FedericoBTH
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Posts posted by FedericoBTH
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Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Some strange odds I'm gonna taking advantage of: Ulisses v FC Sheriff Sheriff just started the home league showing a great performance and Ulisses is stuck at the bottom of the table in Armenia. Partial covering with the AH just in case Sheriff will think to for a draw. Sheriff -0.25 @1.90 (188bet) Shamrock v Ekranas Ok, this one could look crazy for many of you but Shamrock is not showing their best football in domestic league, now standing 10 points away the 1st place. They're very good at home, for sure, but Ekranas is literally dominating in Lithuania and in previous CL round shown a great effort reaching the qual as an underdog. Probably I'll take a further look to this match for 2nd game, 'cause I feel pretty strong about a possible upset in Lithuania. Ekranas +0.5@2.20 (Pinnacle Sports)
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July SOUTHWELL 6.00 Wreningham - 0.5pts E/W 12/1 (VCBet) BOG This one popped out immediately out of the racecards. 5f longtime specialist this 7yo has an incredible 2/4 record over C+D, having collected two wins there last December. He is a very competitive horse over this distance and except for Soopacal I don't see anyone else clearly better than him on paper. Back to Class 5 after some decent performances in 4 (he was 5th out of 9 when back after break just two weeks ago at Salisbury in a very great race) and with the same mark of 64 but with the Kenny's 5lb claim I really think he could run for the money with ease. A win will be hard to get but I think at 12/1 this guy is absolutely overpriced, so I'm gonna take a juicy E/W early.
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BEVERLEY 2.00 Capitol Gain - 0.5pts E/W 9/1 (Betfred) BOG Very very speculative bet in a very poor race imho. Capitol Gain will use cheekpieces today and I'm curious to see what could produce under these conditions, after a very good performance in Windsor last month in his handicap debut, which was also his only trip over today distance. Lower mark today and Brian Meehan usually send good horses there in Beverley, so even considered the situation of the three favs (Ella Jade charged of +4 in hc and unexposed over 10f, Scarlet Prince definitely not impressive in the only hc appearance and Bada Bing absolutely overrated, mainly because of Winston presence) a good run doesn't look impossible to me. SOUTHWELL 6.00 Wreningham - 0.5pts E/W 12/1 (VCBet) BOG This one popped out immediately out of the racecards. 5f longtime specialist this 7yo has an incredible 2/4 record over C+D, having collected two wins there last December. He is a very competitive horse over this distance and except for Soopacal I don't see anyone else clearly better than him on paper. Back to Class 5 after some decent performances in 4 (he was 5th out of 9 when back after break just two weeks ago at Salisbury in a very great race) and with the same mark of 64 but with the Kenny's 5lb claim I really think he could run for the money with ease. A win will be hard to get but I think at 12/1 this guy is absolutely overpriced, so I'm gonna take a juicy E/W early. ----- FLAT SEASON Bets: 4 Wins: 1 SR: 25.00% P/L: +3.00£ Yield: +75.00%
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Re: BBOTD Monday 16th July First post for me on the BBOTD thread, glad to join such great punters. I hope to be at least decent compared to you...:) WINDSOR 6.10 Style and Panache - 1pt Win 13/2 (VCBet) BOG Loved her at Doncaster and today handicapper gives her a 2lb bonus compared to that race. She's a lovely horse capable of great performances and horrible days, 5f is her distance and the ground doesn't look a problem (I don't call it a plus but it could be).
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Re: FLAT RACING MON 16TH JULY 4 meetings today, hope I'll find something good. SOUTHWELL 3.15 Flying Pickets - 1pt Win 6/1 (VCBet) Apparently not in great form recently but lto gave me a not so bad impression and today with a drop in class could perform well. A little drop in rating too and also the 7lbs claim of Twiston Davies improve the opportunities here. Won 4 times over 7f and 3 on this track. Probably was overrated but in Class 6 still has chances. AYR 3.35 Orbit The Moon - 1pt Win 13/2 (StanJames) Michael Dods' stable is in great form recently with 4 winners last 14 days and Orbit was 3rd and 4th lto over D here at Ayr. Same hc mark than in June and May but with Topliss' 3lb claim which could help. To me it looks like a no brainer for the money but price is a little bit short for the E/W. SOUTHWELL 3.45 D'Urberville - 1pt Win 13/2 (VCBet) Former C+D winner, back to 1m after being out in 2011, was 6/11 in a great race at Lingfield over 10f last month. Major plus are the mark drop compared to lto and Jenkins' love for Southwell. Just Missed the 15/2 price. WINDSOR 6.10 Style and Panache - 1pt Win 13/2 (VCBet) Loved her at Doncaster and today handicapper gives her a 2lb bonus compared to that race. She's a lovely horse capable of great performances and horrible days, 5f is her distance and the ground doesn't look a problem (I don't call it a plus but it could be).
