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FedericoBTH

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Posts posted by FedericoBTH

    BBOTD Tuesday 13th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Tuesday 13th 5.35 NOTTINGHAM BRAVE BOY Evens (SkyBet) Despite I like the chances of About Turn here I prefer to stick with the experienced Brave Boy for Saeed bin Suroor. He clearly won his maiden at 4/5 almost a month ago, keeping the field at a safe distance for at least half of the race and now looks the correct fav here even if maybe a little bit short especially because that time second (stablemate Music Theory) subsequently won at Newmarket in very good style.. About Turn is surely interesting but the form of Kempton is always hard to work out so I'll pass on him despite a winning debut more often than not is a proof of true talent. Saeed at Nottingham is well above 40% with juveniles and this time I think the market is correct despite both the horses are from Godolphin. Silvestre de Sousa keeps the ride.

    BBOTD Monday 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Monday 12th 7.40 WINDSOR REGAL SILK 7/4 (Coral #BOG) This is what I wrote about this 3yo filly on July 22nd, when she broke her maiden tag.

    Jeremy Noseda entered this 3yo filly in a maiden for the fourth time despite she probably had not fulfilled (yet) her debut promise in her next two races. Anyway I like her chances today, starting with a closer look to her form: 2nd to Seek Again (later runner-up in a Class 3 race) on debut, 2nd again on the A.W. a short head behind Opera Box (who made a couple of 2nds in both Class 3 and 4 later, now rated 83) and finally 7th (but led by Richard Hughes, not known for looking hard at placing if well beaten) in a very strong maiden contest (winner is rated 101 and won a Listed since, Riposte, second that day, won at Ascot in a G3 race, the third, fourth and fifth all broke the maiden tag a couple of runs later). This time the field looks absolutely more beatable and the three-months break should have been good for her after a not so profitable winter training. She's probably not a standout horse as she didn't progress as expected but she can't be discounted in such a weaker contest, especially with Ryan Moore again in the saddle. Jeremy Noseda is 17-59 at the track with 3yo for a lsp of +£ 10.24 and his stable is flying this month, standing at a superb 33% strike rate which is even better (40%) if looking only at 3yo.
    Most of it, like horse potential and of course track stats, will apply today again as this Noseda product is lined up again over the same C&D. For her handicap debut ground conditions too are the same than lto and a mark of 79 seems handeable, especially because of the WFA allowance she will have today in a time of the year very favourable for 3yos. Three weeks ago she won very well and with Ryan Moore confirmed on the ride she's the clear favourite in a field which lacks of depth. Main danger will be Kirby led Lucky Henry but he's 4lbs heavyer than lto (2 and a half months ago) and more than a stone if compared to our selection. 7/4 BOG still available somewhere and definitely tasty.

    BBOTD Saturday 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 10th 3.25 HAYDOCK EXPRESSLY 4/1 (PaddyPower #BOG) Missed 9/2 by minutes but it's still worth opposing Ultrasonic in this one imho. Stoute's horse always brings in thereabouts on her attititude to win a race despite great class and the fact she's almost always in the frame. Expressly did everything very well on her debut a couple of weeks ago winning easily by 4 1/2 lenghts and her potential isn't really exposed at all. Appleby got his first ever win as a trainer with this 3yo filly and has a lot of expectations for this second run confirming the partnership with Barzalona which is a real top quality pick. Of course this is an hard one to pick from but it will be fun to watch too and probably it's worth a punt on.

    BBOTD Friday 9th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 9th 2.00 MUSSELBURGH SPLIT ROCK 13/8 (Bet365 #BOG) Back to the comp after a couple of weeks of absence and restarting with today opener. Split Rock is the standout in this nursery having been in the money 6/6 in his career with one win on his debut. Mark Johnston still have to find his first 2yo winner this month after 21 tries and this one could be the right one considering premises. A class 2 second place back in May and a decent third at course behind two promising horses are a good start to build on today. Debuting over 7f (this could be a key move considering breeding) should be the first choice of the yard despite my biggest worry is just his stablemate Atheera. 13/8 is big in my eyes in such a poor race.

