Jazzer Isaac
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Posts posted by Jazzer Isaac
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Re: Players Championship Finals - 28-30 Nov Terry Jenkins vs Wes Newton - Wes Newton @ 6/4. Small stake. When this match was set up yesterday, I had it down as an evens a piece shout, so I see some slight value in Newton at this price.
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Re: Ladbrokes World Championships > Ante-Post Betting I agree - the odds will only shorten from here. I'm on.
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Re: Players Championship Finals - 28-30 Nov Simon Whitlock vs Dean Winstanley - Under 4.5 180s @ 5/4. Small stake. It's very rare that you will see me backing unders, but I can't help but feel that this line is set way too high. The 5/4 available with Paddy Power seems very good to me. Both of these players are good scorers, but haven't shown much recently. Whitlock has had a somewhat poor year, showing no big signs of a return to form (although he did reach a floor semi-final on the weekend). Winstanley's recent improvement seems to have arrested of late and he might has well have not bothered turning up to the Grand Slam. Even if this match goes the distance (a ~25/30% chance), you're expecting a maximum every other leg, which I think even then is too high for an odds against shout.
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Re: Ladbrokes World Championships > Ante-Post Betting I think Adrian Lewis' poor form is slowly drifting him into backable territory. 14/1 at the moment, and I am hoping that a first round tv loss against Chizzy on Friday shifts him out even further. Lewis always appears to put bad form aside and turn up for the World's, and when he does turn up, he really turns up.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov As the winner would say, cracking little tournament.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov I also backed Smith for 180s tonight. Looked like a defeated man from 3-1. I'm not a Taylor fan, but surely Smith is now another player he has in his pocket.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Grand Slam of Darts - Phil Taylor outright @ 2.5. Small stake. It's going to be really difficult for anyone to beat Phil Taylor over the best of 31 legs. The only two left in the field that I think could do it are van Gerwen and Bunting. van Gerwen hasn't been on form at all this week, and I think Taylor will beat him if they meet. Bunting is untested over this distance - I don't think he has ever played in a legplay match of this length; he has the game to win, but I just don't think he will.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Dave Chisnall vs Keegan Brown - Dave Chisnall to win @ 8/13. Medium stake. I simply can not believe Dave Chisnall is this price. Brown put in an excellent performance to take out van Barneveld last night, but it has completely warped the odds on offer beyond anything reasonably expected. Chisnall is a top 8 player and should not be this long to take out a player ranked sub-64.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Michael Smith to beat Christian Kist. Gary Anderson to beat Mervyn King. Double @ 1.86. Small stake. Smith has really turned up this week, topping the group of death with 3 wins from 3 matches against top 12 players. I think there is a fairly significant gap in quality between the two players, and over the long format, Smith should create a comfortable lead with relative ease. He will be fancying himself to go deep in this tournament and with a relatively easy match in this round, he has every chance of doing that. Gary Anderson and Mervyn have shown their best form for a few years, recently; King reaching the quarter final, semi final and then final of major events; Anderson finally hitting the doubles that he has struggled with for so long. But King hasn't been in the best of nick so far at the Grand Slam, scraping through each of his group matches 5-4 with fairly pedestrian averages; whilst Anderson has somewhat maintained his excellent darts. As mentioned above, Anderson has a dominant record against King and I expect him to improve that further today.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Dave Chisnall vs Robbie Green - Dave Chisnall checkout o112.5 @ 5/6. Small stake. Chisnall's doubles have been flying in so far this week. When this is combined with his noted proficiency on the treble 20, I think the chance of him taking out something over 112 is not as unlikely as suggested over a best of 19 legs match which I expect to go close. Michael van Gerwen vs Terry Jenkins - Michael van Gerwen most 180s @ 10/11. Small stake. MvG hasn't been throwing his best darts this week, but over the longer format I have to considered this selection to be overpriced. Even despite van Gerwen not doing anything special in the group stage, he still matched Jenkins' tally of 4 180s (in 5 more legs, albeit), so I'm struggling to see why the bookies think the 180 count will be so close. I'm considering this as a medium stake.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov
Thanks. Good week so far, hopefully it will continue.Top work Jazzer :clap:clap -
Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Peter Wright vs Simon Whitlock - Highest checkout score o104.5 @ 5/6. Small stake. Both of these players are capable of taking anything out, so I fancy the line over 9 legs. Phil Taylor vs Andy Hamilton - Phil Taylor o1.5 180s @ 5/6. Small stake. Taylor covered this line in the first leg of his match with Kist. Throw anything like he did in that match, hitting 5 in 6 legs and averaging 114+, and this will win.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Vincent van der Voort vs Robbie Green - Over 3.5 180s @ 8/11. Small stake. They have hit 11 180s between them so far, so I was surprised to see this line/price available. Indeed, Green hit 4 alone (covering this line) in his last match alone. Ignoring their 180ing in this tournament, both players can hit maximums freely, so I am giving only little consideration to any variance concerns over the tiny sample.
