Dimitrov to beat Hurkacz at 1.74 with Unibet.
Dimitrov is playing well and still going strong and I reckon he has a great chance of winning the Paris Masters.
Zheng to beat Zhu in straight sets at 1.65 with Pinnacle.
Zheng is the better player and the better hope for China to win the Elite Trophy. So I am betting on Zheng to repeat her feat in Asian Games final between the 2 Chinese.
Agree with you that the odds are too high. Also agree that Osta has a higher chance to win than the odd suggest. Zheng's low odd is because she is the local favourite and she will be the only local in the SF if Samsonova beat Kudermetova today.
As for Samsonova low odd, imho it is an indication of her chance to win this match. Kudermetova is already out of the SF (single) but she is in the Final for the double so she may not go all out for today's match and save it for her doubles final. So I find it more logical to bet on Samsonova to win it by straight sets or with a game handicap of -3.5.
Van de Zandschulp to beat AAF at 2.40 with Pinnacle.
This is a value bet from my analysis. H2H 1-1 and Van won the latest matchup last year with a higher odd than today. Van is also better form wise and played his last match 3 days ago whereas AAF played an evening match yesterday.
Ostapenko won 4-6, 6-4, 6-1.
Vekic was aggressive from the start and hope to win by straight sets to have any chance to advance to the SF but as expected, she felt the physical strain in latter stage and lost the final set 6-1.
Ostapenko to beat Vekic at 1.58 with Pinnacle.
Both players are inconsistence but Osta is fresh and physically ready. Vekic is demoralised after yesterday long-match loss and could mentally and physically affect her performance today.
Seyboth Wild +1.5 set to beat Griekspoor @1.91 with Pinnacle.
Griekspoor is in low form. SW has equal ability and much better condition........ except he is a more of a claycourt player.
50-50 match at a little +money
Trevisan to beat Siniakova @2.02
H2H 1-1
About same standard of skill.
About same condition - both not at their best
I think Trevisan is more motivated!
With the match playing in the gruelling heat at 3 pm Paris time - the hottest so far in this edition according to the weather forecast - I will take the youngster, Alcaraz -1.5 set to beat his (much) older opponent, Kjokovic @1.94.
All said....... and without a rest day before this SF match, I reckon Haddad will be thrashed. I have observed her slow start in her last 2 matches so I am going with Swiatek -2,5 G in the first set @1,53.
Now H2H 7-0!
Svitolina was playing like fighting in a war!
She will donate all her winnings in the FO to the fronliners fighting in the Ukraine-Russia War!
Ya, I think hoping is one thing but betting for a short odds for at most a 60-40 chance is another thing.
For me it is a value to bet on a ML-win for Svitolina. Hope she plays like her countrywoman, Tsurerenko.
As you have reasoned, I bet Cerrundolo -1.5 set to beat Hanfmann with better odds.
As for Paolini-Danilovic, I will give a miss because I think Paolini has reached her peak in this clay swing while Danilova is still reaching her best...... thus for me is a 40-60 to Paolini.