bairn1
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Posts posted by bairn1
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE=width: 809]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE=width: 809]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins One for midweek... [TABLE=width: 714]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE=width: 809]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE=width: 901]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE=width: 357]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Okay, here goes. Not sure whether to start afresh with a new bank, or continue where we left off, but while I have a think about it, here are the picks for January 1st - quite a few!... [TABLE=width: 1112]
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Thanks rook (I think!) The only reason I didn't really want to get fully going on this again, was just because of the Christmas period and not being able to get into a routine with this. I won't put these as official picks, but in case you're interested, the latest picks are... [TABLE=width: 565]I'm sorry Bairn but I couldn't disagree with you more. January 1st is not a good time to restart your great picks. .... December 11 is !!!! ;) -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi all, It's been a while! Just to say that I've got a bit more time these days, and if anyone is interested, I'm thinking about posting some of these tips again. I've tweaked the system slightly, so the new system will throw up the odd tip that the old one wouldn't have, and vice versa. Largely, it's still the same though. As before, these are "value" tips and are often at high odds, so losing runs are common, but patience has always been rewarded and this system has always made a very good long term profit. I think January 1st is a good time to get going on this, so will be back then! Hopefully these will be use to some people. Cheers for now!
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi there, Just to let you know that I am still planning on returning to the forum at some point, but if I was to just now, it would probably be very stop-start. So it wouldn't give a consistent account of the bets that the system throws up. After the relative disappointment of the last season, the system has been performing very well this season with an ROI of nearly 30% this season to level stakes, which is pretty consistent with the long term ROI. Anyway, looking at lawalahmed's site, I think the same selections (or very nearly the same ones) are getting posted. I like the idea of a small covering stake on the draw too.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I'm still following this myself, but I'm taking a bit of a break from posting the tips and results on here. Since the redesign of the site last year, I've always had a bit of trouble posting, and sometimes it would take ages to post a simple message. Plus, I've got a few other things on the go at the moment that might mean I'd struggle to get the tips on here regularly. However, as soon as time permits, I will return, though I'll possibly mix things up a bit by posting tips from another system.
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L P/L 2011/12 P/L Overall ROI Overall 05/05/2012 Charlton 3 - 2 Hartlepool 6.5 -£5.00 -£6.80 £498.90 29.63% 05/05/2012 Hannover 2 - 1 Kaiserslautern 9.25 -£3.50 -£10.30 £495.40 29.37% 05/05/2012 St Mirren 0 - 1 Inverness C 3.2 £23.10 £12.80 £518.50 30.54% 07/05/2012 St Etienne 0 - 0 Marseille 3.5 -£9.50 £3.30 £509.00 29.82% -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 for the weekend... 05/05/2012 | Charlton v Hartlepool | £5.00 at 6.5 (General) 05/05/2012 | Hannover v Kaiserslautern | £3.50 at 9.25 (Bwin) 05/05/2012 | St Mirren v Inverness C | £10.50 at 3.2 (General) 07/05/2012 | St Etienne v Marseille | £9.50 at 3.5 (Marathon)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Good point! The ROI (to level stakes) for when I've been betting on this is 31%.Hi' date=' bairn. You mentioned a longterm ROI of 28%. What i would like to know is the [b']live ROI. I suspect these results you're mentioning include the back-testing period. When have you started to play the system with real money and what is your ROI since then? -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Hi Grex, I completely agree. There's some other systems I bet to that have done okay and given me a decent profit, but overall, my profit is well down on what it's been in previous years. Plus, I heard earlier in the season from a syndicate that a number of their "pro" gamblers had been losing a lot of money, particularly in the English lower leagues. I think the difference in how this system has performed this season compared to last season is a good example as to why you need to look at a very large number of bets before you can really rate how good a system is. If I had just been looking at this "aways" system this season only (with a profit/loss that is pretty much negligible), then I probably wouldn't bother carrying it forward to next season. However, knowing how it has performed in the long run (with an ROI of around 28% to level stakes), then I can confidently use it next season, knowing that there's a very good chance it'll produce a good profit.Just "one of those things"' date= Winningbin. It has been a season to forget for many systems (including mine). So, let's hope for a change in fortunes next season. :hope I think you have to avoid the temptation of trying to "tweek" your systems.... just accept a bad run and hope for better times. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L P/L 2011/12 P/L Overall ROI Overall 20/04/2012 Southend 3 - 0 Barnet 6.05 -£5.50 £13.20 £518.90 31.19% 21/04/2012 Cardiff 1 - 1 Leeds 5.3 -£6.50 £6.70 £512.40 30.68% 21/04/2012 Charlton 2 - 1 Wycombe 6.28 -£5.50 £1.20 £506.90 30.25% 22/04/2012 Paris SG 5 - 1 Sochaux 11 -£3.00 -£1.80 £503.90 30.02% -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 20/04/2012 | Southend v Barnet | £5.50 at 6.05 (Pinnacle) 21/04/2012 | Cardiff v Leeds | £6.50 at 5.3 (Marathon) 21/04/2012 | Charlton v Wycombe | £5.50 at 6.28 (Pinnacle) 22/04/2012 | Paris SG v Sochaux | £3.00 at 11 (Titan)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins A bit unfortunate again by the sounds of things. This is shaping up to be a season to forget!
