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mcege

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    Euroleague Qualification

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Euroleague Qualification Lietuvos Rytas - Oldenburg I'm not forgetting about home teams' dominance in this campaign, but I expect to see a really close game. Rytas was far from impressing in the first game, I don't like their squad too much, they don't have enough depth to blow the games out. Oldenburg played ok in first game, but they are simply world beaters. When I compare the squads on paper, I rate those teams to be pretty similar, Rytas has the edge of playing at home, but I don't believe it's enough to win the game by almost double digits. Oldenburg(+6) 3/10 @ 1.962

    Euroleague Qualification

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Varese-Oldenburg Varese returns to international campaign after a long decade, but I don't expect that journey to last more. They have been unconvincing at friendlies (had a losing record, despite they played against Italian teams only, some of them were just mediocre top level teams and even second league teams...) and I rate the squad they built, lowly. They don't have a deep bench and most of the starters arrived this season, couple of them are really overrated players, who I think could've had a chance to play at these levels, if economic crisis hadn't hit basketball in some countries. Oldenburg has a better squad on paper, they didn't have massive amount of transactions during summer. They didn't seem as they are world beaters in friendlies as well, but they played against similar level of teams and as far as I see, they had a winning record. I don't think Oldenburg should be an underdog. Oldenburg ml 3/10 @2.05 Lietuvos Rytas-VEF Riga Rytas is the host of this tournament and it is the team with most appearances and experience in European scene, for sure. But, I don't think an upset is out of table. Riga is coached by Lithuanian R.Butautas and it's a very stable club, they don't change the skeleton of the squad for every single season, coach Butautas is with the team for three seasons. I'm not a fan of Lietuvos' squad, especially their front court lacks both quality and quantity, O.Cook is a spirited guard, without consistency to include teammates over and over. Lietuvos brought D.Bauermann, although I admire his previous work, he disappointed with Polish NT and I believe, it'll take more time him to establish his solid defensive approach, to a team which never seemed to care about defensive end of the court, in recent couple seasons. Lietuvos had 6-3 preseason record, 2 of those W's were with 1 point, and couple of them were against teams which can be no match against Riga. Hosts always had success in these qualifications, therefore I'll keep my stakes moderated, although I believe, they have pretty similar level of squads, Riga is more stable team with a Lithuanian coach. If this game was in any different city of Earth, I would've use my regular stakes... VEF Riga ml 1/10 @3.06

    NFL week 4 picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week 4 picks Saints vs. Dolphins Everybody knows how effective is D.Brees at Dome, but I believe bookies still get influenced by Saints' crazy offensive stats, last season. Yes, Saints is still a pass-first team, but as they have a legitimate coach in sidelines this season, they have more balanced play selection, this season. None of their games exceed 40 points, so far. I'm aware of Dolphins' missing defensive starters, but Saints will miss couple offensive starter, as well, I believe that'll even out throughout the game. Differing to the expectations, Saints seems to have perfect pass rushing, this'll be a long game for R.Tannehill, as his O-Line can't simply protect him. Dolphins conceded second most sacks, so far, and I don't expect this to get better in a noisy Dome. Saints' defensive vulnerability is run defense, they allowed 5+ yards per carry, I believe Dolphins will play run heavy game, unless an early come-behind-back situation occurs. Despite this'll be the toughest test, Dolphins still limited guys like M.Ryan and A.Luck, they have a capable stop unit and I expect them to raise the challenge occasionally at Dome, as well. I would be really surprised to see Dolphins to score 20+ points and I believe they have sufficient defensive quality and integrity to keep the scoreboard under the set total, despite couple missings. Under 48.5 3/10 @ 1.935

