What's most important for analysing over/unders market

[skinnyman9000]

Right, I'm currently trialing an over/under 2.5 goals system, it is performing well, but 4 from the last 4. Now, I use the form from the previous 5 games, checking the average goals and whether 1 or both teams scored. Now, I check the previous 5 games, regardless of whether they're home or away. I'm wary of this, as some teams play very differently at home. My question is, do peope think I should be looking at the past 5 games? Or should I concentrate on the home teams last 5 home games, and the same for away? I know it's performing well as it is, just curious as to peoples thoughts

[Jase82]

What's most important for analysing over/unders market I tend to look at both myself. i.e. if a side have been conceding / not scoring shed loads home and away over a period of 5/6 games, I think it's fair to assume they are being troubled in that department. But, I use this in conjunction with the opposition's own recent form, or tendancy to concede / score. If I was looking at the home side, and noticed they were conceding a fair bit, I'd then look at the away side to see how they were performing away. If most of their games appeared to be tight and underish, I wouldn't neccessarily select the fixture as an over based on the home sides form. I might look at the odds too, to see if there is value in the unders. For nstance, if team A had conceded 10 goals in their last 5, yet Team B had been tight over the course of the last five games, the odds might be around 1.50 - 1.60 for the overs, which could point toward value in the unders. You also need to take into account the context of the fixture. If the fixture is deep into a season (which is the best time to start taking advantage of these markets) it is worth looking at where the two sides lay in the table, and taking into account the context of the fixture. If two sides lay 3rd and 4th in the table, and their recent fixtures have been dripping in goals, it might not neccessarily point to another overs contest because it could prove to be a cagey affair with neither side willing to risk losing to a direct rival. It's worth also gaining a basic understand of the league in question and the teams strengths and weaknesses because different sides will historically play a different type of football against some than others. If you look at the EPL for example as being split into three different "mini leagues" just because Chelsea have had four out of five overs whilst playing teams from the third tier, doesn't mean their next fixture (against a side from the top tier will follow that trend) As greater knowledge is sought of a particular league (I use the EPL only as an example) it would be up to you to decide which sides fit into which tier. Most leagues are often split into at least a couple of mini leagues - Unless you're looking at the English Championship, which is totally open. It's also worth looking at the historical percentage of overs / unders in the particular league you have chosen to concentrate on. That often determines where the value lies as well. Overall you are correct - Most teams set themselves up differently when they play home or away. Hope all this helps, as it's just off the top of my head :ok