[2016 Darts Match-play]

BetVictor World Matchplay 

Round One

Tonight 22:00 

Dave Chisnall vs Benito van de Pas – over 9.5 180s @ 4/5. 1 point. 365.

Not much can be said about this one. Everybody will have the data – bookies’ prices are just down to how they interpret that data. The key interpretation I make is that Benito van de Pas is a better 180 hitter than the raw data suggests, which is why this line is attractive.

Benito van de Pas is one of the rising stars of the game – as a consequence of this, he has had relatively little TV exposure, and thus there is little data on his 180ing standard. Similarly, as a consequence of his continued and rapid improvement, a lot of this available data doesn’t accurately reflect how he is playing now. In light of this, it seems sensible to assign greater weighting to the most recent data points, with big error margins on any statistics you deduce.

Basically, BvdP has had the year of his career so far – he won his first two tour events, and has said in interviews that he feels a lot more comfortable on the stage nowadays. That has been reflected in a marked increase in his 180ing stats – improving his frequency by almost 80% from last season to this – going from the second worst 180er in the top 32 to comfortably ‘mid-table’. 

As two statistical ‘soundbites’ to emphasise van de Pas’ improvement in maximum hitting: he has hit 25 180s in 101 stage legs this year - whilst it took him 171 legs to hit his previous 25 stage 180s - and he hit only 13 180s in his last 101 legs preceding this season. 

I’ve chosen to take the match total rather than individual total because van de Pas is playing against Dave Chisnall. Chizzy is the best 180 hitter in darts, and he improves his 180ing in the longer games (like he will be playing tonight). Chisnall has often said that when he “finds his rythym”, he finds 180 hitting easy – the longer games gave him more chance to find that rythym. This is backed up by an increase of 0.2 180s per leg from his overall 180ing frequency to his 180ing frequency in games over 15 legs long. His 180ing rates have a big positive skew, and should he find his rhythm early, he could cover this line on his own (he did in his first round match here last year, hitting 13).

My 180 model throws out the o9.5 as a 1.56 shot to 100% - this is whilst, 1) taking the market averages on each leg line (I have no strong opinion, but would slightly favour the over), 2) giving van de Pas a slightly lower frequency input than I think is true (to account for the increased error margin), and 3) ignoring Chisnall’s improvement over the longer format. 

When I hand-priced the line, I had it as a u/o 10.5 pickem. I’m not going silly, but there are a few angles that I think make this a solid pick, and I’ve no qualm about staking this to kick off the tournament tonight.

[East Fife vs Aberdeen]

Down. Good side.

[East Fife vs Aberdeen]

I've had some small stakes on home. 10/1 win with Coral, 13/2 DNB, 29/10 double chance and 13/10 +2 EH.

Priced as if the Dons will stick out a first XI in my opinion - won't happen. They played away in the Europa League on Thursday, and are at home in the Europa League on Wednesday. Can't see them risking players at this stage of the pre-season and at this level of fitness. Obviously a big quality gap and you fancy Aberdeen U21/fringe players to still go off favs, but I can't ignore the misprice.

[Euro 2016 > Outright Betting]

There is 9k available on Betfair for Portugal to win Euro 2016 at 16.5. 

The Betfair Exchange at decent liquidity is one of the best predictors of true probability available to the layman in my opinion. By its nature, the smart money will dictate the expected price, but I think the actual price is often slightly distorted from this by 'punters' money. In light of this, I think Portugal at the above price are a good back to lay opportunity. 

The premise being three fold: 1) Both sides' last matches: Croatia beat Spain, Portugal conceded 3 to Hungary and drew. I think this will cause the first punter distortion in the price. They see the results and back Croatia match odds, pushing Portugal out from true price set by big/smart money. 2) If Portugal beat Croatia, it will be likely be in an entertaining game, based on what we've seen from both sides so far. I think this will attract money again and people will think 'Portugal are playing well now'. 3) Punters will not be looking a round ahead, and upon seeing Portugal playing Switzerland or Poland in the quarter final, I reckon the price will be pushed down even further than truth. 

I'm looking to lay before the quarter final for at least a 6/4 win (which is when they reach 6.6), which I think I will get should Portugal qualify - I'm basically trying to enhance the price on Portugal qualifying. 

Both sides are worthy of a back to lay punt on the outright - Croatia are -++ on the three distortion points - Portugal are +++, which is why I've taken their side. I think Croatia are good for their marginal favouritism in the match, but Portugal offer the best investment. The +++ and the greater price give more scope for a big % swing upon qualification.

