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Sputnik

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About Sputnik

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  • Birthday 06/07/1982
  1. Re: DFB Pokal - 7-8 February I think the Bayern odds haven't got any value. I already wrote it a couple of times: the last time Bayern were really convincing away from home was in September when they won 2-0 at Schalke. After that they struggled on the road, they even struggled at Augsburg (2-1, way closer than they wanted) and in the Cup game vs Bochum (2-1, Bayern won in injury time). They won 2-1 at Stuttgart but Stuttgart were down to 10 men for 60 minutes, and that was just an unnecessary foul (double yellow) near the halfway line. Stuttgart AH+1 @ 1.88 Pinnacle is better value in my eyes. Or what about Stuttgart to qualify @ 4.5 Bet365 - I find this odd kind of shocking as both teams have problems right now, but Stuttgart have home advantage, and in the end it's still a Cup game, maybe worth small stakes. But I already lost too much money in this year's Cup, so no-bet for me.
  2. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Kaiserslautern - Cologne = under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 Bet365 Lautern only scored more than 1 goal in one of the last 10 games (actually that was last week at Augsburg, 2-2, both goals came from right-back Dick), their last 6 home games were under. Their best scorer is Shechter with 3 goals in 17 games. Their strikers scored combined 6 goals in the league. The whole team scored 15 goals in 19 games. I think we don't need to talk about the meaning of Podolski for Cologne, bascially it's FC Podolski. And he'll be out for a couple of weeks. He scored 15 times and delivered 5 assists in 18 games. That means he scored 54% of their goals and contributed all in all to 71% of their goals. They brought in Chong Tese this week from Bochum as a replacement for Podolski while he's injured, but he's more or less only a mediocre 2nd division striker (4 goals this season). Second best goal scorer on the team is Clemens with 4 goals. You see what I'm driving at: Lautern have huge goal scoring issues and the only reason Cologne don't have goal scoring issues is Podolski. Lautern ain't that bad at creating chances but they just don't have a reliable scorer. Cologne on the other hand have huge problems at creating chances but have Podolski who can make something out of nothing. I can only think of this as a low scoring game and I foresee one of the most boring games of the season.
  3. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February BL clubs were the biggest spenders in Europe so it's hard to tell what kind of influence all those players will have. Some notable transfers: Corluka -> Leverkusen (biggest name in the transfer window) Junuzovic -> Bremen, should add creativity in MF Diouf -> Hannover, should increase their fire power (former ManUtd striker) Lakic -> Hoffenheim, fire power (scored 16 goals last season for Kaiserslautern) Zidan -> Mainz, fire power (an old love, once scored 13 goals in 15 games for them) Wolfsburg kind of renewed their whole squad, new left back, new central midfielders, new attacking players. Cisse -> Newcastle, now Freiburg are probably a real 2nd division team. Here's an overview, "Zugänge" are new players, "Abgänge" the opposite. http://derstandard.at/1326504260631/Transfers-Spitzenklubs-zurueckhaltend
  4. Re: Bundesliga II - 3-6 February I guess he wants to wait and see how the teams are doing after the long winter break and how new players affect their performances. Hopefully he'll be back soon.
  5. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Wolfsburg-Gladbach = Gladbach -0,25 @ 2.17 Bet365 I'm gonna stick with Gladbach, I already wrote something about them last Sunday and it hasn't changed but was confirmed against Stuttgart when they won 3-0. That was my analysis: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/126052-Bundesliga-27-29-January?p=2104341#post2104341 To put it in a nutshell: Gladbach are defensively the best organized team in the league and it's very tough to score against them, at the same time they attack quickly and are among the best two counter-attacking teams in the league (I have no stats for this but in my eyes probably only Dortmund can do it better). Two weeks ago I talked about Wolfsburg's new players they brought in this winter, and that they will need time to gel. They had a rather good game against Cologne (1-0) but were lucky defensively as Cologne had a couple (2-3) of 100 percent chances to score. Last week Wolfsburg lost 2-0 at the Allianz Arena and did a fine job defensively but were completely harmless on offense. Wolfsburg will try to find a better balance, they will have more possession than last week and will give Gladbach more spaces than they gave Bayern, because it's a home game and Gladbach are not Bayern (funny that Gladbach are still profiting from an underdog status). So these are my two main points: a) even if Wolfsburg will go hard on offense it will be very tough to score against a well-organized Gladbach side, b) there will be plenty of space for Gladbach's fast attacks, not only because Gladbach will find space during counter-attacks but because Wolfsburg just haven't had the time yet to really gel well. Gladbach are very impressive after the winter break, Wolfsburg are in transition.
