Theory on using multiple systems.

[Donkson]

I'm a bit of a lurker on the forums to be honest, but I've started to develop a couple of my own systems, but came across an issue which I can't determine whether or not it would negatively effect yield. I have a home win system and a draw system, needless to say there are a number of overlaps. So in general, what would the approach be with overlapping in systems? My first thought is that you can't really pick and choose which bets to take from each system, as that basically defeats the purpose of the systems themselves. Does that therefore mean taking overlapping bets (eg backing a draw and home win) is the most +EV option?

[Shy10ck]

Re: Theory on using multiple systems. If there is value in both the home win and the draw result, then you should play both. Nothing wrong with that ;)

[slapdash]

Re: Theory on using multiple systems.

My first thought is that you can't really pick and choose which bets to take from each system, as that basically defeats the purpose of the systems themselves.

Why does that defeat the object of the systems? Isn't the object to make as much profit as you can? If you have a system that makes a profit, then great. But that doesn't mean that you have to follow the bets it indicates religiously if you have additional information that suggests that a particular system bet might not be +EV.

Does that therefore mean taking overlapping bets (eg backing a draw and home win) is the most +EV option?

It might be, but not necessarily. No system will take into account all possible factors, and if your draw system takes into account something that your home win system doesn't, and vice versa, then you have extra information about both bets that might suggest that they're less likely to be profitable than average system bets. On the other hand, it's certainly not impossible that both bets are +EV. Although it might be worth seeing if you can get better value by laying the away win in that case.

[Donkson]

Re: Theory on using multiple systems.

Why does that defeat the object of the systems? Isn't the object to make as much profit as you can?

Yeah of course, my main issue is determining which avenue is most +EV I guess. Good post though definitely helps, thanks.

[Pepen]

Re: Theory on using multiple systems. Not sure how you select your games to bet on, but I'd guess that the system that gives the best expected profit or +EV as you said yourself in the bet, is the one to follow, if both systems has come up with the same match? I mean, if your system says the odds should be 2 for the homewin and it's at 2.1 at the bookies, and your draw system says the draw should be at 3.4 instead of 4 at the bookies or smth, the obvious choice would be the draw imo, since theres (percentage wise) more value in taking the draw, in the long run? Correct me if I'm completely mistaken.. other than that, I'd say lay the away if the EV is close in the two systems.

[Shinigami]

Re: Theory on using multiple systems.

Yeah of course' date=' my main issue is determining which avenue is most +EV I guess. Good post though definitely helps, thanks.[/quote'] relying solely on a system that gives u the highest +EV may not be optimal, due to the effect of variance (length of winning/losing streak).. let's say your system for DRAW gives u higher +EV than the system for home win, the probability for draw (25% - 33%) can give rise to a relatively longer duration of losing streak, which runs a substantially higher risk of ruin... However, if you play both systems, your variance would be reduced, as the probability of home win is generally higher, thus reducing the frequency of losing streaks of various durations... By diluting your your higher +EV bet with a lower one (or even a slightly negative one), it may result in smaller returns long-term no doubt, but this reduces your risk of ruin...