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Sputnik

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    Germany - Bundesliga II - 25-28 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 25-28 November FSV-Paderborn I think the odds on Paderborn have good value. @ 2.5 Betvictor / 2.49 Pinnacle (AH0 @ 1.79 Pinnacle) When Düsseldorf played at FSV a couple of weeks ago the odds were around 1.9-2.0 before kick-off, but Paderborn's away record is better than Düsseldorf's. Away: 5-2-1 / 12:6 goals, second best away team. Paderborn haven't lost in the league for over three months now, they've won 7 of the last 8 games. Won 3 of the last 4 away games (lost only one away game and that's nearly four months ago). LB Bertels is suspended. FSV with 12 points from 15 games, 4 defeats in the last 5 games, worst home team (0-5-3 / 5:13 goals). I think Benny already wrote something about the weird atmosphere at their home ground. CB Gledson is suspended. H2H absolutely doesn't look good for Paderborn but they were already able to beat some opponents this season they usually struggle against, like Duisburg or Aue. I find them very convincing, they might not have the individual class of a team like Düsseldorf but they show a high tactical maturity, they have a plan and the ability to stick to it.

    Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November Bochum to win sounds good, I add: Bochum to keep a clean sheet @ 2.62 Ladbrokes (small) Totti already wrote something about Cottbus' problems. Probable starting line-up: Kirschbaum - Schorch, Hünemeier, Roger, Engel - Reimerink, Banovic, Kruska, Adlung - Kronaveter, Müller. That basically means they have to play without a real striker. Those ten field players played 10,2 (avg.) of the 14 games so far and scored only 6 goals. It's not as if they're completely harmless, Kronaveter for example scored in the last two away games vs Rostock & FSV. But he's normally more like a central midfielder with only 3 goals in 21 games for Cottbus. Müller is an attacking midfielder who might play up front because he scored 2 goals against Wolfsburg in a test match 2 weeks ago. But in 61 appearances in the 1. and 2. BL he only scored 4 times. They just don't have a real goal getter. Bochum obviously recovered after they sacked Funkel, 4 wins in the last 6 games. And, more important for this bet, conceded 1 goal in the last 3 games (at 1860). At home they really struggled against Fürth, Paderborn, St. Pauli and E.Frankfurt but those are the top teams of the league (Funkel's home record was a bit misleading as he faced those teams very early) and on a level that Cottbus won't reach tonight. And Maltritz (CB) returning into the team should add further stability.

    Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 18-21 November Ingolstadt - 1860: Ingolstadt DNB @ 2.0 William Hill 1860 lost four of the last six games, away record 2-0-5 / 12:14 goals.The 1-1 against Paderborn at home and the 3-0 against Duisburg on the road can't cover their weak points, especially the score against Duisburg is misleading as even 1860 supporters admit that the GK was their best man on pitch (and it's Duisburg, maybe the greatest negative surprise of the season). Point is that I don't see a trend of recovering, there's great disappointment among the supporters, the manager seems to be just one game away from being sacked and the conflicts between the investor and the president of the club escalated just this week. 1860 started into the season at least with the vision of competing for the promotion but now they're already 11 points behind 3rd placed Fürth and I think they're missing orientation in their mid-table existence (players and officials). While 1860 might sack their manager sooner or later and are arguing with their owner, Ingolstadt just engaged a new manager (first game today) and were told this week that Audi (main sponsor) wants to put much more money into the club and take them to the top flight until 2014. So it's as if Ingolstadt was in a similar situation as 1860 two weeks ago but they have made some decisions and should have the moral advantage on their side. And they really were in need of some changes and better news. They haven't won in the last 6 games (5 defeats) and are at the bottom of the table with only 9 points from 14 games. But at home they were pretty much competitive, lost only once, 2-3-1 / 12:10 goals. And if you take a closer look at their negative series, there were only two home games, one against E.Frankfurt (1-1) and one against Bochum, 3-5, Ingolstadt were up 3-1 until 60th minute - Ingolstadt's only home defeat came in the last 5 minutes of that game. I think the new manager has some good conditions today. It's a small derby and a 'new start' (means: good support), 1860's short upwards trend was stopped by Bochum and the own club officials (resp. has never taken place in my eyes) and Ingolstadt have already proven their competitiveness at home, so in combination with the typical 'new manager effect' I think this could be another defeat for 1860 (who even managed to give Rostock their only win of the season, still can't forget that game...).

