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** December Poker League Result : 1st muttley, 2nd LIKE2FISH, 3rd kevsul **
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About Sputnik

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 06/07/1982
  1. Re: DFB Pokal - 7-8 February I think the Bayern odds haven't got any value. I already wrote it a couple of times: the last time Bayern were really convincing away from home was in September when they won 2-0 at Schalke. After that they struggled on the road, they even struggled at Augsburg (2-1, way closer than they wanted) and in the Cup game vs Bochum (2-1, Bayern won in injury time). They won 2-1 at Stuttgart but Stuttgart were down to 10 men for 60 minutes, and that was just an unnecessary foul (double yellow) near the halfway line. Stuttgart AH+1 @ 1.88 Pinnacle is better value in my e
  2. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Kaiserslautern - Cologne = under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 Bet365 Lautern only scored more than 1 goal in one of the last 10 games (actually that was last week at Augsburg, 2-2, both goals came from right-back Dick), their last 6 home games were under. Their best scorer is Shechter with 3 goals in 17 games. Their strikers scored combined 6 goals in the league. The whole team scored 15 goals in 19 games. I think we don't need to talk about the meaning of Podolski for Cologne, bascially it's FC Podolski. And he'll be out for a couple of weeks. He scored 15 times and de
  3. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February BL clubs were the biggest spenders in Europe so it's hard to tell what kind of influence all those players will have. Some notable transfers: Corluka -> Leverkusen (biggest name in the transfer window) Junuzovic -> Bremen, should add creativity in MF Diouf -> Hannover, should increase their fire power (former ManUtd striker) Lakic -> Hoffenheim, fire power (scored 16 goals last season for Kaiserslautern) Zidan -> Mainz, fire power (an old love, once scored 13 goals in 15 games for them) Wolfsburg kind of renewed their whole squad, new left bac
  4. Re: Bundesliga II - 3-6 February I guess he wants to wait and see how the teams are doing after the long winter break and how new players affect their performances. Hopefully he'll be back soon.
  5. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Wolfsburg-Gladbach = Gladbach -0,25 @ 2.17 Bet365 I'm gonna stick with Gladbach, I already wrote something about them last Sunday and it hasn't changed but was confirmed against Stuttgart when they won 3-0. That was my analysis: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/126052-Bundesliga-27-29-January?p=2104341#post2104341 To put it in a nutshell: Gladbach are defensively the best organized team in the league and it's very tough to score against them, at the same time they attack quickly and are among the best two counter-attacking teams in the league (I have no
  6. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Suttgart-Gladbach = Gladbach +0 @ 2.08 Bet365 Suttgart shouldn't be favourites to win this game, they've only won 1 of the last 9 games (2-1 at home against 17th ranked Augsburg) and lost 5 of them - lost 4 of the last 5 games. At the beginning of the season I was rather convinced of them and thought they could compete for a Europa League spot as they have some nice names among their attacking players, but they've never really gelled well, players were underperforming and they scored only 24 goals in 18 games. A typical mid-table team at the moment. That's wh
  7. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Both teams have goal scoring issues. Nuremberg scored 19 goals in 18 games, 7 goals in 9 away games. It is expected that Esswein and Eigler will start as strikers, they scored combined 3 goals in the league. It's true, Nuremberg scored 2 goals last week and 3 goals in the last game before the winter break. But I don't think this is a real upwards trend, they just don't have much fire power, it's simply a question of quality in my eyes. Hannover scored 20 goals in 18 games, 14 goals in 9 home games. In the last 5 games they scored 3 goals. With Abdellaoue they
  8. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January Ribery is not injured but suspended. In the first half of the season he was Bayern's MVP with 8 goals and 9 assists - that means he contributed to 40% of their entire BL goals. I already wrote this three days ago (where has my post gone btw?:(), this will be a balanced game and Bayern will be - at most - slight favourites to win this. Odds have already drifted but Gladbach +0,5 or +1 is still a value pick. The last time Bayern were convincing on the road was in September. The last time Gladbach were not convincing at home under Favre - well, I c
  9. 20th Dec Düsseldorf-Dortmund over 2.5 goals @ 1,81 Pinnacle I think we have a good combination here: Dortmund will field the best possible starting line-up. But they're quite injury-plagued. Götze is out, they were quite impressive without him at Freiburg (4-1) though. They'll miss two centre backs and therefore field Owomoyela in the centre (I only know him as a full-back), and there's a question mark behind full-back Schmelzer as well. The absence of CM Bender is another point. All in all they'll possibly lack order in some situations but should always be an offensive threat, even without
  10. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Kaiserslautern-Hannover = under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Pinnacle Simple reasoning, both teams have huge goal scoring issues, Lautern in general, Hannover especially away from home. Lautern: - 12 goals in 16 games - 6 goals in 7 home games - scored 2 or more goals in 2 of 16 games - last 7 games under Hannover: - 19 goals in 16 games - 5 goals in 7 away games - scored 2 goals in 1 of 7 away games Kaiserslautern simply lack a true goal scorer. And Hannover's Abdellaoue shot 7 of his 8 goals at home. I can't exactly foresee who will try or have to take co
  11. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Yes, Cologne are shocking. But they're efficient, that's why they are 10th in the table. They're the team in the BL with the least shots, they take only 7.8 shots per game, only 3.3 on goal. But they managed to score 27 goals. That means they need only 1.9 shots on goal per goal. I follow a lot of statistics but I haven't seen anything like that in any of the big European leagues this season. The name for it is of course Podolski. And if you add the fact that Bayern have conceded in every of the last 5 league games (plus CL), I think Both to score @
  12. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Cologne-Mainz Cologne +0 @ 1.90 Bet365 I wrote something about Mainz last Saturday in this thread and I think the market is overrating them again. Good team but under 'normal' circumstances not good enough to take three points from Cologne. Their pressing requires a lot of energy they get from the home crowd, away from home they show a different style of play, a weaker mentality. It's tough to beat them though, they only lost once in six away games. But if you look at the opponents they faced on the road (apart from Hannover we're talking about med
  13. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Mainz-Hamburg = Hamburg+0,5 @ 1.83 Bet365 Mainz are a good team and back on track with 7 points out of the last 3 games. With two home wins against Stuttgart and Bayern they finally proved that they're competetive after losing three key players. But the idea represented in the odds (home win around 2.0/2.1) is that Mainz are strong favourites to win nearly every home game as there are not many teams atm that are stronger form-wise than Hamburg. And this idea is wrong in my eyes. When they beat Suttgart it was a deserved win but the match turning goa
  14. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December It's a b-team, they even rest Neuer, Lahm, Müller, Gomez. Contento, the left-back, is maybe not even 2nd division quality. Really, not much quality, offense harmless. City -1 shouldn't be a problem, as naive as it sounds.
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