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Dog&Under

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Posts posted by Dog&Under

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    1 hour ago, binomial said:

    playing

    Adelaide +8 no Bowen and revenge for Bendigo but this looks like a good spot for bendigo to throw the game again

    SEQ -4.5.

    I really think there could actually be something to that - ie the game from last week you're referring to. 

    the injury to Madgen, the huge line movement .... dodgy as **** 

     

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Ashtee said:

    I was up four units with them this season, although dropped a couple during AFL, so was starting to wonder but obviously an early limits policy has come in. Not sure if they still take sizable late bets, do you know? It was only 1.5hrs before the game yesterday that they limited my Perth @3.80 bet (they risked $500 but just risked $100 on another that was an early line).

    TAB (NSW/Vic) have got mean all of a sudden too. They have such a huge market share, yet a few times this season have FULLY rejected my bets, then used the information to move their lines. Perhaps I should send them a bill.

    Traditionaly Australian bookmakers have welcomed winners as a way of honing correct odds. I actully don't mind books having an early limits policy, providing they'll let you have a dip later, unlike the dothering farts running some of the Euro books. Thumbs up to bookmakers like Pinnacle and Sportsbet in this regard. Pinnacle limits on WNBL are now double what they were a couple of years ago.

     

    The explanation I received re this morning's query was along the lines that the further out from an event, the less they'll take and at that hour of the morning they won't take a risk of more than $200 (although that would probably be higher for mainstream US sports I imagine).. 

    I'm surprised you couldn't get set for that amount on Perth ML - a few years ago I had a very minor dispute with them over a 1k bet (to win 950) and remember them describing it as a "small bet", so that's a little odd.

    Yeah, all other books beside pinnacle are dead to me. The f*ckery they started a few years ago just made it impossible. 

    You've probably noticed that many of topsport's markets are tied to pinnacle's ... WHen I bet the stars at the -2 last night, pinnacle also took the market for that game off the board. If pinnacle offered markets on netball I'd be back to them in a flash. 

    I notice you gave Sportsbet a wrap, do they no longer play games ?  

     

     

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Dog&Under

    20 minutes ago, Ashtee said:

    Is that TopSport? They limited a couple of my bets this round which they didn't seem to do previously.

    Sure was... They're the only book I've been able to bet with since about 2009 when all the "fast food" commercial bookmakers decided to get rid of long term winners. I've taken quite a bit from them over the past six years most of which was from netball, NBL & WNBL (ie lower profile sports) but they've never played games with me - until this one. 

    I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt given it was very late at night but I've sent them an email asking what the reason was for this.  

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    The mainstay of my capping is situational and motivation based, so nothing irritates me more than backing a lame horse..

    especially when they're armed with as much talent as that Bendigo side still has. Clearly something is rotten in that group and with Bernie no longer there to reign them in, bad habits / attitudes are rife. 

    ^ believe it or not I made tomorrow's game a PK ...  

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Dog&Under

    And right on cue, another tin-man performance from the pathetic Bendigo Spirit

    after skipping out to an early lead you just KNEW they were going sleep walk through the second quarter.. this team has turned 'we don't care' into an art 

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    I was about to ask D&U if was handy to a TAB (no market up at Topsport), because Tattsbet currently have Boomers 2.90 @ +5.5 @ 1.90.

    Around 9:00am I took 3.15 Bet365 and the rest at 3.10 & +6.0 Tattsbet. 3.50 was up at at few bookies late last night.

    two emails later, I finally had a market for that game ... :eyes 

    all part of the weekend routine during WNBL & Netball seasons - reminding my book to put markets up

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Dog&Under

    pretty good push for Adelaide, opened +6.5 now +4.5 ... seems strange barring significant injuries for Perth.. this is still the same Adelaide that was thumped from pillar to post until last week. 

    Townsville v Sydney is pretty much right where I pegged it (-7.5) .. Fire always strong off a loss but Sydney always interests me as an underdog

    still waiting on a market for the other game at my book although I'm seeing SEQ -5 elsewhere. Looks a tough backup for the Stars given their lack of bench and starters all logging big minutes last night 

    WNBL 2015/16

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted · Edited by Dog&Under

    With you on Bendigo (-12) .. absolutely hate the play but had to do it by my numbers (marked them -20 pt favourites)

    just as I suspected, spirit completely disinterested, lazy, pathetic  .. congrats in advance to adelaide on their first win of the season. 

    never again with this team as favourites, they're just taking the piss nowadays 

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