  6. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Suttgart-Gladbach = Gladbach +0 @ 2.08 Bet365 Suttgart shouldn't be favourites to win this game, they've only won 1 of the last 9 games (2-1 at home against 17th ranked Augsburg) and lost 5 of them - lost 4 of the last 5 games. At the beginning of the season I was rather convinced of them and thought they could compete for a Europa League spot as they have some nice names among their attacking players, but they've never really gelled well, players were underperforming and they scored only 24 goals in 18 games. A typical mid-table team at the moment. That's why they brought in Ibisevic this week, striker from Hoffenheim, but I don't expect him to change the character of their game. They have some injury problems as well (Gentner is not available, he scored 3 of their last 4 goals) but should be able to field an 'average' Stuttgart line-up. Gladbach on a CL spot, with no remarkable injuries, won 6 of the last 8 games (+ 1-1 vs Dortmund / lost at Augsburg without Reus) and had a very good start into the second half of the season with the 3-1 vs Bayern. I don't see them as 'super-team' that nobody can stop, especially away from home they need to work hard for their points. But they have this nice combination of a compact defense and fast attacks. Manager Favre changed their character as a defensive team from day one and it's very tough to score against them for every other BL team - there was only 1 game when they conceded more than 1 goal (2-2 vs Leverkusen). And at the same time they have players like Reus and Arango (+ Herrman seems to become more and more important) who can change a game in 10 seconds with 1 pass and 1 shot. I don't expect Suttgart to be too reluctant today. They would be more passive against Bayern and Dortmund, but you can't only focus on counter-attacks vs. Gladbach because they would just not accept this role, maybe at Augsburg but not at Stuttgart. I think Stuttgart will have more of the ball and therefore Gladbach can do what they're best at: defending and attacking fast.
  7. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Both teams have goal scoring issues. Nuremberg scored 19 goals in 18 games, 7 goals in 9 away games. It is expected that Esswein and Eigler will start as strikers, they scored combined 3 goals in the league. It's true, Nuremberg scored 2 goals last week and 3 goals in the last game before the winter break. But I don't think this is a real upwards trend, they just don't have much fire power, it's simply a question of quality in my eyes. Hannover scored 20 goals in 18 games, 14 goals in 9 home games. In the last 5 games they scored 3 goals. With Abdellaoue they have a good striker (9 goals) but he's their only real striking force and he has only scored 1 goal in the last 6 games. That's why they are in the race for ManUtd's Diouf, they need another striker they can rely on. Typical stat line would be 20 shots (total), 6 on goal, 1-2 goals. I'd be surprised if we see more than two goals tonight and I think under 2,5 goals @ 1.8 Pinnacle is still a value bet. Shouldn't be a high scoring game.
  8. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January Ribery is not injured but suspended. In the first half of the season he was Bayern's MVP with 8 goals and 9 assists - that means he contributed to 40% of their entire BL goals. I already wrote this three days ago (where has my post gone btw?:(), this will be a balanced game and Bayern will be - at most - slight favourites to win this. Odds have already drifted but Gladbach +0,5 or +1 is still a value pick. The last time Bayern were convincing on the road was in September. The last time Gladbach were not convincing at home under Favre - well, I can't remember. Heynckes lost all real manager duels in the first of the season - vs Favre, vs Slomka, vs Tuchel and vs Klopp. And I don't expect him to win this.
  9. 20th Dec Düsseldorf-Dortmund over 2.5 goals @ 1,81 Pinnacle I think we have a good combination here: Dortmund will field the best possible starting line-up. But they're quite injury-plagued. Götze is out, they were quite impressive without him at Freiburg (4-1) though. They'll miss two centre backs and therefore field Owomoyela in the centre (I only know him as a full-back), and there's a question mark behind full-back Schmelzer as well. The absence of CM Bender is another point. All in all they'll possibly lack order in some situations but should always be an offensive threat, even without Götze (atm they rely more on Lewandowski than on Götze). Düsseldorf are 1st in the 2.BL and will party against the reigning German champion, next league game is in February, so they can just completely enjoy it and go for it. In recent games they actually struggled a bit, with only 2 wins in the last 5 games and the first home defeat in 15 months. If that means that they'll defend sloppily, I'm fine with it. Their offense wasn't really the problem, they have players with high individual quality, Rösler has BL experience, and Dortmund are already in the race for Beister who should be extra motivated for this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Dortmund can't keep a clean sheet, especially of course with their injury problems. But in the end it's still a game between one of the best two teams in Germany and a 2nd division team, odds should be around 1.6-1.65 imho. It's the last game of the year for both teams and the cup has a high reputation in Germany. I think we'll see a lot of energy on the pitch and hopefully some goals.
