Football Laying Strategy

[Depboy]

Hi All This thread is intended to take it's inspiration from Jtw1's "Football ratings system" thread. For those of you who are unfamiliar with this thread, it uses ratings from two other sites, Gooners Guide & H2H Stats to pick Home favourites to back in the four big european leagues. In general I prefer to lay rather than back, and trade a little before the weekend to (hopefully) ensure a bit of extra value. So the idea here is to lay marginal favourites who are playing Away with unfavourable ratings on both sites. Both GG and H2H spreadsheets are generally available by Thursday. So my plan is to post my Lay picks on a Thursday evening to allow some trading time. I will post 5 picks each week with the odds I've laid at, less the 5% betfair commission. The rough criteria will be as follows. 1. Away team priced as marginal favourites (priced 1.9 - 2.6) 2. Unfavourable ratings on GG & H2H. I will be looking for positive (ie favouring the home team) ratings or low negative ratings on both sites. 3. Prices that have already started to drift in the right direction on Oddschecker. 4. Price that look likely to continue to drift due to the weight of betting on Betfair. Staking plan The starting bank will be £1000. I will be laying each team for a backer's stake of 20% of the bank each Thursday. Between Thurs eve and Sat morn I will be looking to back the team (hopefully at longer odds) to reduce the backers state to 2% for each selection. The golden rule will be that I will only be looking to win 2% of the maximum bank on each selection, regardless of how successful the trading has been. I will continue to stake at 2% of the maximum bank for each selection, unless/until the bank has declined to 30% below the maximum. At this point the staking plan will reset to 2% of current bank. (I know, I know, modest loss recovery, but I think I'm playing it pretty safe.) On Saturday mornings, I will post the results of my trading efforts in the form of average odds I've laid each selection at. If the trading goes well the effective odds that I will be laying at should be greatly reduced. Most of the betting volume on these markets occurs on Friday and Sat AM, so there should be scope for successful trading. Also, bookies play it safe with their odds early in the week and generally move them out (to reflect the volume of betting on each outcome) as the week goes by. If the selections are good, then this should make for favourable trading conditions. Anyone care to shoot me down/talk me out of this?

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy No Gooners Guide spreadsheet as yet :eyes, but I can't leave it any later to lay my picks. Here goes then; my very first round of laying picks for the coming weekend.:hope Team, Odds laid at, Backer's stake, Target trade out price INTER v Sampdoria, 1.62, £338.98, 1.66 VALENCIA v Mallorca, 1.63, £333.33, 1.67 Bologna v JUVENTUS, 1.94, £222.22, 2.02 Nurnburg v WOLFSBURG, 2.55 £135.14, 2.70 Mgladbach v W BREMEN, 2.2 £175.44, 2.32 For the home selections I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, leaving a £20 (2% of bank) bet on a home win. For the away selections I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, reducing the backers stake for the away team to £20 (2% of bank). I will post again once I've traded out on all selections.

[Dumyat]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Good luck Dep - have tried Bologna +0.5 at 2.07 PINN and will hold for straight away lay.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy I've traded out of 2 positions so far: Trade out price, remaining Backer's stake, Liability Bologna v JUVENTUS, 1.94, £222.22, 2.02 1.97, £20, £11.74 Nurnburg v WOLFSBURG, 2.55 £135.14, 2.70 2.71 £20, £13.08 Mgladbach v W BREMEN, 2.2 £175.44, 2.32 2.22, £20, 19.69 Quite happy to have laid all 3 at better than evens.:D Getting twitchy on the other two positions though. May well trade out of Valencia at less than 1.63:(. Going out for the rest of the day now to watch MK Dons, but will post results of the other two trades tomorrow. GL all.:hope

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Bologna v JUVENTUS, 1.94, £222.22, 2.02 1.97, £20, £11.74 Nurnburg v WOLFSBURG, 2.55 £135.14, 2.70 2.71 £20, £13.08 :D Mgladbach v W BREMEN, 2.2 £175.44, 2.32 2.22, £20, 19.69 :( I managed to additionally lay Valencia at 1.59 and then close out the position at 1.61 which meant my overall average price was 1.63, resulting in a loss of £33.56 :( Not looking great on my final trade of the weekend either. Big lesson to learn from this 1st week is to do the Home favourite trading the other way round (back initially, then lay nearer to KO).:spank Counting on Bologna and Inter to salvage my weekend:hope

