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Sputnik

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Everything posted by Sputnik

  1. Re: DFB Pokal - 7-8 February I think the Bayern odds haven't got any value. I already wrote it a couple of times: the last time Bayern were really convincing away from home was in September when they won 2-0 at Schalke. After that they struggled on the road, they even struggled at Augsburg (2-1, way closer than they wanted) and in the Cup game vs Bochum (2-1, Bayern won in injury time). They won 2-1 at Stuttgart but Stuttgart were down to 10 men for 60 minutes, and that was just an unnecessary foul (double yellow) near the halfway line. Stuttgart AH+1 @ 1.88 Pinnacle is better value in my eyes. Or what about Stuttgart to qualify @ 4.5 Bet365 - I find this odd kind of shocking as both teams have problems right now, but Stuttgart have home advantage, and in the end it's still a Cup game, maybe worth small stakes. But I already lost too much money in this year's Cup, so no-bet for me.
  2. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Kaiserslautern - Cologne = under 2.5 goals @ 1.88 Bet365 Lautern only scored more than 1 goal in one of the last 10 games (actually that was last week at Augsburg, 2-2, both goals came from right-back Dick), their last 6 home games were under. Their best scorer is Shechter with 3 goals in 17 games. Their strikers scored combined 6 goals in the league. The whole team scored 15 goals in 19 games. I think we don't need to talk about the meaning of Podolski for Cologne, bascially it's FC Podolski. And he'll be out for a couple of weeks. He scored 15 times and delivered 5 assists in 18 games. That means he scored 54% of their goals and contributed all in all to 71% of their goals. They brought in Chong Tese this week from Bochum as a replacement for Podolski while he's injured, but he's more or less only a mediocre 2nd division striker (4 goals this season). Second best goal scorer on the team is Clemens with 4 goals. You see what I'm driving at: Lautern have huge goal scoring issues and the only reason Cologne don't have goal scoring issues is Podolski. Lautern ain't that bad at creating chances but they just don't have a reliable scorer. Cologne on the other hand have huge problems at creating chances but have Podolski who can make something out of nothing. I can only think of this as a low scoring game and I foresee one of the most boring games of the season.
  3. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February BL clubs were the biggest spenders in Europe so it's hard to tell what kind of influence all those players will have. Some notable transfers: Corluka -> Leverkusen (biggest name in the transfer window) Junuzovic -> Bremen, should add creativity in MF Diouf -> Hannover, should increase their fire power (former ManUtd striker) Lakic -> Hoffenheim, fire power (scored 16 goals last season for Kaiserslautern) Zidan -> Mainz, fire power (an old love, once scored 13 goals in 15 games for them) Wolfsburg kind of renewed their whole squad, new left back, new central midfielders, new attacking players. Cisse -> Newcastle, now Freiburg are probably a real 2nd division team. Here's an overview, "Zugänge" are new players, "Abgänge" the opposite. http://derstandard.at/1326504260631/Transfers-Spitzenklubs-zurueckhaltend
  4. Re: Bundesliga II - 3-6 February I guess he wants to wait and see how the teams are doing after the long winter break and how new players affect their performances. Hopefully he'll be back soon.
  5. Re: Bundesliga - 3-5 February Wolfsburg-Gladbach = Gladbach -0,25 @ 2.17 Bet365 I'm gonna stick with Gladbach, I already wrote something about them last Sunday and it hasn't changed but was confirmed against Stuttgart when they won 3-0. That was my analysis: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/126052-Bundesliga-27-29-January?p=2104341#post2104341 To put it in a nutshell: Gladbach are defensively the best organized team in the league and it's very tough to score against them, at the same time they attack quickly and are among the best two counter-attacking teams in the league (I have no stats for this but in my eyes probably only Dortmund can do it better). Two weeks ago I talked about Wolfsburg's new players they brought in this winter, and that they will need time to gel. They had a rather good game against Cologne (1-0) but were lucky defensively as Cologne had a couple (2-3) of 100 percent chances to score. Last week Wolfsburg lost 2-0 at the Allianz Arena and did a fine job defensively but were completely harmless on offense. Wolfsburg will try to find a better balance, they will have more possession than last week and will give Gladbach more spaces than they gave Bayern, because it's a home game and Gladbach are not Bayern (funny that Gladbach are still profiting from an underdog status). So these are my two main points: a) even if Wolfsburg will go hard on offense it will be very tough to score against a well-organized Gladbach side, b) there will be plenty of space for Gladbach's fast attacks, not only because Gladbach will find space during counter-attacks but because Wolfsburg just haven't had the time yet to really gel well. Gladbach are very impressive after the winter break, Wolfsburg are in transition.