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ June 2012 Thank you Billy! I definitely missed it! KUTGW!
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ June 2012 Ehy Billy, first of all thanks for the effort you put in this project, very useful for those, like me, like to tail some of incredibly strong punters here on PL. But I've a question (Skylar, you're one of my favs, forgive me) which one of the two yesterday Skylar's tips you've considered for the rankings? I wish to be so good to join you but now I'm still learning...:)
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 10th of May Just by a nose Aidy! Many thanks for yesterday's winner!
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Doncaster 5.50 Figaro is probably more talented but back under the handicap is a question mark for today. West End Lad is the only other standout out of the six starters and had already raced under an 85 OR in mid-April (Newcastle, same distance) with a much more competitive parterre. I see a battle between these two and West End placement is well priced. BACK WEST END LAD: 0.5pts Win (@5.2) / 1 pt Place (@2.60) Thirsk 6.05 Ratings pulled up 3/4 names out of the starting lineup but I really like Sleepy Blue Ocean. Fair mark from the handicapper, proven on the distance and with a good to soft going. I don't know if it will be enough to win but one out of four places is priced too high and I'm gonna take it with small stakes. BACK SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN: 0.5pts Win (@37) / 1pt Place (@3.85) Awful awful day for me, flat racing absolutely crazy today. Wiped out all yesterday's profits and much more.
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Goodwood 3.30 Woolfall Treasure is my selection: good performances on this distance (quite a specialist) and a previously well backed handicap. Taikoo is the main threat but its handicap will be a question mark, whilst Four Nations is quite unexposed on this distance and the handicap for Spice Fair it's very big. Small stakes because it will be not easy. BACK WOOLFALL TREASURE: 0.5pts Win (@11) / 1pt Place (@3) Newmarket 3.45 I'm going to back two horses because in a 16 run races it's no shame. Margot Did is a horse capable of winning and offering great ratings on this distance, plus is 2/2 on 5f when going is good to soft; nice price for a likely winner. Hamish McGonagall is a 5f specialist with a very solid record of wins and placements so the offering for him is absolutely rewarding. BACK MARGOT DID: 1pt Win (@9) / 2pts Place (@3.10) BACK HAMISH MCGONAGALL: 1pt Win (@9) / 2pts Place (@3.05) Goodwood 4.05 Ratings say Barefoot Lady is the clear fav here but she never won on this distance and that's the reason why I'm backing it only with small stake. Winter's Nights is the main danger but Neutrafa has shown good form recently and even Esentepe, not brilliant on 1m in its career, could be in the race. Not much value on the odds here but I've decided to back Barefoot Lady anyway because of the clear advantage in the ratings. BACK BAREFOOT LADY: 0.5pts Win ONLY (@2.40) Newmarket 4.20 In a crowded Class 2 event where one fav (heavy capped) is a NR (Es Que Love) and the others are penalized I'm going with Alejandro, a solid and shaped 3YO dropped of 1 point in OR after a convincing debut in HC three weeks ago right here in Newmarket. A placement is absolutely reachable and the odds are nice to make a good try for the placement. BACK ALEJANDRO: 0.5pts Win (@29) / 2pts Place (@6) More to come (late races of current meetings and Doncaster) in a couple of hours.
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Newmarket 2.00 A load of talent in this Class 2 race, very unpredictable but I've decided to choose Circumvent, a horse with good rating on the distance and solid ones under a 100 OR like today, plus a good experience when going soft/good to soft. I think he could perform well and a placement is not out of question. Fury and Proponent are heavy handicapped and it will be harder than ever for them especially for the latter, back to the races after 8 months. Keep an eye on Albaqaa for the placements, nice odds at the moment. BACK CIRCUMVENT: 1pt Win (@10) / 2pts Place (@2.62) Goodwood 2.15 Interesting race with an interesting selection. For the ratings Vita Nova is a class above all the other starters and will be an obvious selection but I've decided to pick one more horse with nice ratings, particularly on 1m 4f because I think the price for the placement is very good and it will be Qushchi. Staking plan built to be profitable if Vita Nova will not win (even if it's hard to believe). BACK VITA NOVA: 1pt Win ONLY (@1.56) BACK QUSCHI: 0.5pts Win (@23) / 1pt Place (@3.55) Thirsk 2.40 Sky Crossing is the clear fav, having shown a great form recently at Kempton on the sam distance and has a great chance to beat included Henry Bee, probably the major threat here. Placement is a lock for the ratings. BACK SKY CROSSING: 1pt Win (@4) / 3pts Place @(1.65) Newmarket 3.10 (2000 Guineas) Just to specify that I'll don't pick anything from this race. NO BACKING More to come later.