  10. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Kaiserslautern-Hannover = under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Pinnacle Simple reasoning, both teams have huge goal scoring issues, Lautern in general, Hannover especially away from home. Lautern: - 12 goals in 16 games - 6 goals in 7 home games - scored 2 or more goals in 2 of 16 games - last 7 games under Hannover: - 19 goals in 16 games - 5 goals in 7 away games - scored 2 goals in 1 of 7 away games Kaiserslautern simply lack a true goal scorer. And Hannover's Abdellaoue shot 7 of his 8 goals at home. I can't exactly foresee who will try or have to take control of the game as both teams prefer a rather defensive role. But that's exactly the point, both will be rather reluctant and I don't expect many shots on goal.
  11. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Yes, Cologne are shocking. But they're efficient, that's why they are 10th in the table. They're the team in the BL with the least shots, they take only 7.8 shots per game, only 3.3 on goal. But they managed to score 27 goals. That means they need only 1.9 shots on goal per goal. I follow a lot of statistics but I haven't seen anything like that in any of the big European leagues this season. The name for it is of course Podolski. And if you add the fact that Bayern have conceded in every of the last 5 league games (plus CL), I think Both to score @ 2.1 Bet365 could be a good option. Podolski as anytime goalscorer around 5.0 Betfair also seems interesting.
  12. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Cologne-Mainz Cologne +0 @ 1.90 Bet365 I wrote something about Mainz last Saturday in this thread and I think the market is overrating them again. Good team but under 'normal' circumstances not good enough to take three points from Cologne. Their pressing requires a lot of energy they get from the home crowd, away from home they show a different style of play, a weaker mentality. It's tough to beat them though, they only lost once in six away games. But if you look at the opponents they faced on the road (apart from Hannover we're talking about mediocre/weak home teams), I think it's more remarkable they only won once. An important point is that they will miss Ivanschitz, he's their best goal scorer. You know how many goals he made? 5. That really tells the whole story about Mainz, they lack goal scoring skills. But Ivanschitz was very important in recent games. When they were 2-0 down at Wolfsburg, he got a penalty and scored it (FT 2-2). He scored the opening goal against Bayern and delivered an assist (FT 3-2). Stuttgart - penalty (FT 3-1). And so on. Cologne are probably the most two-faced team in the league and it's tough to rely on them as a punter. But in recent home games I found them very intense and pretty convincing. Of course, we can't forget the 0-3 against Gladbach at home. But that was a derby against one of the most inform teams right now (despite their loss at Augsburg...). Other than that Cologne have shown some good displays against teams that are definitely not weaker than Mainz (Hoffenheim, Hannover...). 4 wins in the last 5 home games, 11:3 goals in those games. The most important factor for Cologne is of course Podolski, doing some unbelievable stuff this season, 13 goals, 5 assists in 14 games. There's a lot of talking about his contract situation and possible transfers but this somehow makes him only better. If you find some good odds on him scoring, it might be a good alternative. I haven't found any (only around 6/5). But with him they're favourites to win this and a good bit underrated by the market imho. Edit: odds drifting, now @2.05... Bet365 and Pinnacle really got Mainz as favourites. But there are no news that Podolski won't play (or sth like that).
  13. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Mainz-Hamburg = Hamburg+0,5 @ 1.83 Bet365 Mainz are a good team and back on track with 7 points out of the last 3 games. With two home wins against Stuttgart and Bayern they finally proved that they're competetive after losing three key players. But the idea represented in the odds (home win around 2.0/2.1) is that Mainz are strong favourites to win nearly every home game as there are not many teams atm that are stronger form-wise than Hamburg. And this idea is wrong in my eyes. When they beat Suttgart it was a deserved win but the match turning goal was a result of a wrong penalty call. When they beat Bayern it was a huge team effort, they played some wonderful pressing and got their counter-attacks, but they only had 30% possession and they can't repeat such a passive game against any other BL team, they will have much more of the ball and need to do something without the space Bayern gave them. Plus overperforming at home vs Bayern is not a rare thing in the BL. I rate them high, but not 2.0-high. Hamburg on the other hand haven't lost under Fink (6 games 2-4-0). If you watch them play, you'll see that they're still not stable or 100% balanced, but somehow we're talking about a complete different team, their defense is better, attacking players like Jansen seem on the way to old strength, they appear much more confident and show team spirit. They earned a draw at Leverkusen and Hannover in two tough away games and should've probably gotten more out of it. Good form, good mind-set and on a 'not losing' streak. Good value in my eyes.
  14. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December It's a b-team, they even rest Neuer, Lahm, Müller, Gomez. Contento, the left-back, is maybe not even 2nd division quality. Really, not much quality, offense harmless. City -1 shouldn't be a problem, as naive as it sounds.