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Newton-Heath

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Posts posted by Newton-Heath

    To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Both matches yesterday was successfull :ok Colchester - Hartlepoool Prognose: +0,600 Bet: Lay awaywin Result: 2-0 :loon Swansea - Swindon Prognose: +0,850 Bet: Lay awaywin Result: 2-1 :loon Well, I haven't developed any stakingplan for my system yet and the other matches before Colchester vs Hartlepool and Swansea vs Svindon was just to see if the system could work. Just something to show. So, the only matches I've bet on was yesterdays matches. So if my plan is to win 2 points on each bet my profit would now be +4. My total stake for the two bets I made was 19.4 points. So, the yield will then be +1.206. The question is: should I use flat staking or should I go for flat profit...? As stated above I went for flat profit (2 points on each bet). But if I lose I will lose more than if I use flat staking. It's a matter of risk.

    To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Today I've done some research on these mathes: Colchester - Hartlepoool Prognose: +0,600 Bet: Lay awaywin Swansea - Swindon Prognose: +0,850 Bet: Lay awaywin Despite Colchesters bad performance lately I think they will pull it together and win this one. The rating on Swansea could look like the rating of a winner but I'm not that eager to play both teams as winners. But I'm going to lay both awayteams. Good Luck :hope

    To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Okay, here's the results of todays matches: PREMIER LEAGUE: Boro - Newcastle Prognose: +0,500 Result: 1-2 Outcome: FAILED :wall Man Utd - Arsenal Prognose: +0,933 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Chelsea - West Ham Prognose: +0,938 Result: 4-1 Outcome: OK :loon Aston V - WBA Prognose: +0,346 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Liverpool - Bolton Prognose: +0,893 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon ---------------------------- THE CHAMPIONSHIP: Watford - Luton Prognose: +0,600 Result: 1-1 Outcome: :loon

    To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Today I dicovered an old formula I created in Excell a couple of years ago. I thougth I'd erased it due to formating the hardisk but today I accidentally stumblede across it. So, I decided to test it again on yesterdays results in Premier League and The Championship. Now, this formula show the most expected outcome in a match by using stats, etc. and the idea is to lay the "losing-team". Prognose: The number indicate the rating of the expected outcome. The higher the rating the bigger the chance for the outcome. If the outcome is negative the outcome is more likely to be an awaywin. Wich then might lead you to laying the hometeam. Result: The result of the match. Outcome: If the laying was successfull the outcome would be OK. If not it FAILED. Note: If you choose to use the ratings to BACK the winning-team instead of LAYING the losing-team, then you should only choose to back them when the rating is 1,500 or more (positiv or negative). Anyway, here's the result of analysing yesterdays matches and the prognose for todays matches: PREMIER LEAGUE: Tottenham - Man C Prognose: +1,029 Result: 2-1 Outcome: OK :loon Wigan - Birmingham Prognose: +0,408 Result: 1-1 Outcome: OK :loon Portsmouth - Blackburn Prognose: +0,036 Result: 2-2 Outcome: OK :loon Charlton - Everton Prognose: +0,250 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Boro - Newcastle Prognose: +0,500 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Man Utd - Arsenal Prognose:+0,933 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Chelsea West Ham Prognose: +0,938 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Aston V - WBA Prognose: +0,346 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Liverpool - Bolton Prognose: +0,893 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope ---------------------------- THE CHAMPIONSHIP: Brighton - Soton Prognose: +0,150 Result: 0-2 Outcome: FAILED :wall Burnley - QPR Prognose: +0,350 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon Cardiff - Reading Prognose: -0,150 Result: 2-5 Outcome: OK :loon Crewe - Sheff W Prognose: +0,150 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Derby - Millwall Prognose: +0,350 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon Ipswich - Stoke Prognose: +0,200 Result: 1-4 Outcome: FAILED :wall Leeds - Plymouth Prognose: +0,750 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Preston - Norwich Prognose: +0,600 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Sheff Utd - Hull Prognose: +0,800 Result: 3-2 Outcome: OK :loon Wolves - Coventry Prognose: +0,650 Result: 2-2 Outcome: OK :loon Watford - Luton Prognose: +0,600 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope The ratings presented here should only be used as pointers. I think you have to analyse the matches even further before placing a bet. The most important thing about this system is to find the matches not worthy for bets. Today I might not want to lay Arsenal and Bolton. The reason for this is because Man Utd have 8 games in a row with wins and I think that the might as well lose this one. Liverpool have 5 games in a row with only wins and I think that Bolton could win 1-0. Well, let's see how it goes. This is just another try-out-system so we can't possible say it's the key to succes. But you might as yourself if laying odds instead of backing them could bring more profit... N-H