    BBOTD Wednesday 24th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 24th July 5.20 WORCESTER OLD PALS ACT 9/4 (Bet365 #BOG) Form steadily improving last three runs (two straight seconds) since reappearing after the winter break and probably ready to break his maiden tag. Made a very good final effort lto and being again under the same ride (of the champion jockey) should be a plus. Debuting at Worcester which is a good track for McManus horses trained by O'Neill and I do not see any real contender in the field. Only question is the relatively short trip, a couple of furlongs more probably suit him best.

    BBOTD tuesday 23rd july

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD tuesday 23rd july 4.45 SOUTHWELL CUT THE CARDS Evens (Bet365 #BOG) I followed closely the horse but he never made my BBOTD. After two impressive winning efforts I'm ready to jump on his train especially because I think a 7lbs penalty isn't enough to stop him today. Double distance winner and also course winner lto 9 days ago, improving race by race and still enjoying a lot the addition of cheekpieces. He didn't had to do very much to win last two races and today it will be a tougher (because more leveled) contest but none in the field seems to be at his level of form and ability. It's worth a try at evens.

    BBOTD monday 22 july

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD monday 22 july 6.50 WINDSOR REGAL SILK 2/1 (Bet365 #BOG) Jeremy Noseda entered this 3yo filly in a maiden for the fourth time despite she probably had not fulfilled (yet) her debut promise in her next two races. Anyway I like her chances today, starting with a closer look to her form: 2nd to Seek Again (later runner-up in a Class 3 race) on debut, 2nd again on the A.W. a short head behind Opera Box (who made a couple of 2nds in both Class 3 and 4 later, now rated 83) and finally 7th (but led by Richard Hughes, not known for looking hard at placing if well beaten) in a very strong maiden contest (winner is rated 101 and won a Listed since, Riposte, second that day, won at Ascot in a G3 race, the third, fourth and fifth all broke the maiden tag a couple of runs later). This time the field looks absolutely more beatable and the three-months break should have been good for her after a not so profitable winter training. She's probably not a standout horse as she didn't progress as expected but she can't be discounted in such a weaker contest, especially with Ryan Moore again in the saddle. Jeremy Noseda is 17-59 at the track with 3yo for a lsp of +£ 10.24 and his stable is flying this month, standing at a superb 33% strike rate which is even better (40%) if looking only at 3yo.

    BBOTD - Sunday 21st July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Sunday 21st July 4.00 STRATFORD STRONGLY SUGGESTED 9/4 (PaddyPower #BOG) The in-form horse of this novice hurdle field, probably not suited by the short trip lto, now entered again in a 2m 3f race (same distance as his last win) under the same mark after a 25 days break. He seems to enjoy even the fastest ground so today's going won't be a problem. He has quality and form to prevail, supported by strong connections. McCoy in the saddle, will benefit from lto experience when the horse hung at times.

    BBOTD > Saturday 20th of July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday 20th of July

    3.05 NEWMARKET (JULY) SAFETY CHECK 1/6 (BetFred #BOG) Probably I've never tipped such a shortie but I fancied at 8/13 earlier in the morning and now with two NR and just one to beat it's like printing some cash. First effort at Haydock over 6f when second to Mawfoor, great gallop despite some greeness, the extra furlong should suit and will be useful to avoid any danger. bin Suroor and Barza won't let this out.
    Won by 24L on the bridle at a SP of 1/25. LOL Hate odds on favs but this was probably best deal of my life. :loon

    BBOTD > Saturday 20th of July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Saturday 20th of July 3.05 NEWMARKET (JULY) SAFETY CHECK 1/6 (BetFred #BOG) Probably I've never tipped such a shortie but I fancied at 8/13 earlier in the morning and now with two NR and just one to beat it's like printing some cash. First effort at Haydock over 6f when second to Mawfoor, great gallop despite some greeness, the extra furlong should suit and will be useful to avoid any danger. bin Suroor and Barza won't let this out.