    International Friendlies > 2011

    in Other International Predictions

    Posted

    Re: International Friendlies > November Ukraine - Austria = Austria +0,75 @ 2.14 Ladbrokes Ukraine did well against Germany (3:3) but are overrated here imo. Germany made experiments with their whole tactical order (3-5-2) and were therefore quite unorganised when they gave away a lot of counter attacks. This shouldn't happen tonight because Ukraine will have to dictate the game and can't play that rather passive role. Germany were the perfect opponent for Ukraine to test compact defending and counter attacking, Austria are the perfect opponent to test their ability to make the running while having more possession. So the question for me is: Do they have this ability to a degree that is enough to be such strong favourites against Austria? I don't think so. Austria were not good enough to make it to the play-offs in a group with Germany, Turkey and Belgium but they have a very interesting squad with some great prospects like Bayern's Alaba or Werder's Arnautovic and more experienced players like Pogatetz, Ivanschitz or Janko. In my eyes they had huge problems to live up to their abilities under former coach Constantini (I think one of his nick names was "horny ski instructor", that really tells the whole story). Now it's a new situation, with Koller they have a modern swiss perfectionist in charge for two months now. This will be his first game and the whole team has to prove a point. So it's not only a friendly or a test match, for the Austrians it's the chance (or the need) for a new start. Ukraine still have a lot of trouble with injuries and I can't see them building up a pressure that Austria are not able to cope with. Wouldn't be surprised if Austria will do to them what they did to Germany. Germany - Netherlands = Germany @ 1.91 Ladbrokes The situation is that Afellay, Robben, van Persie, van der Vaart and - from what I've just read - Sneijder are not available for this game. I guess they will field Wijnaldum, Kuyt, Babel and Huntelaar, still a strong team but on a different level. Normally this is a real classic as both countries are each other's arch rivals in football. But tonight I expect the Dutch to play rather defensive-minded and pretty aggressive. They only got a 0-0 against Switzerland and the Dutch supporters absolutely didn't like it, tonight it's about damage containment. For Germany it's about the opposite. With the Netherlands and France (in February) they have strong opponents in their next two friendlies, won't make any experiments and will field the strongest possible team (afaik only Schweinsteiger ain't available). For this matchup - at home against a strongly weakened Dutch team - they are clear favourites in my eyes.

    International Friendlies > 2011

    in Other International Predictions

    Posted

    Re: International Friendlies > November Ukraine-Germany Over 3,5 @ 3.0 William Hill Probable German line-up: Wiese - Höwedes, Boateng, Hummels, Schmelzer - Khedira - Schürrle, Götze, Podolski - Özil - Gomez Löw said he wants to play with Götze and Özil, that obviously means Götze will play behind/next to Özil and Khedira will be the only defensive-minded player in midfield. Löw already made experiments in a 4-1-4-1 with Schweinsteiger and Kroos, but Kroos' defensive qualities are better than Götze's and Kroos already played that role between offense and defense with Schweinsteiger at Bayern. So, if Löw wants to play with Götze and Özil (as he told the press) it will probably be the most offensive line-up of a German national team I can remember. And the defense? Well, I can guarantee that these back four have never played together and are rather inexperienced on the international stage. Boateng 17 caps (most as L/RB) Hummels 10, Höwedes 5, Schmelzer 5. And I rate especially Boateng and Hummels very high but in international games (NT/CL) they showed a lot of greenness. The reason why I concentrante so much on Germany and not on Ukraine is that it recently didn't matter who the opponent was, it was always the same: a flood of goals. Ukraine will - like Germany - miss some key players, I know, but I don't think that will have a negative influence regarding this bet. In Germany's last five games (incl. friendlies) we had an average of 5,0 goals, all five over 3,5 goals (no Malta, San Marino etc.). If Germany play like this they can score 4 goals on their own, Gomez and Podolski are two of the most in-form strikers across Europe at the moment, Schürrle has a 5-in-10 record for Germany, Götze is a joy to watch and the last time Özil had some problems at Madrid he pulled a hattrick against Austria. At the same time they're vulnerable especially when they make defensive experiments, conceded two vs Poland, Australia and Denmark in friendlies. I mean, this would really be a super-offensive line-up with an inexperienced defensive row that has never played together. And Khedira, who is an Indian at Madrid and not a Chief, is responsible for the tactical order. Small stakes for me.

