Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

[brit]

Good day to everyone! First and foremost, in no way I'll be challenging the success of the neighbour thread of Spread Corners, created by muppet77. That success is unbeatable and more often than not I'll be regreting if my system shows different selections to his selections ;) My system is based on fixed odds only though, so no spreads will be here. I ran a fair amount of backtesting on this system for the past and present year, and it does show the yield of approximately 22-23% so far. I've only tested it on EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga and will be adding Championship, League One&Two, Serie A and SPL soon. I will not be betting on any form of Cups. Bank management will be pretty simple - 2% stake on each of the proposed selections. However, if somebody would advice me on how I can convert my staking plan into something more profitable, I would definately appreciate it! For example, my system shows me a "Corners Expectation" variable, which, let's say, is 11.482. If the line is 10.5, I would then back Over 10.5 corners, as my system shows me a high possibility of 11 or more corners being taken in a given match. I do understand that, there are times when my system will show 12.282 variable in a 10.5 line, which logically would mean to stake more, but how much more - that is the question. Therefore, 2% of original bank will be staked for now. Enough said. If any questions, please ask. :hope

[brit]

Starting bank: £5,000 Everything highlited in red is what I am betting on. GL :hope

[gloryhunters]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. First of all good luck. Just one point. If you have a calculation to produce the expected number of corners then this is more suited to spread betting. For fixed odds you need the probability distribution and be able to work out the probability of an event being above a certain line. For example assume a match between team A and team B had 9 corners 1/3 of the time and 12 corners 2/3s of the time. The expected number of corners in the match would be 11. What would you do if the line was set at 11.5. For a spread bet you sell at under 11.5, whereas for a fixed odds bet you'd go for the over.

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

First of all good luck. Just one point. If you have a calculation to produce the expected number of corners then this is more suited to spread betting. For fixed odds you need the probability distribution and be able to work out the probability of an event being above a certain line. For example assume a match between team A and team B had 9 corners 1/3 of the time and 12 corners 2/3s of the time. The expected number of corners in the match would be 11. What would you do if the line was set at 11.5. For a spread bet you sell at under 11.5, whereas for a fixed odds bet you'd go for the over.

First of all, thanks for your post! I did some simulation using spread odds (unfortunately, I do not have that many of them :( ), and coudn't find enough edge. The problem was with "under corners" expectations, which ended up resulting in huge loss due in high corners matches (even with stop-loss applied). I had pretty many of them in a period of 30-40 bets and wasn't really pleased with that fact, as bank would under huge risk during those periods. In compare, fixed odds systems shows pretty good results at the moment, that is why I decided to stick with it.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. good luck mate. your ideas about fixed stakes seem to be hit and miss - do you know that you are finding value? how much? if you can answer that then you can work out how much more to bet on more confident games. i agree with glory about the spreads comments also. best of luck though. :hope

[Lardonio]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. If your yield is 22-23% then you will have to try hard to come up with a staking plan that won't make you rich fairly quickly, provided the system produces enough bets. If you really expect that yield just go for steady level stakes and you'll be flying.

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Thanks for all your posts and suggestions guys, let's see how it goes. Forgot to answer this question:

What would you do if the line was set at 11.5. For a spread bet you sell at under 11.5, whereas for a fixed odds bet you'd go for the over.

In these circumstances, I would skip the bet. I had exactly the same story with Real Madrid match yesterday, where I had Corner Expectation at 10.46, the line was 10.5 and there were 11 corners in the match. No bet is also a good bet :)

[gloryhunters]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

Thanks for all your posts and suggestions guys, let's see how it goes. Forgot to answer this question: In these circumstances, I would skip the bet. I had exactly the same story with Real Madrid match yesterday, where I had Corner Expectation at 10.46, the line was 10.5 and there were 11 corners in the match. No bet is also a good bet :)

Here you bet on the over as it happens 2/3s of the time (and assuming you are offered evens). All I'm trying to say is that for expectation you need to look more towards spread betting. When looking at fixed odds, you need to look at probabilities of being over. The could be very close or may be completely different. Good luck and I'll follow with interest.

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

Here you bet on the over as it happens 2/3s of the time (and assuming you are offered evens). All I'm trying to say is that for expectation you need to look more towards spread betting. When looking at fixed odds, you need to look at probabilities of being over. The could be very close or may be completely different.

I am using Kevin Pullein's method to identify the probabilities, as I found his method suit my needs just perfectly. Let's say, for example, that I have a 11.4 line a given match (just like yesterday's selection). Bookies line is 10.5, over/under odds are 1.95 respectively. I then use the graph below: What it shows us is that if our match shows 11.4 expectation, there is 43% chance of 0-10 corners being taken, and 57% chance of 10+ to be taken. That is how I'm trying to identify an edge. Once again, thanks for all your suggestions, good to know that people are here to help! :cheers

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Thought I'd better clarify my last post. I am only using Pullein's probability distribution method, but not the actual method on figuring out corner expectations. I've backtested his formula (CAB = (CD x 58 ÷ 100) + (CA x CB ÷ CD x 42 ÷ 100), which was quoted in his "Betting on Football" book, but couldn't find enough edge there. Today's bets are: Starting Bank: £5,000 Actual Bank: £4,900