    BBOTD - Friday 19th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Friday 19th July 6.20 NEWMARKET (JULY) FOLK MELODY 2/1 (BetVictor #BOG) I don't bet on unraced horses very often but this one really caught my eye today. Heavily backed on the exchanges (opened at 4.75) despite the small race this is should run on the best ground considering his pedigree. Godolphin targeted this race in the past with two winners in the last 3 years and Saeed bin Suroor, who's 32% (+£ 13.80 lsp) on his home track with 2yo, is having a hell of a month (even more than usual in July) striking almost at 50% with the youngest animals. The combo with Barza is usally pure gold in terms of profit and the guy is having a rock solid period. Still available at 2/1 somewhere, I don't expect it to last very long. Big field of course but early market is always a clue in these situations.

    BBOTD - Thursday 18th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 18th July 7.55 DONCASTER ZARAEE 6/4 (BetVictor #BOG) Zaraee won a maiden 14 days ago showing greenness at different stages but he'll be for sure one to look for considering his pedigree and the trust connections put in this 200,000 gns colt already entered in a Group 2 race later in the season. In Haydock he has beaten Rogue Wave who had benfit of experience and previously ran at Ascot like Andhesontherun who'll run today. I've noticed Ascot form isn't working out very well at medium/low level so the fav is worth opposing today. Firm ground not a problem, absolutely manageable race (do not forget it's a class 5 contest), Haggas usually flies with 2yo in early summer and Hanagan (who's a decent jockey) already has experience on the horse. Small field of 4 runners so it's worth a try at the price.

    BBOTD - Wednesday 17th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 17th July 9.00 WORCESTER DON'T BE LATE 5/2 (Bet365 #BOG) In my opinion this is another example of a Jonjo horse entered in the perfect race for him. One of the less exposed over hurdles of the field, still improving and not bad in his last two similar (2m 4f class 4) efforts when 3rd at Wetherby and 4th at Uttoxeter. This is a tougher race (0-120) but he's lighter from 3 to 8 lbs than most of his appealing rivals and I'm sure he'll bang sooner or later. AP in great form as trainer stable of course and Worcester is a well known track for both. The horse too loves the course, being the lonely CD winner of the field. Could drift approaching the off, so it's worth a try.

    BBOTD > Sunday 14th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday 14th July

    15:10 SOUTHWELL WESTERN HIGH @ 7/2 BET365 Jim Best trained, the stable are absolutely flying at the moment, last 11 runners have produced 5 winners, the other 6 all placed. This horse is a JIM BEST handicap project, a winner of a bumper back in December 2011. Makes his Handicap debut today, off a mark of 104, the handicapper not really any idea from what this horse has achieved, and this mark could be very lenient , based on it's bumper form, is a fair bumper performer when winning at Towcester. Milesey
    Agree with you about the handicapper not knowing anything about the horse Milesey and very surprised to find it at 5/1 at SJ this morning. My concerns are the long absence and mainly the booking of STD who's having a very bad season. Jockey could be crucial in such a race imho. On Amuse Me as per my BBOTD but love the gamble on Western High so GL mate!

    BBOTD > Sunday 14th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Sunday 14th July 3.10 SOUTHWELL AMUSE ME 7/2 (Bet365 #BOG) Always interested in this one but it never made my final cut before today. After a very decent 5th place quite two weeks ago in a 0-115 handicap hurdle this grey is back to his favourite distance of 2m 4f in a very affordable contest and under a even more handy mark of 107 (was 108 at Stratford). Won twice on good-to-firm ground and already 5 wins under his belt as a hurdler, the last when 104 OR. So, given the fact his recent form was interesting (considering his winning pedigree), ground will suit and the step up in trip it's a plus, combined with the ride of A P McCoy who's 5/8 on hurdles with the horse and the pretty good price in a modest field with no clear favourite, finally Amuse Me will be my BBOTD. Western High is another one to watch close, especially because still at 5/1 despite a steady improvement throughout his career.

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