stho1978
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Posts posted by stho1978
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Hi - what's the best sites these days for 6 seat sit n go's micro to mini stakes? I've tried Party Poker and America's Card room, but the sit n go's don't have that many players in the sit n go's (you can be waiting for a good half hour before you've got enough people registered to play) and are pretty much turbo's or hypers. I'm just looking for a site that has a decent supply of sit n go tables that aren't just turbo's.
Also, anyone have any experience of signing up to poker rooms attached to bookies that they've been limited at? EG 888 - I'm banned from their sports site (well I can get on the site but can't place any bets for taking too much value etc) but could I sign up to their poker site?
Edit - talking about NL Hold 'Em
Thanks
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Ahhhh - course you do. That makes total sense. I knew how to work out the "and" (multiply them) but couldn't figure out the "or". Which of course is as simple as adding them. The answer's right there really given a sports book is made up of all the probabilities (perfect book - Betfair - 100%).
Thanks both of you.
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Hi
Thanks. I know that though (how to convert decimal odds to probability). I'm looking for the odds of one of several outcomes happening. EG the score to be either 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. What are the odds of the correct score being one of those scores?
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Hi,
I'm trying to work out the probability, and therefore the odds, of one of a selection occurring (A or B) - so they can't both happen. EG given I know the odds of each correct score happening, how do I find the following:
the score to be, either:
1-0. 1-1. 2-1 or 2-2?
1-0 = 7.0 (decimal odds),
1-1 = 7.5,
2-1 = 8
2-2 = 17
Thanks
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Hi,
Been looking at a few systems (out of interest rather than thinking they'll work) and quite a few suggest looking at past 5 matches to look for potential bets. As an example, O 2.5 goals. Look at home teams last 5 home matches in the same competition they're playing in next weekend, if they've scored more than 2.5 in 4 of last 5, do likewise for the away team etc etc etc - not asking for comments on the system as it's one I've made up as an example.
The whole "last 5 matches" thing really annoys me though. Surely it's no where near enough of a sample - you need to look at the quality of the teams they've played in the last 5 matches for starters.
Is there any merit of looking at only the last 5 matches (or 5 samples of anything in any walks of life), whether it's football, stocks and shares etc etc?
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Cheers Wayne - I plan on doing something like that anyway. I'm just trying to grasp the knock on effects for the other teams in the tournament (how it effects their potential profit).
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Can't decide where to post this, but this seems as good as any.
On the world cup outright, I'm in profit no matter what:
Brazil £165
Belgium £155
Japan £500
Sweden £200
Switz £280
Colombia £90
England £335
Uruguay £142
France £205
Russia £280
Croatia £75
This will be pure profit (after liabilities) through real monies and free bets spread across several bookies.
Ideally I want to try and get it so I make around £200. Is it feesable to "borrow" future winnings to back one of the other teams to boost potential winnings? Eg backing Colombia for £10 from England's £335 at around 15.00. Of course that means England potential winnings goes down by £10, but what about the rest of the teams in the tournament? Do I just increase my liabilities by £10 or not worry as I've borrowed it off England's potential winnings? I just can't get my head around it. If it was just on the exchange and greened up, then I wouldn't have a problem. It's just because it's spread across several sites.
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How reliable are in play stats? I know there is software out there that can show you when a team has more shots, possession etc. but I was just wondering if anyone who bets in play uses stats or other guides (doesn't matter if you use specific software). I'm asking as I'm a great believer in that a period of unusual activity is followed by a period of less unusual activity. So, for example, Chelsea v QPR. In the first 10 mins QPR have had 10 shots, 75% possession and 8 corners but it's still 0-0 (completely made up figures). Now I wouldn't necessarily suggest backing QPR in play as I would presume that this was a slight blip on Chelsea's part and that things would return to a more normal pattern (or what you would expect to be normal in this type of game).So, therefore, the in play stats are pretty meaningless? You're basing your bet on a small sample rather than looking at the bigger picture, or would any of you in play bettors have a punt on QPR based on these stats?
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Xanadu or Mr Blue Sky? I'd go with Xanadu to be honest. Steve
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Hi - already got a Stocks and Share ISA and have some more money to invest. Was speaking to one of the management in my the bank the other day and he was telling me about a strategy he uses for his investments (it wasn't financial advice as he's not paid to do that). Basically, he would see how much his shares were worth and compare them to what they were previously. If they were at a high, he would reduce the monthly amount he would invest. If they were low, he would increase them or make a lump sum payment. Pretty standard and simple stuff (why I never thought of that I don't know!). Looking at my shares now they are the highest they've been since I opened the account 5 years ago. Was wondering though if it's worth waiting that bit longer or cutting my monthly investment now and reviewing in the next 2 to 3 months. I'm not looking for financial advice as such - was just wondering what everyone else's opinion is and if anyone else uses this strategy (PS sorry that this is one paragraph - for some unknown reason, the web the forum won't let me use my enter key....) Thanks
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Re: Maths Question - Goals Yeah I know but just checking my workings rather than the sample. I can use it on larger samples if needed. Thanks for the feedback though.
