Derive

[martzen]

Hi I've done some research about the Poisson function in order to calculate probabilities for specific match scores in hockey. It seems to be working great if you know the mean number of goals for each team. This is my problem. I don't know shit about hockey myself ;) so I was thinking I could use the knowledge that the bookies have. The way I see it, they are closer to the truth than I'll ever be. So here's the question: The bookies offer odds on all possible outcomes of the game (let's limit it to 0-5 goals for each team to make it simple). So, is there any way I derive the mean number of goals for each team from these 36 different odds? thanks /Fredrik

[Mulkis]

Re: Derive For that you would probably need to know exact formula or algorithm bookies are using, wouldnt you? :) And i would personaly doubt very much if such efforts would be worth a penny, because bookies are not so good at prognosing outcomes in general.