[Third Qualifying Round - First Legs]

Rapid Vienna - Ajax Amsterdam Rapid has a couple of decent performances in the past few matches, most notably they have beaten FSV Frankfurt in a friendly, and they do seem to be a compact crew. They have some minor changes to the squad from last year, but the main options (judging from the past 4 games) still rely on Kainz as an experienced midfielder and slovenian international Beric up front. Overall they usually fail to impress at this stage, and in my opinion their latest results might be misleading with odds following suit. On the other hand Ajax do seem to be a bit shaky, taking into account their preparations and friendlies vs. the likes of Wolfsburg (drew 1-1), St. Etienne (lost 1-0) and nordsjeland (lost 1-3). Having seen some of the match vs St. Etienne I can state that these results are probably not something to build our forecast on, rather it was obvious that Ajax can play on a higher level, since all of the teams they met are most likely a class or two above Rapid. The midfield will again be commanded by Klassen probably assisted by the experienced serbian international Gudelj. Up front most likely Milik, who had a decent season and also managed to score a goal against Panathinaikos, but there are options De Boer can choose from. The season has yet to start in Holland, which can be a bit tricky, but at the odds offered @ 3.0 (williams) for Ajax win, I will surely stake 3/10 units, and formulate additional bets in-play. GL

[Third Qualifying Round - First Legs]

Steaua Bucharest - Partizan Belgrade wow, I cant believe the odds I am seeing here. Partizan as high as 3.5 @ bet365. If we take into account the results these teams produced during the past few european campaigns, the odds do seem "fair". But in light of recent results I cant see how Steaua can be considered a favorite in any way. Last few matches have shown that Steaua has certain issues on the field, I believe the source of the problem is mainly organisational in nature, certain money currents are moving away from the club, consequently we have seen a couple of departures - mainly the most prominent players have found different employers. Their duel vs. Slovakian Trenchin showed us that Steaua is indeed quite a limited team defensively. The first match (away @ Trenchin) produced a score which couldnt have been more misleading, 0-2 for Steaua. The quick goals came from a couple of counterattacks, but Trenchin were dictating the tempo throughout the game. Second leg, same issues for Steaua. Slow defenders, full backs are doing everything except running their side. The midfield lacks creativity and speed. The result? 3 goals in the net of Steaua and could have been much more. The last league match was a day-off for the team, with mainly fringe players securing a draw for a mediocre start of the season. On the other side we have Partizan Belgrade, who have been impressive in their start of the season, securing b2b victories with zero goals conceded. The team this year seems much better than the previous season. The new signings include Slovenian internation Balazic (CB) and Bulgarian international Bojinov, who is class on its own, but has been quite unlucky with injuries in the past. So far he seems to be the dominant striker Partizan was looking for, while Balazic seems to be quite confident in the back. The true power of this team is the wingers and full backs, the speed, creativity and confidence are well shown. Vulicevic (a modern wing-back causes too much trouble and with the limited defense Steaua is coming forth I can see many chances for Partizan) Youngsters (mainly Šaponjic and Živkovic) have proven their worth in the atack. The new coach seems to play offensive football, which resulted in 13 goals so far (zero conceded) in 4 matches (including 2 legs with Dila Gori). Of course all of these games were against weak opposition, but the quality of football is there. The players seem confident and as they claim they believe in victory tommorow. Tommorows match smells like an away victory to me and at these odds its hard to resist. Since this is the first leg I will not go in heavily on the match, but I will punt 3 units on Partizan @ 3.50 and another unit on a handicap win @ 7.50. For those less confident a couple of bets include: Steaua clean sheet - NO @ 1.53 Partizan DNB 2.37 Other bets I will formulate in-play since there can be juicy odds for certain markets. GL! quick edit: Steaua hosts Partizan in front of empty stands at the National Arena in Bucharest, part of their sentence for racist raging of the fans. Another factor which adds to my confidence that Partizan will come out with a result here.

[Europa League Qualifiers - Second Legs - July 7th and 9th]

Potential value to be had at following games: UCD to win @ 11.00/ double chance @3.40 (bet365) I am clueless as to why UCD are such underdogs versus dudelange, its not like dudelange have an accomplished side or anything worth mentioning. Alashkert to win @ 7.00 / DC @ 2.5 (bet365) Alashkert were the better team to begin with, not to mention zero preparations on behalf of St. Johnstone. The odds dont add up. JK Nome Kalev to win @ 5.40 at home versus the same side the beat away, Aktobe had quite a trip, the host might be looking for a tight game with a counter, such games can end up with 1:0- worth a try

[Coupe de France > April 7th & 8th]

Re: Coupe de France > April 7th & 8th Rumour has it that PSG will field a totaly combined lineup due to injuries, resting certain players etc. Anybody has any additional info? The odds on double chance are tempting at around 2.7

