Binchy
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Posts posted by Binchy
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 3.20 - Hex - Escardo 1pt 16/1 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-117, 22%, +37.56) PLACED -1 Bets - 3 Winners - 2 Staked - 4pts Returned - 16pts Profit/Loss - +12pts Strike Rate - 66% Can have no complaints, bumped into one who won in convincing fashion to complete a course and distance double, plugged on well for second, perhaps gave the winner to much of a start but don't think it made much of a difference in the end. No selections today.
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Re: The Saturday Lucky 15 Thread £1,5OO+ Return Well done Rupert, I will not expect a reply until the morning as I suspect you may be down the pub!
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 5.55 - Ain - Shelford 2pts 11/1 (Betfair) - Wayne Hutchinson in maiden hurdles (18-91, 20%, +36.07) N/R 6.30 - Ain - Gullible Gordon 2pts 3/1 - Peter Bowen @ Aintree in chases (8-47, 17%, +35.50) WON +6 7.35 - Ain - Dineur 1pt 7/1 - Peter Bowen @ Aintree in chases (8-47, 17%, +35.50) WON +13 Bets - 2 Winners - 2 Staked - 3pts Returned - 16pts Profit/Loss - +13pts Strike Rate - 100% Why oh why did I stop? Todays Selection 3.20 - Hex - Escardo 1pt 16/1 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-117, 22%, +37.56)
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Re: The Jockey Thread 2.40 @ Sandown. Richard Hughes on The Alamo. I'm not pocket talking and it could just be my eyes but does anyone else think he stops riding one the horse goes into 5th to protect any future mark? The horse gets outpaced around 2f's out but runs Hughesie switches to the outside and the horse picks up quite strongly but it appears to me that he could get a lot closer to the 3rd and 4th horse. No doubting it would not have got 1st or 2nd. I'm a Hughes fan so it's not a witchhunt or anything just interested in other opinions?
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure Tomorrow Selections 5.55 - Ain - Shelford 2pts 11/1 (betfair) - Wayne Hutchinson in maiden hurdles (18-91, 20%, +36.07) 6.30 - Ain - Gullible Gordon 2pts 3/1 - Peter Bowen @ Aintree in chases (8-47, 17%, +35.50) 7.35 - Ain - Dineur 1pt 7/1 - Peter Bowen @ Aintree in chases (8-47, 17%, +35.50) Will be resetting the bank so the adventure resumes here.
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure Just stumbled across this thread again I was going through the site. It came to quite an abrupt end as the Jumps Season was coming to an end and the flat season beginning. Unfortunately the system has been pretty unsuccessful on the flat and also on the AW, whilst I ditched the jumps for a while to concentrate on the flat. I am going to revive the thread for the Summer Jumps as I don't see any reason why the stats gathered would not be consistent all year round rather than during the winter jumps season. I will carry on as we started with combinations that show a 16% strike rate but will increase the level stakes profit/loss to +£35. Selections will be up tomorrow (if there are any jump meetings, I haven't checked). With regards to the flat, I am currently trialling a number of systems, one of my own, others based on ones I found online. The one of my own is looking at 25% s/r and +£35 p/l. Also being trialled is a top weight system, traveller system, trends system, beaten favourites and my own selections.
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Re: Where's my profit gone? Rio, As a relative newcomer to this forum I can honestly say that the first thread I look out for is your racing diary. I stumbled across when having a mooch around the forum about a week after joining and I find it throughly enjoyable reading, so much so that I read it from page 1 all the way through! I'm sure i'm not alone in saying keep up the good work and don't feel that you need to justify yourself to other forum members. :ok
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Re: RIP Sir Henry Cecil RIP Sir Henry. As i've mentioned on the daily chat thread, responsible for the best horse I have ever seen in the flesh.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Breaking news on both BBC and ATR that legendary trainer Sir Henry Cecil has passed away at tha age of 70. Sad sad day for racing and responsible for the best horse I have ever seen in the flesh. RIP.