    NFL week 4 picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week 4 picks Bills vs. Ravens What did Bills do, so far? They had a brave loss against offensively disharmonious Pats in home opener, then they had beaten Panthers, with a clutch display. But, Panthers lost couple members of already depleted secondary and Bills got lucky with a late interference call. Then, they lost couple more starters against Jets and couldn’t be a factor in the game, despite Jets broke franchise records for number of penalties and penalty yards. Bills will probably miss third best defensive back and they already miss the top two defensive backs of them and their most explosive offensive players had been through minor injuries, throughout the week, as well. Ravens, despite leading until the mid of third quarter, get humiliated in season opener in Mile High, then bounced back with an ugly win against Browns and they thrashed contender Texans, without Ray Rice. Despite the departures of R.Lewis and E.Reed, they might’ve lost some dressing room presence, but as T.Suggs and H.Ngata take front steps after mediocre seasons, Ravens even has a better stop unit. They lack play makers in the offensive end, but I believe J.Flacco will still have sufficient amount of reliable targets to destroy Bills’ depleted secondary, which let rookie G.Smith to record 331 passing yards. Bills is still a team expects solid production from numerous rookies, but I don’t believe Ravens is a good fit for fulfilling such expectation. Bills might keep this close, but Ravens should close this game around the middle of last quarter. Ravens(-3) 3/10 @1.952 Chiefs vs. Giants To trust a team is being led by A.Smith to cover such spreads might not sound wise, but Giants got humiliated against a team missing tons of starters. It was a game after the death of brother of head coach T.Coughlin and that was also the time, when most of people had been crossed Giants out. I was definitely expecting a much better game, but they seemed not to care at all. They start 0-3 and playoffs are almost out of discussion, already. They don’t have a solid running back, since D.Wilson project had been screwed up in just couple weeks and they will not have lead run blocker, FB H.Hynoski, in addition to couple other starters, who’ll miss this game. I expect Chiefs to have its own issues throughout the season, but they started 3-0 with a new coaching staff, new front office structure and a new QB. Despite A.Smith’s inability to throw deep, they still have a balanced offense, “ok” pass protection and bunch of play makers. On the defensive end, this Chiefs team is a beast, their opponents turned the ball over for 9 times in 3 games, despite having a relatively easy schedule, they allowed 11.333 points per game. People may expect Giants to bounce back at some point, but you can look from some another angle, as 3-0 Chiefs team returns to home after an away win, so I can’t give psychological edge to any side. What I see is the team with uncomparably much better current form plays at home, and favoured only 4 points against a team, which lost 3 games in a row with 20+ points difference average, turned the ball 9 times more then its opponents and had 3 straight 60- rushing games. One can argue, Chiefs will be flat, since this is not a divisional game, but I don’t agree with that. They started 3-0 and they have Broncos in the division, so why loosen the ropes, instead of going to 4-0 and let Broncos to think about you... Chiefs(-4) 3/10 @1.952 Lions vs. Bears I expect a scoring fest. Lions is an usual suspect for such fests and it’s no different this season, as well. They allowed 336 yards and 23 points per game so far, and they didn’t face with a such offensively capable Bears team. Also, if Skins didn’t do everything to lose the game, those numbers could’ve been bigger. I don’t fancy their pass rushing and defensive backs, which is not good news, since J.Cutler has a great protection and tons of playmakers to exploit in open field. Bears’ defensive unit is also a bit overrated, L.Briggs and J.Peppers are having pedestrian season, so far, and stud DE H.Melton is out. All A.Dalton, C.Ponder and B.Roethlisberger had good games against Bears and M.Stafford will hurt them, for sure. All Bears’ games ended over, fairly easily, whereas if Skins were a little careful, all Lions’ games would’ve ended over, as well. Bears is more pass-first team as expected with new coach and we all know about Lions’ offensive priorities. I see a game between two of best offensive units around the league, which has not convincing defensive units, on the other hand. I would’ve set a line more closer to 50’s. Over 47.5 3/10 @1.935