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Bologna managed a 0-0 draw:) but Inter cost me dear. I traded out of Inter at 1.60 for a loss of £46.99. So overall, INTER v Sampdoria, 1.62, £338.98, 1.66 :( -£46.99 VALENCIA v Mallorca, 1.63, £333.33, 1.67 :( -£33.56 Bologna v JUVENTUS, 1.94, £222.22, 2.02 :) £20 Nurnburg v WOLFSBURG, 2.55 £135.14, 2.70 ;) £20 Mgladbach v W BREMEN, 2.2 £175.44, 2.32 :( -£19.69 Starting bank £1000 Current bank £939.76 Total staked £125.96 Number of bets 5 Winning bets 2 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 40% Yield -47.8% Profit (or Loss) -£60.24 This week's laying picks, odds & backer's stakes: Bolton v LIVERPOOL 2.32 £142.42 Brescia v NAPOLI 2.54 £122.07 Cescena v SAMPDORIA 2.52 £123.68 Gijon v VILLAREAL 2.18 £159.32 Mainz v DORTMUND 2.60 £117.50 I realised reflecting the 5% commission in the odds last week was overcomplicating matters because commission is only paid on the final betting position. So the above prices don't reflect commission but my post once I've traded out will do. Also, I should really have staked to win £21 rather than £20 for each bet last week to reflect the 5%, an error that I will be correcting this week.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy I have now traded out on all five selections to leave the following positions: Team, Backer's stake*, My liability Bolton v LIVERPOOL £20, £20.58 Brescia v NAPOLI, £20, £47.95 Cescena v SAMPDORIA, £20, £13.44 Gijon v VILLAREAL, £20, £19.63 Mainz v DORTMUND, £20, £33.48 * Backers stake reflects 5% commission (ie actual stake is £21, £21 - 5% = £20) The Napoli trading didn't go well. I traded out of Liverpool quickly and used the bankroll that was then freed up to additionally lay Napoli at 2.46. BIG MISTAKE. I ended up trading out at 2.42, hence the nasty liability.:sad On a positive note, I executed a perfect trade on Sampdoria:loon and the Liverpool and Villareal ones were pretty good too:) I got out of Dortmund at the same price I opened at. Not a great result but it could have been a fair bit worse because the last price matched as I write was 2.50. GL all, and :hope for Brescia keeping Napoli at bay.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Well last weekend can only be described as a complete shower of shit, with only 1 out of 5 results coming in. :wall Starting bank £1000 Current bank £841.31 Total staked £261.04 Number of bets 10 Winning bets 3 Losing bets 7 Strike rate 30% Yield -60.8% Profit (or Loss) -£158.69 One more bad weekend and I'll have to seriously consider knocking this one on the head. This week's picks: Bolton v TOTTENHAM, 2.54, £109.22 BOLOGNA v Lecce, 2.00, £168.26 SUNDERLAND v Stoke, 2.20, £168.26 SAMPDORIA v Catania, 1.95, £168.26 VILLAREAL v Bilbao, 1.86, 168.26 Not many magninal away favourites this week, so I'm backing 4 home favourites, looking to lay them of at a lower price between now and KO. For the home selection I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, leaving a £20 (2% of max. bank) bet on a home win. For the away selections I'm looking to trade out between now and kick off, at or near the target trade out, reducing the backer's stake for the away team to £20 (2% of bank). GL all.:hope

[Dumyat]

Re: Football Laying Strategy How about BARI V AC Milan. Gooner edge is just 37 to the away. Bari 2.02 +0.5.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Backers stake, liability: Bolton v TOTTENHAM, 2.54, £109.22 £20, £32.34 BOLOGNA v Lecce, 2.00, £168.26 £20, £20.62 SUNDERLAND v Stoke, 2.20, £168.26 £20, £13.63 SAMPDORIA v Catania, 1.95, £168.26 £20, £32.90 VILLAREAL v Bilbao, 1.86, 168.26 £20, £20.35 3/3 results yeterday:nana(Bologna left it pretty late though) However, some shambolic trading on Sampdoria has left me with a nasty liability to sweat on today:wall GL with the Bari bet Dumyat. :hope A -1.00 rating on H2H was enough to dampen my interest in that one.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Bolton v TOTTENHAM, 2.54, £109.22 £20, £32.34 :) BOLOGNA v Lecce, 2.00, £168.26 £20, £20.62 :) SUNDERLAND v Stoke, 2.20, £168.26 £20, £13.63 :) SAMPDORIA v Catania, 1.95, £168.26 £20, £32.90 :( VILLAREAL v Bilbao, 1.86, 168.26 £20, £20.35 :) A decent weekend only spoilt slightly by the fact that the one match that I traded badly on was the result that didn't come in. Starting bank £1000 Current bank £888.41 Total staked £381.25 Number of bets 15 Winning bets 7 Losing bets 8 Strike rate 46.6% Yield -29.3% Profit (or Loss) -£111.59 The midweek fixtures have thrown up just on bet which I've already traded out on: Lecce v INTER, 1.77, £259.00, £20, £11.41

[MillwallPunter]

Re: Football Laying Strategy sorry to sound dim, but fairly new to trying schemes and strategies. When you say to lay a team, exactly what does that mean.

