Home wins (for lack of a better title)

[KThom]

Hi all, well it’s been a long time since I’ve started a thread and stuck with it – so gonna have another bash at a system here which seems to show good potential. * Maybe I can be accused of data mining to come up with the credentials, but the results seem to speak for themselves. I tested the formula on the past 6 seasons games (using data and odds from football-data) and have paper trialled so far this season. * The basics of the system are backing home wins as singles. The selection process is quite complex and will remain guarded for the moment, but it revolves around teams with relatively high odds (above even on average) and attempting at least a 50% S/R. * So, for information purposes I have displayed the back tested results below (with the 10-11 season data being paper trialled so far). * Season Bets Wins Stake Profit Yield % S/RL 04-05 70 40 £7,000.00 £836.00 11.94 57.14% 05-06 52 30 £5,200.00 £907.00 17.44 57.69% 06-07 85 44 £8,500.00 £239.00 2.81 51.76% 07-08 101 54 £10,100.00 £650.00 6.44 53.47% 08-09 88 50 £8,800.00 £1,140.00 12.95 56.82% 09-10 90 52 £9,000.00 £1,089.00 12.10 57.78% 10-11 16 8 £1,600.00 £237.00 14.81 50.00% Total 502 278 £50,200.00 £5,098.00 10.16 55.38% * Firstly, what are people’s views on the data? I’m encouraged by the fact that the bet selection seems to be reasonably consistent, and each season has ended in profit. The data assumes a £100 level stake on each selection. * I will be “going live” with my selections this weekend – and although I will only be staking £10 on each, I will maintain the data as per before (£100 theoretical stakes). * Let’s see how we go, and perhaps I can indulge a bit more as we progress. * I will say that games on a Friday, could perhaps alter a selection for a Saturday so it is going to be hard for me to make accurate selections in one swoop. I don’t want to be accused of tampering with selections – and it is not in my interest to exclude losing selections, and include winning ones – so I will just have to try and make daily selections and be honest if / when I miss anything. * So, without further ado – selections for Saturday (pending Friday’s results) – Remember I am backing the HOME team in all instances – at best odds available * 13-Nov-10 AS Eupen Mechelen 13-Nov-10 Club Brugge Lierse 13-Nov-10 Köln Borussia M'gla… 13-Nov-10 Burnley Watford 13-Nov-10 Portsmouth Doncaster Rovers 13-Nov-10 Tranmere Rovers Plymouth Argyle 13-Nov-10 Yeovil Town Dagenham & Red… 13-Nov-10 Juventus Roma * * * *

[KThom]

Re: Home wins (for lack of a better title) Apologies for the format but I'm having to post via my phone at the moment. Hope it's easy enough to follow

[KThom]

Re: Home wins (for lack of a better title) 3/7 for saturday with 1 game postponed, so not the best of starts (always seems the way when I "go live"). One for Sunday:

14-Nov-10

Real Zaragoza

Sevilla