    Club Friendly

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Club Friendly Turk Telekom - Karsiyaka TT had been a disharmonious club recently, they almost traditionally completes summer transfers very late and they make lots of transactions during the season. This season seems to be different, as they built a decent squad on paper and all transfers seem to be complete. But, today I don't trust them, important players like J.Shipp and K.Tunceri, rotation player M.Kaya had been faced with some injuries lately, I'm not sure if coach Vrankovic will use them frequently. Also, L.Andric didn't play any of friendly games so far, since he was at EuroBasket until last day, I don't think he'll have heavy minutes today, as well. TT lost last two friendly games, against teams I would rate worse then Karsiyaka. KSK contained all integral parts of last season's successful campaign, except A.Aminu, but they brought E.Batista, who should be enough to compensate that. They structurally didn't change anything from last season as well, whereas TT had never been a consistent club structure wise. KSK had beaten Nizhny Novgorod by double digits lately, whereas TT had lost against Enisey Krasnoyarsk, which I rate a worse team then NN. If this was a league game and TT was without problems, I would've took them to cover, but under current circumstances, I believe KSK will win and cover. Karsiyaka(-5.5) 1/10 @ 1.99 Ted Kolejliler - Royal Hali Gaziantep 5 days ago, these two teams met and Gaziantep won 83-73. That game was played in Gaziantep and this game will be in Ankara, but is that enough to make Ted favorite, since these are just friendly games, anyway? Besides that game, Ted got destroyed against an another mediocre Turkish team, namely Mersin Belediye, whereas Gaziantep put solid performance against an another mediocre team namely Aliaga. Both teams made tons of transactions during summer, but I rate Gaziantep to have the better squad. Differing then previous games, guard C.Tucker is cleared to play for Ted and he'll definitely bring something to the table, but he was just a mediocre player at best, last season, I really doubt his return is enough to justify Ted being set as favorite. Gaziantep(+4) 1/10 @ 1.917

    Club Friendly

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Sassari - Galatasaray starts in 50 mins, so i'll be short. galatasaray already covered against teams like milano and montepaschi during the camp, they didn't have too many players included in eurobasket and they don't have any injury worries, for now. sassari is in a positive trend as a club, but i rate their squads to be at least one, two level worse then galatasaray. they lack size and depth in front court, although galatasaray doesn't have world beater big's, it'll be still too much for italians. i don't think everyone will find decent limits and i didn't check the availability on other bookies, so i'm posting this with minimum stake. ​Galatasaray(-3) 1/10 @ 1.935 (pinnacle)

    NFL week 4 picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Rams vs. 49ers Despite being out of any post season ambitions, Rams had beaten teams like 49ers, Seahawks, Redskins and Ravens at home, last season. They played couple times with 49ers and didn’t lose neither of them. Despite not having a reliable running back, ’13 Rams team is definitely a better version of last season. The transactions made during the summer had positive effects, as expected. QB S.Bradford has more reliable targets, he has a much better O-Line and has couple more explosive receivers, compared to last season. People has the tendency to think like, no team with calibre of 49ers will not lose 3 straight times. It’s not a totally misguided thought, but this is a team scored only 10 points in last 2 games, and one of those games was at home against a woeful Colts’ defense. Kaep played two consecutive horrible games, he got sacked almost 3 times per game this season and he seems to struggle because of receiver shortage. 49ers turned the ball 4 times more then its opponents, it’s obvious they’re not clicking right now, despite I believe they’ll eventually get better and will be thereabouts at the end of the season. 49ers won 3 times at St.Louis in last 5 season, but those wins were against 2-14, 1-15 and 2-14 Rams teams. Rams is returning home after couple games on the road, in last couple seasons they became a team hard to crack at home and they’ll face a 49ers team with numerous problems, which can’t get handled in a short week. I can’t speculate about a winner, but I believe Rams will keep this very close at least, on home turf. Rams(+3) 3/10 @1.971

    NFL week three picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week three picks week 3 recap Michael Vick - Alex Smith: 201-273 +2.886 Patriots - Buccaneers: 23-3 +3 Saints - Cardinals: 31-7 -3 Redskins - Lions: 20-27 -3 Vikings - Browns: 27-31 +3 Jets - Bills: 27-20 -3 Ben Roethlisberger - Jay Cutler: 406-159 -3 12W-0V-10L 66u staked +4.755u %7.205 ROI

