'm still playing around with it a bit but I have put together some selections for the two year opening events this year. I'm also laying some golfers to not finish in the top ten; it would seem like suicide to lay golfers not to win at high odds, even using a paper trail, which this very much is. Its also not based around who I necessarily think will win a tournament, but those who seem to have the most value and will probably toss in the odd outsider here and there as a result. All odds will be those available on Betfair at the time of posting. Week 1 US TOUR - Tournament of Champions 1pt win (my derived odds in brackets) Steve Stricker @ 17.00 (6.20) Matt Kuchar @ 20.00 (8.29) Ben Crane @ 48.00 (22.68) Heath Slocum @ 100 (48.54) 2pt lays not to finish in top 10 Geoff Ogilvy @ 2.00 (2.89) Stuart Appleby @ 3.6 (13.39) Notes: Ogilvy and Appleby seem to have come up as lays possibly because this is a tournament they have both won in the past and they are getting a lot of backing as a result. I haven't really got a tool for factoring that into the equation. EUROPEAN TOUR - Africa Open 2pt win Retief Goosen 6.40 (2.61) Charl Schwartzel 6.60 (4.50) 0.5pt win Peter Gustafson 390 (208.33) George Wilson 360.00 (250.00) 1pt lay not to finish in top 10 Jaco Van Zyl @ 4.4 (47.39) Notes: Louis Oosthuizen hasn't worked out as value in my book on his own, but my combined odds on he added to those chosen to win would be around 1.25, whereas Betfair run a "Big Three" Market enabling them to be backed at around 2.26. Those odds look insanely generous to me and if you look at the field as a whole, its difficult to imagine any winner outside of those three. I would add, I haven't really got a clue who Gustafson or Wilson are :lol but given in 10,000 runs of the event they combined for 88 wins they can't be complete duffers so at those odds I see no harm in putting a half point on each. As a final bit of fun, J.J. Senekal, Matthew Nixon and Ryan Hood failed to make a single cut in 30,000 attempts. So if the three of them qualify for the weekend, I'll probably emigrate or something. :rollin 14 pts staked in total - fingers crossed for the results..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Golf value thread Sounds interesting, will definitely be following. Despite the fact I haven'e got the first clue about golf, good luck though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Golf value thread Cheers. Doesn't look like a great start, Goosen is two over after round 1 and one of my picks, who is last in the field, I even got his flippin' name wrong - its George Murray, not Wilson. Told you I didn't have a clue who he was. Added to which van Zyl who I've backed not to finish top 10 is 4th. Maybe its me who knows nothing about golf..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Golf value thread Round 2 update US - I saw Ogilvy pulled out before the event so he is a non-bet. Appleby has dropped off to third last after a good start, which is making for a decent lay selection, and only Slocum of the win bets has dropped away, with Stricker in T4, Crane T7 and Kuchar T12. Europe - Not looking that great, Van Zyl in 4th is going unhelpfully well, Goosen properly flopped missing the cut at remarkable odds, yet Matthew Nixon who has no world ranking is T24. Schwartzel is my only win bet who is still in, 4 shots off the lead early third round so he might save the day yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Golf value thread Oosthuizen took the Africa Open after a play off then, Van Zyl got his top ten finish and Schwartzel was out by a shot. So nothing for that, albeit the Big Three bet just about came in by a whisker. Stricker is tied for the lead going into the final round so the success of the whole weekend is riding on him by the looks of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Golf value thread US TOUR - Tournament of Champions 1pt win Steve Stricker @ 17.00 -1pt Matt Kuchar @ 20.00 -1pt Ben Crane @ 48.00 -1pt Heath Slocum @ 100 -1pt 2pt lays not to finish in top 10 Geoff Ogilvy @ 2.00 WD Stuart Appleby @ 3.6 +1.9pts EUROPEAN TOUR - Africa Open 2pt win Retief Goosen 6.40 -1pt Charl Schwartzel 6.60 -1pt 0.5pt win Peter Gustafson 390 -0.5pt George Wilson 360.00 -0.5pt 1pt lay not to finish in top 10 Jaco Van Zyl @ 4.4 -3.4pt WEEK 1 TOTAL PTS: -8.5 pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Golf value thread WEEK 2 - US TOUR - SONY OPEN HAWAII I am giving the Joburg Open a miss as there are about 200 golfers half of whom will have no record to go off. At least in this event most golfers have a track record against which assessment can be made. Just going with backs for this week; 12 pts total staked all of these to win. 2 pts win Steve Stricker @ 9.80 (my