I can offer no reason to back Portugal outright at fixed odds, this is just a play of the market. Points 2 and 3 apply to both teams and make the match an excellent opportunity. But it's point 1 that means if you take Croatia, you'll be getting a worse expected return than on Portugal.

[European Darts Matchplay 2016]

Euro Tour 4

Today

15:30

Michael van Gerwen vs Daryl Gurney

- over 4.5 180s @ 8/11. Bet365. 1 point.

European Tour gift. The two best 180 hitters of 2016 by a margin, should piss in without something going majorly wrong. (I don't want to say what my sums get the o4.5 price at, but I would be looking at over 5.7 180s for a fair 8/11 price).

I took evens on Betfair to a bigger stake this morning and have rebacked this price to 1 point.

GLt

[Premier League Darts 2016]

Most 180s of the week - Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6. 5 points. Betfred.

I won't bore you with the sums but this is way, way over on PL performance this season.

A lot of the excess probability is held in Lewis' price, which I think is under due to his 9 last week. MvG beats him comfortably over summed 2 game samples and beats the field >90% when 2 plays 1 matchwise.

Biggest bet I've had since the World Matchplay. 

Definitely a price worth having. Hopefully Michael does the business.

[PDC Masters 2016]

Unibet Masters Day 1 

Saturday 30th January 

Michael van Gerwen vs Stephen Bunting 

- Michael van Gerwen -4.5 @ 10/11. 1 point. 365. 
- Michael van Gerwen -6.5 @ 3/1. 0.5 points. 365.

Stephen Bunting hasn't looked right for a decent while in my opinion. There has been a noticable slump in both his performances and results, coupled with a visible lack of confidence in his body language and a slight slowing of his throw. I think this has probably been caused by his poor Premier League last season, which has affected so many other players in the past. But whatever the reason, he's playing Michael van Gerwen here, and that is the last person you want to be facing when not feeling the best about your game. 

Van Gerwen is playing the darts of his career. He is the best player in the world and he is still continually improving. Last time out, he was beaten by Raymond van Barneveld in one of the best matches I have ever seen. van Gerwen's performance didn't drop from his usual standard, RvB just turned up with one of his best ever showings. To give an indication to how well van Gerwen is playing, that RvB loss stopped him from making it to EVERY televised final of last season - he won 7 of the 9 finals he did make it to, and he very rarely posted a sub 100 average throughout the entire year.

The World Championship is the one van Gerwen wants, and missing out will have hurt him. But there is a somewhat reliable trend: whenever MvG suffers a disappointment, he bounces back immediately. Loses the Grand Prix Final, next match 111 average; loses the Premier League Final, next match 107 average... If he plays to that standard, we're in with a shout on these.  

This is a first to 10 match, so the -4.5 lands if van Gerwen can win 10-5 or better. 

Of the 9 matches the two players have played since Bunting's switch to the PDC, van Gerwen has won with over double the legs in 6. The majority of these matches were played when MvG was at a slightly worse standard and Bunting was at a much better standard, so it stands to reason that you'd expect it to happen again here if they maintain their current form levels. Factoring in what I believe to be Bunting's lack of confidence and van Gerwen's motivation to bounce back from World Championship disappointment, and I think this could be a tonking. If van Gerwen gets an early break, I see Bunting struggling to recover. 

I think van Gerwen will be very strong on throw and will be quite the favourite against throw too. >10/5 is >2 breaks in 6 Bunting legs. I haven't put any formal calculation to the price, but my fag packet thoughts were 1.7-1.75 would be around about right. Likewise, >10-3 is >3 breaks in 6 Bunting legs and I reckon 3/1 on that is decent too.

[World Darts Championship]

James Wade vs Wes Newton - James Wade win, high checkout and most 180s @ 15/8. 2 points. Sky.

An early one cos cash is going in over the Wade 180s. Most 180s came back at 8/11, down a tick to best priced 4/6 already. -1.5 180 handicap came back at 11/8, already down to 6/5. I've missed 2 bets that I'd want to be on there.

Basically, as has been talked about a lot, Newton has been in a bad form for about two years now. He didn't qualify for any tv tournaments, so I didn't know exactly how bad he was going until yesterday. He just did not look like a pro dart player in that game. He averaged 76 and hit 1 180 in 16 legs. Very fortunate to cross the line.