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 04/05 P/L (3% BetDAQ commissions already deducted). Musselburgh 3.30: +2.99p/4.50 staked (1 Win & Placed) Wolverhampton 3.40: +4.45p/4.50 staked (2 Placed) Musselburgh 4.00: +5.83p/3.75 staked (1 Win & Placed) Wolverhampton 4.10: +0.49p/1.50 staked (1 Placed) Wolverhampton 4.40: -0.75p/-0.75 staked (-) Musselburgh 5.00: +1.01p/3.00 staked (1 placed) Day Total: +14.02p/18.00 staked (+77.89% net yield) Bond Fastrac beaten by a head denied me a nice profit on a 16/1 horse but whatever, the day was simply amazing anyway. :)
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Of course odds for Mullins Way are clearly messed up. It never was @5.00, so I'll correct with @13.50 to Win and @3.00 to Place (which are actual prices). I apologize for the error.
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Updated the post with all the racecards for today. Thank you Santos!
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Re: FedericoBTH Backs the Horses - 2012 Hi Matty! I don't know what do you mean for major success. My yield could be up and down during the weeks, of course the main target is to be profitable at the end of the month (even if sometimes is possible to have a downtrend). Usually I'm statisfied when I close a month with a positive return of 5%+ but I've decided to write a diary also to gather more opinions on my work and to have a better look on what races my ratings have the best performances. ;) MUSSELBURGH MEETING Current going: Good to Soft 2.00 Handicap (Class 6) (3YO only) Winner £1,941 - 5f (9 run) No particular advantage for the going. Wild Sauce have the best recent form and the best overall rating over 5f but the +4 jump in the OR, combined with the very high draw are worrying me. Too many alternatives and no standout looking ones. No selections. 2.30 Group Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (2YO only) Winner £5,175 - 5f (10 run) No selections. 3.00 Handicap (Class 3) (3YO only) Winner £7,763 - 1m 1f (8 run) No horses tested on the distance and too many similar ratings. No selections. 3.30 Handicap (Class 4) (4YO plus) Winner £5,175 - 1m 1f (11 run) Botham is an experienced 7yo on the distance but has never ran with an OR of 72; Collateral Damage's last experience on 9f is back to 2009 but today has an interesting OR and shouldn't be considered out for the placements; Staff Sergeant collected some good ratings back in 2011 with best starting lineups than today and could be a good placed, whilst Mullins Way have the best ratings on the distance and could hit the first career win. Selections: Mullins Way 1pt Win (@5.00) / 2pts Place (@2.02) Staff Sergeant 0.5pts Win (@9.60) / 1pt Place (@2.78) 4.00 Handicap (Class 3) (4YO plus) Winner £6,469 - 7f 30y (12 run) Powerful Presence seems to be more powerful than ever and even with another +2 in the OR it seems the most reasonable choice today (already 3 wins over 7f); on the opposite side I see Reigner, a 5yo that has already won over this distance (Haydock, last July) and today dropped about 3 points on OR and could be a very interesting choice for the placement at this price. I also suggest to have a deeper look at Santefisio because these odds for a not bad horses even in 12 run event are definitely too high. Selections: Powerful Presence 1pt Win (@5.60) / 2pts Place (@2.08) Reigner 0.25pts Win (@36) / 0.50pts Place (@7.50) 4.30 Handicap (Class 5) (4YO plus) Winner £3,881 - 1m 6f (12 run) I don't see anything interesting here, probably a low profile race. No selections. 5.00 Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) Winner £1,941 - 7f 30y (11 run) Cymflyder is the clear fav here, only thing could bother me is the handicap he will face today. Turning Circle returns at the races after quite 2 years: many placements over 6f in the past but the debut in the handicap and the long period without races could be too much. Selections: Cymflyder 1pt Win (@5.40) / 2pts Place (@2.02) WOLVERHAMPTON MEETING Current going: Standard 2.10 Maiden Stakes (Div 1) (Class 5) (3YO plus) Winner £2,264 - 7f 32y (10 run) No selections because of too many horses with just one or two races. 2.40 Maiden Stakes (Div 2) (Class 5) (3YO plus) Winner £2,264 - 7f 32y (10 run) No selections due of lacking ratings for many horses. 3.10 Selling Stakes (Class 6) (3YO only) Winner £1,704 - 7f 32y (10 run) No selections due of lacking ratings for a couple of horses . 