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FedericoBTH

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Posts posted by FedericoBTH

    Nap of the Day competition - Thursday 17th July 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day competition - Thursday 17th July 2014 2.45 HAMILTON (Class 6 - 6f Claiming Stakes) WAFFLE @4/5 (CORAL #BOG) This 8yo gelding is missing the win since 2008 but he's rated 93, 11lbs more than the second fav Fast Finian and he'll run only 2 pounds heavyer. He's a 6 furlong specialist usually put in class 2 contests with a couple of apps in Group races in 2011 and 2012 so today's one is a very big drop in class and he holds all the chance to win this race. Ability is there, maybe winning attitude is lacking but it's really hard finding another one at the same level here considering Fast Finian awful 2013 campaign (last of 11 in a C3 hcp at Yarmouth and only 7th in a C6 seller two weeks ago) or the little improvement Milly's Secret shown so far as a 3yo. David Barron and Graham Gibbons a solid enough pairing. 4/6 a much more realistic price.

    Nap of the Day Competition - Tuesday 15th July 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day Competition - Tuesday 15th July 2014 2.15 BATH (Class 6 - 1m3f½ Handicap) CAPTAIN OATS @9/4 (bet365 #BOG) Fascinating horse who broke his maiden tag at the age of 11 at the 34th time of asking just one month ago here at Bath. The most incredible part of his story looks like the fact he's experiencing the best form of his career right now, when usually flat horses are enjoying their time in their stables far from the stress of competitive racing. He's rated 60 and will act as topweight in this very weak race: his experience at the track (course and distance winner, along with 2nds in 4 apps here) should be a major plus today and he'll also enjoy the benefit of 3lbs less in the weights due to the fact he'll be ridden by Rosie Jessop, a very nice app lady rider with great skills and who loves today's conditions. At the price he's worth a try.

    Nap Of The Day Competition - Monday July 7th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Monday July 7th 6.50 WINDSOR (Class 6 - 1m2f Claiming Stakes) PERSHING @7/4 (bet365 #BOG) As the market suggests this could be a tricky race to assess but my preference goes to Pershing who has less question marks attached to his name if compared to his rivals. He's the only one with decent results over today's trip on turf (a 2nd in Class 5 and a 5th in Class 4) and the lonely gelding of the field, put in with a decent claiming price of £14,000. Looking at his recent efforts he could have had some issues lto and sardinian jockey P Sirigu (one of the most overrated younh jockeys in Italy a few years ago) is replaced by the very solid M Harley so I'm looking for a better performance today and probably a not so big step up is required to win this contest. Trainer Marco Botti won last year race with a similar horse and the yard got a very productive month of June. Not a sure thing but worth a try considering the price and the small and not exciting rest of the field.

    Nap Of The Day Competition - Saturday July 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Saturday July 5th 3.50 SANDOWN (Group 1 - 1m2f Coral-Eclipse British Champions Series) THE FUGUE @9/4 (bet365 #BOG) Well, I've checked and double checked the weather on three different websites and nothing more than a very light rain is forecasted for the afternoon. No more than 30 min ago the Post reporter confirmed the ground as good to firm at worst so it's really hard to understand why somebody is still reluctant on The Fugue under these circumstances. The filly is by far the best prospect of this field and after her effort in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Ascot I think the poor record of female runners in the race is too little to not back her. I reckon Night Of Thunder is the best opponent and probably also the value bet of the race (5/1 atm), plus he's for sure the one with the brightest future and the biggest scope but in terms of current value The Fugue is lenghts above him on paper, especially since she looks still improving. And if she'll be able to just confirm what we've seen in her last outing she'll win no matter what. I've backed her at 3/1 during the special offer (ended 15 min ago) but the current price is still a bargain. She's a 15/8 shot to win in my opinion.

    Nap Of The Day Competition - Wednesday July 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Wednesday July 2nd 5.00 CATTERICK (Class 6 - 7f Classified Stakes) CRAFTED @5/4 (bet365 #BOG) This 3yo gelding from Mark Johnston is getting really massive market support considering the low grade race he's entered in. After a late juvenile season all ran on the A.W. with mediocre results in maiden races the horse broke his tag in his handicap debut this year at Lingfield over a full mile (OR 56), then got a very promising 3rd on turf at Chester last week, only 1 lenght behind the winner Buredyma. Now he's rated 64 (imho still a little bit ahead of the handicapper) but today's race is a Classified one so he'll get no penalty, keeping all the chances to get a second career win. The good to firm ground should suit him best and if he'll maintain his last runs level it could be very hard to beat him despite a field of 12. Mark Johnston's 3yo always have to be respected, especially if dropped in class, and the trainer has a 23.6% strike rate at the track and a 19.1% one in Classified Stakes, along with a superb state of form (23 wins in the last 14 days) as usual in this part of the season. I also like the jockey switch from F Norton to J Fanning, since despite I rate the former better than the latter I really didn't like the ride Franny had lto on Crafted. Not a projected odds on fav probably but still some value at 5/4.