    Fleet's UK Footie Trebles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles No, you wasn't thinking of changes when you was winning. Too many loss in a run make most punter do crazy things instead of sticking to the original betting-system. And most bookies benefit from punters like that. A losing-streak is bound to happen for everyone. That's life. Instead of changing your original settings for your system you should be far more careful in your selections instead. Remember that it's getting late in the season in and anything can happen. Too often do we see bottomteams win or draw against topteams smply because they have to avoid relegation. And sometimes the topteams seem to relax a bit simply because they have no need of doing their best on the pitch. I think that what's happened in the match between Reading and Wolves. I don't think there's any need for changes but you should be more careful. Remember that it's not how much you win that really matter. It's how much you're not losing. N-H :ok

    lay long distance travellers

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: lay long distance travellers Now, I really found myself eager to find more teams that are travelling a long distance to play far away from home. Aachen vs Dresden could be a fine bet. Dresden have to travel for almost 6 hours by car/bus (5 hr 57 min) to play against Aachen. The match is today by the way. PS! After almost 6 hours on a buss I would feel like this => :puke

    lay long distance travellers

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: lay long distance travellers I've looked at the match between Bolton and Sunderland this weekend. Sunderland have to travel for about 3 hours according to a mapsite I've found on the internet. Now, I don't know when the team travels to Bolton (is it early in the morning or are they traveling so they arrive just an hour or so before the match?) but I do know that teams in my country (Norway) generally travels so they arrive 1-2 hour before the kick off. If that's the case for other teams as well then I guess you could also use that as an adding factor to the amount of time they're travelling.

    Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +2.84% ) Hey, DP! I've noticed that it's been almost a year or so since your first post about this system. So far it have made your bankroll grow almost 40 pct. Do you feel the system have given you the profit you expected? Last year I used a system that made my bankroll grow 400 pct. That's a lot since I only expected something between 30-50 pct. I've tried to use the system this year but some surprises and the odds have not left me with the same profit as last year. :beer

    Martingale, Labouchere, doubles, SAAW, and all that nonsense

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Martingale, Labouchere, doubles, SAAW, and all that nonsense Well, Slapdash might have an masterdegree of something but he seems to forget about the fact that sportsbetting is about knowledge and luck. Not only luck itself like casinogames. IF you have a bad losingstreak martingale COULD ruin you. And IF your losingstreak continues martingale WILL ruin you. BUT it's all about HOW you use the system and WHAT you're betting on. If people like me who use systems like martingale don't understand how it works, how come I get my way around it and making some profit from it? I have been using this system for a couple of years now and i've used it with care. If I don't understand the system how come I make it work? I believe it's all about the way you bet that counts. How you pick your bet and the way you think about your betting. Some people make it work as a bettor and some don't. Does that mean that betting is the sure way kill your wallet? If you make it work as a bettor you woild say"no". If you don't make it work as a bettor and you've lost almost all your moeny you would probably say "yes". The same thing is about systems like martingale. Either you make it work or you don't. If you don't then just don't use de damn system. Just live with the fact that you didn't make it with the system and get on with your life. Please don't try to convince me to not to trust the system. I've found my way to make it work with my betting. And I'm happy with it. :beer