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th

Ajax - Dnipro davysheehy1, I totally agree with you. Also, I would like to add that Dnipro coach (Myron Markevych) has health problems and will stay in Dnipropetrovsk. Seleznyov (one of the main squad attackers) is doubtfull too. Plus 3 suspended players (one of them is the capitan). First game ended 1-0 Dnipro win and the main reason for Ajax loss was bad condition of play-field in Kiev. I think that in Amsterdam will be another game and home team will have more chances to show attacking game. Ajax played in CL group stage and lost only 1 game at home (0-2 Barca), while Dnipro has no CL exp., Dnipro has never reached the quarter-finals of the Europa League. Usually I dont play at EL games, but in this case my choice is home win 2,00 Coral.

The main reason for Ajax defeat, I would state, is that they were utterly rubish, couldnt complete 2 passes and could have lost 5:0...

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 12th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 12th

Wolfsburg seem very overrated against Inter. Mancini's Inter showed that they can rise to the challenge in tough matches' date=' drawing away to Juve and Napoli. People probably look at the match as "second in Bundesliga against ninth in Italy, it should be home win", hence the ridiculous odds for Wolfsburg. And Bas Dost is surely not a world class striker.[/quote'] I somewhat agree with this, but on the other hand, inter are plain rubbish atm. They might offer some fight, but looking at their record this season all I can see is one struggle after another. Wolfsburg is much too short, that is what I agree about, but I cant see nth in this generaly under-experienced side, which barely takes a point from mediocre opposition in italy. I do see goals in this match, but I also cant imagine Inter having something to cheer about later tonight. Wolfsburg & over 2.5 @ 2.37 (bet365) is good enough for me to stake 5/10.

[Russia > Sogaz Russian Championship > 2014/15]

Re: Russia > Sogaz Russian Championship > 2014/15 Any kind of reasoning would be heavily appreciated, especially because Im interested in placing some bets on Sogaz games, although I am very careful around Turkish and Russian footy.. That is why I would like to read some insights by locals ;) Cheers!

[Juventus v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 24th]

Re: Juventus v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 24th I do understand what you mean, but I was not implying that, but that obvious red card foul by Pogba didnt get a yellow.. Thats why I said in many occasions not all the time.

[Juventus v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 24th]

Re: Juventus v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 24th

Juve were clearly the better side. They easily nullified Dortmund's attacks all night. Unless there is another disastrous slip by a Juve's player' date=' I can't see Dortmund scoring in the return leg. Numerous chances created but Juve wasted most of them as usual. Juve will go through but they probably are not ready to compete with the likes of Bayern, Real or Barca yet.[/quote'] LOL, with all due respect, if Piscek hadnt gone off, I couldnt see Juve getting anything at all. Out of form BVB had them by the balls in the first half, the freak goal by never-to-score Morata saved their face, otherwise ... Juve was decent defensivly, the ref was in many occasions clearly on their side. Reading your post I cant shrug off the feeling you watched a different match.

[Bundesliga > February 6th - 8th]

Re: Bundesliga > February 6th - 8th I believe that the absolutely ridiculous odds on Dortmund are based purely on speculation that the majority of bets placed will favour Dortmund to win. Hence the shit odds, but I totaly agree, they are falling apart atm, and ofcourse freiburg with its crappy defence are probably why people expect Dortmund to stop the bad streak here. Dortmund is very inconsistent, crap form, cant seem to score from 5 yards.. On the other hand Freiburg have that really crap defence, which can contribute to Dortmund finally getting some goals. At these odds, the match is purely no bet for me, perhaps a unit or so just to keep me interested..

[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 30th - February 2nd]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 30th - February 2nd Malaga vs Valencia this is the type of "public" bet that I loathe... Everybody is clamping on Valencia (at least the people I know) and given my past experience with such "great" odds I will surely go for: BTTS @ 1.83 (bet365) 7/10 DRAW @ 3.3 (bet365) 4/10 The reason is that Valencia has a great season so far havin won 4/5 last matches, the motivation runs high, they tend to outscore the opposition, which adds to my confidence that there will be goals in the match, and other factor is the awful results of Malaga in the last 5 matches. The team is hardly as bad as the results suggest, and I believe they will go into the match with 3 points in mind, despite their rival being Valencia. Malaga has had some trouble scoring in the past matches, and I would expect that to change this time. GL!

[African Cup of Nations 2015 Thread]

Re: African Cup of Nations 2015 Thread Enjoying the goal markets in this Nations cup, hardly predictable, but favourable results. I agree with MPLouis regarding this evenings matchup, with such odds, one can hardly resist. Great for accumulators too, getting tonights fixtures over 1,5 at 1.60 (Guinea) and 1.55 (Cameroon) local bookie, combined thats 2.48 for a good 7 unit stake.

