sadurrec Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 This is an NBA totals betting system. I will analyze the games, I'm going to calculate how much will be the probable totals and the probability of under/over. I will collect the similar games in the current and previous seasons. These games' odds are similar to the selected game's odds. The difference between the odds will be about 20%. From these games I'll select where the opponents are in a similar Under/Over category in the 2009/10 season. Then I calculate the probability of Under/Over bookies totals. From these games I calculate average totals. I calculate the difference between my average totals and the bookies totals to work out my stake: (Probability is more the 60 %) 0-6 point difference : 5 units 7-12 point difference : 10 units 13-18 point difference : 15 units 19- point difference : 20 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadurrec Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system For example: Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics Odds: 1.65 2.20 (bookies totals: 193.5) 1. step Atlanta Hawks similar games in this and last seasons: Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 99 83 1.61 Atlanta Hawks L.A.Lakers 109 92 1.80 Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 86 84 1.78 Atlanta Hawks San Antonio Spurs 119 114 1.59 Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Bobcats 93 92 1.39 Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 103 111 1.62 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 1.53 Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Bobcats 103 89 1.32 Atlanta Hawks Oklahoma City Thunder 91 94 1.37 Atlanta Hawks Phoenix Suns 102 101 1.41 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 1.56 Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 84 95 1.70 Atlanta Hawks Utah Jazz 96 83 1.36 Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 76 93 1.61 Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets 105 103 1.32 Atlanta Hawks Portland TrailBlazers 99 95 1.59 Atlanta Hawks Denver Nuggets 125 100 1.64 Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards 100 89 1.35 Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 93 98 1.67 Atlanta Hawks Utah Jazz 86 90 1.62 Atlanta Hawks Milwaukee Bucks 91 108 1.34 Atlanta Hawks Phoenix Suns 114 118 1.40 Boston Celtics similar games in this and last seasons: Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 90 105 2.03 Utah Jazz Boston Celtics 110 97 2.53 Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 93 102 2.51 Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 86 84 2.02 Denver Nuggets Boston Celtics 114 105 2.57 Portland TrailBlazers Boston Celtics 76 96 2.30 L.A.Lakers Boston Celtics 86 87 2.27 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 2.47 Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 96 94 2.40 Toronto Raptors Boston Celtics 107 114 1.79 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 2.42 Miami Heat Boston Celtics 106 112 1.84 Phoenix Suns Boston Celtics 116 98 2.61 San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics 83 90 1.91 Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics 89 95 2.64 Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 89 87 2.30 Oklahoma City Thunder Boston Celtics 83 92 2.09 2. step Atlanta Hawks similar Home Under/Over Category teams: Dallas Mavericks Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies New Orleans Hornets New York Knicks Orlando Magic Washington Wizards Minnesota Timberwolves Atlanta Hawks San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers L.A.Lakers Miami Heat Oklahoma City Thunder Milwaukee Bucks Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics similar Away Under/Over Category teams: Houston Rockets Sacramento Kings Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks L.A.Lakers New Jersey Nets Orlando Magic Milwaukee Bucks Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons Portland TrailBlazers Boston Celtics San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Washington Wizards 3. step I select games where the opponents are in a similar Under/Over category. Atlanta Hawks games Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 99 83 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks L.A.Lakers 109 92 OVER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 86 84 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks San Antonio Spurs 119 114 OVER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 103 111 OVER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Cleveland Cavaliers 84 95 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic 76 93 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets 105 103 OVER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Portland TrailBlazers 99 95 OVER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards 100 89 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Dallas Mavericks 93 98 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Milwaukee Bucks 91 108 OVER 193.5 Boston Celtics games Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 90 105 OVER 193.5 Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 93 102 OVER 193.5 Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics 86 84 UNDER 193.5 L.A.Lakers Boston Celtics 86 87 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 100 91 UNDER 193.5 Orlando Magic Boston Celtics 96 94 UNDER 193.5 Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics 93 85 UNDER 193.5 Miami Heat Boston Celtics 106 112 OVER 193.5 San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics 83 90 UNDER 193.5 Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics 89 95 UNDER 193.5 Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics 89 87 UNDER 193.5 Oklahoma City Thunder Boston Celtics 83 92 UNDER 193.5 4. step Average totals: 189 5. step UNDER/OVER Probability UNDER 193.5 65.38 % OVER 193.5 34.62 % 6. step difference: 193.5 - 189 = 4.5 -> stake: 5 units Under 193.5 Score: Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics 76 -99 (totals: 175 WON) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadurrec Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system Home Away Under% Over% Pick: Calc Average. " align="center" width="92">Calc Average. Stake: Boston Celtics New Jersey 33.33 % 66.67 % OVER189.5 196.5 10 Memphis Grizzlies Detroit Pistons 35.29 % 64.71 % OVER195.5 202 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system Have you done any back testig on system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system 0-2 but don't let it disappoint you. You can fade it, i mean play in reverse. Lets try it tomorrow ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system Hey sadurrec I did some research a while back on overs and unders and found that where the total was 189.5 or less, the unders were far more successful. Where the total was 205.5 or more, the overs were more successful. I never bet on the totals in between as the results were too unpredictable. Unfortunately, I have no stats to back this up, just a frustrating memory. lol :wall aarr magoo - youve done it again !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadurrec Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Re: NBA totals betting system Yes, I tested my system, it was successful. But it was a very bad start. Home Away Under% Over% Pick: Calc.Ave Stake: Utah Jazz Milwaukee Bucks 14.29 % 85.71 % OVER188 204.5 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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