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west64

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Posts posted by west64

    Bundesliga > February 14th - 16th

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Bundesliga > February 14th - 16th Well if you look that Schalke will be playing rag-tag team, the odds are quite spot on... How can Schalke all the sudden become an odds on team vs Bayer away? They are missing the players which are the carriers of their game, not to mention they were overachieving, as their game is far from being the tika-taka people are trying to make us believe. Hannover and Hamburg (the latter even with their new coach and better form as of late) are in no way any kind of merrit regarding todays match. Wolfsburg was a lucky win to say the least. So it might be misleading for others who are not following the league closely, and make them think that Schalke is playing vs Braunschweig. I will stay away from this match, might go for BTTS/over 2,5 if odds will be acceptable.

    Ligue 1 Orange > February 11th - 16th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > February 11th - 16th good analysis, but couldnt agree less with the actual picks. Valeinciennes is a dreadful away side against any sort of organised midfield. I cant think of any particualar reason why PSG should continue with poor performances when they outplay pretty much any team by a huge margin. Valenciennes shouldnt be the tough nut of the bunch, as they leak in goals. PSG do have quite an important match ahead mid-week, but its a play-off tie, which is still quite far away and I am very sure they will want to win hard before their CL tie. Valencienes seems just like the right customer to buy the fiver. My bet for this match is: PSG -2 @ 2.3 (bet365) 4/10 first half goals - over 1,5 @ 2.2 (bet365) 4/10 might go for some goalscorer in the ranks of Valencienes, especialy a set piece "expert" to counter a bit, but all in all I see absolutely no way that Valenciennes could get anything other than a proper beating at Parc des Princes...

    Ligue 1 Orange > February 11th - 16th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > February 11th - 16th You and nobody else for that matter... I think Toulouse was amongst the most backed teams, besides Fiora last night in my home town. Everybody was loading the slips with Toulouse and also -1... So this is why I in particulary absolutely hate french club football on the 3-way markets or handicaps. Massive massive underperfomers only rivaled by the turkish and russian football clubs. I can name at least 10 heavy favourites who got creamed by a totaly "laughable" opposition. And thats one of the aspects of french club football, a few consistent players and some cashed out stars... otherwise packed with seriously challenged football players, who end up sabotaging their team when it matters the most. So I will again point out that for me and my betting Ligue 1 and 2 are only observed through goal markets with really nice value. With such absurd results as french football has been producing in last few seasons its the only way for me to avoid losses and maybe count in a few dimes..

    Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14

    in Dutch Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 Well when cruising the goal markets in dutch league, one can hardly expect any decent value. But the factor which comes to my mind is probability, and with the type of football which is encouraged by the clubs in the Netherlands, the most probable outcome 8/10 times is overs. Might not get through every time, but its by far the most probable outcome, as the outright winners, eventhough plentiful in value, can hardly count as probable results, due to the unpredictable nature of the league. I will be more than happy to use this in my accumulator. I always tend to put together 2 or 3 games of dutch first and second division football. The odds can easily arise to 3/1 with a decent accumulator.

    Serie A > January 25th & 26th

    in Italian Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Serie A > January 25th & 26th

    Cagliari - AC Milan pick: Milan -0.25 odds: 1.77 bookie: Pinnacle stake: 8/10 Milan makes poor season, but i think now its' time for some up-trend in their favor. New coach effect, new good transfer (Esien) and 4 players back to play in this visit - Montolivo, Muntari, Pazzini and Abate. Still Milan have few missings, but i think they are better team with bigger motivation to win such game. They comes after difficult win against Verona and i cant imagine they will repeat similar mistake like game with Sassuolo (lead with 2 goals -> FT = lose). Hosts with troubles in scorring and add to this they have missings in their offense, so i cant see how they will manage to win such game.
    I believe Essien was declined by AC Milan and will be returned.. Still no confirmation regarding this, but most likely he will not wear the rosso-nero gear.

    Ligue 2 > January 24th - 27th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 2 > January 24th - 27th Well, I believe we should add a new thread for discussion of who was right when, and who´s john is longer. Mainly because I am having trouble screening french threads as of late.. I will follow up on Tours game, really liked what senk wrote up, but I will most likely go on overs here. Every saturday first L2 match usualy goes overs or home win, so I will just go with you two guys (meatie and senki), and not sweat it too much :)

    TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th

    in Italian Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: TIM Cup > January 21st - 29th I will look at this fixture purely on goal markets. The reason is simple, both teams are playing some decent atacking football, both teams are comfortable with the ball, so given the fluency which we witnessed in the past weeks I expect nothing less then btts or over 2.5. The odds are not great thats for sure, but in terms of probability I believe this outcome has far more chance than any 3-way pick. bet365 offering 1.65 for btts - 6/10 1.85 for over 2.5 - 5/10 Both teams have failed to score only once in the past 10+ games (Home-Roma/away-Juve) respectively, ofcourse cup tie is a different thing, but in this case I am sure it will not be have such a detrimental effect. The form is there, the motivation should not be an issue should a mixed line-up start the game.

    Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th It doesnt suck, coz in a way there was value on Reims... The game ended up costing me a full 13 units, but nothing to do here, Lyon were very good, quite tight as expected, Reims should have scored surely, but in the end Lyon showed up today and thats that... Im actualy so pissed, that I might end up backing Toulouse or something :)

    Chelsea v Manchester United > Sunday January 19th

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Chelsea v Manchester United > Sunday January 19th I have to agree with thecurlyone1 regarding btts. Such "must win" derby situation usualy flush out an accidental hero on the underdogs side, so I wouldnt be too surprised if United got a goal in, might be an early goal as well. But considering tha vast amount of € being poured onto Chelsea in this match, I will most likely punt on a draw and btts. Really nice value in draw @ 3.75 (bet365). Ofcourse the draw seems like a madmans bet, but I am willing to take the risk for 4 units. As neilovan mentioned, the pressure is squarely on Chelsea, and I havent been too impressed with them lately.

    Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Agree with Neil, no need to work yourself up about it, as long as you didnt produce a hefty loss :) Otherwise French football is amongst the most unpredictable in my opinion (others being Russian and Turkish leagues). But thats why it usualy provides with good value either way :) I am sorry you will not be posting full previews for all matches, because I always found them helpful, regardless of the outcome (I usualy pick different bets, asians are not my game, but its based on your write ups), but I can imagine it takes quite much of your time, so I fully understand your position. Last night, really good call by senk for Lorient game, somehow evaded the rennes match so it didnt bother me later on. But I would like to add also, that this league, even if it produces loads of unders, it also provides good value when betting on overs, espcialy league 2 can have massive odds on over 1,5. For today, I really fancy a draw in Reims. The hosts are one of my favorite teams in france, producing amazing football at home against top tier teams. Lyon is showing some life in the last few weeks, upping their game and chasing the european spots on the table, although im quite sure they will have to focus on the cup to get there. But Reims seems really solid and when I take into account the cup match, Lyon seemed to dominate, but still Reims managed to score a goal and aquire a late penalty, which didnt help their cause. From what Ive seen from Reims this season (and last year they managed to surprise a few), they should have what it takes to hold Lyon at a draw today, but what scares me is their win over LOSC which might boost their confidence. Still not sure, have to check other factors, but I do see value in: FT - DRAW @ 3.0 (bet365 ) HT/FT - DRAW/DRAW @ 4.75 (bet365) BTTS @ 1.80 (bet365) Really will enjoy watching this match so I am very tempted in loading it a bit :) Might give it a shot with Floyd Ayite being anytime scorer @ 5.0 for a few units. He does have his long distance shot, which might prove useful in this match if Lyon decide to tighten up at the back. Last game (even if it was a cup game) provided a safer approach in the first half, so this time it could be similar.. Can you guys give me your views regarding my picks? Would be easier to decide...

    Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th After a short re-cap of the match im baffled as to how Lille failed to score at least a goal... That would round up my evening really nice, but then again im happy I took brandao which decreased my loss at this game to a bearable 5 units, and agree with meatie, wish I had put him 1st for a unit or two.. Basa missing, alongside Beria is what worked me up for the hosts scoring, but I never expected the team which fought so ferociously against PSG away would fail so harshly here... Anyways a GG in my opinion and I would probably place the same bets again in same circumstances :)

    Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th From what ive heard Basa will most likely miss this match for LOSC, which worries me when it comes to backing lille. Rock solid defence with 2 quite prolific missings does seem like a BTTS scenario, since Saints arent the most hospitable hosts in L1. But on the other hand I am worried about the game prep, and fatigue which is more than likely hampering the home side... Really tricky one to call, but I am sooo tempted... EDIT: went for it, loaded the game :D all bets on bet365: BTTS @ 2.1 for 7/10 DNB Lille @ 2.2 for 5/10 and a little for the extra rush Brandao anytime scorer @ 3.4 3/10

    Ligue 1 Orange > December 20th - 22nd

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ligue 1 Orange > December 20th - 22nd Is it just me or does the OM game appeal with BTTS? Bordeaux even as inconsistent as they were, they tend to find the net every game, excluding the Europa L campaign, they have a tendency to score. With OM being in its current situation I cant see them keeping a clean sheet, but also expect them to net 1 in, simply because its home game vs Girodines.. Any thoughts?

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