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A-Team

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    ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July good call. nice recovery after your poor start to the week too. I'm not sure what to do about my Tursunov outright. I'm definitely going to lay some off to ensure some profit, I just don't know how much. I didn't think Haas would be so short and if I wasn't on Turs already then I'd probably take him at the price he is. Beating Gonzo without even giving up a break point is mightily impressive. Then again it's his first final and the guy is a complete nutcase so he's probably not the best man to trust with your money. :/

    ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July I contacted stanjames and they have confirmed that the outright bets will stand at the prices I took them at. (Tursunov at 11.0 and Gonzo at 6.5 (double stakes on the latter) So barring any miracles I'll get one guy in the final. Should be a nice little earner for basically doing nothing. Hope some of you got on as well.

    ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July I like the look Kohlschreiber over Chela. Chela has been awful all season on European clay, going out in the first round in 5 of 7 events. So far here he's beaten Zabaleta who hasn't been playing much lately and Vemic who is ranked 374 in the world so I'm not convinced he's had a significant turn around in form. Kohlschreiber has been quite impressive recently , beating Verdasco and taking a set off Gasquet in the Gstaad semi-final and then beating Nieminen in the last round here, a guy he'd lost to 4 times this year already. I don't see why he's a slight underdog here. 2.04 on Pinnacle.

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 105.53 Total staked: 32 Number of bets: 16 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 9 Void bets: 2 Strike rate : 31.25% Yield: 17.28% Profit: 5.53 Fairly promising start. A decent enough profit on what the research shows to be quite an average strike-rate.

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Luczak v Kohlschreiber(13) 2.62 at Coral Daniel v Pavel(16) 2.54 at Pinnacle Vassallo-Arguello v Youzhny(8) 2.11 at Pinnacle Roitman v Nieiminen 1.15(lay) at betfair Zabaleta v Chela 1.5 at William Hill Haider-Maurer v Mirnyi 6.6 at Pinnacle Waske v Verdasco 1.26(lay) at betfair Calatrava v Massu 1.19(lay) at betfair Eitzinger v Calleri 1.2(lay) at betfair All lost. -18 points for those. tnZZZZZZTVC050627184408PIC.jpg Monaco v Gaudio 2.53 at Pinnacle Vemic v Horna 2.75 at Pinnacle Both of these were void under Pinnacle's rules, which require 2 sets to be completed for bets to stand. The d*ckhead Horna retired at a set and 5-2 down to rob us of what would have been a nice win. Now for the better news: Gremelmayr v Rochus(14) 2.37 at Pinnacle. WON: 2.74 pts profit. Massa v Seppi 3.16 at Pinnacle. WON: 4.32 pts profit. Koubek v Pahsanski 1.58 at Pinnacle. WON: 1.16 pts profit Lapentti v Davydenko 5 at Pinnacle. WON: 8 pts profit. Melzer v Robredo 1.26(lay) at betfair. WON: 7.31 pts profit (5% com.) tnZZZZZZTVICL0703021506PIC.jpg I make that an overall profit of 5.53 points.

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Massa v Seppi 3.16 at Pinnacle Roitman v Nieiminen 1.15(lay) at betfair Monaco v Gaudio 2.53 at Pinnacle Zabaleta v Chela 1.5 at William Hill Haider-Maurer v Mirnyi 6.6 at Pinnacle Vemic v Horna 2.75 at Pinnacle Koubek v Pahsanski 1.58 at Pinnacle Waske v Verdasco 1.26(lay) at betfair Calatrava v Massu 1.19(lay) at betfair Lapentti v Davydenko 5 at Pinnacle Eitzinger v Calleri 1.2(lay) at betfair Melzer v Robredo 1.26(lay) at betfair

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System 1 winner and 3 losers. V-Arguello lost after holding a 6-0 4-2 lead. I noticed that I've made an enormous basic fractional/decimal odds f*ck-up. With 5 winners average odds of around 2.5/1 are needed for profit not 2.5. I'm not putting any cash behind it now but I'll keep it updated out of curiosity.

    ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    I decided to do Moya e/w in Umag at 8.0 with bet365. Pretty much a horses for courses pick as he's won the event 4 times, was runner up last year and semi-finalist the year before. I also figured that there's a chance Ferrer, the top player in his qurter, might pull out given that he was involved in a marathon 5-setter yesterday. I haven't heard anything yet though. Djokovic is favourite but young players tend to be unreliable the week after winning an event as Gasquet showed last week. As for Moya, he's done nothing in Europe this year but his form is really hard to assess given how tough his draws have been. If you overlook the defeat to Novak on his first match back after an injury lay-off he's only really been losing to very tough opponents lately; Nadal, Davydenko twice, Gonzalez, Massu and Blake.
    Ferrer has indeed pulled out so that's step one out of the way. I'm sure he'll go and lose to Novak now that I've got my hopes up.

    ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July I decided to do Moya e/w in Umag at 8.0 with bet365. Pretty much a horses for courses pick as he's won the event 4 times, was runner up last year and semi-finalist the year before. I also figured that there's a chance Ferrer, the top player in his qurter, might pull out given that he was involved in a marathon 5-setter yesterday. I haven't heard anything yet though. Djokovic is favourite but young players tend to be unreliable the week after winning an event as Gasquet showed last week. As for Moya, he's done nothing in Europe this year but his form is really hard to assess given how tough his draws have been. If you overlook the defeat to Novak on his first match back after an injury lay-off he's only really been losing to very tough opponents lately; Nadal, Davydenko twice, Gonzalez, Massu and Blake. In Kitzbuhel I have 10pts on Robredo at 5 and 5pts on Davydenko at 7.0.

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System The evidence: Format: SURFACE Tournament name: Year: Number of Seeds to depart in the 2nd round CLAY Stuttgart: 2006: 11 2005: 9 2004: 4 2003: 5 Kitzbuhel: 2005: 7 2004: 4 2003: 5 2002: 7 OUTDOOR HARD Wahington: 2005: 7 2003: 1 Indianapolis: 2006: 3 2005: 7 2004: 5 2003: 6 New Haven: 2005: 7 Tokyo: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 INDOOR HARD Madrid Masters Series: 2005: 3 2004: 7 2003: 7 2002: 8 INDOOR CARPET Paris Maters Series: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 2002: 3 I think anything over 5 virtually guarantees a healthy profit (that's 11 tournaments out of 26 tested). 5 could result in a profit with average odds of 2.5 which is quite possible in my opinion (9 out of 26). Anything less (6 out of 26) and we'd need some long shots to bail us out.

    Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    This system applies to ATP tournaments in which the 16 seeded players receive an automatic bye to the 2nd round and simply involves opposing all of them. The theory is that their opponents (the first round winners, obviously) will have had at least one extra game to get used to court conditions and the genral tournament environment (more if they've come through the qualifying rounds) and are therefore more likely to cause upsets than they would be otherwise. In this regard it is similar to the "Value in Qualifiers" system currently being run with great success by Mr. Intensity. As I don't have access to historical tennis odds, this sytem has not yet been properly tested. I have, however, surveyed past results of these tournaments and been encouraged by my findings. I'll include these in a separate post for the sake of tidiness. I am reasonably confident of success and will be backing my selections with real money (albeit small stakes initially) but I repeat, this has not been properly tested and therefore I can't advise others to do the same. I will initially be using a 2 point fixed staking plan on all selections with a starting bank of 100 points. At the moment I won't be setting a price limit although I may do so in future because obviously using fixed stakes and opposing the likes of Federer and Nadal in the 2nd round would be madness. There are 8 tournaments per year with the previously mentioned format and I fully intend to keep this thread as up-to-date as possible. Next up is Kitzbuhel which starts on Monday so stay tuned.

    ATP Amersfoort/Indianapolis/Stuttgart 17th-23rd July

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Amersfoort/Indianapolis/Stuttgart 17th-23rd July I was on Djokovic. I was out earlier so I texted a mate to get him to check who won. Was delighted when he told me Djokovic had. I just saw the score now though. I had him on bet365 so it's void. /o\ Sadly, it was Coria's shoulder again according to the atp site. Great pick with Massu btw Mr. I. You're in stunning form with the outright picks especially considering you've been ignoring them the last few months. wp.

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