[Evertonboy]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Brit, Have you never considered betting on different corner markets, such as 0-9 corners, 10-12 and 13+? I find these prices are often more attractive. At the minute your betting at odds on, so you will need a pretty good strike rate of say 60% to make a decent profit. Also at the mo every win will only return you around £90 whilst every loss will cost you £100

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

Brit, Have you never considered betting on different corner markets, such as 0-9 corners, 10-12 and 13+? I find these prices are often more attractive. At the minute your betting at odds on, so you will need a pretty good strike rate of say 60% to make a decent profit. Also at the mo every win will only return you around £90 whilst every loss will cost you £100

Hello jamiedavies02! I know there are much more corners market these days, e.g. team's handicaps, markets you've mentioned, spreads etc. but as I already said I've backtested this total corners system and even though I'd lose more than I win due to bookies margins, I still had a decent yield over the period of time. 200+ bets returned with a very good yield, in some words pretty unrealistic I would say, that is why I decided to open this thread, just to see how far it can go and what the yield will be. I've estimated that by betting on 6 leagues (EPL, Championship, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and SPL) I would be investing about 20% of my initial bank each weekend and while backtesting was able to get bigger returns from initial investments. So just Totals for now but will be happy to exploit more values in other markets if this system will prove to be profitable enough for "retirement" ;) Thanks for suggestions though :cheers

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Starting Bank: £5,000 Actual Bank: £4,962 (-38) +£62 today. Next bets will be ready by friday/saturday morning.

[Cavendish]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Hi Brit, Just an observation but as others have said I think your promised fortune is with spread betting. Using the margins as a guide (Bet356) I have calculated you would be showing a profit using the spreads.(About 8pts) Maybe you should look at quoting both (if available) but as jamiedavies02 pointed out making long term profit backing at odds on, will require a high strike rate. Just these first six games three winners, three losers -38 pts assuming 100 pt stakes

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers.

Hi Brit, Just an observation but as others have said I think your promised fortune is with spread betting. Using the margins as a guide (Bet356) I have calculated you would be showing a profit using the spreads.(About 8pts) Maybe you should look at quoting both (if available) but as jamiedavies02 pointed out making long term profit backing at odds on, will require a high strike rate. Just these first six games three winners, three losers -38 pts assuming 100 pt stakes

Hello Cavendish and thanks for your post! The problem with spreads is that they only price high-profile matches and the one's which are on TV, which would then result in a decreased amount of bets placed. While backtesting spreads, I had only about 3-4 bets placed during the week. From those 3-4 bets, more often than not I had about 3 sells and 1 buy. From those sells, 1 match would result in about 21 corners taken, which would destroy all the profits from previous 3 winners, etc. But, just because so many people advised to use Spreads, I will be adding Spreads paper trailing this weekend onwards. So, there will be 2 systems over here from Friday/Saturday this week - one is "Fixed Odds" (proved to be profitable), and another one is "Spreads" (paper trailing). We'll see how it goes. Thanks guys and fingers crossed. :drums

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. "FIXED ODDS" Starting Bank: £5,000 Actual Bank: £4,962 (-38) Nothing at the moment, as only few firms priced corners for tomorrow. "SPREADS" Starting Bank: £1,000

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. "FIXED ODDS" Sunday bets should be ready by tomorrow evening. :hope

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Stats update and new "Spread" bets for tomorrow: "SPREADS" Starting Bank: £1,000 Actual Bank: £1,040 (+£40)

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. "SPREADS" Starting Bank: £1,000 Actual Bank: £1,063 (+£63) "Fixed Odds" stats update and new bets will follow shortly.

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Just an update of stats before upcoming weekend starts, so everything is tidy over here. "FIXED ODDS" system shows a bit of loss, and that is mainly because of the added SPL recently, which had a pretty bad start already. With all other leagues I am pretty happy at the moment. So I will keep backtesting SPL and Serie A, but will adjust the system over here, so that no SPL and Serie A for now. "SPREADS" system got a good start and hopefully we will be able to mantain this form in the future :) Below are the actual stats from start of the 2010/2011 season so far (by league): Premier League Staked: £1,100; Profit/Loss: -£16; ROI: -1.45% Championship Staked: £900; Profit/Loss: +£214 ROI: +23.78% Bundesliga Staked: £600; Profit/Loss: +£133; ROI: +22.17% La Liga Staked: £900; Profit/Loss: -£5; ROI: -0.56% SPL Staked: £400; Profit/Loss: -£228; ROI: -57.00% Serie A Staked: £0 Profit/Loss: - ROI: - "FIXED ODDS" Starting Bank: £5,000 Actual Bank: £4,615 (-£385) "SPREADS" Starting Bank: £1,000 Actual Bank: £1,053 (+£53) New bets will be ready soon. :hope

[brit]

Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. One bet for tomorrow, Bundesliga clash between giants Bayern Munich and Freiburg, who are strangely enough find themselves higher in the table than hosts. Should be good game to watch and I expect plenty of action. Generall line for this match is 10.5 with unders favourites, but SJ decided to go high on overs in 9.5 line and it's good enough to be taken. "FIXED ODDS"