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Re: Trading Thanks for your assistance gents, so essentially it could also be done by finding a horse on the morning prices that you think will be a lot shorter at the off? For example, Hugh Taylors selections usually shorten to near enough half the advised price, obviously it's quite difficult to get on at the prices he advices but that would be the sort of thing you were looking at?
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I've seen a lot of talk hear and there regarding Trading on Betfair, now I think I have a basic grasp of it but people seem to be making it sound a lot easier than it is. Would any of you joyous souls care to explain the basic principles of successful trading, as all the guides I have looked at online seem to want to over complicate things. Any help would be much appreciated :lol
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Re: BBOTD > Friday 7th June 9.20 - Hay - Ennistown - 9/1 - Bet365 BOG Doesn't appear the most obvious choice having noted he finished second in a two horse race when odds on favourite on his last start. However, he travelled well that day and looked like a step up in trip would suit. Also been given a workable mark and seems to have been discounted in this contest to readily
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Re: Binchy's Lucky Thread 3.15 - Thi - Millkwood - 6/1 - lost - Ran down the centre of the track pretty much alone with no cover throughout. Showed up well until push came to shove and finished towards the rear. 4.25 - Thi - Ingleby Angel - 5/4 - won - Well judged ride by Tudhope as I thought the leaders may have been getting away as they turned for hope, but Ingleby Angel travelled strongly throughout and never looked like losing once he got to the front. 4.35 - Ffo - Royale Knight - 11/8 - placed - Ran pretty well enough but couldn't find anymore in the end, when the runner up and winner went past. 5.00 - Thi - George Rooke - 11/2 - No excuses this time, backed into half the price and went off favourite but found nothing for pressure. Staked 60pts Returner 8.5pts -51.5pts Todays Selections : Will go for a 50p 'Lucky' 31 today 3.20 - Lin - Surrey Dream - 10/1 - Finished 6/9 last time out at Goodwood over 6f but was running on well late on and now dropped in class and upped to 7f, not to mention an 8lb drop in the weights. Should give a good account in what looks like a weak contest. 3.45 - New - Albaqaa - 10/1 - Won fortunately last time out as runner-up's rider failed to ride out the finish, up 6lb's for that but with 5lb claimer on board and dropped to 7f more can be expected. 4.45 - Bat - Loraine - 3/1 - Fair effort when midfield last time out at Warwick, dropped a pound for that effort and still unexposed in another weak contest 6.25 - Str - Risk - 6/1 - Ran fairly well last time out despite not getting the trip, now backed to a more suitable distance he may be able to break his duck over fences with one of my favourite jockeys Nick Scholfield on board. 9.20 - Hay - Ennistown - 8/1 - Doesn't appear the most obvious choice having noted he finished second in a two horse race when odds on favourite on his last start. However, he travelled well that day and looked like a step up in trip would suit. Also been given a workable mark and seems to have been discounted in this contest to readily.
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Re: BBOTD > Thursday 6th June 3.15 - Thi - Millkwood - 5/1 - Bet365 BOG A decent return run at York a couple of weeks ago, now dropped in class and showed enough at two to believe there is a race in him.
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Re: Mr Dettori As I've only really got into racing the last two or three years, the only jockey I was really aware of before studying in depth was Dettori, due to his public profile. I obviously understand he ws the ebst jockey in the world in his day and would not doubt everyones opinion on that as I have nothing to base it on, but I can honestly say that unlike the likes of Moore, Hughes, De Sousa, Hanagan etc. The fact that Dettori was on a horse I fancied would not make me fancy it even more. I think Neil Callan is quite an underrated jockey as is George Baker who doesn't get the rides he deserves on Turf.