    BBOTD Friday 27th june

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Friday 27th june 7.55 CHESTER (Class 4 - 7f122yds Claiming Stakes) BRAE HILL @9/4 (BETFRED #BOG) This doesn't look an easy race to assess on paper because at least three or four in the field have legitimate claims but also weaknesses. My selection goes to the most experienced of the starting list, Brae Hill, an 8yo gelding double course winner and still effective as it's shown by his Spring Mile win at Doncaster last March along with a good third at York. The horse is a four timer Class 2 Hcp winner who reached an OR of 99 in his career and still competitive this spring after a less spectacular fall campaign. R A Fahey stable is rocking since late spring and probably they've entered the horse here to profit once more from this period before a well deserved summer break (this is Brae Hill 5th run in 3 months this season). Lto the gelding was entered in a 0-105 handicap during Royal Ascot meeting and his 22nd place more than 10L behind the winner could have misled a lil'bit the market because I really can't explain why the horse who holds the best combo of class and form out of this small field claiming race is still available at 9/4 in places, instead of being a decent 6/4 solid shot.

    BBOTD - Thursday 26th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Thursday 26th June 6.40 LEICESTER (Class 5 - 1m Handicap) ADORE @11/4 (BetVictor #BOG) Nice little handicap with the current second fav Adore receiving nice market support (was 7/2 early on the same bookie) but still available at a backable price. A 7 and a 6 on the yearly form are not promising but I think the 3yo filly can't be discarded for the win since she's back on a sounder turf course after two efforts on the AW and one over a much softer ground (which probably penalized her really a lot). Considering how lazily the Stoute's filly raced lto this could be the last time we'll see her racing in case of another flop but today she's back in a very good moment for the yard, dropped in class and 3lbs lighter than all of her previous handicap starts: add this to the fact that Ryan Moore is confirmed in the saddle and I can hardly believe that a so effective trainer like ser Michael has already given up on her. Still with room to improve considering this will be just her 7th start under rules, not saying she'll win for sure but should be at least in the frame.

    Rolling Back the Years Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Rolling Back the Years Thread Amazing video the second one. I hate so much the Ladbrokes ad with him and Tiziano Crudeli 'cause somehow put them at the same level. Trust me, Crudeli is considered a total clown in Italy (let alone not AC Milan fans) with no clue about football, whilst McCririck is a really fascinating character to me, always entertaining. Crudeli isn't even capable of speaking a decent English... "Game On! Let's broke!" lol

    BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June 2.40 SALISBURY (Class 5 - 6f Maiden Stakes) SUGAR LUMP @Evens (Bet365 #BOG) A lil'bit short in the market as I would price Sugar Lump around 6/5 but I found him at Evens on Bet365 atm and great chance he'll drift approaching the off providing some sort of value. On paper this 2yo colt is the first choice of Hannon's stable for this race and probably the one with the better form in the whole card: second at Nottingham over 6f two weeks ago, beaten by a very solid fav in Ustinov. Sugar Lump is a 70,000gns yearling and an improvement from that run is very likely judging the yard is coming from and with Richard Hughes taking the ride it's hard to not consider the whole package as a major plus over the rest of the field. Brazen Spirit looks a valuable opponent judging by his 4th two runs back but there are plenty of doubts about his capability to perform on testing finals, even if his lto here could be partially excused since the going was pretty slow and he clearly didn't enjoyed cheekpieces. Not a great selection, I reckon, but lately I'm struggling finding decent value bets.

    BBOTD > Tuesday June 24th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Tuesday June 24th 6.55 NEWBURY (Class 4 - 6f Maiden Stakes) SECRET SPIRIT @9/4 (Bet365 #BOG) 15 runners maiden with almost half of the field unraced and Secret Spirit holds the most convincing form figure of the others. Her 3rd place came here about 3 weeks ago on a much softer and testing ground, so even if the form of that race didn't work out since I still give her enough credit to deserve the nod here. That time jockey Ryan Tate (again onboard today even if 2lbs heavyer) had to drive her a bit 2f out before switching the filly inside to gave her a clear lane. She responded well and finished somehow progressing so I think she could have room to improve in her second run. The Tate - Cox connection usually works well striking at 15% with a +4% yield thanks to the apprentice underrated ability which I appreciate a lot. Probably the horse doesn't have a superb pedigree and is bred to compete at decent level over further, but as a £28,000 yearling in an average Class 4 maiden she's anyway worth a punt at this price. 2/1 is a more correct representation of her chances imho. Watch out for Dubai Breeze, who switched from J Fortune to Ryan Moore after a decent 6th in a stronger contest.

    BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June

    Nothing wrong with short priced selections Federico, in fact i would sooner see people select their real 'best bet of the day' but i know I'm not in the majority there. Sometimes takes more balls to put a shorty up, no one expects a rag to win and they go un-noticed when they lose yet get all the glory when they win, some don't understand the concept of value and think it needs to be 20/1. Still i suppose it would be boring if we were all the same eh! Good luck mate:hope
    Thanks BH, trying to keep up the glorious wizzkid walter tradition! :D

    BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOOTD - Monday 23rd June 7.20 THIRSK (Class 5 - 5f Maiden Stakes) ZAC BROWN @1/7 (Bet365 #BOG) This comp is called BBOTD and this is actually my Best Bet of the Day, in terms of chance of victory and expected value. Punters usually discard such horses without analyzing the race because they think there's no value in this price range. As a part-time football oddsmaker for a local I can easily say this is a just a fallacy. Favs with a SP smaller than 1/5 in Class 5 or below won 89.7% of their races in the last 10 years showing a profit on level stake, so you could blindly back all of them and not losing money despite the huge industry overround. Aidy says 'Never let a big price cloud your judgement' and the same applies to very short priced favs imo. That being said let's dig deep in the card: 5 runners race with the oldest one, Jiminy (OR 44), at his 17th career start with a 5th in a Class 6 Seller as his best results. Plus as a 4yo gelding he'll race with 11lbs extra. Parisian Melody should have the speediest pedigree on paper but she was only 12th on her debut over 5f and absolutely not impressive. That day came in April 2013 and she wasn't seen since. Escaping Midge has the same sire of Jiminy but should be better suited by longer distances. Anyway he got no results over 7f and 1m and it's hard to think she will be better today. Blaze It is the lonely one with no experience but has the worst pedigree of the quintet and was bought for just £800, anyway she came from the B Ellison stable and should be at least respected. Then comes my selection: Zac Brown is a son of Kodiac who progressed during 2013 season as a 2yo ending up with a very good 1/4 lenght 2nd at York in a Class 3 Maiden. With already 3 starts under his belt handicapper officialy rates him as a 86 colt and it's pretty easy to understand why I'm so confident on him considering the rest of the field. David Barron is a respectable trainer and Graham Gibbons (17% at the track in thelast 5 years) is by far the best jockey of this small field, plus he already paired with the horse in all of his 3 starts. Blaze It could be the gamble of the day but I've seen very little signs of market support so far and I reckon Parisian Melody as the main danger if she's improved since lto but this just doesn't look enough to not trust Zac Brown here. I know that many of you wouldn't back him below 2/5 but as I said, quoting a little 'The King' Aidymac, 'never let a short price cloud your judgement'.

    BBOTD > Friday June 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Friday June 20th 4.45 REDCAR (Class 6 - 1m2f Claiming Stakes) AQUA ARDENS @9/4 (Bet365 #BOG) Probably a 9/4 chance for Aqua Ardens here is almost a no value pick but I rate him as an interesting selection for several reasons. First he's a 6yo miler who probably just passed the peak of his career: a Class 6 and 5 winner with several placings in Class 4 and a career high mark of 76. Now handicapper rates him at 74 and I found really intriguing this little gamble by George Baker who entered him in a low level Claiming race over the new distance of 1m2f. Trainer stable is printing winner lately with a 32% SR in the last 14 days and even if the horse is unproven over 10f it might be worth the price to give him some trust considering his yard's momentum. Form is here and horse is still at a very decent point of his career for a Class 6 Claiming race so he holds some chances. Curious to see how market will set the prices at the off.

    FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary #20 4.45 REDCAR (Class 6 - 1m2f Claiming Stakes) AQUA ARDENS @9/4 (Bet365 #BOG) Probably a 9/4 chance for Aqua Ardens here is almost a no value pick but I rate him as an interesting selection for several reasons. First he's a 6yo miler who probably just passed the peak of his career: a Class 6 and 5 winner with several placings in Class 4 and a career high mark of 76. Now handicapper rates him at 74 and I found really intriguing this little gamble by George Baker who entered him in a low level Claiming race over the new distance of 1m2f. Trainer stable is printing winner lately with a 32% SR in the last 14 days and even if the horse is unproven over 10f it might be worth the price to give him some trust considering his yard's momentum. Form is here and horse is still at a very decent point of his career for a Class 6 Claiming race so he holds some chances. Curios to see how market will set the prices at the off.

    FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: FBTH 2014 Flat Racing Diary Closing with Southwell selections for today. #18 4.45 SOUTHWELL (Class 5 - 7f Handicap) WILDCAT LASS @4/1 (BetVictor #BOG) Course winner and plenty of experience at the track. AW specialist, 7f should suit her better than the full mile tried last time out (positive result anyway). David O'Meara is producing a lot of winners lately, has to be respected and taken in account for a joint-fav position in this card. #19 5.20 SOUTHWELL (Class 6 - 6f Handicap) HOT AMBER @20/1 (BetVictor #BOG) Typical big-priced US horse @Southwell and everybody is putting a tenner on her. No reason to think she'll be able to win but price is too big considering she'll be 5lbs lighter than lto on the AW. Debut on the fibresand a big 'if', just a try to satisfy my 'mug pleasure'.

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