    Martingale, Labouchere, doubles, SAAW, and all that nonsense

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Martingale, Labouchere, doubles, SAAW, and all that nonsense I've read a lot of crap in my life but what you're writing made me laugh. Let me take this step by step: Yoru words, Slapdash: "Forget your staking system." Well, everybody need a stakingsystem. How else would they know the amount to bet? Everybody should try to develope a staking system that works according to their betting. Your words, Slapdash: "But does it depend on whether you have just had five losing bets, or whether your last two bets won, the two before that won, and before that you had a loser? Unless you think that the results of your previous bets affect the chance of the next bet winning, then of course not! If you do think that the results affect the chance, then that should be built into your estimation of the chance of the bet winning, which is one of the factors I listed above." I don't think that punters think that previous results of betting affect the outcome of the next bet. Althoug it might affect the outcome of stake placed at the bet, I don't think that punters believe that it will affect the result. It's how you pick your bets that will have an affect on the outcome of the bet. Not the staking system itself. And I think that most punters are aware of that. Your words, Slapdash: "That's why Martingale/Labouchere systems are obviously nonsense to anybody with a mathematical turn of mind." That's bullshit! Maringale was born at the casinos and is now used in sportsbetting. But there's a HUGE difference between casinos and sportsbetting. Sportsbetting is based on knowledge, stats and luck, and casino is only about luck. By using your knowledge in sportsbetting you have a much greater advantage opposite to the casinos. Martingale shouldn't be used by novices but can be used by veterans who know what they're doing. Most people who are against systems like martingale only focus on losing-strikes rather than the fact of it's what you bet on that counts. The fact is that if you don't know how to pick a bet you will lose anyway. No matter what your stake is or what system you use. let's move on to your words about multibet (doubles): I don't understand your oppinion about this matter. If you play doubles and Chelsea lose or don't win then you're not betting on Arsenal. You believe that some punters might think that Chelseas loss would affect the result in the match with Arsenal. How can you believe that? the reaseon why punters don't bet on Arsenal is as simple as this: Arsenal was a part of the multibet but since Chelsea lost their's no need to bet on Arsenal. The multibet is lost anyway. This kind of betting is how many punters bet. It's in their system og how to bet. Combining Chelsea and Arsenal give you a higher odds rather than betting on them as singles. No one believes that the Chelseas loss will affect Arsenal. If a so called punter believe that he or she should get a job. I rarely bet doubles myself, but if you've developed a system which is using doubles and it's working, well go ahead... Bet on your doubles and cash in the money. Everybody should develope and use a system that works their kind of betting. No matter what others might think. I've used martingale many times and I still use it. I believe I'm an average punter with reasonable stats as results of my betting. i've learned my way of betting wiht martingale and it works fine with me. I'm aware of the downside with martingale but I've managed to stay clear of the traps. Although martingale is a system with high risk it can be a great system to use if it's used with care and respect. Betting is all about how you bet and what system you use. So if you can get your system to work with your bet it's just great. In the end systems like martingale is for punters who truly understand it. And people who's always writing about the downsides of such systems haven't understand how to use it. I also think that if someone doesn't get such systems to work with how they bet, they believe that it won't work at all no matter what. And that just bullshit! I'm just tired of all the negativity about martingale an similar systems . It works for me and i'm happy about it. If it doesn't work for you, then don't use it. it's as simple as that. And you shouldn't spend your money without testing your system first. N-H Cheers! :beer

    JTW 1's previous results system

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: JTW 1's previous results system Hmmm... Well, I think that only sticking to past result will be far too naiv in the long run. I think that by combining past results between two teams with more "up-to-date-stats" you will be able to predict the outcome more accurate. The problem is to find out what other stats to use. I use the trends (it show how the teams have done so far in the league by using curves) which give me a better visual about the teams performance through the season. Anyway, I'm wondering if by adapting the system you have to other sports, such as NHL, NFL, NBA and MLB could be a winning-project..,. What do you think? :beer

    Reliable bettingsystem?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I've found a site that offer you a 2-step bettingsystem for almost 40$. The system is called The Ultimate Football Betting System and I was wondering if any of you have tried it... Is it a scam or is it reliable? The site offer you money back guranteed within 12 weeks if you're not happy with the system. N-H

    Picking the object by odds..

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Picking the object by odds.. My second pick in this project: Boavista - Guimarães (Portugal) => Homewin, Odds: 1.76 To be played: Today (Sunday 18/12-05). Although the hometeam haven't been reliable I do think that they can win this one. The awayteam seems to have to fight against relegation this season. The stats show that Boavista scores many goals at home. Bankroll(start): 200 units In play: 40 units Newton Heath

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