    NFL week three picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week three picks Steelers vs. Bears I'll fade Big Ben, again. His best target TE Heath Miller is expected to return from a very long injury, he'll play for limited number of snaps and as primary RB Le'Veon Bell continues to miss time, there hadn't too much thing happened positive for Steelers' woeful offense. Bears' defense had been disappointing so far, but they have bunch of play makers in secondary and against Steelers' O-Line, which continuously allows pressure from opposing defensive front seven's, players like Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman should have big game, tonight. Jay Cutler has a much better protection this season, he only got sacked 1 time in 2 games, he had promising games, but had some unlucky moments. All of his primary targets are ready to play, despite some minor injury worries. Cutler has a pass-first coach and he already seemed to make good connection with players like B.Marshall and M.Bennett. Steelers' aged secondary was almost flawless at deep coverage, but consistently struggled against simple medium-distanced plays, so even though I.Taylor locks B.Marshall up, TE Martellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte will benefit from this. I don't expect Cutler to throw flashing bombs to deep, but I believe he'll consistently produce 7-15 yards range, occasionally. Cutler is around 250 passing yards guy, against every defense in the league. Big Ben got sacked for 7 times, produced one 200- game and one barely 250+ game with a late, coming from back situation. Steelers' overall offensive problems continue and it would be very speculative to expect Big Ben to throw around 280-290 yards. My fair line for this bet is at most a single digit integer. I expect Cutler to win this match up, anyway. Jay Cutler(+16.5) passing yards against B.Roethlisberger 3/10 @ 1.833 (pinnacle)

    NFL week three picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week three picks Eagles vs. Chiefs Eagles will be facing their old coach Andy Reid, he's the one resurged M.Vick's free falling career. He knows mr.Vick really well and I believe he'll pressurise Vick all night long, he has a team which recorded 9 sacks in first two games and they'll not face a team with an outstanding o-line. M.Vick will get hit numerous times and this'll be 3rd game of Eagles in 11 days, his conditioning is always doubtful, I expect a long night for mr.Vick. Alex Smith is not the guy to trust in such a bet, he doesn't trigger too much vertical plays, but he'll face with a terrible secondary and A.Reid is still a pass-crazy coach, anyway. Chiefs attempted passing in almost %58 of their total snaps, A.Smith had been most targeted J.Charles, I expect him to be really productive against an Eagles defense, missing so many open field tackles and doesn't have the solid pass rushing. Eagles allowed 360.5 passing yards per game so far, against a terrible RGIII and against P.Rivers, who didn't have his best receiver almost a complete half. A.Smith will continue to be hesitant, but his receivers will have more production after the catch. M.Vick didn't face with a defensive personnel like Chiefs has, so far, both D.Jackson and L.McCoy had massive games, but produced mostly after the catch, he's flashy and quick guys with playmaking abilities, but Chiefs' defense is no fluke. They'll decrease that production after the catch, I believe. M.Vick produced 180 and 411 passing yards. As you can understand from the difference, these two games had different scenarios. But in both of those games, he lost passing yards match up against the opposing QB's. He'll face with the coach, who probably knows everything about him, his conditioning is doubtful in this busy schedule... A.Smith(+33.5) passing yards against M.Vick 3/10 @ 1.962 (pinnacle)

    UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September i took very small apollon limassol to win. i don't have any info about them, but trabzon traditionally sucks against cypriot teams. trabzon lost both games on the road in local league, so far, once was against besiktas and it was an expected loss, but they got outplayed by an akhisar team, which survived from relegation in last weeks of last season and which has the lowest budget overall, among 18 super league teams. they won both home games, but one was against newly promoted rize and the other was a mediocre team called karabuk. and none of those wins were convincing. apollon has some international players, couple of them are well known like c.meriem, or g.sangoy. trabzon probably has more quality on paper, but they didn't bring anything to pitch so far, this had always been a very intense match up, i expect them to struggle...

    NFL week three picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week three picks Quick edit: I seemed to forget about T.Richardson's departure to Colts, but Browns doesn't have T.Richardson anymore, it's a silly trade from Browns, they'll probably tank to have one of the top spots from the upcoming, very deep draft. Anyway, regarding with the play, I took it after hearing about T-Rich, but when I'm writing a preview, my mind seems to get paralyzed. I believe, Browns will have the most talented receiving crew around till start of the season and despite C.Ogbonnaya is no comparison for T-Rich, he can produce similar amount of rushing yards, as long as Browns will be that passing dependent and his touches won't exceed 15's. All in all, sorry for that mistake in the preview, after I post, I read it and I noticed that important mistake. I took it after I heard the news as I told, but ofc, you're free to follow, or fade. May be, I should read them carefully before posting, not after.