Wade is hitting a lot more 180s recently and with Newton on this form, I think most 180s 4/6 represents a fair price over the minimum possible 12 legs - obviously the more legs we have, the bigger the discrepancy between the two players' prices becomes. The only small worry is the highest checkout segment of the treble, but with Wade's reputation as a class finisher and the fact I expect him to win this 12-4ish on legs, this shouldn't be too concerning.

This price looks solid to me and I don't expect it to last.

[World Darts Championship]

Adrian Lewis vs Jan Dekker

- Adrian Lewis to win 3-0 @ 5/4. PP. 1 point. 

- Adrian Lewis king of the oche @ 10/11. Coral. 1 point.

Jan Dekker hasn't had the best of years. He failed to win a tour card last January and hasn't done much on the tour since anyway. He holds a record of 7-20 in Players Championship events, reaching a solitary last 16 on the floor and didn't qualify for any TV events in 2016. He did finish second on the Challenge Tour OoM, so he can't be playing too badly  - but playing the world #5 in a World Championship is a very different prospect to a non-professional floor tournament. 

Adrian Lewis has looked good in recent months. His results have been impressive with final days in each of the last 4 majors, but the key reason why I'm getting on these bets is how focussed Lewis has looked recently. Since reforming his partnership with manager Keith Deller, Lewis has noticably looked more composed and concentrated on the board. We haven't seen any of the Lewis who turns up and throws disinterestedly, which he has been so prone to doing in recent years. A Lewis on form is a contender for any title - he came out firing here last year, recording the highest first round average in a 3-0 victory over Dave Pallett - I'm expecting a similar dominant performance tonight.

Lewis wins this comfortably in my opinion. He's far the better player, and when combined with the right attitude I think that Dekker will be putting his jacket back on after just 3 sets here.
 

[BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2015]

Tyson Fury 80/1. Betfair Sportsbook.

He's 4/1 to beat Klitschko this weekend. Take that as the true chance, and is he really a 16/1 shot to win SPOTY as a newly crowned Heavyweight World Champion? Factor in that i) it's a public vote, ii) he would get a load of media exposure, iii) his win would only be two weeks before the presentation, iv) the public could quite easily latch onto his 'cult of personality'. And I think that this could be a price.

I've never bet on a market like this before so I'm looking for some advice on anything I've missed before pulling the trigger. Anyone got thoughts?

[Players Championship]

Players Championships Finals 2015.
Friday 27th November.

3:30pm

Brendan Dolan vs Simon Whitlock - Simon Whitlock @ 10/11. 2 points. Betway. 

Early but I like this one. I'm really not expressing myself coherently in the write up but I hope you can see the general point. It reads like a ramble.

-Whitlock's good game beats Dolan's good game.
-Whitlock's average game beats Dolan's average game.
-Whitlock's poor game beats Dolan's poor game.
-Dolan has just dipped out of form recently and is on the slide at the moment.
-Whitlock has been out of form for a while but he is showing signs of finding something imo. He won't threaten a tournament win like he used to, but he is definitely playing better than this time last year .
-I expect Dolan to throw his average to poor game and Whitlock to throw his average game.
-Whitlock will think he will win, I'm not sure if Dolan will.

-Analogously, Dolan has begun his journey down the slide. Whereas, Whitlock has already reached the bottom and is in the process of climbing back up. 
-Crucially, Whitlock's slide starts and finishes at higher points than Dolan's slide does.

-Can't explain this point well because I'm not a statistician and I'm mapping between odds and chance, but the graph of Whitlock odds vs density that I have in my mind's eye has a mean between 8/11 and 4/5 but a much smaller median. 
-The graph I see has a strong positive skew, which decays to zero fairly quickly after you hit evens.
-If you took a sample of bookies, you'd get Whitlock 4/6 more times than you'd get him at our 10/11, for example.

-Possibly topping up another point.
-Not all odds are out yet, but I think it's VERY unlikely that this price will be beaten.

[World Series of Darts 2015]

Max Hopp vs Dimitri van den Bergh - Dimitri van den Bergh @ 7/5. 1 point. Unibet/888.

Value shot.

A match between two players I consider fairly even ability-wise.

Hopp has earnt the more £ of the two this year, though both will qualify for the World Championships. It is easy to argue German players are given a leg-up OOM-wise through the weaker home-nation qualifiers in Europe, but the difference isn't enough to mean much really.

Van den Bergh leads the h2h 2-0 although this is fairly irrelevant too.