3.40 Handicap (Class 5) (4YO plus) Winner £2,264 - 5f 216y (13 run) Restless Bay has good ratings for me despite last final positions and it's a viable choice for the win today with another drop in OR; Bond Fastrac is pretty solid on this distance and I'll be very surprised if he will not finish in first 4/5 positions; look out for the old Imprimis Tagula for the placements (for today he dropped 3 points in OR); Piddie's Power is another good alternative but the 75 OR is limiting its performances. Selections: Restless Bay 1pt Win (@7.90) / 2pts Place (@2.57) Bond Fastrac 0.5pts Win (@16) / 1pt Place (@3.95) 4.10 Handicap (Class 4) (4YO plus) Winner £4,205 - 5f 20y (11 run) Desert Strike won two minor class 5 races over 5f this year and it's a very consistent horse with a question mark about his performances under such a high handicap; Corageous is a fav for the bookies but actually was never really competitive over this distance in the past, whilst Island Legend, another one with positive ratings for me, was absolutely not impressive LTO under an 85 OR. Selections: Desert Strike 0.5pt Win (@5.90) / 1pt Place (@2.00) 4.40 Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) Winner £1,704 - 1m 4f 50y (10 run) Just a little stake on White Deere, a horse with positive background on the distance and a very affordable handicap. Selections: White Deere 0.25pt Win (@9.30) / 0.5pts Place (@2.51) 5.10 Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) Winner £1,704 - 1m 141y (11 run) Whit Stylistickhill declared NR it's a coin flip between Douze Points (HC penalized) and Piccolo Express (good form but never impressive on the distance), and also Bold Cross couldn't be take off the contention even with its bad 2011 final stint. No selections. 5.40 Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) Winner £1,704 - 1m 1f 103y (12 run) So Is She is in a very good form, Harrys Yer Man is a proven competitor, Bygones for coin is an interesting 4YO looking for the first career win, Avon Supreme should be respected. Very nice race but absolutely impredictable. No selections.
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Hi everyone! I'm an italian full-time (but young) punter. After thousands and thousands of hours spent on USA Sports and football I've stated the best way to make some money is betting on horse racing, because with the right tools you can make nice paydays. I use a particular type of ratings to pick my daily favs BUT I do not rely solely on a certain differential of points or particular system selections. All what I do is looking at the ratings and trying to find an edge. Recent rating form, LTO speed, on going performances and of course distance results are the keys for my picks. And, even if many of you will not agree with me, I never look at the odds before having made a clear idea about the racecard because in the past short odds prevented me from making some good payouts and big dogs attracted me too often (with small o no profit). I apologize for my english, I'll try to be as clear as possible. Usually I work on the races 5/6 (sometimes 7) days a week and I pick something out of quite every start but with these guidelines: - Only UK races (I need this to keep ratings equally weighted). - Only flat races (I know this would lower the racecard by 30-40% but jump meetings are absolutely less predictable than flat ones, at least for me). - No maiden races (If I had not ratings for at least 80% of listed horses I'll skip). For my backing selections I use BetDAQ so every odds price is taken from there. Staking plane: 1pt to Win / 3pts to Place [standard stake] 1pt to Win / 2pts to Place [standard stake for races with 10+ horses] 1pt to Win / 1pt to Place [Rarely used, only under particular circumstances] 0.5pts to Win / 1pt to Place [standard stake for non top selection] 0.25pts to Win / 0.50pts to Place [small stakes used for very high odds] 1pt ONLY to Place [Rarely Used, usually when I see a horse quite sure on the placement but with no real value/chances for the win] 0.5pts ONLY to Place [used for big dogs in 10/12 races] 0.25 ONLY to Place [used for very big dogs or big ones in 13+ races] Friday 04/05 selected meetings: MUSSELBURGH [First Race Start: 2.00 / Last Race start: 5.00] WOLVERHAMPTON [First Race Start: 2.10 / Last Race start: 5.40] CHEPSTOW [Abandoned / Waterlogging] See you tomorrow!
Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Thank you Red but in my opinion financial problems are overrated in handicapping football games. I saw too many times players without a salary since months badly beating healty clubs to overestimate that part of the game. First half of Ekranas was pretty good btw.