    NFL week three picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week three picks I'll have 5 o/u&spread bets from week 3 and I took all early, so I'm posting them early, as well. Limits are already ok to take and post. One of them had already became a public bet, I can't afford to lose more value with him. The others were so far steady lines, only got half of point advantage with couple of them, but I don't expect any dramatic movement, from now on, at least not towards to bad direction. If you will to follow all of them, you can take the one already became public bet and wait to catch better line, or odds with others. But, as I told, I don't expect too much to change until game day. (I might speculate public to back Vikings more, but I already caught good odds with the line, which I fancy anyway.) Patriots vs. Buccaneers Although T.Brady is expected to have couple more reliable hands back from injury, I can’t imagine that disastrous Pats’ offense to dramatically improve in one week. I wrote my thoughts about their offensive lack of quality and throughout the week, there hadn’t been so much things to change those thoughts. D.Amendola will miss this game as well, both A.Dobson and K.Thompkins played terrible against Jets. So, T.Brady has only one reliable wide receiver, J.Edelman. Bucs’ secondary is definitely not the best defensive unit to bounce back. Gronk is expected to return, but I seriously doubt him to play in most of the snaps, S.Ridley had a terrible game last week, he fumbled and benched in first week. He’ll have monster numbers occassionally during season, but Bucs defensive front seven kept both Jets and Saints at 90- total rushing yards. All in all, I expect another offensively disharmonious game by Patriots. J.Freeman is terrible. Not getting a contract extension most definitely effects him and it’s also kind of obvious, he doesn’t have vote of confidence of coaching staff. He attempted only 26.5 passes per game and completed E of them. To have a monstrous RB like D.Martin is definitely something for a team to focus on rushing, but J.Freeman is better than these. Pats’ defense is not a good match up definitely, its front seven is healthy and solid. I expect Freeman to get pressurized during all game, but Bucs’ rushing numbers will be lower than they were against pedestrian Saints’ rush defense. TE production is the weak spot of Pats’ defense, but Bucs has almost zero TE production. I expect both defenses to dominate the game, as they have simply quality to do that and both opposing offense teams have tons of problems. Under 43.5 3/10 @2 (pinnacle) Saints vs. Cardinals Saints started 2-0, but it doesn’t change they’ve been far from being impressive throughout those games. Against Bucs, they barely won, despite J.Freeman completed only 9 of his 22 pass attempts and Bucs had double digit number of penalties. They did a good job by holding Bucs to only 14 points, but that was a game, they should’ve easily dominated. D.Brees started slow to new season, he completed d of his passing attempts and recorded 3TD-3INT. He got sacked for 6 times in first 2 games, his O-Line is not effective in both pass protecting and run blocking. RB’s only rushed 3.122 yards per carry...D.Brees is still a magical player and he’ll most probably increase his passing accuracy as the season goes on, but without a solid rushing game, I doubt they can blow the games out easily, especially against such an underrated Cardinals’ defense. All L.Fitzgerald, A.Roberts and R.Mendenhall will start, even though they will be missing most of training sessions, during this week. Cardinals started better then last season, as expected. They have worse W-L record, by they are more impressive on the field. C.Palmer made a solid start, he completes almost a of his attempts, his O-Line is stepped up against Lions, after a terrible debut game. Despite not having L.Fitzgerald most of the game, he engineered a W, in home opener. I like Cardinals’ defense a lot, their front seven is really versatile and fairly deep, whereas as the rookie T.Mathieu made a good start, their secondary is also pretty good, the stats will improve week by week. Saints has too many injury worries, despite some early injuries for defensive starters, they’ll miss two more defensive starters NT B.Bunkley and CB P.Robinson. Moreover, there are some minor concerns. Cardinals also doesn’t have a clean bill of health, but they’ll not miss any starters, except long term suspended D.Washington. Considering first two games of each teams, I don’t think there is too much seperating those teams, as Saints’ missings are also added into. Therefore, despite it’d been a public play already, I would love to take Cards’ with a TD. Cardinals(+7.