stho1978
-
Posts
100 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by stho1978
-
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I'm not saying lay popular teams - I'm just saying that the market doesn't always react as you think it would do based on what you think the actual odds should be. EG you think the odds for a particular team should be 1/2 but the book makers have it as evens you haven't always got to rush out and bet as soon as bookmakers price the event up due to you worrying that everyone else has the same idea on what the odds should be. Simmo summed it up when he said that you don't have to be more accurate than the millions of punters (although I think he / she could have been a bit kinder than saying you were so wrong it was laughable).
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I am sure there are probably people out there that over exaggerate when it comes to how well they do with their betting. However, I am also sure that some people do quite well out of it. There is no point arguing as we will never know which people are which on here and there's no point eyeing everyone with suspicion just because they say they make money / living / decent profit out of betting. People are always going to be sceptical if they have tried and failed at betting or think that it's too hard etc. But I think we should remember that just because we've not seen it it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Maybe best to just listen to the interesting discussions and try to pick up useful information. As for some of the other points re value, getting bets on early etc - a lot of the betting is done by people who do not know about or are interested in value. Therefore you don't neseccarly have to find value (or whatever) that other gamblers haven't found because chances are other gamblers won't have noticed the value or even have the slightest interest in such value. Betting markets seem to overreact as in the example above about Liverpool. Just because it was Liverpool people, without looking into it or considering what a decent bet would be, backed them for top 4 finish. Finally I was reading an artical in the RFO (I think it was). They carried out a survey of 600 punters - 90 odd % of them would bet based on emotion at Euro 2012 which goes someway to highlight the fact you don't neseccarly have to an edge over fellow punters to allow you to get the odds you want / need.
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Don't get me wrong I agree with what you're saying. It does mean a lot. It's just that I think some people think they are going to make thousands overnight when in fact the profits can be quite small.
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Hey -look at that. I managed to reply with a quote!
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
What's that then?The other way is a lot better...... -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I've often thought that one of the things that would stop someone taking their betting more seriously is that you don't actually make that much money on most bets! Whether it is finding value (there's a difference between finding value and finding winners or so I am told) or some sort of trading on betting exchanges. During a football match if you can make £20 on Betfair or whatever then great...but that's £20 for about 2 hours work....most peeps probably earn that anyway.
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Are you going to elaborate old chap?
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Another point that I think Machine has sort of covered is that a lot of people, seasoned or green, just don't want to spend the time (countless hours) doing the sort of research that is needed. Same with someone setting up a business - people would love to work for themselves but it is so much hard work and uncertainty that the vast majority of us haven't got the patient or mentality to do it and deep down would rather stay working for someone else (it maybe boring but it's easy in some degree as you know what you're doing). But not me.....I'm gonna be a billionaire from betting one day......just you wait and see....
-
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. "Think about it.If somebody had an edge on the market why would they be willing to share it with the public.Anybody with a legitimate profitable edge will never share it with anybody else." (Sorry - don't know how to quote only part of the message) Bang on. Why would anyone with a system that makes money want to sell it? Just use it and make money yourself out of it!Same with such tools as Bet Angel (no offence to Bet Angel's owbers / developers - it's probably just my ignorance). One thing I do like about betting though is the statistics behind it - not for making money but just because I find it interesting. I used to love reading old cricket score cards and averages. Strange or what......
-
Re: Experiences with following tipsters? I've never paid for a tip but I think the main point is that with a computer program designed by yourself, or you doing your own research, you know exactly when you're going to get the tip and you are the only person who gets the tip. The problem that you may get with good reliable Tipsters is the fact that they will most likely have a large following (which may effect the price of the bet etc) and the timing of when they give their tips out. But you've probably gathered that. Anyway good luck! Let me know how you get on.
-
Re: Opening Prices Cheers - I thought it was around half an hour. Thanks for the reply.
-
When do the opening (show) prices become available from the racecourse on such sites as Sporting Life? They've got the Tote prices up for the 1:30 at York today but no fixed odds.
-
Re: Swansea v Newcastle > 6 April Very good point about Newcastle having more to play for. However, I think the draw looks like the most likely result (whether the standard 5/2 is good value I don't know although I think it should be slightly shorter than that). Both Newcastle and Swansea are ranked about the same in the form tables (Swansea 15th on home form and Newcastle 14th on away form) over the last 10 games. Although Newcastle have won three on the trot they have been against average teams - West Brom at home (Baggies home form is pretty poor) and wins against Norwich and Liverpool at St James' Park (Liverpool are a very average team ;) ). Swansea's home form is mixed since end of Jan (lost 3 drawn 4 and won 3 against a mixture of teams) and Newcastle's results aren't too much better away from home (won 3 (see below) and lost 6). Admittedly Newcastle's away form against teams ranked at the lower half of the form table is good (wins against Bolton,Blackburn and West Brom) so if you don't fancy the draw then I think that Newcastle at anything above 11/5 is probably good value.
-
Re: Blackburn v Man Utd > April 2 Both teams playing for something. High stakes. Looking at the away form of Man Utd and home form of Blackburn there has only been 2 draws between them. Lay the draw.
-
Re: Chelsea Manager
terry and cashley hardly helped him did they' date=' [/quote'] Players have too much power. Anyway that's a different discussion. -
Re: Chelsea Manager Thanks staffy. I see that JT not on there. Don't know where BBC go their info from then. What are the 3 columns? Different bookmakers?
-
Not sure where this thread should go so obviously feel free to move it, tel me off or ban me. Just been on BBC that John Terry 20/1 to be next permanent Chelsea manager. Surely not? Those odds are way too short.
-
Re: Back end of season unders system Do you mean under 1.5 goals? Good luck btw. Steve
-
Re: Teams: End your 2 game draw streak.............Please
Good point but in football it is slightly different. It's not as simple as50/50 (or 33.333, 33.333, 33.333 = Home win, away win and draw). Surely, asthere are other factors rather than the spin of a wheel (EG how good a team is,opponents, away records, home records) if a gambler was to be more specific inwhich games to lay the draw (two game drawing streak plus considering otherfootball factors) it makes it a more wiser choice rather than if it is astraight coin toss. The previous run doesn't necessarily influence theprobability of the next outcome, but the actual football teams dowhilst in games like Roulette there is no influence as such.But I still have reservations regarding the logic....... even after a run of 15Reds on Roulette, the chances of the next outcome remains 50/50. OK.... infootball there are three possible outcomes, but you know what I mean -basically the previous results do not influence the probability of the nextoutcome. I appreciate that you are being more selective with your choice ofleagues etc.
One team strategy
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: One team strategy You've sort of said that some games (if following one team) you won't know what to bet on. I would suggest that in those games you don't bet on anything. Obviously if following one team per league this will mean that you will have weeks were you've not placed any bets. Don't bet just for the sake of it - you proabably know that anyway. You won't win anything in those weeks but at least you won't lose any money either! Good luck anyway mate. Let me know how you get on.