Date Match Odds P/L P/L 2011/12 P/L Overall ROI Overall 14/04/2012 Sunderland 0 - 0 Wolves 7.5 -£5.50 £41.20 £546.90 33.44% 14/04/2012 Watford 1 - 1 Hull 3.3 -£12.00 £29.20 £534.90 32.47% 14/04/2012 Torquay 0 - 0 Southend 3.75 -£10.50 £18.70 £524.40 31.63% -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 14/04/2012 | Sunderland v Wolves | £5.50 at 7.5 (Boyle) 14/04/2012 | Watford v Hull | £12.00 at 3.3 (PaddyPower) 14/04/2012 | Torquay v Southend | £10.50 at 3.75 (Ladbrokes)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins [TABLE]
[TR] [TH]Date[/TH] [TH]Match[/TH] [TH]Odds[/TH] [TH]P/L[/TH] [TH]P/L 2011/12[/TH] [TH]P/L Overall[/TH] [TH]ROI Overall[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 07/04/2012 [/TD] [TD]Sheffield United 2 - 1 Bournemouth[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]-£6.50[/TD] [TD]£82.20[/TD] [TD]£587.90[/TD] [TD]36.87%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 07/04/2012 [/TD] [TD]Freiburg 2 - 2 Nurnberg[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]-£11.00[/TD] [TD]£71.20 [/TD] [TD]£576.90[/TD] [TD]35.93%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 07/04/2012 [/TD] [TD]St Johnstone 0 - 0 Inverness C[/TD] [TD]4.33[/TD] [TD]-£9.00[/TD] [TD]£62.20[/TD] [TD]£567.90[/TD] [TD]35.17%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 07/04/2012 [/TD] [TD]Getafe 2 - 0 Sp Gijon[/TD] [TD]5.6[/TD] [TD]-£7.00[/TD] [TD]£55.20[/TD] [TD]£560.90[/TD] [TD]34.59%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 08/04/2012 [/TD] [TD]Paris SG 2 - 1 Marseille [/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [TD]-£8.50[/TD] [TD]£46.70[/TD] [TD]£552.40[/TD] [TD]33.89%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Thanks for your message. Despite its fairly average performance this season, I've not really thought about modifying the system to any great extent for next season. It's the same system that has been getting 30%+ ROI long term, so I've no real worry that the recent downward trend will have a significant long term effect. One small thing I might look at is ignoring matches where either team's previous match involved a red card. I think if a player gets sent off, especially early on, then this can mess up the stats a bit. From back-testing, it doesn't have a huge effect, but the ROI does increase a bit. I won't do anything this season, but will have a think in the summer and may introduce it next season.Hey Bairn just wanted to let you know 9 times out of 10 when I'm on PL I check out your thread and I think your doing a great job!:ok Also I fancied Hoffenheim there on the 24th March and when I seen you were backing it too it made my decision that bit easier and needless to say I was delighted when it came up.:nana Have you thought of modifying your system at all for next season? -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 07/04/2012 | Sheffield United v Bournemouth | £6.50 at 6 (General) 07/04/2012 | Freiburg v Nurnberg | £11.00 at 3.6 (William Hill) 07/04/2012 | St Johnstone v Inverness C | £9.00 at 4.33 (BetFred) 07/04/2012 | Getafe v Sp Gijon | £7.00 at 5.6 (Marathon) 08/04/2012 | Paris SG v Marseille | £8.50 at 4.8 (Pinnacle)
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Hi there, It has been discussed a few times, and I'd say that if you're after a more steady system with a better strike rate then it could be worth considering. (As might betting the away team on the Asian Handicap). You would be taking a bit hit on the ROI though. There have been a lot of draws recently, but in the long run there aren't actually that many. This season there have only been 26, which is about 22.8%. This equates to odds of around 4.4, which I guess is a lot more than the average odds we'd have got on these selections. And for the four seasons previous to this, you'd actually have lost more money by betting on draws than you would have by betting on homes. Hope this helps.Maybe it's been mentioned before but I've noticed a lot of these games that don't go to an away team end up in a draw. Maybe looking into laying the favourite would be a good idea. -
Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins
Date Match Odds P/L P/L 2011/12 P/L Overall ROI Overall 31/03/2012 Crewe 1 - 1 Northampton 4.2 -£9.50 £88.70 £594.40 37.43%
Bairn's Value Away Wins
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Sorry all. I do hope to get up and running again, but struggling for time at the moment. I had been planning on doing this on Monday and Thursday lunchtimes at my work, but this site is blocked there and it doesn't work properly on my mobile. I will hopefully get going again before too long. In the meantime, if you are interested, I've been posting these system bets and bets from a couple of other systems on Twitter from @bettingbrain and will easily be able to keep this up to date!