Binchy
-
Posts
764 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Binchy
-
-
Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Forgot to mention that bets are placed with Bet365 and are Best Odds Guaranteed. Todays Selections : 5.00 - Wol - Coiltte Cailin 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) 5.30 - Wol - Clockmaker 1pt 11/2 - George Baker @ Wolverhampton on 4yo+ (48-230, 21%, +£100.59) 6.00 - Wol - Disco Dave 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03)
-
Those who saw my thread last year will know how this works, but just a quick reminder for those who didn't : I have developed this system based on Trainer and Jockey profit/loss (P/L) to level stakes and strike rate over the last 5 years taken from the Racing Post Website. Trainers stats are broken down into three areas (Course, Type of Race and Jockey). This is then broken down further to show the strike rate and P/L in each area (Hurdles, Chase, Bumpers) or for the flat (2yo, 3yo, 4yo+). Jockey stats are shown in the same way, obviously including records for specific trainers. Areas I am interested in are those that have a 40% strike rate, or at least 33% strike rate and over +£25 P/L, 25% strike rate and over +£50 P/L or, 20% strike rate and over +£100 P/L I keep a word document which shows all the areas on interest which is updated weekly. As it would be pretty unrealistic to keep track of all trainers and jockeys, I would estimate I have taken into account the trainers/jockeys with at least 20 winners based on this and last years stats. I then go through all race cards daily and see if there are any matches. If yes, these will be our selections for the day. I have tried to look at the selections more in depth using my own opinions, but this often results in discarding 66/1 shots that win or backing even money favourites heavily that lose. Once these have been listed, I then work out how many points to stake on each selection. I will post the stats that back up the selection. Hoping to keep this going through the year as I got a little downbeat last year when the results started taking a turn for the worse after starting pretty well.
-
Re: PDC World Championship - 13 Dec - 1 Jan I must say i'm really enjoying Faders tips so far. Make your own mins up whether that it is because of the content or his avatar. Or a combination of the two :D
-
Re: Jumps Racing Tuesday 26th November 12.30 - Lin - Truckers Darling 1pt 9.4 Betfair Leighton Aspell/Don Cantillon over hurdles are 5-16 (31%) which is a very healthy strike rate. Won an Irish race last season and then was thrown into a race with the big Mullins hurdle hope for the season Annie Power in which the horse finished a tailed off last. Can't help but feel the horse might have showed a small ounce of profit to be in such company and has since changed yards and prepared to take a chance in a weak race. 1.20 - Sed - Rattlin - 2pts 2/1 Bet365 Yard in decent from and Ryan Mania has a healthy profit in Handicap Chases (50-382, 13%, +£117.83) and when teaming up with Sue Smith over fences (26-158, 16%, +£95.71), Won a couple of hurdle races and handles any ground, should go well on chase debut in another weak race. 1.30 - Lin - Morestead - 1pt 7/2 Bet365 Runner up last time out to Waltzing Tornado who won on again on Sunday and Mccoy/Powell combination in chases (8-26, 31%). McCoy of course in as good a form as ever and seems to be winning races he has no right to win at the moment. Only two rides on the entire card and the favourite opposable in this race returning from a break.
-
Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 26th November 2.40 - Sou - Top Diktat 1pt 6/1 Bet365 Trainer Gary Moore has an impressive strike rate with 4yo+ at Southwell (8-20, 40%) and the horse ran well last time out at Redcar. Never raced at Southwell before and is totally unexposed at this trip, should run well. 5.50 - Wol - Jaladee 1pt 4.5 on Betfair Andrea Atzeni has a decent enough record at Wolverhampton on 3yo's (20-128, 16%, +£55.91), as does Roger Varian (9-28, 32%). There is a not a lot to recommend in relation to the horse but that is what the horse is an interesting runner.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Yeah i solely use the RP aswell, I am a member so it makes sense for me and it suits my needs, I don't do my own ratings or anything like that but I do like to look at Stats. I would usually do it all the night before but didn't get in until quite late on Friday morning. Not to worry.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I did a quick shortlist of horses last night to look into further this morning but couldn't get on the RP site so decided to leave it for today, wouldn't have backed all of them but so far 8 winners from the shortlist.......just my luck that.