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Re: Grand Slam of Darts - 8-16 Nov Group D - To qualify - Robbie Green @ 5.5. Small stake. One of the groups of death - I think any two players can qualify. I rate Kong, big scorer and since it's rumoured he is attempting a move over to the PDC in January, he will be wanting to impress. I don't think the chance of him winning two matches is as remote as implied, odds based bet. Phil Taylor vs Richie George - Phil Taylor -3.5 @ 1.9. Medium stake. Phil Taylor vs Richie George - Phil Taylor to win 5-0 @ 3.5. Tiny stake. I don't think anyone has seen George since his appearance here last year. At his best he wasn't that good. And with apparently not playing regularly this year, he will be lucky to get a leg on the board against Taylor. Michael van Gerwen to win Group A. Phil Taylor to win Group E. Double @ 1.63. Small stake. Can't think of anything to write for this. Just think it wins tbh. Note: Bet365 weren't taking multiples on group winners. Group E - To qualify - Christian Kist @ 2.5. Tiny stake. Phil Taylor goes through, Richie George goes out. It comes down to Hamilton vs Kist. Neither of them have done much all season, but when Kist turns up, he really turns up. There's a smidgen of value in him at this price. Kim Huybrechts vs Jan Dekker - Jan Dekker @ 3.0. Tiny stake. Again, an odds based bet. I think Huybrechts is the better player on both of their days, but he hasn't produced his top game recently. If he doesn't pull out his A-game here, and an average Huybrechts plays an average Dekker, I think it's a 50/50 game.
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Re: World Grand Prix - 6-12 Oct Michael van Gerwen vs Stephen Bunting - Stephen Bunting to win @ 11/4. Small stake. Odds based bet. Not really much to this, I just think that the match will be too close to justify odds that long against Bunting. I also like the set line tipped above.
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Re: World Grand Prix - 6-12 Oct Mervyn King vs Raymond van Barneveld. Mervyn King @ 15/8. Small stake. On both of their days, Barney is the better player. But given how inconsistent the Dutchman can be (even inconsistency from leg to leg, set to set), I think Mervyn King is offered at a nice price here. King won't let his head drop and will continue playing his own game throughout, something I'm not sure can be said for van Barneveld. I had the true price on King at around 6/4.
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Re: World Grand Prix - 6-12 Oct A few tiny singles for tonight's darts. I will also get on the treble at 10/1 for a bit of fun. Phil Taylor vs Steve Beaton - Steve Beaton +1.5 sets. 13/8. It's folly to back against Phil Taylor in a darts match, surely? The bookies certainly think so with these somewhat nice-looking odds. Beaton is a good, solid pro and a former world champion of nearly 20 years ago. He will struggle to break Taylor's throw tonight in my opinion, but when one observes that this bet wins if Beaton can hold 3 consecutive times, a feat I think that he is well capable of doing, the ~38% implied percentage is just a tad too small to my mind. Gary Anderson vs Brendan Dolan - Over 3.5 match 180s. Evens. Gary Anderson and Brendan Dolan both come into this match in cracking form, being no.1 and no.3 on the pro-tour order of merit. Indeed, they contested a final in the second of this weekend's Players' Championship events (which today's 2/1 outsider, Dolan, won 6-2). Anderson loves to hit a 180 and Dolan always turns up here, giving this all the makings of a good, good match - given the form of these two and that this has every chance of going to a third and final set, I think that this line is worth getting on. Adrian Lewis vs Daryl Gurney - Adrian Lewis to win, highest checkout and most 180s. 13/8. William Hill only. Adrian Lewis hasn't had much luck at this venue since his appearance in 2010's final, but he is a much better player and should record a comfortable victory tonight. If the match goes as it should on paper, this should win. My only small concerns over this are based on the low number of legs in this match: i) Lewis could wrap the match up too quickly to have got ahead in the 180s count, as Gurney is capable of matching him over the short distance, and ii) similarly, of course, in such a small sample of legs, there is the chance of Gurney managing to nick the higher checkout. Remember, tiny stakes.
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Re: World Grand Prix - 6-12 Oct Michael van Gerwen vs Vincent van der Voort I tipped van der Voort at Hills' 6/1 elsewhere when the odds came out about 2 weeks ago, but I think today's best price of 11/2 at Sky Bet is still worth a look. Bwin go as short as 3/1. First round matches are best of 3 sets, each set being best of 5 legs. Whilst pretty much everything points towards a loss here; i) he has a poor record of 2 wins and 6 losses at the Grand Prix; ii) his doubling isn't that good anyway; iii) he is playing Michael van Gerwen, I think that such a short format provides too large of a variance to justify odds that long against van der Voort. I do think that van Gerwen will win though, so this one should be kept to a very small stake.
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Re: World Grand Prix - 6-12 Oct Think there is some value in the specified player check-out market on Coral, but apart from that I'm struggling to see much. Something I've put elsewhere: Four-fold to be taken to small stakes. 2/1 most places. Justin Pipe +1.5 Adrian Lewis Stephen Bunting James Wade Robert Thornton vs Justin Pipe - Justin Pipe +1.5 sets. World no. 14 Justin Pipe was on my post-draw shortlist of people to back, but the best price of 13/10 just falls short of the 6/4 I was wanting. He plays a much more decorated player in former World Master and UK Open winner Robert Thornton, but I feel 'The Force' is good to win at least one set in this match. Last year's Grand Prix saw an impressive run to the semi-finals for Pipe. Along the way he took the scalps of well-fancied opposition, beating recent world finalist Andy Hamilton and world no. 3 Adrian Lewis, whom he knocked out of the second round in straight sets. Thornton was knocked out in the first round by (an albeit stunning performance from) Paul Nicholson. Both have 1 previous quarter final run to their name in this competition – but it should be noted that Thornton has beaten Phil Taylor in the Grand Prix. Pipe comes into the tournament with ok floor form. Thornton has excellent recent form on the floor, reaching two finals this year and winning 3 events. Since reaching the last 16 of the Worlds in January, he hasn't replicated it on television, losing in the first round of World Matchplay and the second round of the UK Open (playing a qualifier in the first round), while finishing bottom of the non-relegated Premier League players. Although he has appalling tv form, his floor form really is superb and is my main concern over this selection. However, my main rationale behind this selection is based on the unique double-in format of the Grand Prix, which I think will benefit Pipe more than Thornton. Both of these darters are fairly consistent on their doubles, with Sky pundit Rod Harrington once describing Thornton as “one of the best hitters of double top in the world of dartsâ€. Now, Pipe is a notoriously slow player and this will leave Thornton standing at the back of the stage for longer than he will feel comfortable in my opinion, and especially so if he fails to hit a double with his first 3 throws in a leg. When combined with a tendency to get too frustrated too quickly on the oche, as we have seen with Thornton before in the Premier League and indeed his first round match with Paul Nicholson last year, I think its not too farfetched to expect him to throw away few legs in this match, something he can't afford to do against a player of Pipe's calibre. I may still yet have a small stake on the win at 13/10. Adrian Lewis vs Daryl Gurney – Adrian Lewis to win. Not much to this selection to be honest. Gurney is in good form reaching the Irish Matchplay final, I just think the gulf in class is just too big for Lewis to not win this match. Stephen Bunting vs Ronnie Baxter – Stephen Bunting to win. Veteran Ronnie Baxter has qualified for the Grand Prix each year since 2000, but his record is generally poor. Conversely, this will be reigning BDO champion Stephen Bunting's first appearance at the Grand Prix and (to the best of my knowledge and Googling skills) first match in this format. Putting aside a semi-final in 2004, Baxter has never got past the second round. And before last year's 2-0 victory over Colin Lloyd, he had been knocked out in the first round six years running. Whilst this is uncharted water for Bunting, I think he is a better all-round player than Baxter and should comfortably beat the man from Blackpool. James Wade vs Andy Smith – James Wade to win. James Wade won the Grand Prix in 2007 and 2010, and I am expecting a good performance from him in this year's tournament. 'The Machine' has demonstrated he is on the cusp of a return to the top of his game in recent months, winning a European Tour event, reaching the final of another and also impressing on the PDC tour of Singapore and Australia. Smith and Wade have met twice already in majors this year with Wade coming out on top both times 4-3 in the World Championships and then 10-5 in the World Matchplay. Smith won their most recent clash in Leipzig a few weeks ago, but I think he will struggle against one of the most consistent double-hitters in darts – and I really do fancy Wade to improve his 13-5 record against Smith in this match.
William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th
in Darts Betting
Posted
Re: William Hill World Championships > December 18th - January 4th PDC World Darts Championship 2015 Day 2 22:00 Friday 19th December 2014 Phil Taylor vs Jyhan Artut – Phil Taylor over 3.5 180s @ 23/20. Tiny stake. I don't like backing 180s in set play matches due to the higher variance in number of legs. However, ever since Taylor changed his equipment for the World Matchplay in July, I have had a theory that he switches away from the treble 20 less frequently, whilst the odds offered on his 180ing haven't adjusted to reflect a change in his play. The obvious concern with this bet is that we won't get a sufficient enough number of legs. Ignoring the double-in Grand Prix, which would slightly skew the figure downwards, Taylor has averaged a maximum every 3.7 legs since the change in set-up. If it goes as the statistics suggest, we need 15 legs for the bet to win, whilst the bookies have set their total legs line at either 13.5 or 14.5 (depending on where you shop) which is fair, so Taylor will have to slightly up his 180 rate on Friday night. It's tighter than in the past few tournaments, so either a) the bookies have cottoned on, or b) my theory is false. Either way, given that Taylor is desperate to take the title this year, he will have been hammering the practise board as usual and hopefully he is zoned in on the 60 bed for this first round match. I would give the overs a smidgen under 50% chance of landing, so I'm having Betfair's 23/20 to a tiny (1 point) stake.