    Germany - Bundesliga - 4-6 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 4-6 November Hertha-Gladbach: Under 2,5 @ 1.9 Pinnacle Hertha 3 unders in 5 home games. Gladbach 5 unders in 5 away games (5x 1-0 or 0-1 - including 10/11 they registered 10 consecutive unders on the road). Focus lies here on Gladbach's compact style of play and on Hertha's inability to break through a compact defense. Gladbach's manager Favre is well known for his good organisation and when he took over earlier this year it had an instant impact on the defense. At home Gladbach meanwhile has the ability to dictate a game and usually take way more shots than the opponent. But away from home they are still very defensive-minded, make it hard for the opponent to break through and wait for counter attacks. Therefore they conceded only 3 goals in 5 away games; at the same time they have huge problems to benefit from their counter attacks, they took 19 shots on goal in 5 games and scored only twice. Promoted team Hertha reintegrated very well into the top flight, earned 16 points in 11 games and caused a little sensation by winning at Dortmund. They have some good players like Ramos, Rafael or Lasogga and Markus Babel seems to be the right man in charge. But they don't have what it takes to dictate a game against a team like Gladbach and be a real offensive threat. It becomes more obvious when you look at their home opponent's stats. 3-0 vs Cologne (concede 3,4 goals on the road) 2-2 vs Augsburg (1,8) 0-1 vs Nürnberg (1,7) 0-0 vs Mainz (1,6) 1-0 vs Stuttgart (1,3) The only way this game should go over 2,5 goals is that Gladbach improve their mentality in front of the goal or Hertha benefit more than usual from set pieces.

    Germany - Bundesliga II - 4-7 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 4-7 November Hm, I think over 2,5 is the not the right choice. I mean, you get a simple win @ 1.45. If one thinks there will be a couple of goals tonight, over 3,5 @ 2.62 William Hill could be interesting. I'll be on Bet3000's 2.20 for a HC win considering that this could be Düsseldorf's 11th consecutive home win with at least a 2 goal margin. But then again Dresden did pretty well in the last weeks, won 3 of the last 4 games. We shouldn't overrate the 5-1 vs Karlsruhe, but it was a symbol. Last week Dresden played vs Dortmund in the Cup away from home, thousands of Dresden supporters travelled to Dortmund, devastated the stadium and the city, attacked policemen and normal people. The club had to face huge criticism because they've already had this image and now it has become even worse, sponsoring partners are becoming reluctant, the German FA announced to build a task force, and so on. And what did the team do four days later? They smashed Karlsruhe 5-1. Just saying, this team got character. But character is in my eyes not enough to compete with Düsseldorf, especially not in Düsseldorf. Fortuna's captain Lambertz will be back tonight who is not only important for goals and assists but for the entire tactical order. I think the first half vs FSV last week proved that. Düsseldorf has the ability to win games (with a high margin) even if they have a day off, that's why they are a real top team on this level.