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (paddy power, bwin, skybet, betfred) Redskins vs. Lions There must be something I don’t understand. Even though both had included a long amount of garbage time, 112 points had been scored in Skins’ first two games, whereas Lions is already one of the most overish teams around, as they depend heavily to passing game and they have solid goal line rushers. The status of R.Bush is uncertain, but even if he doesn’t play, this match up deserves a bigger total points line. Both rushing and passing game of Skins improved against Packers, it was impossible to repeat the terrible outing in season opener anyway, but offensive team fulfilled some of the expectations. RGIII had another questionable performance, but Lions’ defense is a good fit for him to play like the RGIII everyone saw, last season. With or without R.Bush, M.Stafford will continue to pass and I seriously wonder how can Skins’ terrible secondary will limit his production. Also both L.Fletcher and B.Cofield had awful starts and despite having a good material on paper, Skins can’t defend against rush as well. A mediocre back up such as J.Starks had his career game against Skins and I don’t want to remember the first week game against Eagles. They conceded 71 points in first two games and I seriously doubt this to improve dramatically in just one week, against an offensively super talented Lions team. RGIII will eventually get better and even he continues to play sub par, his offensive peers are talented enough to score 20+ at home pitch, as long as they limit unforced errors, I believe Skins is a 25+ points team at home, with an “ok” RGIII. If R.Bush plays, Stafford will have full of talented and explosive receivers around him, if he doesn’t play, Stafford might depend even more to passing game. I have a feeling, Bush’s situation will eventually end up being win-win in any possible cases. I expect a scoring bonanza. Over 49 3/10 @ 1.943 (pinnacle) Vikings vs. Browns Vikings might seem to have impressive offensive stats in starting two games. But, the numbers are fluke, for their case. I explained how I saw their offense against Lions, last week and against Bears, things didn’t change too much. C.Ponder continued to suck, A.Peterson produced an “ok” game once again, he simply misses his FB J.Felton and he’ll continue missing him, this week as well. They scored from a kick return and fumble recovery, also Vikings had a very lucky interception in the end zone. Those three defensive plays kept them in the game. Browns has a perfect defensive unit, solid pass rushers, solid options against rush and an over average secondary, in which one of the best corner backs included. They allowed 300- total yards against much better QB’s then C.Ponder and 60- rushing yards per game. Q.Groves is expected to miss the game against Vikings, but this may result rookie B.Mingo to play for more snaps, after a very impressive pro football debut. Third string QB B.Hoyer will start for Browns and this’ll be his second pro football start. This might not seem to be good news, but B.Weeden had his own problems throughout the first two games, so it’s hard to determine Hoyer’s effect on scoreboard. That may result T.Richardson to have more carries, rather than his low numbers in first two games and that will do only good to Browns. Best wide receiver of team, J.Gordon returns from suspension, so Browns will arguably have the best offensive unit of this season on pitch, against Vikings’ defense, who allowed 30+ points, 410+ total yards and sacked opposing QB’s only for 1 time, in first two games. Their defensive stats were expected to drop, due to personnel transaction and sub par performances of some starters. They definitely couldn’t surprise, so far. Vikings is in home opener, but they have too many problems to be favorited with a TD, Browns is simply not the team to trust at all, but they have one of the best defensive units of the league, which should be enough to prevent a blow out. I feel Browns have a fairly big edge at the defensive side of the game, so I believe they can keep this close, at least. A definitely better Vikings team covered this line 5 of 8 home games, last season, with their current problems, it seems logical to rate current team to cover 3 of those 8 games. Browns team covered this line 3 of 8 road games, last season. I definitely see them as an improving side and I should rate current Browns team to cover 4-5 of those 8 games. Browns(+6) 3/10 @ 2 (pinnacle) Jets vs. Bills If Bucs could’ve kept the composure and limit the stupid penalties, Jets’ scoring average per game would’ve been 13- points. G.Smith has too many issues to get better, despite he has a solid O-Line. He has problems with accuracy, he has problems with decision making, sometimes he's late at escaping the pocket, sometimes he escapes quick, and attempt a pass with a shaky footwork, although he has an open receiver and not an immense pocket pressure. But, Jets' offensive incapability is definitely not on Smith's shoulders, he has really few number of reliable receivers. He'll continue missing J.Kerley, that means he'll have to go to disappointing WR's S.Hill, C.Gates and a solid, but limited because of minor injuries, S.Holmes. Jets doesn't have a convincing rushing game, neither. Bills is definitely not world beaters, especially on the road. But, in overall, Bills is better team then Jets, for me. Despite missing two solid defensive backs, J.Byrd and S.Gilmore, I rate both defenses to be fairly even. If Bills didn't miss those names at secondary, I would've definitely rated them having a better overall defensive unit. Bills also has a rookie QB with some mental areas to improve, but he, E.J. Manuel definitely had a better start then G.Smith. He incomparably has too many reliable play makers around him, then compatriot. I believe Bills has much better quality in some of units and I don't see any unit, which Jets has the better of them. I would've set Bills favorite with 1, or 2 points. It might sound crazy to favor Bills, on the road, but this is definitely more related to Jets' current and potential abilities. Bills(+2.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes, coral, bet365, paddy, betfred, stan james...)

    EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: EuroBasket 2013 - Knockout stage Serbia-Spain The tournament had been full of surprises and Serbia covered all times when they were underdog. It's true that Spaniards had much harder schedule, and they have arguably deeper squad. But, I don't trust Spanish coach at all, Spain played with top16 teams for 4 times throughout the tournament and lost 3 of them. Only win was against Croatia, in the very first match of the tournament. Coach Orenga had so many questionable decisions throughout the tournament, he has a deep squad and he obviously can't manage it. For the sake of distributing minutes fairly, he doesn't let some key players to find the rhythm, or some role players got benched despite making solid contribution. Serbians obviously have the coaching edge, they have several solid offensive hands, who'll be enough to prevent that game slipping off in their hands. The tournament already has a tendency for close games, total line is already had been set so low. If this will be low scoring game as expected, then Serbia will cover the spread. Serbia(+6) 3/10 @ 1.952

    NFL week two picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week two picks week 2 recap: Patriots - Jets: 13-10 +2.655 Bills - Panthers: 24-23 -3 K.Thompkins passing yards: 47 -3 Bears - Vikings: 31-30 -3 Ravens - Browns: 14-6 +2.631 Seahawks - 49ers: 29-3 -3 Bengals - Steelers: 20-10 +3 A.Dalton - B.Roethlisberger: 280-251 +3.33 9W-0V-6L 45u staked +7.849u %17.442 ROI

    NFL week two picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week two picks Bengals vs. Steelers I have one another bet from this game and this might seem to be having similar roots, so you can skip, but I took, because I like the odds and I like to fade public in this one, too. Steelers doesn't have a rushing play, so Big Ben might be expect to throw more, but Bengals' defensive secondary is not pedestrian, held J.Cutler for 242 yards. Bengals has a huge pass rushing potential and the Steelers' O-Line, who gave tons of sacks against Titans will not contain Bengals' defensive front seven. Big Ben will be under huge pressure throughout the game and despite Big Ben is known for his abilities outside of the pocket, he may have struggling drives, throughout the game. A.Dalton's best target A.J.Green will be doubled all game, but Steelers' secondary is aged and didn't have a solid game against Titans. A.Dalton seemed to have a good connection with TE's and opposite receivers to Green, named like M.Sanu and M.Jones are "ok" players with promising careers ahead, can step up to relieve their signal caller. Both Dalton and Big Ben attempted 33 plays in first game and Dalton outyarded 282-191. Bengals have similar secondary with Titans quality wise, they have much better pass rushing potential and they're at home opener, after losing first game on the road. Steelers is in bounce back situation as well, but it's not sole enough for Big Ben to be favorited in this match up, for me. A.Dalton(+4.5) passing yards against B.Roethlisberger 3/10 @ 2.11 (pinnacle)