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Re: Binchy's Lucky Thread 2.20 - Nab - Rosslyn Castle -placed - Again travelled strongly for much of the race but jumping let the horse down in the home straight and finished second 3.50 - Nab - Suerte Al Salto - N/R 5.20 - Nab - Orion Express - Fell - When your lucks our, your lucks out. Well clear approaching the second last when took a heavy fall. 9.15 - Rip - Filatore - Lost - Found no extra for pressure after tracking the leaders throughout, finished mid division. Staked 45pts Returner 5pts -40pts Tomorrows Selections 3.15 - Thi - Millkwood - 6/1 - a decent return run at York a couple of weeks ago, now dropped in class and showed enough at two to believe there is a race in him. 4.25 - Thi - Ingleby Angel - 5/4 - Career best performance last time out when winning at Redcar under similar conditions. 6lb's up in the weights but I don't think that will stop this horse who seems to be progressing nicely. 4.35 - Ffo - Royale Knight - 11/8 - On a hat-trick today and still don't think the handicapper has caught up with the horse despite 6 and 7lb rises in the last two races, should go close again. 5.00 - Thi - George Rooke - 11/2 - Has excuses for both starts this season and if retaining any of promise shown as a two year old the horse is potentially well handicapped.
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Re: Best bet of the day 5th June 2.20 - Nab - Rosslyn Castle - 7/2 - Bet365 BOG Ex Flat Horse who ran well for a long way last time out tracking the leaders before weakening on the soft ground. Tomorrows conditions should be more to suit having been dropped back by a furlong and AP gets up again for the ride, boasting a 29% strike rate at the course over hurdles.
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Re: Royal Ascot Betting Strategy? I will admit to being one of the people who like to be involved in every race at a big meeting. However, I don't see being involved in every race and being disciplined as mutually exclusive. What I tend to do is, say for example on a normal day I would pick out my best bet and put £25 on. Instead of that, I usually get involved in every race in a fun way, for example, a couple of lines on the placepot and a 25p Lucky 63.
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Re: Binchy's Lucky Thread 3.00 - Rip - Special Meaning - placed - Never really travelling, by the time she got going the bird had flown but ran on well to take second place. 6.25 - Yar - Estiqaama - won - Made all and looked like the winner all the way, had her rivals at it from a long way out under a pretty much hands and heels ride from Paul Hanagan who i've seen on a couple of occasions recently ride well from the front. 6.55 - Yar - Flynn's Boy - placed - Another that got going too late but kept on well and maybe needs slightly further than 7f now. 7.40 - Hex - Corky Dancer - placed - Did indeed repeat the tactics of his last time out win but unfortunately found one too good on this occasion, weakening coming into the home straight aas the 8lb rise took its toll. Staked 30pts Returned 4pts -26pts Tomorrows Selections : 2.20 - Nab - Rosslyn Castle - 7/2 - Ex Flat Horse who ran well for a long way last time out tracking the leaders before weakening on the soft ground. Tomorrows conditions should be more to suit having been dropped back by a furlong and AP gets up again for the ride, boasting a 29% strike rate at the course over hurdles. 3.50 - Nab - Suerte Al Salto - 11/4 - Overturned Prospect Wells on chasing debut LTO when jumping well throughout. Slight drop back in trip and no reason not to go close again. 5.20 - Nab - Orion Express - 6/1 - 3rd over course and distance when last seen in April but given that the soft ground was not to the horses's liking it was a creditable performance. Lucy Gardner takes off 5lbs and although hasn't won since 2011 looks sure to go in again anytime soon if running to the same level as last time. 9.15 - Rip - Filatore - 5/1 - Won LTO by 4 lengths in a good staying performance. Up in class here and up 5lb's in the weights but Daniel Muscutt takes off 7lb's and with conditions to suit, Filatore looks a decent price to follow up with the main market danger being a horse coming in from a hat-trick over hurdles and I am happy to take Bit Time Billy on.
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 4th June 7.40 - Hex - Corky Dancer - 5/2 - Bet365 BOG Won over course and distance last time out making all. Up 8lbs for that victory but Jason Maguire an interesting booking and looks like the same tactics will be employed again and can go close.