    Germany - Bundesliga - 4-6 November

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 4-6 November Mainz had three key players last season and lost them all. So the team or at least its potential has changed much. But one shouldn't underestimate them. Yes, they won only once at home this season. But in six home games they played vs Dortmund, Schalke, Werder, Leverkusen, Hoffenheim, Augsburg. That's tough. They should've at least won vs Augsburg but gave away a penalty in the 88th minute. Dortmund shot the winner in the 90th minute. Schalke was 0-2 down at HT. Werder won 3-1 but was not the superior team (imho). So there's still a fire burning and today it's gonna be a (smaller) south west derby, Friday night, floodlight... Stuttgart AH0 @ 2.08, as 'sportxtipster' proposed, or Stuttgart +0,25 @ 1.74 seem good options to me.

    UEFA Europa League > 3rd November

    in Europa League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Europa League > 3rd November Copenhagen-Hannover: Hannover AH0 @ 1.88 Bet365 The game two weeks ago in Hannover ended 2-2. Hannover was the superior team but gave their lead carelessly away in the 89th minute, maybe they already focussed on the game vs Bayern three days later. Copenhagen took two shots on goal and scored twice. In the Bundesliga Hannover recently had ups and downs like losing vs Cologne and one week later winning vs Bayern. But in the EL they still haven't been defeated in 5 games vs Sevilla (Qual.), Standard Liege etc. One and a half years ago Hannover was one of the weakest teams in the Bundesliga and nobody expected them to reach the EL. But they're one of those fine examples for 'concept football' and made some good decisions on the transfer market. And now, one and a half years later, they keep winning vs Sevilla, Dortmund, Bayern or Werder. Copenhagen's team has changed much after they reached the round of the last 16 in the CL. Three players went to Germany, one to Italy. Their highly rated manager Solbakken is now in charge at Cologne. They're still dominating the domestic league but struggling on the international stage. It all started against Plzen in the CL qualification when they lost twice. That was a shock for the club and I think they still haven't fully recovered from that. In the EL they showed a poor display vs Poltava but won (1-0) and lost vs St. Liege away from home (0-3). In the domestic league they've won 2 of the last 5 games. We might see the same line-ups as two weeks ago, except for Hannover's Cherundolo and Copenhagen's Delaney. Having watched the game two weeks ago and considering the actual strength of both squads I think Hannover is the (slight) favorite to win this game and shouldn't be beaten by a rather out of form team which has lost a lot of quality. Another interesting point is that there will be around 10,000 Hannover supporters tonight. I think there are very high restrictions for the away game vs St Liege but the supporters want to celebrate at least one real European night away from home, therefore they all go to Denmark.

    UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 2nd November

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 2nd November

    Under 2.75 (goal line) is currently 2.025 on Bet365. I think this is probably the play. On paper Bayern's D looks like it has been holding quite well. Has Van Buyten got his act together and become a competent defender? The question is' date=' how adept are they at dealing with counters because that is all they will be facing. As a unit are they up to scratch? I'd appreciate some info because I am now interested in this play given that they will see the vast majority of the ball and may struggle to crack Napoli generally.[/quote'] The statistics (ESPN/Uefa) are quite impressive. At the Allianz their BL opponents take only 4,2 shots (1,7 on goal). I know you can't compare the big leagues in Europe directly but there is only one team better in neutralizing the opponent (at home), namely Barca (4,8 Sh / 1,5 ShG). In three CL games Bayern's opponents took 4 shots on average (2,3 on goal), again only Barca is better. Heynckes took them on a new level. Van Gaal was Ajax through and through and never cared much for a defensive structure, it was all about possession, that was his way of defending. These days have gone, it took Heynckes 2-3 months to implement a well-working pressing system. Plus they invested 40/45m in the defense, Neuer, Boateng, Rafinha. So there might still be a wrestler named van Buyten but he is part of a collective pressing system and surrounded by quality players. Actually he does pretty well:lol. A priori I'd say Bayern is invulnerable right now (at home). But Bayern and Italian teams? Germany and Italy? That was always a weird relationship and if someone can break them at home it has to be an Italian team (no-bet for me though).

    UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 1st November

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 1st November Valencia-Leverkusen I had the same idea as Black Crow that Leverkusen will try to stand compact and would be very satisfied with a 0-0 or 1-1. But then I checked some stats and and realized that Leverkusen hasn't shown this ability yet during the season, the ability of playing a compact game (on the road). The game vs Freiburg (18th) last Friday was the perfect example. Leverkusen took the lead in the 2nd minute, so the situation was clear: Freiburg had to dictate the game, Leverkusen had to stand compact and wait for counter attacks. What happened? Freiburg tore them apart, they took 21 shots (8 on goal) and a better team should've scored 2 or 3 goals easily (Leverkusen won the game, Freiburg is 18th for a reason). And that's actually Leverkusen's average so far: When they play on the road the opponent takes 21,3 shots (5,2 on goal). That's way too much for a 'top' team, even if you compare it with teams like Gladbach or Schalke. And it's not like Leverkusen played only against Bundesliga giants on the road, the game at the Allianz Arena for example was a rather harmless game for Leverkusen because Bayern already focussed on the following CL game, slowed down after an early 2-0 lead and took only 12 shots. A lot of stats, all I wanna say is that I think Leverkusen is very vulnerable and a team like Valencia could easily benefit from that, especially at Mestalla (on the road Valencia seems pretty harmless in front of the goal). Plus Leverkusen's offense is always good for one goal. Therefore over 2,5 @ 1.88 Pinnacle

    UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 1st November

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 1st November Dortmund-Olympiakos Dortmund is constantly overrated in European nights. Yes, they are stronger at home, yes, they play in front of 80k (in the CL only 65k allowed there), yes, they're the reigning German champion. But this is nothing new. When they played in the Europa League last season, they faced Paris SG and Sevilla and in four games they were always the better team - but they didn't win once. People had 1 million explanations and excuses, "conversion of chances", "too inexperienced", "referee". And you know what? This season it's exactly the same, it's repeating itself all over again. Dortmund was better than Arsenal but could only equalize with a late stunner. They were better than Marseille but lost 0-3. And two weeks ago Olympiakos was not the better team but won 3-1. Of course, Dortmund has improved in the Bundesliga over the last few weeks but actually they haven't done anything sensational new. Winning 4-0 vs promoted team Augsburg or 5-0 vs two-faced Cologne doesn't make you a team that 'earns' odds around 1.45 in a CL clash against an experienced team like Olympiakos that basically has seen it all. X/2 @ 3.0 is very interesting But I will create my own X/2 with X @ 5.03 Pinnacle 2 @ 8.5 Bet365

    Germany > Bundesliga > 28th - 30th October

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany > Bundesliga > 28th - 30th October They have key players out but it's nothing new. Just read that Novakovic still not available for today's clash. Cologne might actually win because Augsburg is the weakest team of the league in my eyes. But mind you, Cologne has huge problems with possession. Whenever they had more possession than their opponent during this season, they lost (I think the match vs Kaiserslautern is an exception, 1-1). They just can't control a game and rely on counter attacks - Podolski is one of the best counter-attacking players in this league. But when they have the ball and the opponent is behind it as Augsburg definitely will? Very difficult. Maybe they get an early goal from a set piece and that opens up the game a bit. GL.