  6. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Suttgart-Gladbach = Gladbach +0 @ 2.08 Bet365 Suttgart shouldn't be favourites to win this game, they've only won 1 of the last 9 games (2-1 at home against 17th ranked Augsburg) and lost 5 of them - lost 4 of the last 5 games. At the beginning of the season I was rather convinced of them and thought they could compete for a Europa League spot as they have some nice names among their attacking players, but they've never really gelled well, players were underperforming and they scored only 24 goals in 18 games. A typical mid-table team at the moment. That's why they brought in Ibisevic this week, striker from Hoffenheim, but I don't expect him to change the character of their game. They have some injury problems as well (Gentner is not available, he scored 3 of their last 4 goals) but should be able to field an 'average' Stuttgart line-up. Gladbach on a CL spot, with no remarkable injuries, won 6 of the last 8 games (+ 1-1 vs Dortmund / lost at Augsburg without Reus) and had a very good start into the second half of the season with the 3-1 vs Bayern. I don't see them as 'super-team' that nobody can stop, especially away from home they need to work hard for their points. But they have this nice combination of a compact defense and fast attacks. Manager Favre changed their character as a defensive team from day one and it's very tough to score against them for every other BL team - there was only 1 game when they conceded more than 1 goal (2-2 vs Leverkusen). And at the same time they have players like Reus and Arango (+ Herrman seems to become more and more important) who can change a game in 10 seconds with 1 pass and 1 shot. I don't expect Suttgart to be too reluctant today. They would be more passive against Bayern and Dortmund, but you can't only focus on counter-attacks vs. Gladbach because they would just not accept this role, maybe at Augsburg but not at Stuttgart. I think Stuttgart will have more of the ball and therefore Gladbach can do what they're best at: defending and attacking fast.
  7. Re: Bundesliga - 27-29 January Both teams have goal scoring issues. Nuremberg scored 19 goals in 18 games, 7 goals in 9 away games. It is expected that Esswein and Eigler will start as strikers, they scored combined 3 goals in the league. It's true, Nuremberg scored 2 goals last week and 3 goals in the last game before the winter break. But I don't think this is a real upwards trend, they just don't have much fire power, it's simply a question of quality in my eyes. Hannover scored 20 goals in 18 games, 14 goals in 9 home games. In the last 5 games they scored 3 goals. With Abdellaoue they have a good striker (9 goals) but he's their only real striking force and he has only scored 1 goal in the last 6 games. That's why they are in the race for ManUtd's Diouf, they need another striker they can rely on. Typical stat line would be 20 shots (total), 6 on goal, 1-2 goals. I'd be surprised if we see more than two goals tonight and I think under 2,5 goals @ 1.8 Pinnacle is still a value bet. Shouldn't be a high scoring game.
  8. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January Ribery is not injured but suspended. In the first half of the season he was Bayern's MVP with 8 goals and 9 assists - that means he contributed to 40% of their entire BL goals. I already wrote this three days ago (where has my post gone btw?:(), this will be a balanced game and Bayern will be - at most - slight favourites to win this. Odds have already drifted but Gladbach +0,5 or +1 is still a value pick. The last time Bayern were convincing on the road was in September. The last time Gladbach were not convincing at home under Favre - well, I can't remember. Heynckes lost all real manager duels in the first of the season - vs Favre, vs Slomka, vs Tuchel and vs Klopp. And I don't expect him to win this.
  9. 20th Dec Düsseldorf-Dortmund over 2.5 goals @ 1,81 Pinnacle I think we have a good combination here: Dortmund will field the best possible starting line-up. But they're quite injury-plagued. Götze is out, they were quite impressive without him at Freiburg (4-1) though. They'll miss two centre backs and therefore field Owomoyela in the centre (I only know him as a full-back), and there's a question mark behind full-back Schmelzer as well. The absence of CM Bender is another point. All in all they'll possibly lack order in some situations but should always be an offensive threat, even without Götze (atm they rely more on Lewandowski than on Götze). Düsseldorf are 1st in the 2.BL and will party against the reigning German champion, next league game is in February, so they can just completely enjoy it and go for it. In recent games they actually struggled a bit, with only 2 wins in the last 5 games and the first home defeat in 15 months. If that means that they'll defend sloppily, I'm fine with it. Their offense wasn't really the problem, they have players with high individual quality, Rösler has BL experience, and Dortmund are already in the race for Beister who should be extra motivated for this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Dortmund can't keep a clean sheet, especially of course with their injury problems. But in the end it's still a game between one of the best two teams in Germany and a 2nd division team, odds should be around 1.6-1.65 imho. It's the last game of the year for both teams and the cup has a high reputation in Germany. I think we'll see a lot of energy on the pitch and hopefully some goals.
