Home Underdog Asia Bet

[Johnnytsang]

Hello, everyone! This is my first post in this forum, and I look forward to learn from the experts here. I want to find a simple system. My basic assumptions are: (1) the bookies have pool of experts and have more data/information to analysis each game, you won't be better than the bookies to evaluate the fair odds. Besides, there are hundreds if not thousands of bookies, any unfair odds will soon be eliminated by the arbitrator. Any unreasonable odd can only exist for a reason that you don't know. (2) In the long run, majority of the punters are loser and the bookies are winners. (3) Most of the punters bet for favorites. It is human nature to guest for the winner, but not the loser. (4) So the bookies will drift the odds to the disadvantage of the majority and hence it is better to bet for the underdogs. (5) Home advantage of underdogs are always overlooked by the punters who think their favourite team can easily overcome the away disadvantages. In conclusion, my betting system is to bet the home underdog when the away favourite team odd (Canbet) at 1.7-2.2, using Asia bet either +0.5 or +0.25 with odd >1.9, for all league matches (excluding the cup and international). I have started the system for about 2 months, 200 matches, hit rate about 52%, only a small profit less than 1%, not as good as I expect. Any comments and criticism on my system are welcome !