odds 5.97) Matt Kuchar @ 19.50 (my odds 8.98) KJ Choi @ 36.00 (my odds 18.66) Bo Van Pelt @ 65 (my odds 16.75) 1 pt win Fredrik Jacobson @ 280 (my odds 113.64) Camilo Villegas @ 65 (my odds 25.58) Ricky Barnes @ 140 (my odds 46.51) 0.5 pt win Tag Ridings @ 540 (my odds 181.82) Chris Kirk @ 400 (my odds 103.09) Thing about this is its only going to take one winner, so patience required. Will probably only do European Tour events when the number of entrants and overall knowhow makes the book look realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Golf value thread How exactly do you simulate a tournament btw? I understand if you don't want to give your system away or whatever, but is it just based on past stats and probabilities to give you the simulations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Golf value thread It is really, it involves taking a series of player ratings, putting them Excel, then doing all kinds of copys and pastes. In the space of around 5 minutes a tournament can then be played 10,000 times at random and Excel formulas can be used to count the number of times a player wins. In 10,000 runnings of this event here is the number of wins by all those who won at least 10 times. Steve Stricker 1675 Matt Kuchar 1113 Jim Furyk 657 Bo Van Pelt 597 K.J. Choi 536 Ernie Els 492 Camilo Villegas 391 Zach Johnson 376 Tim Clark 364 Robert Allenby 254 Justin Rose 245 Jason Day 223 Ricky Barnes 215 Charles Howell 213 Heath Slocum 209 Adam Scott 191 Kevin Na 178 Brendon De Jonge123 Charlie Wi 103 Chris Kirk 97 Tom Gillis 90 Jeff Overton 89 Fredrik Jacobson88 Spencer Levin 79 John Senden 79 Vijay Singh 79 Jerry Kelly 78 Steve Marino 67 Tag Ridings 55 Chad Campbell 55 Carl Pettersson 52 Jason Dufner 50 Pat Perez 46 D.J. Trahan 45 Brian Gay 44 Chris DiMarco 43 Justin Leonard 41 Anthony Kim 38 Jonathan Byrd 36 Wen Chong Liang 33 Marc Leishman 32 Aaron Baddeley 30 Fabian Gomez 25 Joe Durant 25 Davis Love III 23 Jason Bohn 21 Shaun Micheel 19 Michael Putnam 19 Chad Collins 16 Matt Jones 16 Michael Connell 16 David Mathis 15 Paul Stankowski 15 Hunter Haas 14 Jamie Lovemark 14 Tim Petrovic 14 William McGirt 13 Ryuji Imada 13 Arjun Atwal 11 Boo Weekley 11 Brendan Steele 11 Peter Tomasulo 10 Michael Sim 10 Tommy Gainey 10 Webb Simpson 10 The theories should be capable of extending to the Nationwide Tour; who knows what value could turn up with some of the second tier events. I'm quite happy to post these 10,00 running stats if they are thought to be of any use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Golf value thread This event has been delayed and 36 holes will be played tonight. Leaders - 10 under 2 pts win Steve Stricker @ 9.80 (my odds 5.97) T32 -4 Matt Kuchar @ 19.50 (my odds 8.98) T6 -7 KJ Choi @ 36.00 (my odds 18.66) MISSED CUT Bo Van Pelt @ 65 (my odds 16.75) MISSED CUT 1 pt win Fredrik Jacobson @ 280 (my odds 113.64) T12 -6 Camilo Villegas @ 65 (my odds 25.58) MISSED CUT Ricky Barnes @ 140 (my odds 46.51) DID NOT START 0.5 pt win Tag Ridings @ 540 (my odds 181.82) T20 -5 Chris Kirk @ 400 (my odds 103.09) T20 -5 So 4 picks currently in the top 20, and 5 within 6 shots of the lead at half way - hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Golf value thread Nothing doing this week as Mark Wilson wins the Sony title. Kuchar tied 5th, Stricker tied 9th, Ridings tied 13th as good as it got. TOTAL PTS WEEK 2: -12 RUNNING TOTAL: -20.5. Still confident of turning this around, early days. I will pitch in for the Abu Dhabi and Bob Hope events on Wednesday, maybe consider a couple of top 5/top 10 calls this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Golf value thread WEEK 3 - ABU DHABI OPEN Lee Westwood is absolutely monumental value for this in my book. 16pts risked. 2pt win Lee Westwood 9.60 (3.58) Retief Goosen 50.00 (18.35) Phil Mickelson 26 (15.02) Peter Hanson 44.00 (27.04) 1pt win Charl Schwartzel 36.00 (25.00) Gregory Bourdy 370.00 (88.50) Joost Luiten 180.00 (62.89) Edoardo Molinari 65.00 (39.53) Matteo Manassero 90.00 (64.10) Richard Green 140.00 (86.21) Alejandro Canizares 420.00 (303.03) Maarten Lafeber 800.00 (476.19) Bit short of time so will look at the Bob Hope event tomorrow assuming I get the chance before it starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Golf value thread We won't do the Bob Hope as it started yesterday. I should have realised, its a five rounder....:wall OK but its clear that previous performance on a course is something I can't dismiss. So the ratings from now on will take a combination of World Ranking (35%) Sagarin Index Performance (35%) Past three year averages at course (30%). This is going to throw up a more interesting range of possibilities I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.