    Germany > Bundesliga > 28th - 30th October

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany > Bundesliga > 28th - 30th October Schalke-Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim +0,5 @ 1.86 Hoffenheim has won 2 of 5 games on the road, lost 3. But they lost a derby vs Stuttgart, played vs two-faced Cologne (who managed to win 4-1 at Leverkusen and then to lose 0-3 vs Hertha) and lost at Hannover where Bayern and Dortmund lost, too. And Schalke? Lost the last home game vs Kaiserslautern, had huge problems vs Freiburg (4-2, saw the game, could have easily been a 4-4) and were completely unable to cope with Bayern (unlike Hoffenheim). That's not too convincing because you never know if Huntelaar/Farfan/Raul score 3 goals or only 1, but you definitely know that they're defensively vulnerable. New Coach Stevens will try to strengthen their defense but especially in home games I wouldn't expect the right balance yet. Hoffenheim plays a good pressing game higher up the pitch and it's very difficult for opponents to create chances. On the road their opponents take only 11 shots on average (that's the second-best figure in the league), so it's not easy to really dominate them and in my eyes new coach Stanislawski already did a great job regarding the tactical order on the pitch. The results show that they're vulnerable but looking at the odds I think they're a little bit underrated here. Especially the results against Dortmund or Bayern and the way how they neutralized those offensive machines make me think that Hoffenheim is definitely capable of withstanding Huntelaar and Co. Hoffenheim was promoted to the Bundesliga just 3 years ago, so there's not much history between the clubs. But in 6 games Hoffenheim only lost once vs Schalke, in 3 away games they won twice. Absentees: Important midfielder Rudy could be available for Hoffenheim again. Salihovic, Mlapa, Weis still out, old news. Schalke without GK Fährmann, Escudero, Hoogland, probably Marica and Metzelder. But that won't affect them much, a team like this: Unnerstall, Höwedes, Papadopoulus, Matip, Fuchs, Jones, Holtby, Farfan, Raúl, Draxler, Huntelaar, is very likely. I'll check the starting XI in 20 minutes. Edit: Rudy not available, I'll stick to my pick though.

    Germany > Bundesliga II > 28-31 October

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany > Bundesliga II > 28-31 October Union Berlin - St. Pauli = Union AH0 @ 1.91 This is a very interesting matchup as one of the strongest home teams hosts one of the strongest away teams. Union at home: 5-0-1 13:6 goals St Pauli away: 3-1-1 9:4 goals Three Reasons why I prefer Union: - After a good start St. Pauli has some problems showing consistency at the moment, you can see that when you look at the results (lost 2 of their last 3 home games), but more than that you can see it on the pitch. They won the last match vs FSV but actually it was a disappointing display, the players seemed kind of frightened - the opposite of what they usually appear to be. - That has among other things to do with their injury situation which has even increased. They will play without Rothenbach, Sobiech, Boll and Ebbers, that means every part of their team is affected by the absence of at least one important player. They will field a strong line-up but it's impossible to compensate the injuries. -History: The City of Berlin is St. Paulis bestia negra, like the Spaniards say, means: St Pauli can't win in Berlin. Well, they can and did, but not often. They played Union 5 times in Berlin and won just once. They played Hertha 9 times in Berlin and won just once. But okay, more like a funny fact. Situation is that you have a very confident Union team that has lost only one home game since February (vs first placed Fürth) and a Pauli team that is affected by injuries and that won't show the 'balance' they're usually known for. Plus they hate Berlin. I've read no important team news about Union, Terodde still not available but with Mosquera (3 goals) and Silvio (4 goals) they will field two strong strikers.:hope

    Germany - DFB Pokal - 25-26 October

    in German Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Germany - DFB Pokal - 25-26 October

    Also based on the form i see Fortuna Duseldorf winning at home tomorrow' date=' dont have any team news as really dont know any site, but if you could share a brief thought on other matches would be good. Thans and good luck with your pick-s[/quote'] Yes, another win is very likely. 1860 just reached a new low point on the road by giving Rostock the first win of the entire season. On 1860 forums there's not much belief, some are hoping for a disaster because they want the manager to be sacked. But odds around 1.7? Two months ago they were around 2.1 (when they met in the league), the circumstances have changed but 1860 still has players like Aigner, Volland, Lauth. Personally I really don't like to put money on Cup games, with Dortmund it's an exception because that game has written 'goal festival' all over it (but odds already have fallen).
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