[icecreamdreams]

Re: Football Laying Strategy

sorry to sound dim' date=' but fairly new to trying schemes and strategies. When you say to lay a team, exactly what does that mean.[/quote'] Laying is a bet against something to happen. lay arsenal = you are saying they wont win the game

[MillwallPunter]

Re: Football Laying Strategy so let me get this staright, if i lay a 0-0 draw, i'm saying it won't finish 0-0.

[Fearthainn]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Exactly.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Nice little result last night: Lecce v INTER, 1.77, £259.00, £20, £11.41 1 - 1 :) And this evening I've just managed my first ever free bet: Stoke v LIVERPOOL, 1.97, £195.88, £23.41, £0.01 :dude (anyone know how I post a celebratory screen dump as proof?) I'll post the rest of the pick once they're placed, hopefully tomorrow. Starting bank £1000 Current bank £908.41 Total staked £392.66 Number of bets 16 Winning bets 8 Losing bets 8 Strike rate 50% Yield -23.3% Profit (or Loss) -£91.59

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Looks like I've tried to be a little to cautious and a s a result, the markets have moved away from my other bets. :( I do have 1 bet placed for Sunday: Zaragoza v SEVILLA , 2.42, £138.00 and 1 partially matched for tomorrow: Kaiserslautern v STUTTGART, 2.34, £37.46 I will be working tomorrow without internet access, so will be out of the markets before I leave for work.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Stoke v LIVERPOOL, 1.97, £195.88, £23.41, £0.01 :) Kaiserslautern v STUTTGART, 2.34, £37.46, £20, £37.01 :) Zaragoza v SEVILLA , 2.42, £138.00, £20, £30.58 A decent weekend, whatever happens in the final match. I've closed the trade now, but Laying Sevilla at around 2.30, as they currently are on Betfair, looks like fantastic value to me.

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy 10 man Sevilla scored a last gasp winner to thwart my final bet of the weekend. :@ Stoke v LIVERPOOL, 1.97, £195.88, £23.41, £0.01 :) Kaiserslautern v STUTTGART, 2.34, £37.46, £20, £37.01 :) Zaragoza v SEVILLA , 2.42, £138.00, £20, £30.58 :( Nevertheless, I've taken another small step back towards break even, and the strike rate has now nudged above 50%.:ok Starting bank £1000 Current bank £921.24 Total staked £460.26 Number of bets 19 Winning bets 10 Losing bets 9 Strike rate 52.6% Yield -17.1% Profit (or Loss) -£78.76

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Just two picks this weekend, one of which I traded out of within minutes last night: Bristol City v LEICESTER, 2.40, £135.00 ESPANYOL v Hercules, 1.98, £162.00, £20, £16.99

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Just did a last minute trade out: Bristol City v LEICESTER, 2.40, £135.00 £20, £30.12 ESPANYOL v Hercules, 1.98, £162.00, £20, £16.99

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy A decent weekend: Bristol City v LEICESTER, 2.40, £135.00 £20, £30.12 :) ESPANYOL v Hercules, 1.98, £162.00, £20, £16.99 :) Starting bank £1000 Current bank £961.24 Total staked £508.37 Number of bets 21 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 9 Strike rate 57.1% Yield -17.1% Profit (or Loss) -£7.62

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy I've opened up a couple of trades for the coming weekend. Neither have moved in the right direction yet. Kaiserslautern v SCHALKE, 2.3, £147.69 Zaragoza v VILLAREAL, 2.32, £145.45

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Another trade just opened: TOTTENHAM v Liverpool, 2.12, £192.00

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Trading update: Kaiserslautern v SCHALKE, 2.3, £147.69 £20, £20.50 :D Zaragoza v VILLAREAL, 2.32, £145.45 £20.60, £18.96 TOTTENHAM v Liverpool, 2.12, £192.00 ...and another trade opened today ATH BILBAO v Osasuna 1.77, £192.00

[Depboy]

Re: Football Laying Strategy Kaiserslautern v SCHALKE, 2.3, £147.69 £20, £20.50 :) Zaragoza v VILLAREAL, 2.32, £145.45 £20.60, £18.96 :( TOTTENHAM v Liverpool, 2.12, £192.00, £20, £9.85 :) ATH BILBAO v Osasuna 1.77, £192.00, £20, £22.45 :) Starting bank £1000 Current bank £1002.28 Total staked £580.13 Number of bets 25 Winning bets 15 Losing bets 10 Strike rate 60% Yield -0.004% Profit (or Loss) £2.28 Another decent weekend sees me nudge into profit for the first time :cow