-
Re: The Jockey Thread Another one with impressive stats over the jumps is Daryl Jacob in Novice Chases (Last 5 years) 72-226, 32%, +£93.41
-
Re: David Pipe a trainer to stay away from ??? Areas to focus on for David Pipe (over last 5 years) Chepstow (hurdles) 16-51, 31%, +£39.75 Fontwell (Chase) 5-11, 45%, +£9.13 Taunton (Chase) 5-16, 31%, +£4.80 Towcester (Chase) 5-13, 38%, +£8.12 Pipe/McCoy (Chase) 6-20, 36%, +£7.86 Pipe/Murphy (Bumper) 5-8, 63% +£7.17 (Rides favourite in last race at Cheltenham today, Red Sherlock, 5/2)
-
Re: PL 10 To Follow - National Hunt 2014 (Starts Fri 15th Nov) 1. At Fishers Cross 2. Captain Chris 3. Cue Card 4. Grandouet 5. Jezki 6. Silviniaco Conti 7. Sir Des Champs 8. Solwhit * 9. First Lieutenant 10. Sprinter Sacre
-
Re: The Jockey Thread
Got to say that Liam Treadwell/Venetia Williams are a lethal combination in Chases and a must follow. Over the last five season their record is 21-56' date=' 38% strike rate, profit of +120.62 to level stakes. Awesome.[/quote'] Quick heads up that Renard runs in the 1.35 at Cheltenham tomorrow for the above combo. -
Re: The Jockey Thread Got to say that Liam Treadwell/Venetia Williams are a lethal combination in Chases and a must follow. Over the last five season their record is 21-56, 38% strike rate, profit of +120.62 to level stakes. Awesome.
-
Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I know mate mostly I just take what he says with a pinch of salt and it is all about opinions but I couldn't let him get away with that one. Good of him to reply though I suppose.
-
Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I had an interesting exchange with ATR's Matt Chapman on twitter today. He was slagging off Ryan Moore for "letting" Treve, Orfevre and Kizuna pass Ruler of The World on the turn. I challenged him and asked him if he thought it would have made any difference whatsoever given than the horse finished 4 and a bit lengths down on Kizuna, 6 and a bit behind Orfevre and over ten behind Treve? He responded by saying probably not, but Moore was 'cruising' on ROTW at the time. Now my definition of cruising speed would be the speed at which the aforementioned three went past Moore's horse. I think ROTW only managed to finish that close as he was running through beaten horses. How did that idiot get on the tv?
-
Re: The Jockey Thread Think Jamie Spencer deserves a bit of credit today for his ride on Rocky Ground in the 3:40 at Beverley. He gets a lot of stick for this type of ride, but when it all falls right and it is timed to perfection, threading the eye of the needle, it is extremely impressive.
-
Re: Cheltenham 2014.... 176 days.............
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Don't get me wrong, I think he is a top class jockey, no doubt about that. Purely an observation.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
He does it quite alot i've noticed. More interested in the quantity of winners rather than the quality which is why he will be top jockey. He knows the other top jocks will be at the big meeting so he goes to the smaller ones and has the pick of the rides. It's no coincidence that he only broke his Classic duck this year.Why the hell is Hughesy at Lingfield? Probably the worst card of the day. -
Re: Key Race: Doncaster St Leger (Sat 14th Sept) The two I would want on my side are Talent and Cap O' Rushes. I forget who but I seem to remember someone this weke or last from Godolphin saying Cap O was there best chance of a winner.
-
Re: Are some trainers blatantly in the pockets of trainers? Thanks for explaining, from the way you said I thought you had some sort of inside info but I understand what you meant now.
-
Re: BBOTD Thurs 5th sept Kempton 7.40 - Flemish School 9/2 (Bet365) 1pt win Looks an interesting prospect on her first time handicapping after an okayish run last time out after a long lay off. Unexposed compared to the rest of the field. Neil Callan takes the ride, the lowest weight he has ridden of in the last twelve months is 8-7 and comes to Kempton for what looks like being his only ride on the card to ride 8-8.
-
Re: Are some trainers blatantly in the pockets of trainers? Aidy, feel free to tell me to mind my own, but how did you know for a fact that the trainer knew the horse wouldn't win?
-
Re: The Jockey Thread Another handicap mark protected in the 9.00 at Kempton earlier, Tom Queally definitely stopped his mount Tagalaka from achieving the best possible placing, coming down the outside like a train, quick glance across, hands dropped.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread BET365 have allowed me to void my bets before due to non-runners and clicking the wrong buttons etc. if you don't ask you don't get.
Binchys Stats Train 2014
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Binchys Stats Train 2014 Thanks for your kind comments Karijini, I shall do my best! Not a bad start. Results : 5.00 - Wol - Coiltte Cailin 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) Placed -1 5.30 - Wol - Clockmaker 1pt 11/2 - George Baker @ Wolverhampton on 4yo+ (48-230, 21%, +£100.59) Lost -2 6.00 - Wol - Disco Dave 1pt 6/1 - Shane Kelly/Daniel Loughnane on 4yo+ (20-77, 26%, +£57.03) Won +4 Running Stats Bets - 3 Won - 1 Staked - 3pts Returned - 7pts Profit/Loss - +4pts Strike Rate - 33%