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Re: Maths Question - Goals Thank you very much. Just what I thought and a very simple question that most teenagers could answer but wanted to make sure I was right. I know it's a small sample but I just wanted to make sure my workings were correct.
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Re: Maths Question - Goals Ahhhhh it's not working! Anyway, hope you get the general idea.
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Re: Maths Question - Goals I've tried to edit this post, without success, so it reads like this (more spread out): Matches 0 goals 1 goal 2 goals 3 goals 4 goals over 5 goals 32 1 match 6 matches 8 matches 8 matches 3 matches 6 matches
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Need someone to confirm the following (it’s simple GCSE question and think I know but want someone to double check!!!!) If over 32 football matches the goal distribution is as follows: Total number of goals: Matches 0 goals 1 goal 2 goals 3 goals 4 goals over 5 goals 32 1 match 6 matches 8 matches 8 matches 3 matches 6 matches So in 1 match out of the 32 there were no goals scored, in 6 matches out of the 32 1 goal was scored, in 8 matches out of the 32 2 goals were scored etc. Therefore in % terms: 0 goals 1 goal 2 goal 3 goal 4 goal Over 5 goal 3.13% 18.75% 25% 25% 9.38% 18.75% What is the likely hood of a match having over 0 goals, over 1 goal etc? Now if there is a 25% chance of there being 3 goals exactly then there must be a 75% of there not being 3 goals. But I want to know what’s the likelihood of there being more than 3 goals. (I make it around 28.125%)
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Re: Systems and backing at true value One thing that people want to remember is that finding value is one thing but finding winners is something different. If you think Man U should be odds of around 1.2 at home to Liverpool but you can get odds of of around evens, coupled with the fact Liverpool have been poor away from home, Vidic returning from injury blah blah blah then you'd want to consider a small wager on the Mancs perhaps (depending on how you feel about the info in Liscarroll's first post). If you think a three legged donkey "running" at Nottingham should be around 100/1 but you can get odds of 150/1 then maybe save your well earned dosh and don't bet?
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Re: Money management on sports betting ? Think Jase is right - you need to ask yourself what your long term goal is,including how quickly you want to get there, what odds you're going to get and then stake accordingly but never betting more than you can afford to lose. Also having a limit on what you can lose in the long run. But that's me being boring! So ignoring that fact and wanting to have some excitment, I have a question: Say I have a betting bank of a thousand points, and I'm going to risk 2% (20 points) per bet and I am going to use an incremental system(EG for a bet of odds of 1.01 I'd bet 20 points but a bet of 10.00 I'd bet 1 point) as per iparout's post. Should I look at how many bets I'm going to have over, say, a weekend and spread my 2% over all of them or treat each bet individually? EG This weekend I'm going to bet on 10 football matches. Should I say right 2% of my betting bank (20 points) is going to be spread out over the 10 matches on a incremental system. So at the end of the weekend if no bets have been won my new back would be 980 points. or stake a maximum of 2%(20 points) on each match (so possible 200 hundred points depending on the odds) and each bet would be incremental.
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Re: The motivation of a team Don't think there will be a website explaining how to calculate motivation unfortunately and doubt many people will know how to (although someone with a specialism in Sports Psychology might have an idea). What you could do, depending on time, is look back over past seasons for games where one, or both, teams have something to play for (eg end of season title decider) or local derbies. You could then somehow rate that against previous performances where there is nothing to play for etc and see if you can come up with some sort of magic number. Would be difficult though I would think but good luck.
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Re: Mixture Betting - Starting with £200 - What is your current staking Nuno?
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Re: Just how important is teams news, injuries, suspensions etc.?
