Toast
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Posts posted by Toast
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Re: Royal Ascot discussion thread 2015 1st race looks to be the best of the meeting. When freddy Head says that Solow is the best he's trained, then take notice. Moonlight Cloud, Charm Spirit and the wonderful Goldikova are classed as inferior!!! Able Friend is in for a shock. Straight mile, fast ground and lightening pace makes this a thorough stamina test. Sha Tin and it's 2 furlong run in, it ain't. Upto now, only the St James Palace and Prince of Wales interest me...don't like Gleneagles going around a bend, he's such a long strider, going around a bend won't suit, he needs a long straight to show his best. Make Believe, if he makes the trip would carry my money. Whilst in the POW, if good or softer, then The Great Gatsby is my interest.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. As for future races, my 3 to take from the race are, Storm The Stars, whom ATM, is not top class. His best chance of group glory would be the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground. He's proberley better on courses with a short finishing straight. Epicuris, whom as predicted, was an arsehole pre race, and considering his antics and poor draw, ran a great race. Ground was also wrong for him. Now we know he gets the trip, especially if he learns to settle, then ATM, he's an ew play for the Arc at Chantilly in October. Kilimanjaro, was held up at the back and kept on quite nicely to finish mid div without ever looking like winning. Takes an eternity to find his stride, so the longer trip and long finishing straight of the St Leger should be ideal.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Well Dettori proved 2 things. Form is temporary and class is permanent, and I was wrong about the horse staying, winning the race quite easily and in a very good time. Eclipse is his next reputed target, which is logical, as this race was set up for a finisher, which gave him every chance of staying. If you ever want to see a horse commit suicide, watch Elm Park. For a suspect stayer on unfavourable ground, he helped to set a suicidal pace with Hans Holbein, he can't be touched until the autumn over a shorter trip, softer ground and lesser company. Epicurus and Storm The Stars then kept up the pace, only to run out of stamina and leave the race to the 2 horses who were last to make their move. Jack Hobbs ran a cracker on ground deemed faster than ideal. Next target seems to be the Irish version in 3 weeks. 3 problems spring to mind. Fast ground is the norm at the Curragh, the race coming too soon and Coolmore realising that just maybe, Highland Reel is their middle distance horse this year. Whilst Giovanni Canaletto will be better suited to the Eclipse if the ground softens.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Good to firm is now in the ground conditions, which is bad news for Elm Park and Jack Hobbs. If you've not had a bet already, then I would wait until as late as possible I case of non runners and rule 4.
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Re: flat racing friday 5th june inc.epsom oaks
£4000 was just traded on Legatissimo @ 1.01 & around £5000 @ 1.02' date=' etc!!![/quote'] Goes to show how far betfair has gone down the pan..would have been an awful lot more a few years ago. -
Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. So, after all that, I'm left with Rogue Runner and Storm The Seas. Will add Kilamanjaro for exacta and trifecta reasons. Thanks for reading and good luck if following.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Jack Hobbs.. The only horse in the field that matches my trends....but he's very easy to take apart. His trainer is worried about fast ground. How many derby winners have even driven past Wolverhampton, never mind made their debut there? Held every chance in the Dante before fading, proberley due to the ground where he hung badly. And my own personal favourite, it's entirely possible that the Dante came to soon after his Sandown win..proberley needs a decent 5 week plus break between his races.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Kilimanjaro...won both starts this season including lingfield derby trial where he handled the course perfectly well, but not in an impressive style, eventually getting on top in the last furlong. Looks the most likely of the o Brien runners to make the frame IMO. Difficult to crab him in what is a poor year, but he lost his 1st 2 races by a total of 30 lengths, and that is not a sign of a derby winner, even in a poor renewal.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Hans Holbein...put up the best trial performance when winning from start to finish at Chester. Relished the ground that day, so faster conditions are a worry. As it, Ryan Moore deserting him. Has stamina in abundance and looks a future cup horse.Low draw is also a worry if he, as presumed, is there as a pacemaker.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. And finally, other than my 2 bets, the others, whom on paper, have the best chance of staying the trip. Giovanni Canaletto, price has contracted sharply due to Ryan Moore taking the ride. Made a belated reappearance after missing his intended Chester run, Keith a nice performance in the Ballysax. O Briens normally improve for the run, but his preparation seems to have been rushed. O Briens body language when talking of him earlier wasn't encouraging and he seems scared of the ground going against him. Irish derby seems a better target providing there is dig in the ground.