Football Laying Strategy

[Depboy]

Hi All This thread is intended to take it's inspiration from Jtw1's "Football ratings system" thread. For those of you who are unfamiliar with this thread, it uses ratings from two other sites, Gooners Guide & H2H Stats to pick Home favourites to back in the four big european leagues. In general I prefer to lay rather than back, and trade a little before the weekend to (hopefully) ensure a bit of extra value. So the idea here is to lay marginal favourites who are playing Away with unfavourable ratings on both sites. Both GG and H2H spreadsheets are generally available by Thursday. So my plan is to post my Lay picks on a Thursday evening to allow some trading time. I will post 5 picks each week with the odds I've laid at, less the 5% betfair commission. The rough criteria will be as follows. 1. Away team priced as marginal favourites (priced 1.9 - 2.6) 2. Unfavourable ratings on GG & H2H. I will be looking for positive (ie favouring the home team) ratings or low negative ratings on both sites. 3. Prices that have already started to drift in the right direction on Oddschecker. 4. Price that look likely to continue to drift due to the weight of betting on Betfair. Staking plan The starting bank will be £1000. I will be laying each team for a backer's stake of 20% of the bank each Thursday. Between Thurs eve and Sat morn I will be looking to back the team (hopefully at longer odds) to reduce the backers state to 2% for each selection. The golden rule will be that I will only be looking to win 2% of the maximum bank on each selection, regardless of how successful the trading has been. I will continue to stake at 2% of the maximum bank for each selection, unless/until the bank has declined to 30% below the maximum. At this point the staking plan will reset to 2% of current bank. (I know, I know, modest loss recovery, but I think I'm playing it pretty safe.) On Saturday mornings, I will post the results of my trading efforts in the form of average odds I've laid each selection at. If the trading goes well the effective odds that I will be laying at should be greatly reduced. Most of the betting volume on these markets occurs on Friday and Sat AM, so there should be scope for successful trading. Also, bookies play it safe with their odds early in the week and generally move them out (to reflect the volume of betting on each outcome) as the week goes by. If the selections are good, then this should make for favourable trading conditions. Anyone care to shoot me down/talk me out of this?

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy No Gooners Guide spreadsheet as yet :eyes, but I can't leave it any later to lay my picks. Here goes then; my very first round of laying picks for the coming weekend.:hope Team, Odds laid at, Backer's stake, Target trade out price INTER v Sampdoria, 1.62, £338.98, 1.66 VALENCIA v Mallorca, 1.63, £333.33, 1.67 Bologna v JUVENTUS, 1.94, £222.22, 2.02 Nurnburg v WOLFSBURG, 2.55 £135.14, 2.70 Mgladbach v W BREMEN, 2.2 £175.44, 2.32 For the home selections I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, leaving a £20 (2% of bank) bet on a home win. For the away selections I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, reducing the backers stake for the away team to £20 (2% of bank). I will post again once I've traded out on all selections.