Both come into the tournament in decent form - Hopp reaching the World Youth final and van den Bergh qualifying through a senior field for this event.

Hopp is marginally the better player (imo) and is the more experienced of the two.

I don't see where the wide 7/5 has come from and I've no issue with a point risk on van den Bergh taking the match at that chance.

[Grand Slam of Darts 2015]

Kim Huybrechts vs Mark Oosterhuis - Kim Huybrechts -1 3-way 180 handicap @ 5/4. 3 points. PP.

Huybrechts has hit 9 180s in 13 legs so far in this tournament. Oosterhuis hasn't even managed a 140 in 10 legs and has only hit 1 two-treble score... Huybrechts has been smashing them in for fun since the Premier League but I'd be surprised if he can maintain his tournament 180ing rate in this match. And I don't expect Oosterhuis to throw so badly in this match, but I think there's still a bet here.

I think the match will have only 5 legs, but there's no price on the correct score any more. The price is due to the short distance but: 5 legs - relaxed - under no pressure - knowing he's going to win, I think Huybrechts hits the 2 180s to fulfill his side of the bargain - from there it's a coin toss between Oosterhuis' first and Huybrechts' third in my book.

[World Grand Prix 2015]

+16.33 points. Can't complain about that!

[World Grand Prix 2015]

Monday

Justin Pipe vs Steve Beaton

The double-in format, the set format and the short length of first round matches make this stage of the tournament difficult to price accurately. But I think you may be getting a decent bet on this.

I was disappointed when these two drew each other – both haven't been playing to their abilities recently and I was looking at two losses had they not drawn each other.

Steve Beaton is a player on a bad run. The last match he won on TV was in November 2013 and the one before that was December 2012. Despite having some bad luck with the draw over the past year, he hasn't backed up his run of losses with any particularly good perfomances. I backed against him with 5 points at the last big tournament in July and have him marked to lose should he qualify for any of the major tournaments in the coming months.

Beaton is the weakest player in this field in my opinion. He got to this tournament with £24750 earned in the pro-tour events over the past year – the cut-off was £22750 and he accrued more money than 7 other qualifiers. But an analysis of where this money was earned is telling: by reaching the final of a European Tour event in late 2014, he earned himself seeding in the first 6 European Tour events of 2015, guaranteeing 6 automatic second round places and importantly 6 £1500-minimum cheques. Effectively, he won £9000 of that £22750 prize money for turning up at the venue. Beaton qualified for only 1 of the other 3 European events this season, and since that run to the final he has only won 4 times in 27 matches against top 32 players.

Justin Pipe has won only one match on TV since December 2013, but he has maintained a steady top 16 ranking through his off-camera performances. I don't expect his poor TV run to continue in the long term, he is too good of a player and in the worst case scenario, he will eventually draw someone who can't deal with his throwing pace. As I said though, had he drawn any top 16 player here, I would have him down to lose this one. As it is, I have this as a 4/6 Pipe 6/4 Beaton match.

The double-in format of this tournament is not conducive to 180 hitting. I did some research to gauge how much of an effect it had, but quickly realised that the key sample I was collecting would be too small (in the time available) to draw any definite conclusions from. I decided to formulate an upper bound on the effectiveness instead:

-You can not score a 180 on your checking-in turn. 
-The average checking-in turn in this format is about 80 (call this 60 for bound reasons). 
-I estimate the number of 180s hit with a starting score between 501-441 at this level (this is the sample that I realised would take too long to fully collect) is about a sixth of the total 180s hit (with almost all of this number coming from a spike at 501 and a much smaller hump at 444-441).

So with a fair bit of noise, it can be assumed that you will get at most 5/6ths of the return you'd expect from a standard start match of the same number of legs on average.

-Pipe has averaged 1 180 per 5.3 standard start legs over the past year.
-Beaton has averaged 1 180 per 6.2 standard start legs over the past year.

You're expecting 1 180 per 2.9 standard start legs in a match between these two.

-There are 10.0 legs per first round match in this tournament.

And 2.8 goes into 10.0 3.4 times. Apply the bounded double-in 'filter' and I think I've got a bet – apply it in real terms and it becomes even better.

Obviously by this point the variance on my calculations was like a bucking horse trying to throw me away from putting my cash down, but I liked these instinctively when I saw them and the statistics somewhat suggest my thoughts were right.

-u3.5 180s @ 4/6. 2 points. Coral. 
-u2.5 180s @ 7/5. 1 points. Betfair.
-u1.5 180s @ 19/5. 1 point. Betfair.

