Binchy
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Posts posted by Binchy
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Re: The Jockey Thread
O'Brien - 22/52 (42%) Queally - 8/25 (32%) My system (see above) would say otherwise. Impressive figures from both I'm sure you would agree.The more i watch the Irish Oaks the more i ask myself WTF was Tom Queally doing / thinking about' date=' he seems to have got into a battle with the very overrated [i']''i only ride for my Daddy'' J.O'Brien. In high prize races like this and many many others i keep wondering...........How many races are won making the running ? and how many are won by the CLEVER Pro jockey that bides his time ''STALKING'' then picks off the so called Pro's when it really matters - and wins. Hats off to Johnny Murtagh, Queally and O'Brien need a reality check, never been and never will be a fan of both of them, Frankel made Queally look good, but then again, Mike Tyson could have jumped on Frankel and would have been made to look good too. Hefferman & Murtagh read the race like two Pro's and finished 1st & 2nd, when it comes to winning a race via a BATTLE - J.O'Brien will never cut the mustard, he's weak, the Fallon's & Kirby's and Moore's in a driving ''I WANT THIS RACE FINISH'' would simply p1ss all over him. -
Re: The Jockey Thread
If there is ever a Jockey on the down turn over the last few years..It has to be TED DURCAN...his stats are now struggling to hit 10%' date=' for a once very good jockey...Seen him in a couple tonight..woefull, well and truly a jockey to dodge IMO.[/quote'] See above mate, already made my feelings made on Durcan! Jim Crowley also riding poorly at the moment according to my little system (top jockeys in uk, all rides with one selection in RP). Adam Kirby riding very well at the moment, seems too be a jockey always thinking how he can get the best out of a horse : 7.45 Lin King Torus (won ridden from the front), 8.45 Lin Chrissycross (came from the back all the way around the outside for a place on a 9/1 shot). -
Re: Flat Racing July 18th 2013 I had been out all day and I watched all the races retrospectively without checking the results, to say I was gutted would be an understatement haha!
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Re: Flat Racing July 18th 2013 You couldn't make it up, tried to post a picture of my account to prove the bet so people wouldn't accuse me of making this up, but why would I? 2.20 - Bri - Tobougg Happy 4/5 won 2.40 - Lei - Excel's Beauty 4/6 won 3.00 - Ham - Statutory 1/1 won 3.10 - Lei - Telescope 1/2 won 3.40 - Lei - Ghasabah 11/4 won 7.15 - Eps - Fire Fighting 2/1 won 8.20 - Eps - Love Marmalade 1/2 placed!!!!! 201.5/1 £10 accumulator Shortest price of the lot. Gutted.
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Re: The Jockey Thread I think Doyle had a poor night all round, I think I counted two or three races in a row where you thought he would have learnt that you cannot track the leader at Windsor if they are on the rail as if you're waiting for the gap to appear you'll be waiting all day. It took him to the 1 1/2 furlong pole each time to figure this out and then wasted any momentum the horses had by furiously trying to switch over to the outside. On an other thread I posted about the stat's I am keeping at the moment regarding who I consider to be the top jocks in the country, a list which includes Doyle. This covers all horses where the horse the jockey is riding has at least 1 selection on the RP website for about the last 3-4 weeks. Doyle has the worst strike rate, 3/27 (11%), and one of those was Al Kazeem.
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Re: The Jockey Thread
One of the last off the bridle, finished 6th of 9.I'm looking forward to seeing his ride on Bassara today. Two wins on that one from 4 :ok -
Re: The Jockey Thread Twice again Durcan was outridden, both times by De Sousa at Yarmouth yesterday, arguably both times on the horse that was travelling the better. Very poor jockey.
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Re: HUGHES v MOORE Hopefully so, should provide an interesting insight. The much maligned Joseph O'Brien won 3 out of 3 qualifiers this evening, strike rate of 42%.
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Re: HUGHES v MOORE These were the stats as of yesterday : Hughes - 16/47 34% O'Brien - 8/23 35% Spencer - 7/33 21% Moore - 5/24 21% Callan - 5/27 19% De Sousa - 5/27 19% Crowley - 4/25 16% Queally - 3/7 43% Buick - 3/30 10% Doyle - 2/13 15% Hanagan - 2/14 14% Barzalona - 2/15 13% Atzeni - 0/0 Lee - 0/0 Kirby - 0/2 0% Lee, Atzeni, Kirby only just added, Hanagan, Doyle and Queally stats for about one week.