[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 3rd - 5th]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 3rd - 5th 1/3 won, 3.4 units of profit. too bad for that second goal by Valencia tho :D Still sailing fair with sociedad. Hopefuly the result doesnt change much.

[Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 3rd - 5th]

Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > January 3rd - 5th I would tend to disagree with HT/FT and 5 or more goals as well. Ofcourse everything implies that there should be a goal fest with Real coming on top. But, in my opinion this match will not reflect the past matches in any way. Valencia are running a tight shift in the back, conceding the least amount of goals in first half of the season, probably defensively their best season in years. Only team to have conceded less goals at home is Barca (by 1 goal). With all due respect to Real, with their streak (and the defeat by a mediocre Milan, despite the nature of the match and everything) being really long, I cant brush of the feeling they will stumble this time. Usually hosting Real or Barcelona is the ultimate motivator for teams and players, and this time Valencia has certain things going their way and the dodgy odds on Real... I see value in: Valencia or draw @ 2.60 (4/10 units) Draw @ 4.33 (2/10 units) Full time correct score 1:1 @ 8.5 (1/10 units) all bets placed at bet365. At the same time I am very tempted to back Sociedad vs Barca today, the value is there and Moyes seems like the odd man out who just might snatch a point. That is my popcorn bet for 1,5 units. good luck.

[Stoke City v Manchester United > Thursday January 1st]

Re: Stoke City v Manchester United > Thursday January 1st Dunno what to make of it, the odds on United cleary represent some value at least, but Stoke has played some decent football in the past weeks, outplaying United in at least 2 of 4 halfs played. Their wins over top teams could be "surprising" as you stated, but they have produced good performances in the past 5 games. I would really like to see where does Van Gaal plan on putting Rooney this time around. If he will be played up front with Van Persie, then I will back goals surely, with over 2,5 being @ 2.10 (bet365), which smells of value to me. If Van Gaal plans on using his "brilliant swaparoo" then I am backing DRAW @ 3.60 (bet365). Frankly I am unimpressed by Van Gaal and his time at the helm. Im no professional but a manager who spent tens of millions on four LB players, while having swiss cheese-a-like central defensive line is hardly Premiership winning material, but that is just my opinion.

[Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion > Sunday December 28th]

Re: Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion > Sunday December 28th

i'd be interesting to see how stoke managed to beat everton on tv

From what i've seen from Stoke in the last 3-4 matches, they are playing very efficiently, and they produced some nice chances, very tough in the middle..

[Ligue 2 > December 12th - 15th]

Re: Ligue 2 > December 12th - 15th Would be appreciated if the thread was not spammed, all in due time fellas ;)

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th senk I really appreciate your write-ups, but I would be more than grateful if you could use paragraphs to divide the text, which would make it easier for the rest of us to evaluate your thoughts :) thanks!

[NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th]

Re: NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th Well it was, but I expressed myself incorrectly, I was implying the first half performance by Schalke was not what I had expected and hoped for. :)

[NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th]

Re: NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th 0.4 units of loss... Really bad performance by Schalke, but at least the loss was contained with that goal, should Huntelaar have passed or scored in that last 1st half attack it would be great...

[FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk > Wednesday December 10th]

Re: FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk > Wednesday December 10th A word of caution, the same thing was spoken about last nights Benfica fixture, and they really cramped Bayer who was hopping to top the group with a win. Despite the fact that there might be some rotation I still cant expect a top-tier team to fail, just because they have a tough match 5 days from now. Their last match showed that Porto are a notch above Shaktar in every sense, despite the fact that they salvaged a point very late in the game, they were the dominating side in that match. Perhaps they will want a win in the last group-stage match too boost their confidence before that "very important" match as was stated. Shaktar is very solid away but they failed to produce anything note-worthy vs. serious opposition away from home, and today from what I've read Top scorer Luiz Adriano and the captain are out of the combination for the match. Nothing tragic but it will show surely. I would also expect some of Porto's fringe players to show their quality as they have a lot of talented players. Over all im not even smelling Shaktar tonight, and will probably bet against them, just need to find decent value in the markets.

[NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th]

Re: NK Maribor v FC Schalke 04 > Wednesday December 10th Agree with your statements, but desires and reality often part early on. What I see is Schalke desperate for a win, and they are coming to Maribor with 2 wins in the league, scoring an astonishing (even for Bundesliga) 8 goals and conceding 1. The only problem with such games is the effect of the other game being played at Stamford Bridge. Maribor, despite its appeal and really uber performances especially at home, is nearing its limit. They posses great discipline and team spirit, to them Schalke seems very appealing as the team believes they can achieve a historic success in tonights fixture. But I would like to note the unrealistic expectations of the home crowd and the club in general, a couple of good matches and already they believe they should be competing for top spots in the group.. This is very typical for the teams in the region and its also the undoing of the teams in important matches. I believe there is value to be had in-play if Chelsea respect their part of the deal and score an early goal. Should that happen I expect Schalke to outplay Maribor and smash a couple of goals. Maribor is very loose in the back conceding 5 (!) goals in their last 3 home games vs. crap opposition. Sporting outpaced Maribor to score 3, although Maribor had their chances. Its a tough nut to crack, there are absences in the Schalke squad, where Draxler, Farfan, Kolašinac and Goretzka are missing and a couple of doubts surrounding Boateng, Obasi, Felipe Santana and Sam. But in their last 2 games, vs. solid Bundesliga opposition these players were not starters anyways, so I wouldnt expect a heavy influence on the visiting side. Especially given the fact that Choupo-Moting, Huntelar scored 3 each and even Barnetta scored in the last 180 minutes of play. They produced some marvellous football and very efficient play creating numerous chances. In such games anything goes, and we've all seen bigger teams failing disgracefully in the past, but odds on Schalke seem too generous to pass. For starters I will bet a couple of units pre-game, and also try to find good value in-play. I will place pre-game bets at a domestic bookie in Slovenia, since they obviously favour the home. Pre-game- Local bookie: Schalke to win @ 1.80 (local bookie) 7/10 HT/FT - Schalke/Schalke @ 3.00; 3/10 Bet365 Total goals and btts - Over 2,5 & NO @ 7.00; 1/10 Goal in first 10 minutes - yes @ 4.00; 2/10 And all the rest I will try to formulate in-play depending on the other match. Good luck!

[Serie A TIM > December 5th - 8th]

Re: Serie A TIM > December 5th - 8th I am leaning towards the Napoli game. Empoli seems to rest on long odds. But the bet I will most likely place is Napoli Clean sheet - NO @ 1.80 (bet365) 4/10. Empoli is undefeated in their matchups vs Napoli for the last 5 games (winning 3 of 5, although these matches took place somewhere along the last decade, given Empoli's periodic Serie A status) while away to napoli. In the last 4 games Empoli scored 6 goals including their cup tie, enjoying their travels around Italy scoring 7 goals in their last 6 matches failing to score only vs. Udinese. All in all they do seem to nurture attacking football when the circumstances allow for it. And their goal scoring is well balanced between different players in the team, which suggests they do not rely on a sole goalscorer to produce results. Napoli at home is lacking consistency, well the only consistency I can see in their home fixtures is that they concede a lot. The only game which saw the guests fail to score was the fixture vs. Roma. Which I contribute to the match being somewhat of a derby of the round and Roma's awesome start to the season which probably upped the ante for Benitez and the crew. Despite their good roster, they just seem too lose in the back, especially in "easy" games, where they seem to be the clear favorites. Betting on the underdogs to score in San Paolo would produce a winning bet 5/5 last games. That is why I see value in this bet and will most likely bet on the visitors to score at least 1 goal in this early fixture. Ofcourse Napoli can always come up with something extraordinary and beat the opposition 4:0. But in the "lighter" fixtures they are just to relaxed in the back and with their attacking proves they can outscore pretty much all the lower teams in Italy, which adds to my confidence that they might let one slip in.

[Ligue 1 Orange > December 5th - 7th]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > December 5th - 7th Well they choked, and choked well they have :)

[Serie A TIM > November 29th - December 1st]

Re: Serie A TIM > November 29th - December 1st Sampdoria vs. Napoli A match where a very decent Sampa is ready to face off with Napoli, a team which is underachieving this season. Both teams are placed right under the top. The home team is probably very happy with their current situation and are awaiting tonights match with a full roster (excl. Viviano), whereas Napoli will be without Zuniga, Michu & Insigne. Napoli will be trying to bounce back after a horrific draw at home vs. Cagliari, but I think that Sampa is not the right team for such things. The guests here are actually one of the teams I loathe in Serie A, because of their tendency to drop points at the most unlikely matches. Both teams are on a decent streak, where Napoli is unbeaten for 9 matches in Serie A, while the hosts have only 1 defeat in as many matches (Inter away), being unbeaten at home this season with 2 draws. The interesting thing is that the last defeat for Sampa at home was provided by none other than Napoli, winning 2:5 last season. Well Sampdoria is a different team now, and I firmly believe that they can extend their unbeaten run for another match while Napoli seems to have some problems with consistency. Them drawing last 2 matches (incl. Europa L.) adds to my confidence that this match will see the two teams sharing the spoils. My bet for this match is DRAW @ 3.4 (bet365) 3/10.