[World Grand Prix 2015]

Mark Webster vs Stephen Bunting – Stephen Bunting to win 2-0 @ 7/5. 2 points. Coral.

Webster took a firm place on my shortlist of players that I expected to struggle in Dublin. Bunting's straight win price actually came back bang on what I thought it be, so it may seem strange that I'm betting on this match, but I think the double-in format provides an opportunity to exploit some value here.

Webster has been in a lull for literally years now, while Bunting has struggled to find form recently but is still throwing good darts. Despite the slowing of his climb up the rankings, Bunting is still an excellent player and I forecast him making the top 10 by the end of his first two-year cycle.

Webster's main struggle during this prolonged slump is his doubling (seehttp://www.dailymotion.com/…/x2d1yr3_mark-webster-and-ron-m…) – in this event you have to double your number of doubles, which of course doubles his problem. Failing to check-in or out on his own darts against one of the best in the world like Bunting and Webster is in trouble.

The pick is by no means a shoe-in hence the small stake, but I'm confident that Webster's double-trouble skews the distribution out of line with the win prices, pushes the true odds under the 7/5 offered, so I'm happy to back this as value.

[World Grand Prix 2015]

To win quarter 3 - Robert Thornton @ 11/2. 365. 2 points.

Not much reasoning to this one. I priced each hypothetical match in the quarter to construct the market, and this comes out as well under where it should be in my opinion.

If Thornton can get past Gurney in the first round, I think he has the beating of Pipe and Beaton in the second and will certainly come back as a strong favourite. He reaches the quarter final with probability ~0.5 and from there you look to the potential opponents.

Ian White vs Gary Anderson in the second round is the key match in the opposite eighth. White is playing superbly of late and I've marked it as a match where he will probably be overpriced. They are currently the best two players in the quarter and I make Thornton the dog should he play either in the QF. But by running into each other in the second stage (and recalling I think my price is different to the bookies planned price on that game), it decreases the chance of Anderson getting to the QF and thus the SF. Gary Anderson is very overvalued in this market, with Thornton getting the main benefit from that. Everyone else in the quarter is priced accurately in my opinion.

[World Grand Prix 2015]

Darts.
Sunday.

Most 180s on the day - Michael van Gerwen vs Keegan Brown @ 8/1. 1 point.

365 have just stuck this market up and I think this is an excellent price.

Short games + the double-in lead to a low number of 180s per game which implies a tight distribution between the 8 games on the night. Blindly, I was drawn to the outsiders because of this - and when I saw that one of the outsiders is a game involving Michael van Gerwen it sprang out at me.

MvG, Dave Chisnall and Michael Smith, 3 of the top 4 180 hitters in the game, are all playing on this night. If they each played 10 legs, I would find it hard to separate them in a 'player with the most 180s' market, so it seems wise to look to their opponents in order to gauge the probabilities in the 'game with the most 180s' market. Chisnall plays Peter Wright, Michael Smith plays Gerwyn Price and MvG plays Keegan Brown. Again, I'd find it hard to separate these players in a 'player with the most 180s market', but would put Wright a very marginal favourite.

The other match of note is Adrian Lewis vs Raymond van Barneveld - I'd place both players in the top 10 180 hitters and I'd probably put this as favourite in the market if pushed.

365 are obviously banking on MvG finishing Brown quickly, shortening the match as much as possible and decreasing the number of opportunities for 180 scoring. I don't think this will happen. I've got a point on Brown to win the match and he will certainly make a fight of it whether in vain or not.

If Brown can keep the match close, this pick has a decent chance of being a winner. I just can not see why this match is double the odds of the Chisnall, Lewis and Smith games. Maybe it's a flaw in my logic but I am not bothered at all about laying down a point on this.

As a final note, with the tightly distributed numbers of 180s, I think that DH rules could well have to be applied in this market.

 

[World Cup of Darts - 11-14 Jun]

Re: World Cup of Darts - 11-14 Jun Wales vs Hong Kong - Wales -1.5 @ 4/6. 2 points. Webster and Lewis both have strongs shouts of Matchplay qualification, and both have had semi finals and quarter finals on the tour this year; inc. a Euro Tour semi-final for Lewis. They are a solid pair of PDC pros, and it is also notable that Webster is a World Champion from within the last 10 years as well. Not much more than reasoning to the bet than if my sums are correct, the bet is (on the assumption Wales will always hold) "do Wales break Hong Kong once in every 4 Hong Kong-thrown legs with >60% reliability?", which I think they do.