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Does anyone take any notice of this dosage theory, where it seems that only the sire is taken into consideration? Just seen Qualify win the oaks, despite getting very little attention in te press. Using the dosage, being by a sprinter, she'd have been given no chance. Personally, I like to see the dams form as a stamina pointer, in this case, all her winning/ running had been done over 12f and more....dosage smosage...anyone remember Sea The Stars dosage? Was given no chance, yet was out of an arc winning mare...remember this for the derby.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Rogue Runner...100/1 ew...nrnb Betfred Nope, not lost my marbles, but seeing as though I've eliminated 8 runners who either won't stay or not running, I may aswell use my best of times refund on a true stayer. His chance is not obvious at all, considering he was beaten in a group 3 lto. The reasoning comes in his nationality. Whilst English, French and Irish breeders have recently become hell bent on producing milers and 10f horses, hence the reason for the upgrading of certain races and increased prize money, German and Japanese breeders still want the 12f plus horses. As seen in recent seasons with the likes of Pastorious and Danedream, the Germans know how to produce high class stayers, also note the number of NH German breds now racing over here. Not saying he's anywhere near as good as those horses, but his breeding is labelled with stamina, the dam comfortably got 11f in a group 1 whilst here sire, Lomitas was group 1 class over 12f. Place is his best chance, but I'm more than confident he'll beat half of this field at least, despite his poor draw.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Zawraq....by Sharmadal who was group 1 class upto 10f and not noted for breeding anything of note over further. It's a similar story on the dam side from Height Of Fashion to Sarayir, 8-10f looks the optimum trip. Another negative is, he's not run in almost 2 months, not withstanding his recent injury scare. The Eclipse next month would be a more logical target, but only if he has a prep race.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Success Days....if the owner wants to throw away 75k in the future, can he please throw it my way? Quite simply, both on sire and dam side, he will not stay.May have looked half decent in winning small field, soft ground races in Ireland, but this is totally different..he will pan out in either of 2 ways...he will lead then get swamped, or he won't lead and will sulk...if this wins, I'm giving up the game.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Moheet..... Won his only start at 2, But has twice been comfortably beaten this season. There is hope on the breeding side that he could stay, but, not being able to win the craven whilst in receipt of 3lb means that if this race is truly deserving of its status this year, then he should have done better. The main worry though is the trainer whom like his father, is/was not noted for training anything top class over further than a mile. If that don't scare you, then the trainer entering him in just about all group 1 races coming up from a mile to 12 furlongs says he doesn't know what his best trip is.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Elm Park....amongst the top rank at 2 including winning the group 1 Racing Post Trophy. Like Golden Horn, there are huge worries on the stamina side, his sire is not noted for group 1 class horses and he has a strong preference for soft ground, which he will not get if the forecast is to be believed. My biggest worry though, despite it being his 1st run of the season, was how he folded so quickly in the Dante.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Now to eliminate those horses that are doubtful stayers. Every year, we have fancied horses who just do not stay, neither on course, or on paper. Golden Horn...supplemented to the tune of 75k after his Dante win. But, in all honesty, the race fell apart for him and he ran on through beaten horses. When his owner, trainer, breeding experts and dosage tossers agree that it's highly unlikely that he stays, then anyone taking 7/4 should be put in a straight jacket. Will be more like 7/2 on the day.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Now the 5 day decs are out, it's time to eliminate those no hopers, who would struggle to compete in the handicap that kicks off the day. Before that, with this years renewal being of poor quality,IMO, a lot of stats will go out of the window, and in all honesty, in an average year, the winner, when compared to previous winners will be about group 3 standard. So the first to eliminate are Rocky Rider and Carbon Dating. Epicurus also goes on account of this race being an afterthought. He was prepping for the French derby, but due to being a head case around the stalls and not having a handler with him, he was routed here. Too highly strung, if he gets wound up on the empty Parisien tracks, his nerves will be shot at in front of 100,000 people at Epsom.