    NFL week two picks

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL week two picks Bengals vs. Steelers Bengals has one of the best defensive front seven’s around the league, Titans has an OK one, but not definitely as good as Bengals and Titans sacked Big Ben for 5(!) times. Steelers had an already bad O-Line after losing Willie Colon for financial reasons, now they have an absolutely dreadful O-Line after losing Maurkice Pouncey. O-Line neither can protected Big Ben, nor created running lanes. Steelers only produced 32(!) rushing yards against Titans. Moreover, only RB who showed some positive signs, La’Rod Stephens-Howling is gone for season and rookie Le’Veon Bell will not be ready for this week, as well. So, the snaps will be shared amongst Isaac Redman, who is capable of being a third-string back up at best and Jonathan Dwyer ,who had been cut by Steelers prior to regular season. As Mike Wallace is gone, TE Heath Miller is the more trustable target for Big Ben, but he’ll miss this game, as well. On the defensive end, Steelers still has a solid unit and an excellent DC Dick LeBeau. But, there are concerns about secondary and facing Bengals on the road, is not a good spot for them. The secondary includes three very good veterans with ages 33, 33 and 32. All of them had a bad campaign in 2012, which is a concern. Despite getting already passed his prime, they lost ILB Larry Foote for season, which will cost them some depth at that position, as they’ll have to expect some production from a 6th rounder rookie, Vince Williams. Besides that position, front seven has couple other issues, James Harrison and Casey Hampton left the team this summer, meaning the coaching staff looks for couple young, former first rounders to produce in every down, which may take some time, as well. Steelers has a good pass rush and a good QB, as long as you give him some time, but other then that, they have too many issues going on to cope with a Bengals team, on the road. Bengals seemed to have problems with rushing game as well, but as rookie Giovani Bernard will start to carry more, their issues will diminish. But, this is not the issue against Steelers’ solid defense against run. Bengals screwed 21-10 lead in season opener, will host a division rival in home opener. They’ll be in attacking mode. And when you consider offensive vulnerability of Steelers and Bengals’ strong points at the defensive end, I really have hard time to imagine how Steelers will score more then 13-14 points and in that case, Bengals’ offense has enough talent to crack that Steelers’ defense throughout the late frames of the game. I expect Bengals to win something like 24-14. Bengals(-6.5) 3/10 @ 2

    EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Croatia - Greece Croatia won 6 straight and covered 4 straight. Greece is in must win situation in order to survive, but Croatia is also in must win, as with a victory, they'll play against Ukraine in the next round, whereas if they lose, there's probability of them being matched with France, or Lithuania. Greek will have to win and wait for Italy to beat Spain and Finland to lose, as well. Greece will miss Kostas Papanikolaou and Loukas Mavrokefalidis. So, Croatia is in a great form and has a big momentum, whereas Greeks' motivation is in doubt, since they will have to ask too much from opponents, even though they win and they'll miss the starting SF, best defensive player in perimeter and a back up big man. I know, I rated Greeks much better team then Croats, in my pre tournament rankings, but I have to update my thoughts, considering the recent form, momentum and Greeks' missings. Croatia(+3) 5/10 @ 1.917 Finland - Slovenia Finns were incredibly impressive in first round, but as the things get more serious, they clearly started to struggle at the offensive end. They got destroyed consecutive times against Spain and Croatia and they're out of the tournament. Hosts bounced back from losing two straight, by consecutive victories in second round, with convincing outplays against solid teams like Italy and Greece. Especially against Greece, despite not getting help from any of the role players, G.Dragic put up great numbers to clinch the W. That was out of characteristics of this Slovenian team and it should be a great boost for them to escape from a day, in which only a single player performed impressive in the offensive end. My only concern is that I think, Slovenia's finishing point will be known before this game, so obviously some starters may get rested, but they will have one, or two full days to rest after today, so I don't expect coach B.Maljkovic to play with a rotation which might eventually kill entire momentum behind the team, in the home court. I'm sure line would've been much closer to 20's, if this was an important game for Slovenia. But, it's not an important game for Finland, neither and depending on the results of early games, this might become an important game for Slovenia and it would became impossible to find this line, then. It's not a play for the guys who like safe picks. But, I'm taking it and posting it, therefore. Slovenia(-11.5) 5/10 @ 1.952

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