[Betway Premier League Darts - Week 14]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 7 May 2015[/TH] [TH]Player 1[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Player 2[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chisnall, D v Bunting, S (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.06[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.15 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lewis, A v van Gerwen, M (19:40 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.58[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.70 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Wade, J v van Barneveld, R (20:20 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.63[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.37[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Taylor, P v Anderson, G (21:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.87 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] James Wade vs Raymond van Barneveld - RvB DNB @ 5/6. 4 points. Early cos I think the price may go. I was expecting it to be a lot shorter anyway (i was expecting 4/5 not to last, tbh)... 1) Barneveld was absolute dog shite for the first few weeks. But since turning up in week 7, he has looked top drawer and is playing some of the best stuff I've seen him play in years. 2) Barneveld has won his last 5 matches, beating every other player that comprises the top 6 in that run. 3) Wade has failed to win in his last 6 matches. 4) Wade can't mathematically qualify so has nothing to play for, whereas Barneveld needs 2 points to guarantee qualification. 5) Wade has only won 3 matches this season. 2 of these against the two relegated players and the last against Barney in his aforementioned shite start to the season.

[UK Open 6-8 Mar]

Re: UK Open 6-8 Mar UK Open. Round 1. Today 13:45. Benito van de Pas vs Jeffrey De Zwaan - Jeffrey De Zwaan @ 7/4. Small stake. This is the first time I have opposed van de Pas in his short career, but I think the price on De Zwaan is too big. -de Zwaan is in better form. Both have played the 6 UK Open events this year, with de Zwaan finishing 39th on £1750 to van de Pas' 58th on £1000. He took the scalps of Phil Taylor and Stephen Bunting last weekend out, and won through q-school on the first day in his only other outing this year. -Inconsistencies. van de Pas has been fairly poor in his few tv appearances, averaging in the mid 80s over his 5 recent games. De Zwaan hasn't shown that he can play on tv either, but he does have the game to throw a 95+ if he's on it (as does vdp).

[European Tour 1]

James Wade vs Vincent van der Voort - Vincent van der Voort @ 7/4. Small stake. No fancy method to this. I just priced up each game and found it difficult to justify more than 13/8 against a VvdV in decent form. He has reached at least the quarter finals in the last 6 events he's participated in, and I have him as being a player to break into the top 16 this year. ---------------------- Brendan Dolan may also be one to look for on the handicap when odds are released. Another player in ok form, against Joe Murnan who doesn't hold a tour card. I had him 1/3, first odds back from Coral are 2/5.

[Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Week 2]

Re: Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Week 2 Most 180s in week - Adrian Lewis @ 9/2. Small stake. Process of elimination. Wright, Wade and Huybrechts can be immediately discounted as they don't score heavily enough. van Gerwen, Bunting and Anderson can all match (or better) Lewis' 180ing, but I suspect all three will be playing fewer legs than Lewis this week. Lewis is bang in form at the moment and is playing Taylor - a fixture that has seen Lewis throw some of the best darts of his career in the past. Chisnall vs Barney is a threat to the bet if it goes the distance. Barney has hit more maximums than usual recently, but I'm not sure he is hitting them at a good enough rate to challenge for the most on the week. And Chizzy blows hot and cold but is arguably a rightful favourite in this market. Another concern is that Lewis' match could end up being anything from a draw to a whitewash either way, meaning we may not get a sufficient number of legs for the 180 count to rise sufficiently. Nevertheless, I like the bet at Hills' 9/2.

[Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Outright bets]

Re: Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Outright bets I was looking at Wade relegation too. He seems overconfident and is actually in a little bad spell, a bad start and his head will drop I think.

[Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Outright bets]

Re: Betway Premier League Darts 2015 - Outright bets Not to qualify for semi-finals - Phil Taylor @ 11/4. Tiny stake. Whether Taylor's game has dropped or the standard around him has risen, he's no longer the sole dominant force in darts that he once was. It took him until the final week to claw into the play-offs of the 2014 competition, but with this year's edition being widely billed as the most competitive ever, he might just not make it this time. Of course, Taylor is still comfortably one of the best 4 players in the comp and I do expect him to qualify, but the 11/4 on not doing so is just a shade too long to my mind. Interestingly, Taylor doesn't have a winning tv record against the other 9 men in the field over the last 12 months with 11 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses.