Artem Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 HELLO! I will start my first thread here, in Systems & Strategy Forum. General idea of my system: Searching football matches from all over the world with short priced favourite and back the favourite's win at half time. At first time it will ve simple - I find team whose price to win the match is between 1.10 and 1.70 and just back them on Half Time market. Easy, isn't it? Yes, butt the main idea of opening this tread in this forum is trying to improve this system. In process of running it I will add extra factors and use extra stats, for example percentage of goals scored in 1st half or anything else. I also will change needed favourites' prices if it will be necessary. So, I want to create as good as possible system. That's why this thread is called "part 1" - if I change something in it's rules I will start another thread, but called "part 2". Part one is the first stage. Hope I've explained the main idea fine and can move forvard:ok Bank: Will start with 1000 pts. Every bet will be 5% of current bank stake. I won't use real money before this system became succesful and profitable on paper. I will change bankroll rules in next parts if it will be necessary. If I lose all money I will automatically start new part with new bank and changed rules of bet selection or bank building. Prices will be taken from Betfair (including 5% comission). So, that is all I had to say about my plans. I must add that EVERY comments or questions are welcomed. That's time to wish good luck:hope and start finding first selections. PS. Please, sorry for my quite bad English. If you see bad mistakes in my posts, please feel free to say me about it:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Be careful! Half time ends in draw much more frequently than a whole match! Have you done backtesting? Are you sure it is worth trying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Be careful! Half time ends in draw much more frequently than a whole match! Have you done backtesting? Are you sure it is worth trying? No, I didn't test this system before. I'll test and improve it in here. Thanks for caution:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Can't find macthes for today and tomorrow, think I'll start system at 1st of January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 HAPPY NEW YEAR!:cheers:cow:cheers Let's make first selections. 1. Man.City (HT)@1.74 (price to win the match is 1.3) vs Blackpool 2. Tottenham (HT)@2.06 (1.54) vs Fulham 3. Nottingham Forest (HT)@2.32 (1.61) vs Barnsley 4. Liverpool (HT)@2.26 (1.68) vs Bolton 5. WBA vs Man.Utd (HT)@2.12 (1.64) 6. Hearts (HT)@2.28 (1.66) vs Hibernian 7. Chesterfield (HT)@2.14 (1.57) vs Stockport 8. Southamton (HT)@2.06 (1.5) vs Exeter 50 Pts each bet.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 1. Man.City (HT)@1.74 (price to win the match is 1.3) vs Blackpool 2. Tottenham (HT)@2.06 (1.54) vs Fulham 3. Nottingham Forest (HT)@2.32 (1.61) vs Barnsley 4. Liverpool (HT)@2.26 (1.68) vs Bolton 5. WBA vs Man.Utd (HT)@2.12 (1.64) 6. Hearts (HT)@2.28 (1.66) vs Hibernian 7. Chesterfield (HT)@2.14 (1.57) vs Stockport 8. Southamton (HT)@2.06 (1.5) vs Exeter two losers already... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 From the first two games, looks like it could be more profitable to back favourites who are drawing at half time to win at full time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 From the first two games' date=' looks like it could be more profitable to back favourites who are drawing at half time to win at full time...[/quote'] Maybe I'll try it later.:) 1. Man.City (HT)@1.74 (price to win the match is 1.3) vs Blackpool +35.15 pts 2. Tottenham (HT)@2.06 (1.54) vs Fulham +50.35 pts 3. Nottingham Forest (HT)@2.32 (1.61) vs Barnsley -50 pts 4. Liverpool (HT)@2.26 (1.68) vs Bolton -50 pts 5. WBA vs Man.Utd (HT)@2.12 (1.64) -50 pts 6. Hearts (HT)@2.28 (1.66) vs Hibernian -50 pts 7. Chesterfield (HT)@2.14 (1.57) vs Stockport -50 pts 8. Southamton (HT)@2.06 (1.5) vs Exeter+50.35 pts Poor results. Bets: 8 W/L: 3/5 Loss: -114.15 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 885.85 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Today's selections: 9. Barcelona(HT)@1.33 (1.10) vs Levante 10. Chelsea (HT)@1.71 (1.28) vs Villa 11. Sevilla (HT)@2.3 (1.61) vs Osasuna 12. Valencia (HT)@2.32 (1.67) vs Espanyol 13. Betis (HT)@1.97 (1.43) vs Gimnastic 14. Porto (HT)@1.78 (1.3) vs Nacional 15. Benfica(HT)@1.85 (1.34) vs Maritimo 45 pts each bet. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnbarnes Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 I'm sorry, I'm all for encouraging innovative ideas, but this is no more of a betting 'system' than me saying I'm only going to bet on Tuesday's because that's the most profitable day for teams priced 12/1 or bigger. No research and no evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 I'm sorry, I'm all for encouraging innovative ideas, but this is no more of a betting 'system' than me saying I'm only going to bet on Tuesday's because that's the most profitable day for teams priced 12/1 or bigger. No research and no evidence. Yes, but as I said in 1st post here, that's only first step of this system, now I am just simply backing favorites without any reasonings, but then, in next parts, I'll make a research and correct mistakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 9. Barcelona(HT)@1.33 (1.10) vs Levante-45 pts 10. Chelsea (HT)@1.71 (1.28) vs Villa-45 pts 11. Sevilla (HT)@2.3 (1.61) vs Osasuna+55.5 pts 12. Valencia (HT)@2.32 (1.67) vs Espanyol -45 pts 13. Betis (HT)@1.97 (1.43) vs Gimnastic+41.4 pts 14. Porto (HT)@1.78 (1.3) vs Nacional-45 pts 15. Benfica(HT)@1.85 (1.34) vs Maritimo+36.3 pts -46.8 pts Bets: 15 W/L: 6/9 Loss: -160.95 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 839.05 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 16. Peterborough(HT)@2.24 (1.7) v Walsall 17. Villarreal(HT)@2.08 (1.54) v Almeria 18. Atl Madrid(HT)@2.2 (1.64) v Santander 42 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 16. Peterborough(HT)@2.24 (1.7) v Walsall -42 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Mind if I ask what prompted you to go for the idea of backing favourites to be winning at HT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Mind if I ask what prompted you to go for the idea of backing favourites to be winning at HT? I just want to find out, where can I get value from HT market, in backing favourites or in laying them. This simple system I'm running now shows that just blind backing them isn't profitable so far, but 18 bets of course isn't as long distance as we need to be sure about it. 16. Peterborough(HT)@2.24 (1.7) v Walsall-42 pts 17. Villarreal(HT)@2.08 (1.54) v Almeria+43 pts 18. Atl Madrid(HT)@2.2 (1.64) v Santander -42 Pts -41 pts Bets: 18 W/L: 7/11 Loss: -201.95 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 799.05 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 19. Man Utd (HT)@1.86 (1.4) v Stoke 40 pts Man Utd's half time home form is 10-0-0 Stoke's away half time form is 0-4-5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 19. Man Utd (HT)@1.86 (1.4) v Stoke + 33 pts Bets: 19 W/L: 8/11 Loss: -168 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 832 pts Outstanding Man Utd's home HT stats:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 20. AEK Athens (HT)@2 (1.4) vs Kerkyra AEK (home) 4-2-1 Kerkyra (away) 2-2-3 21. Dep.Coruna vs Barcelona (HT)@1.82 (1.37) Dep. Cotuna (home)3-3-2 Barcelona (away) 7-1-0 22. Olympiakos(HT)@1.73 (1.31) vs Iraklis Olympiakos (home)6-0-1 Iraklis (away) 1-5-1 23. Wolves vs Chelsea (HT)@2.14 (1.58) Wolves (home) 4-2-4 Chelsea (away)2-4-4 40 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 20. AEK Athens (HT)@2 (1.4) vs Kerkyra-40 21. Dep.Coruna vs Barcelona (HT)@1.82 (1.37)*-40 22. Olympiakos(HT)@1.73 (1.31) vs Iraklis+29.2 23. Wolves vs Chelsea (HT)@2.14 (1.58)-40 * there was a mistake, played Athletic Bilbao not Dep. la Coruna. -90.8 pts Bets: 23 W/L: 9/14 Loss: -258.8 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 741.2 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Didn't have enough time for this system, so few days without any selections. Today's ones are: 24. Huddersfield(HT)@2.2 (1.54) vs Plymouth 25. Heart (HT)@2.24 (1.61) vs St Johnstone 26. Galatasaray(HT)@1.54 (1.17) vs Beyp Sekespor 27. Egypt(HT)@1.41 (1.15) vs Burundi 37 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 24. Huddersfield(HT)@2.2 (1.54) vs Plymouth+79,8 25. Heart (HT)@2.24 (1.61) vs St Johnstone-70 26. Galatasaray(HT)@1.54 (1.17) vs Beyp Sekespor-70 27. Egypt(HT)@1.41 (1.15) vs Burundi+27.3 -32.9 Bets: 27 W/L: 11/16 Loss: -291.7 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 708.3 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 28. Benfica (HT)@1.68 (1.26) vs Olhanense 29. Barcelona (HT)@1.47 (1.15) vs Betis 30. APOEL (HT)@2 (1.48) vs Appolon 31. Anorthosis (HT)@1.5 (1.17) vs APEP 32. Hamilton vs Celtic (HT)@1.84 (1.36) 33. Varzim (HT)@2 (1.47) vs Merileinense 34. Palermo (HT)@2.3 (1.69) vs Chievo 35 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 28. Benfica (HT)@1.68 (1.26) vs Olhanense+22.6 29. Barcelona (HT)@1.47 (1.15) vs Betis+15.6 30. APOEL (HT)@2 (1.48) vs Appolon-35 31. Anorthosis (HT)@1.5 (1.17) vs APEP+16.6 32. Hamilton vs Celtic (HT)@1.84 (1.36)-35 33. Varzim (HT)@2 (1.47) vs Merileinense-35 34. Palermo (HT)@2.3 (1.69) vs Chievo-35 -85.2 pts Bets: 34 W/L: 14/20 Loss: -376.9 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 623.1 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 35. Juventus (HT)@2.24 (1.59) vs Catania 36. Real Madrid (HT)@1.74 (1.33) vs Athletico Madrid 37. Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahce (HT)@1.73 (1.29) 38. Syria vs Japan (HT)@1.93 (1.46) 32 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 35. Juventus (HT)@2.24 (1.59) vs Catania+37.7 36. Real Madrid (HT)@1.74 (1.33) vs Athletico Madrid-32 37. Malatyaspor vs Fenerbahce (HT)@1.73 (1.29)-32 38. Syria vs Japan (HT)@1.93 (1.46)+28.3 +2 pts Bets: 38 W/L: 16/22 Loss: -374.9 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 625.1 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 39. Bahrain (HT)@1.45 (1.18) vs India 40. Egypt (HT)@1.5 (1.17) vs Kenya 41. Siena (HT)@2.1 (1.51) vs Pescara 42. Waalwijk (HT)@2.24 (1.64) vs FC Eindhoven 32 pts each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 39. Bahrain (HT)@1.45 (1.18) vs India+13,7 40. Egypt (HT)@1.5 (1.17) vs Kenya+15.2 41. Siena (HT)@2.1 (1.51) vs Pescara-32 42. Waalwijk (HT)@2.24 (1.64) vs FC Eindhoven-32 -34.6 pts Bets: 42 W/L: 18/24 Loss: -409.5 pts Starting bank: 1000 pts New bank: 590.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artem Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 43. Almere vs Waalwijk (HT)@1.92 (1.47) 44. Besiktas (HT)@1.77 (1.27) vs Bucaspor 45. Dordecht (HT)@1.94 (1.46) vs Fortuna Sittard 46. FC Eindhoven (HT)@2.2 (1.63) vs Telsar 47. Hamburg (HT)@2.2 (1.61) vs Frankfurt 48. Livorno (HT)@2.18 (1.58) vs Albinoleffe 49. Zvolle (HT)@1.79 (1.35) vs AGOVV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Artem's "Backing Favourites at Half Time" System | part 1 Artem, what are you doing? You lost already more than 40% of your bank. It wont fly. Forget it. Eto polnaja x-nia:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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