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Re: HUGHES v MOORE I'm running a bit of a system at the moment based on only backing the top jockeys (in my opinion). It's a very basic system, all rides are monitored every day but only rides where the horse has at least one selection in the RP Selections box. Mark ups are also given where the jockey is going to a course for a single ride, the jockey is riding at close to the bottom weight he is ridden at in a handicap in the last 12 months and also if the jockey is waiting for 2 hours or more between rides. I have the stats and strike rates etc at home on my laptop so I will post up later, but off the top of my head I think Hughes has ridden more than double the winners of the rest on the list, with O'Brien second and I think Spencer in third. I've been doing this for around 2/3 weeks and I think Tom Queally has the best s/r at the moment. The jockeys I am following : Hughes, Moore, De Sousa, Crowley, Callan, Queally, Hanagan, Spencer, Lee, Doyle, Barzalona, Atzeni, Buick and O'Brien.
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Re: The Jockey Thread It was just my own opinion, as there is absolutely no way you could prove it. If I owned a Group 1 horse and I had to pick a jockey to ride it I would pick Moore every time. If the horse he is riding has a chance he very rarely lets you down. Hughes is on top at the moment but I don't think he is a jockey you would want in a big race, hence why he only one his first Classic this year.
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Re: The Jockey Thread Two brilliant contrasting rides from the best jockey in the world right now, Ryan Moore. Last to first on Integral, waited and waited for the gap and then powered away, even revealing after the race the saddle slipped and he almost fell off! And then in the last on Circus Turn, rode the rest of the field to sleep from the front and kept the horse going all the way to the line. Also a mention for Andrea Atzeni who is turning into a fantastic jockey. On the other hand, I can never bring myself to back a horse with Ted Durcan on board, must be one on the weakest jockeys riding. Biographer travelled up on the outside of the field pulling a bus but he was outridden by the brilliant Buick who had been hard at work for at least a furlong longer.
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 27th June Thought I would share a few pointers that have served me well recenlty : 2.20 - Yar - Gilmer 9/2 Bet365 Mickael Barzalona has one scheduled ride at Yarmouth in the very first race for Saeed Bin Suroor. This combination with two year olds over the last fear has figures of 8-20, 40%, +£39.08. Up against an odds-on favourite but notn one to discount. He is the only unraced horse in the field and I would say worth a chance at the odds. 3.40 - War - Exactement 12/1 e/w 15 Bet365 ain Jim Crowley, currently 5th in the Jockeys Championship and showing a level stakes profit of +£42.04 so far this season, is down for one scheduled ride and it is an interesting booking by Mrs K Burke as he has won on this filly before. Again up against an odds on favourite who has been ahead of her earlier in the season, but decent form in the Nell Gwyn and Irish 100 Guineas and could be in the places here. 5.30 - New - Storma Norma 16/1 e/w 1/5 Bet365 Silvestre De Sousa is riding well at the moment, ending over a week without a winner with a four-timer at Pontefract and a hat-trick last night at Bath. Currently sitting behind the big two in the Jockeys Championship in third and also showing a level stakes profit of £42.96 this season. He is hanging around here today, with 3 rides, but a 2 hour gap between his second and his last ride in the last race of the day. Whilst the horse's form is uninspiring, De Sousa did a similar thing last night when hanging a round for two hours for the last race on a similarly uninspiring 14/1 shot, who went off at 9/2 and finished 3l's 2 but clear of the rest. There may be something in it again and worth an each-way shot.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread If you register with Bet365 they have a pretty good racing archive, each race is put into the archive half an hour after the start time.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread And his ride on World Map (14/1) was excellent too, had both of them (Asatir 20/1) in a Lucky 31 with a couple of others, one placed at 14/1 and the other won at 8's, my biggest win to date. Incredible.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread That was a sickener for anybody who backed it, got going a couple of strides to late! Interesting to note after 20+ rides at Ascot without a sniff of a winner, De Sousa rode a four timer at Pontefract on Sunday and went to Salisbury today for 1 ride which made all at 20/1.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Interested to see how Front Page News goes in the 4.55 at Salisbury. Opened up at 20/1 last night early prices and by about 11ish the horse had been smashed into 6/1. Just had a quick look again and now 7/2 Favourite( May have been joint). Finished reasonably well LTO to take 5th but it looks like some inside information has prompted a massive gamble.
