iainfitzy Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 :welcome For the last few months I have been going through pages of excel data to try and find a profitable betting angle for football. I have done a lot of backfitting but I am hopeful that these selections can be profitable going forward. Wanted somewhere to post them and bounce some ideas around, hopefully this is the place?! I am starting with a bank of 50pts Selections for this weekend :- 1pt on West Brom to beat Stoke (2.1) 1pt on Hannover to beat Hamburg (3.2) 1pt on Leverkusen to beat Bayern (2.88) 1pt on Villarreal to beat Valencia (2.2) 1pt on Excelsior to beat Venlo (2.1) Therfore Starting bank = 50pts New bank = 45pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Hi Iain Fitzy (judging from the spelling of Iain, you must have some Scottish or Irish connections ;)) As your site isn't asking for any subscription, I think the link is OK. Just wondering what kind of selection system you used during back-testing..... recent performance (6 games, 4 games)?, goals for/against?, separating home and away performance?, relative strength of opposition? etc. etc. Now that you have gone public amongst the statistics freaks, I am afraid you will get a lot of questions like this. I think the only sure way of making a profit in this game is to "milk" the home wins. Anyway, good luck with your selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Hi Grex - its been removed so I think it was against the rules! Apologies. Use a number of variables really including :- Home Form Last Season Home Form this season Home form last 5 Home form last 10 Then the same for away... Results Vs Opponent (correct Home and away) Results Vs Opponent (both home and away) I have done a lot of back testing and basically I am looking for a ROI of 10-15% across each league, some will be better, some will be worse. By backtesting I have produced a good set of results that I am happy to share. Obviously with backtesting there are large risks, I would like to think that 3 years of testing gives a good indication. I have performed analysis on the EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga and Dutch league. Each has different variables influencing results....so I have treated each as a separate entity. I completed the Dutch analysis earlier and over the last 3 seasons there was 66 points staked 91.59 points returned 25.59 profit ROI = 38.8% Well above my expectations, I would be delighted with half of that. The dutch system in 10/11 however has produced a loss of 4.43 in the first 6 selections of the season. I have confidence that they will come good. Its a watch and see, hence why I wanted to post and get some feedback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Thanks for the information.... I am a bit worried that you have limited your back-testing to only 3 seasons.... I think most systems are based on >6 seasons. Anyway, good luck :hope Hi Grex - its been removed so I think it was against the rules! Apologies....... I am surprised your link has been removed..... perhaps you have to give credit to PL on your web-site.... I'm not sure. Perhaps one of the Moderators could advise :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) 1pt on West Brom to beat Stoke (2.1) -1 1pt on Hannover to beat Hamburg (3.2) +2.2 1pt on Leverkusen to beat Bayern (2.88) -1 1pt on Villarreal to beat Valencia (2.2) -1 1pt on Excelsior to beat Venlo (2.1) +1.1 Therfore...... Starting bank = 50pts Staked 5pts Returned 5.3pts P/L = +0.3 New Bank = 50.3pts Overall P/L = +0.3pts ROI = 6% Strike Rate = 40% Looking forward to next weekend.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) 1pt on Roda to beat Utrecht (2.25 - Victor Chandler) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Loser last night -0.7 overall Bets below - with odds and bookies (all still available) Palermo to beat Roma (2.67 - Pinnacle) Mainz to beat Nurnberg (1.95 - SBO) Hamburg to beat Stuttgart (2.09 - SBO) Hannover to beat Freiburg (2.26 - Pinnacle) Santander to beat La Coruna (2.27 - SBO) Bari to beat Cesena (2.02 - SBO) Big weekend, 6 bets, lets hope for profit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Annoyingly I tried to post these the other night and the site was down! Forgot all about it. 2 matches down already - so I wont include in the results. Selections are generally posted in my blog - http://footballformbook.blogspot.com/ Espanyol to bt Sp Gijon (1.73) Sociedad to bt Ath Bilbao (2.45) Cesena to bt Bologna (2.25) Napoli to bt Palermo (Evens) Sunderland to bt West Ham (Evens - long gone, will be settling at 1.91) Chievo to bt Roma - (3.25) Schalke to bt Bayern - (3.75) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) One bet for tonight 1pt on Bologna to beat Chievo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) 11/12/10 - Udinese to beat Fiorentina (2.15) 12/12/1o - Hercules to beat Malaga (2.2) 12/12/10 - Mainz to beat Schalke (2.55) 12/12/10 - Cagliari to beat Catania (2.1) 12/12/10 - Lecce to beat Chievo (3.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) 18/12/10 - Blackburn to beat West Ham (1.83 - SJ, PP) 18/12/10 - Toulouse to beat Lorient (2.1 - Sky,SJ,WH) 18/12/10 - Wolfsburg to beat Hoffenheim (2.25 - SJ) 19/12/10 - Stuttgart to beat Bayern Munich (4.0 WH,SJ) 20/12/10 - Santander to beat Hercules (2.05 - Tote) 19/12/10 - Lazio to beat Udinese (2 - B365, Sky) 19/12/10 - Sampdoria to beat Genoa (2.5 - SJ, VCBet, Sky) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Also - apologies I will tally up where I am with these - it has been a great start and hopefully it can continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Re: Football Formbook (homes) Hi Stats so far Staked - 25points P/L = +15.58points ROI = 62% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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