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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Best Of Times 50/1 ew nrnb...William Hill. Has won 3 of his 5 races, won a race by more than 2 lengths, but doesn't have the word quickened in his race analysis, but there again, the vast majority of the field do not, which again indicates the lack of quality in the race. The key to him is fast ground, which if the weather forecast is correct, he should get. Sired by fast ground loving Rahy and out of a 12f winner, stamina is unquestioned. His 1 blot was his debut on soft ground. His best run being his latest giving 3lb, but coming out best at the weights in the predominate at Goodwood. Handled both Newmarket and Goodwood adequately, so will be fine around Epsom.
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Re: flat racing sunday 31st may prix du jockey Sumbal 9/1 at William Hill. Totally unexposed and has nice draw, which the 2 favs don't have. Perfect 3/3 and now encounters better ground, which on pedigree shouldn't be a problem. Has won his races by total of 13.5 lengths. Unfashionable trainer makes his price.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
I gave up on official ratings a long time ago. IMO, most are based on hype. Take Australia, wonderfully overhyped, eventually beaten by The grey Gatsby, who for some reason wasn't rated any better. Adelaide was the best middle distance horse in the stable, but for breeding purposes, they were campaigned separately, with Adelaide playing second fiddle. Its my belief, in the past 3 years, that except for the odd exception, horses are poorer in quality. Possibly due to over breeding.its not too bad actually ......last year first two home were rated 117 and 120 prior to derby and this year golden horn 118 and elm park 117 are on a par so on paper they should be in the places unless something else jumps up ... -
Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Western hymn for me. Unbeaten over 10f below group 1 level. Got the classic 5 week prep aswell. On your last post, you put up Consort, on whom I commented on, especially if stuck to a mile. He debuts in the following race, proberley with an eye to the St James Palace. Would have to win this commandingly if he is to e considered good enough to take on Make Believe.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
I know it's not the greatest Derby ever' date=' but come on![/quote'] Its a shocker mate. Of those more likely to run, none stand out as world beaters. I want be going anywhere near a 3yo this season taking on older horses in group races. When I 1st looked at this the other week, the only horse to jump out at me was Highland Reel, and he's off to chantilly instead. The second was how can a Wolverhampton maiden winner be derby favourite...pre Dante. That told me it is a dreadful derby. Reckon a few stats will go out of the window. -
Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Storm The Stars 33/1 William Hill. Fails on the winning %, only on 40, but on closer inspection, 2 defeats were by less than a length, 1 of which was to Golden Horn. Passes on the 2l winning distance and the all important quickened or similar in 1 of his post race write ups. Guaranteed to stay on both sides of his parentage, unlike Golden Horn, and judging on his Goodwood run, will act on the course. For the sake of 1/2 length, do you take the 33s for a guaranteed stayer, or 7/4 for a doubtful one...no brainier in my book.
flat racing sat 27 jun
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Thankfully, Aiden o Brien has finally realised that Highland Reel is his number 1 middle distance 3yo this season and runs him over his correct trip. Took the 7s ew at ladbrokes earlier in the week ( after timing I know) hoping that there would be 7 runners or less. Qualify won the oaks running on through beaten horses and Ryan Moore stopping riding yards from the line, whilst Jack Hobbs has won a sand maiden and a handicap. Comfortably beaten in the Dante and if the derby winner is a genuine group 1 horse, then being beaten 4l only puts JH as a group 2 nag. I stand by my Epsom summary that JH will be best when given a 5 week plus rest between races...