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 2.20 - Mar - Royal Opera 2pts 5/2 (Betfair) - Brian Ellison @ Market Rasen over hurdles (11-60, 18%, +38.06) Placed -2 Bets - 15 Winners - 3 Staked - 24pts Returned - 23.64pts Profit/Loss - -0.36pts Strike Rate - 20% Todays Selections 1.50 - Wor - Reg's Ruby 1pt 7/1 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-119, 22%, +35.56) Grovemere 1pt 5/1 - Tom O'Brien in handicap chases (89-506, 18%, +85.92) 2.00 - Hex - Rathnaroughly 1pt 20/1 - Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes in chases (14-83, 17%, +69.33) 2.20 - Wor - Roger Beantown 2pts 11/4 - Daryl Jacob in novice chases (66-208, 32%, +59.18) 2.50 - Wor - Escardo 2pts 7/2 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-119, 22%, +35.56) 3.00 - Hex - Things Change 3pts 10/11 - John Quinn/Dougie Costello over hurdles (44-187, 24%, +53.54) 3.30 - Hex - Stanley Bridge 1pt 12/1 - Barry Murtagh/Lucy Alexander over hurdles (11-64, 17%, +75.08) 4.30 - Hex - Pete 1pt 13/2 - Barry Murtagh/Lucy Alexander over hurdles (11-64, 17%, +75.08) 5.20 - Wor - Man Of Leisure 2pts 9/2 - Rachel Green in handcap hurdles (14-54, 26%, +93.53)
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 6.00 - Ffo - Forresters Folly 2pts 4/1 (Betfair) - Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson over hurdles (78-359, 20%, +97.87), Wayne Hutchinson in novice hurdles (54-339, 16%, +93.92) NR 6.30 - Ffo - Sandynow 3pts 5/1 - Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien in chases (34-160, 21%, +48.03), Tom O'Brien in handicap chases (89-505, 18%, +86.92) Lost -3 7.05 - Ffo - Prospect Wells 4pts 10/11 (Betfair) - Daryl Jacob in novice chases (65-207, 31%, +58.27) Won +0.64 8.45 - Ffo - Man Of Leisure 2pts 11/4 - Rachael Green in handicap hurdles (14-54, 26%, +93.53) NR +0.64 9.20 - Ffo - No To Trident 1pt 6/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-119, 16%, +35.50) Placed -0.36 Bets - 14 Winners - 3 Staked - 22pts Returned - 23.64pts Profit/Loss - +1.64pts Strike Rate - 21% Tomorrows Selection 2.20 - Mar - Royal Opera 2pts 5/2 (Betfair) - Brian Ellison @ Market Rasen over hurdles (11-60, 18%, +38.06)
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 4.00 - Utt - Turtlethomas 1pt 25/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-118, 16%, +36.50) Lost -1 4.35 - Utt - Jaja De Jau 1pt 10/1 - Rachel Green in handicap hurdles (14-53, 26%, +94.53) Placed -2 5.10 - Utt - Palace Jester 1pt 8/1 - David Pipe @ Uttoxeter in chases (10-33, 30%, +48.12) Lost -3 Bets - 11 Winners - 2 Staked - 14pts Returned - 16pts Profit/Loss - +2pts Strike Rate - 18% Tomorrow Selections 6.00 - Ffo - Forresters Folly 2pts 4/1 (Betfair) - Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson over hurdles (78-359, 20%, +97.87), Wayne Hutchinson in novice hurdles (54-339, 16%, +93.92) 6.30 - Ffo - Sandynow 3pts 5/1 - Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien in chases (34-160, 21%, +48.03), Tom O'Brien in handicap chases (89-505, 18%, +86.92) 7.05 - Ffo - Prospect Wells 4pts 10/11 (Betfair) - Daryl Jacob in novice chases (65-207, 31%, +58.27) 8.45 - Ffo - Man Of Leisure 2pts 11/4 - Rachael Green in handicap hurdles (14-54, 26%, +93.53) 9.20 - Ffo - No To Trident 1pt 6/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-119, 16%, +35.50)
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 2.10 - Str - Polly Hopper 1pt 9/4 (Betfair) - Nigel Twiston-Davies @ Stratford over hurdles (9-49, 18%, +51.32) Placed -1 2.45 - Str - Castlemorris King 2pts 6/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-117, 16%, +37.50) Placed -3 3.20 - Str - Double Chocolate 1pt 9/1 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-118, 22%, +36.56) Lost -4 Magical Legend 1pt 12/1 - Tom O'Brien in handicap chases (89-504, 18%, +87.92) Lost -5 3.55 - Str - Danehill Dante 2pts 5/1 (Betfair) - Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson over hurdles (78-385, 20%, +98.87), Wayne Hutchinson in novice hurdles (54-338, 16%, +94.92) Lost -7 Uhlan Bute 1pt 6/1 (Betfair) - Aidan Coleman @ Stratford over hurdles (10-41, 24%, +43.74) N/R -7 Bets - 8 Winners - 2 Staked - 11pts Returned - 16pts Profit/Loss - +5pts Strike Rate - 25% Tomorrow Selections 4.00 - Utt - Turtlethomas 1pt 25/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-118, 16%, +36.50) 4.35 - Utt - Jaja De Jau 1pt 10/1 - Rachel Green in handicap hurdles (14-53, 26%, +94.53) 5.10 - Utt - Palace Jester 1pt 8/1 - David Pipe @ Uttoxeter in chases (10-33, 30%, +48.12)
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Got to agree with Rupert, don't think the bump can be used as an excuse as both horses were stopped in their tracks. Toronado had every bit as much a chance as Dawn Approach but was beaten by the better horse on the day.