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Re: Binchy's Lucky Thread 4.00 - Che - Croeso Mawr - lost - Probably in need of the run in hindsight. 4.15 - Lei - Exceedexpectations - placed - Ran well but was well beaten by the leader, could have done with an extra furlong. 7.00 - Win - Mince - lost - Very disappointing and perhaps to much use was made of the horse early on. 7.45 - Car - Diamond Blue - lost - Wasn't beaten far after messing up the start again and maybe one to give another chance somewhere along the line. Staked 15pts Returned 0pts -15pts Todays Selections : 3.00 - Rip - Special Meaning - 7/4 - Very good reappearance at Leicester when making all and pulling clear to 4f victory. Under a penalty for that but given the nature of the victory should not prove too much of a problem. Unraced on the quicker ground but should go well. 6.25 - Yar - Estiqaama - 6/4 - Progress expected first time out from this William Haggas horse. Last seen in midfield in a heavy ground race at Newmarket, todays conditions should suit and potentially well treated on handicap debut. 6.55 - Yar - Flynn's Boy - 5/1 - Ran a brilliant race when narrowly defeated last time out at Newmarket over 6f, now back up in trip to 7f over which all three wins have come. Up 3lbs for that narrow defeat but should go well again. 7.40 - Hex - Corky Dancer - 5/2 - Won over course and distance last time out making all. Up 8lbs for that victory but Jason Maguire an interesting booking and looks like the same tactics will be employed again and can go close.
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 3rd June 4.15 - Lei - Exceedexpectations - 8/1 - Bet365 - BOG Made his reappearance at Thirsk 3 weeks ago over a 1m and finished 3rd of 15. Over 7f today, a trip which the horse has only race over on two occasions but Jamie Spencer looks an interesting booking and has won on the horse before. Exceedexpectations has finished in the first 3 on 9 of 11 starts in class 5 races.
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Evening all! Some of you may have follows my Jumps Thread which was based on Stats which was relatively successful and I will probably reprise when the Jumps gets going again. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, the same system has not translated to the flat. In the past before joining this forum, I have had some decent results with £1 win Lucky 15's, getting four winners on a fair few occasions. The selections are not system generated, purely my own opinion. I will start with a bank of 300pts and will stake 15pts per bet. All bets will be placed with Bet365. Selections for tomorrow are as follows : 4.00 - Che - Croeso Mawr - 7/2 - Completed a hat-trick at Chepstow on his last start in September all over 1m, the last of which was also on ground described as good which is likely to be the case tomorrow. Up 5lb's from that victory but it shoudln't prove too much of a problem in what looks a weak race. 4.15 - Lei - Exceedexpectations - 8/1 - Made his reappearance at Thirsk 3 weeks ago over a 1m and finished 3rd of 15. Over 7f today, a trip which the horse has only race over on two occasions but Jamie Spencer looks an interesting booking and has won on the horse before. Exceedexpectations has finished in the first 3 on 9 of 11 starts in class 5 races. 7.00 - Win - Mince - 10/11 - Tipped by people in the know to be a big player this season, looked desperately in need of the run when last seen at York. These conditions should play to Mince's strengths and looks a good thing in this contest if still retaining the ability of last term. 7.45 - Car - Diamond Blue - 6/1 - Down to a winnable mark and came 2nd a week ago over course and distance and with the same underfoot conditions by just over a length, after rearing at the start and being forced to challenge wide. Never won at this class before but in the first three on 9/12 starts over 5f and 4/5 on good to firm ground. If things fall correctly Diamond Blue should go close.
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Re: 3 Horseracing Thoughts Per Day What about the ground?
The Jockey Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: The Jockey Thread Be careful on that Jay, Hannon/Hughes record with 2yo's over last 5 years 211-781, 27% +79.34, but with 3yo's 119-741, 16%, -92.94. I know you said favourites, but I have a feeling those stats would largely be 2 year old winners. Having said that, I do think Professor has the best chance in the race today.