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Everything posted by jamied02

  1. Latest rating.. (Total xG, xG for, xG against, xG ratio) (Matches played, total shots on target, SOT for, SOT against, SOT ratio, PDO, Goal%, Save%)
  2. Abit late to the party so I’m playing catch up, I’ve adapted my football ratings to NFL. Basically Attack/ Defence/ Supremacy ratings which are weighted and based on last seasons regular season (I’ve decided not include post season results in the ratings as to not punish any team who may suffer a heavy defeat after qualifying for them in the first place). The below ratings are raw at the moment, and by that I mean are purely stats based and do not include any player movements. I’m still building up a more intricate knowledge of teams, what I’m looking for is there anything in any of the ratings below that immediately stand out as to needing an adjustement one way or the other. I’ll be plugging the ratings into a model which can be used for the main day of match markets, as well as long term markets. Happy to share throughout the season in exchange for help on the initial ratings.
  3. I've had 1 point on South Sydney to win the NRL Grand Final - they sit 3rd on my ratings and I make them around 23/10 for outright glory. They are currently 17/2 best price. The Rabbitohs have been beaten at the Preliminary Final (effectively a semi final) stage for the last 3 seasons.
  4. Arsenal may have opened the season with back to back defeats in the Premier League but I'm backing the Gunners to embark a good cup here. For the first time in a quarter century Arsenal have no European football to contend and given their team selection in R2 away at West Brom, it looks as though they'll be taking this competition seriously. Mikel Artetas men also have a respectable record in both domestic cups; they were beaten finalists in this competition in 17/18 with a further 3 QF appearances in the last 5 years. They also have 2 FA Cups in the trophy cabinet from the past 5 seasons. Recommended Bet 1.00pt - Arsenal to win the EFL Cup @ 12/1 (Various)
  5. I also feel that unfashionable Nashville at 33/1 are overpriced; i'll have half a point on them. Bet 0.50pt - Nashville To Win The MLS Cup - 33/1 @ Various
  6. Season to date xG, total shots and shots on target ratios: Current projected play off picture: Thoughts NYCFC top all 3 stats based tables above, my match ratings have them around the 11/2 mark for MLS Cup glory. Hills go 20/1 which for me is too big to ignore. Transfer Markt have their average player value as 4th highest in the league whilst their total player vlaue comes out in 3rd; this to me suggests they should be there or thereabouts and the stats more than back this up. Bet 1.00pt - NYCFC To Win The MLS Cup - 20/1 @ William Hill
  7. Not strictly the Champions League but thought this the best place for it... Chelsea (ENG) v Villarreal (SPA) Final Trends (since 2000-01) ENG won 3/21 (losing 5 finals) SPA won 12/21 (losing 7 finals) 14/21 won by UCL winner 9/21 drawn 3.00 average goals 2/21 <2 goals 11/21 >2 7/21 >3 15/21 BTTS 5/21 finished 1-1 England UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y) 290-171-51-68 (0.70) 147-88-28-31 (0.71) Spain UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y) 279-144-68-67 (0.63) 133-67-30-36 (0.59) Chelsea UCL/UEL (4Y/ 2Y) 44-27-11-6 (0.71) 2.95 average goals 10/44 <2 25/44 >2 14/44> 3 19/44 BTTS 21-12-5-4 (0.66) 2.62 average goals 6/21 <2 10/21 >3 5/21 >4 8/21 BTTS Villarreal UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y) 34-19-10-5 (0.68) 2.68 average goals 9/34 <2 16/34 >2 12/34 >3 14-11-3-0 (0.80) 2.64 average goals 3/14 <2 6/14 >2 3/14 >3 7/14 BTTS Nation H2H (4Y/ 2Y) 48-16-16-16 1.38-1.17 13/48 <2 24/48 >2 14/48 >3 24/48 BTTS 25-11-7-7 1.40-0.76 9/25 <2 10/25 >2 6/25 >3 9/25 BTTS Thoughts I think it's fair to say that Chelsea are the better of the two teams, with English sides also having a better European record than their Spanish counterparts over the last 4 and 2 year cycles. However the record of Spanish teams in this competition cannot be ignored, my feel is that they tend to take this more seriously than English clubs who may view this as a "European Community Shield" opposed to a genuine trophy. Personally I tend to share that opinion and won't be getting too involved; I think motivation could be a leveller and I'll stick half a point on the most common correct score over the last 20 years. Bets 0.5pts - Draw 1-1 7/1 @ Bet365 (Bore Draw)
  8. Some opening day stats below; Average goals up slightly in the Championship and League Two; strangely goes the other way in League One. Around 30% of matches in Champ and L2 go over 3.5 compared to around 25% in a normal week; again doesn't hold up in L1.
  9. Some opening day stats below; Average goals up slightly in the Championship and League Two; strangely goes the other way in League One. Around 30% of matches in Champ and L2 go over 3.5 compared to around 25% in a normal week; again doesn't hold up in L1.
  10. Community Shield Stats (Since 2000/2001) "D" is matches drawn.
  11. NRL stats/ ratings... Odds.. Super League stats/ratings Odds..
  12. Latest projections.. ..and ratings (24 match followed by season to date)
  13. Italy and England form in competitive matches since (and including) the 2018 World Cup)
  14. Brazil v Argentina 5 out of the last 10 Copa America Finals finished level after 90 mins, average goals 2.30, 3 0-0s. Bet Match to be drawn - 1pt @ 21/10 (General) No First Goalscorer - 0.5pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)
  15. Similar thoughts the rest of the knockout rounds really... 28/64 knockout matches from Euro 96 ending all square, 3/6 finals, average goals in finals in that period 1.67. Italy's record in knockout matches of Euros and World Cups since Italia 90 (90 mins play) is P27-W12-D14-L1, England P22-W5-D12-L5. Expect both sides to adopt a saftey first approach. Bet Match to be drawn - 1pt @ 2/1 (General) No First Goalscorer - 0.5pts @ 6/1 (Betvictor) [Take 0.5pts less than the 13/2 available on 0-0 to keep own goals on sde]
  16. Latest projections; slightly tweaked my approach to the ratings over the last couple of weeks. (FYI MLS = MLS Cup Winner, SS = Supporters Shield, Div = Win Division/ Conference, #1S = Number 1 seed in respective conference, TQ = Qualify for Play Offs) Midweek tissue...
  17. Lorenzo Insigne was voted Star of the Match in last nights Quarter Final between Belgium and Italy - he's not currently showing on Oddschecker but Betway have him chalked up at 33/1, he's generally around 10/1 elsewhere. Italy are current tournament favs and I think he represents value. Bet Lorenzo Insigne Player of the Tournament - 1pt @ 33/1 Betway
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