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Race 1 - Animal Kingdom the class act in the field for me, only two have won G1 races, the other being Elusive Kate but happy to take her on seasonal reappearance and the price on offer is a gift, got evens last night with Bet365. Also taken Gregorian (16/1) and Trumpet Major (25/1) as each-way bets, with the three in a reverse trifecta. Race 2 - Was watching the ATR preview last night and they were banging on about the betting stats saying something along the lines of 2 favourites winning in the last 17 but overseas horses having won 7 out of the last 10. I do not take any notice of betting stats, as for me, the betting is obviously influenced by punters backing a horse, therefore the favourite at the time of making your selection will not necessarily be the favourite at the time of the off. Shea Shea is the pick for me, blistering turn of foot shown last time out. Slightly concerned that the horse would appear to be on the wrong side of the course but broke the track record is South Africa stopping the clokc in 56s (the previous track record was also his). 9/4 taken with Bet365. Had a trifecta with Shea Shea, Swiss Spirit and Reckless Abandon and out of loyalty small each-way plays on Pearl Secret (12/1) and Ballesteros (100/1). Race 3 - Aside from the obvious concerns, if Dawn Approach is anywhere near 100% and there are no psychological effects he is still the one to beat. Countless pundits were tipping the horse as the best 3yo miler in the world at the moment before the Derby and that obviously still stands, took 11/8 last night. Trifecta with Dawn Approach, Magician and Toronado. Race 4 - If Riverboat Springs breaks well I can see the horse going close and the price on offer seems value to me 10/1 e/w. I saw a stat last night that 2yo's who have ran 3 or more times have a torrid record at Royal Ascot so I am keen to take on Stubbs. I think the selection can be classed as possibly the biggest eyecatcher of the season so far and should go close. Race 5 - Horses who have ren creditably in the Chester Cup tend to go well in this races, therefore I am siding with Justification (around 7/1 e/w). On what could be a very good day for Mr O'Brien, this lightly-race horse, who is not being talked about as much of the likes of Stubbs, Magician, Mars etc. has as good a chance as any. Race 6 - John Gosden is a trainer who likes to target Royal Ascot and Ben Hall (around 16/1) looks a value e/w bet. Buick has talked the horse up in his ATR column as being a real speed horse and this is exactly the sort of race on which the animal could thrive if breaking well and settling into the race. Pretty much a do or die king of day as I have doubled and trebled up on Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach. If all 3 win that pretty much covers the whole festival for me althought I would be just as pleased with 2/3. Anything less would be disappointing.
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Re: Binchy's Stats Adventure 2.10 - Str - Polly Hopper 1pt 9/4 (betfair) - Nigel Twiston-Davies @ Stratford over hurdles (9-49, 18%, +51.32) 2.45 - Str - Castlemorris King 2pts 6/1 - Gavin Sheehan in handicap hurdles (19-117, 16%, +37.50) 3.20 - Str - Double Chocolate 1pt 9/1 - David Bridgwater in handicap chases (26-118, 22%, +36.56) Magical Legend 1pt 12/1 - Tom O'Brien in handicap chases (89-504, 18%, +87.92) 3.55 - Str - Danehill Dante 2pts 5/1 (betfair) - Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson over hurdles (78-385, 20%, +98.87), Wayne Hutchinson in novice hurdles (54-338, 16%, +94.92) Uhlan Bute 1pt 6/1 (betfair) - Aidan Coleman @ Stratford over hurdles (10-41, 24%, +43.74)
The Jockey Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: The Jockey Thread SDS definitely the best jockey this year if a horse needs scrubbing along from an early stage. Did it twice this evening at Doncaster, brilliant rides.