Think Jase summed it up when he said you probably have to be more wary the further down the leagues you go. Plus it maybe a case that Barnsley were playing to Vaz's strengths and had built a team around him. When he went they couldn't adapt to a new style of play even though his replacement wasn't that far behind him in the abilities department - I don't know as I'm not a Barnsley fan. I still think that no one standard player for a particular division - even if he's the star player for that team - makes a team. Most teams will have a pretty good bench (unless there are injuries all over the squad) in relation to their first 11. So a squad player next in line should be almost as good as the player just in front of him. I suppose what can happen though is that a team gets a player that is miles above their standard (or their position in the table) and when he leaves / gets injured the team go back to the level they should be at. Even though he'd have to be something special to carry a whole team. In the example by marcdude, if Messi, Xavi and Iniesta went to Linfield, they wouldn't obviously get to the champions league final. However, they would make a difference to Linfield's style of play and I should imagine they'd win them one or two league games due to the fact they are miles better than anything else in Linfield's league! - obviously ignoring the fact that the pitches would be completely different to what they're used to playing on etc. When they left, Linfield would revert to their normal standard. However, although players like Steven Gerrard are very good players he's not miles above the rest of Liverpool players or even the rest of the Premier League like Xvai et al would be for Linfield. It would be interested to see if anyone can come up with a way of working out a figure to factor in when calculating odds and probability for when players are missing.At that point with 28 games gone,the Tykes were 13th in the table and just six points off the play - off places.After January 31,however,when top scorer Ricardo Vaz Te went to West Ham,Keith Hill's side got only eight more goals,averaging just 0.44 goals a game and took only nine more points. So here we have a prime example of player missed massively by the team. I think the secret must be in deciding how important the missing player is to the team and using that along with the many other factors when deciding when to bet. Hopefully I can come back to this at the end of the season with how well I thought it went factoring team news. -
Re: Just how important is teams news, injuries, suspensions etc.?
That youth Kevin Pullein gets everywhere! I've recently started a thread about him and his book! The example you've quoted is spot on. The example he gives is that for 5 seasons Liverpool won 58% of the games Gerrard played in and 56% of the games he didn't. He goes on to say that people have a tendancy to overreact rather than under react (not just on team news and selections) and I think he is right. Another example being if Leyton Orient's star right back was injured most people wouldn't batter an eye lid and change their thoughts on the match outcome based on this. When people like Stevie G (high profile name in a high profile team) are out then people overreact to the news. I personally think that there is even more of an overreaction when a player is coming back from injury. People think a team will improve dramatically when in reallty there will be little or no improvement. Although when a player does return this can sometimes have a positive boost on fans and players alike and the players may raise their game because of this. In the long run though the team is pretty much the same team - even with their star player back and the results shouldn't really differ a great deal. Anyway my own take on it is that team news, and one or two players missing or even coming back from injury, is probably not as important as most people make out (I do agree with the goal keeping line though as per yourself and Jase). One thing I think you may need to note though is, probably not the players missing, but the style a team plays. For example if a team is very one dimensional, with a one dimensional manager, especially in the lower leagues, they may base their tactics around their star player. They may train week in and week out and select the team and hone their tactics based on their 7 foot, built like a brick s**t house centre forward who has scored 15 goals so far half way through the season. If he then gets injured and his replacement is almost as good in ability / skill terms but is a 3 foot tall wirey peruvian under 21 international the team may not be able to adapt their style to suit. They may continue to pump long balls up to him, as that's the only style they know, but because of the replacement centre forwards style of play and physical atributes, it does not work out. You'd hope that, especially if you were a fan of that particular team, the manager would eventually realise that he was flogging a dead horse and try and change the style accordingly. I'm not sure how important this is in the long run - I've got no figures to back it up - and I'm coming from this as a football fan rather than a gambling view point. I would think that it's probably not too important and can largly be ignored as a manager or players at any pro or semi-pro team should be able to adapt well enough with their star players missing or even adapt after a few games. It maybe worth keeping an eye on though.I remember reading a book about gambling on football and the author (i think it was Kevin Pullein) was giving the argument that it isnt all that important. He showed you some statistics from one of Liverpool's seasons in the Premier League where Gerrard was missing for a chunk of it. He compared the matches Gerrard played with the matches that he never and the difference as far as games won was very small from what i remember. -
Re: Holiday Fund Well done on betting on the mighty Outlaws!
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Re: One team strategy One of the things you probably need to look out for when choosing teams to bet on and follow are teams where results differ from what people (not just bookmakers but other punters) expect them be - you need to find are the teams that do unexpectedly well (or bad) compared to other people's expectations. Pretty obvious stuff really I suppose and also easier said then done!
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Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I'm always a bit wary of looking at previous head 2 heads in tournements (especially as they can span 16 + years - England were pretty decent in 96 and 98!!!). Anyway Germany have kept something like 1 clean sheet in 9 matches and with Panbet (I know some people on here don't like Panbet) offering 13/20 for Italy to score in 90 minutes it maybe worth considering putting some money on that? Note - I had a whopping £1.88 in my Panbet account so I stuck it all on Italy to score. Oooooo I'll be on the edge of my seat to see if I can get my £1.22 profit!
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Thanks fish. Sit n go's don't seem to be as popular as they once were.
Do you mainly play cash games or mtts?
Also do you know if you can sign up to a poker site linked to a bookie you've been stake restricted with on the sports side?