  10. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Kaiserslautern-Hannover = under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Pinnacle Simple reasoning, both teams have huge goal scoring issues, Lautern in general, Hannover especially away from home. Lautern: - 12 goals in 16 games - 6 goals in 7 home games - scored 2 or more goals in 2 of 16 games - last 7 games under Hannover: - 19 goals in 16 games - 5 goals in 7 away games - scored 2 goals in 1 of 7 away games Kaiserslautern simply lack a true goal scorer. And Hannover's Abdellaoue shot 7 of his 8 goals at home. I can't exactly foresee who will try or have to take control of the game as both teams prefer a rather defensive role. But that's exactly the point, both will be rather reluctant and I don't expect many shots on goal.
  11. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 16-18 December Yes, Cologne are shocking. But they're efficient, that's why they are 10th in the table. They're the team in the BL with the least shots, they take only 7.8 shots per game, only 3.3 on goal. But they managed to score 27 goals. That means they need only 1.9 shots on goal per goal. I follow a lot of statistics but I haven't seen anything like that in any of the big European leagues this season. The name for it is of course Podolski. And if you add the fact that Bayern have conceded in every of the last 5 league games (plus CL), I think Both to score @ 2.1 Bet365 could be a good option. Podolski as anytime goalscorer around 5.0 Betfair also seems interesting.
  12. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Cologne-Mainz Cologne +0 @ 1.90 Bet365 I wrote something about Mainz last Saturday in this thread and I think the market is overrating them again. Good team but under 'normal' circumstances not good enough to take three points from Cologne. Their pressing requires a lot of energy they get from the home crowd, away from home they show a different style of play, a weaker mentality. It's tough to beat them though, they only lost once in six away games. But if you look at the opponents they faced on the road (apart from Hannover we're talking about mediocre/weak home teams), I think it's more remarkable they only won once. An important point is that they will miss Ivanschitz, he's their best goal scorer. You know how many goals he made? 5. That really tells the whole story about Mainz, they lack goal scoring skills. But Ivanschitz was very important in recent games. When they were 2-0 down at Wolfsburg, he got a penalty and scored it (FT 2-2). He scored the opening goal against Bayern and delivered an assist (FT 3-2). Stuttgart - penalty (FT 3-1). And so on. Cologne are probably the most two-faced team in the league and it's tough to rely on them as a punter. But in recent home games I found them very intense and pretty convincing. Of course, we can't forget the 0-3 against Gladbach at home. But that was a derby against one of the most inform teams right now (despite their loss at Augsburg...). Other than that Cologne have shown some good displays against teams that are definitely not weaker than Mainz (Hoffenheim, Hannover...). 4 wins in the last 5 home games, 11:3 goals in those games. The most important factor for Cologne is of course Podolski, doing some unbelievable stuff this season, 13 goals, 5 assists in 14 games. There's a lot of talking about his contract situation and possible transfers but this somehow makes him only better. If you find some good odds on him scoring, it might be a good alternative. I haven't found any (only around 6/5). But with him they're favourites to win this and a good bit underrated by the market imho. Edit: odds drifting, now @2.05... Bet365 and Pinnacle really got Mainz as favourites. But there are no news that Podolski won't play (or sth like that).
  13. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 9-13 December Mainz-Hamburg = Hamburg+0,5 @ 1.83 Bet365 Mainz are a good team and back on track with 7 points out of the last 3 games. With two home wins against Stuttgart and Bayern they finally proved that they're competetive after losing three key players. But the idea represented in the odds (home win around 2.0/2.1) is that Mainz are strong favourites to win nearly every home game as there are not many teams atm that are stronger form-wise than Hamburg. And this idea is wrong in my eyes. When they beat Suttgart it was a deserved win but the match turning goal was a result of a wrong penalty call. When they beat Bayern it was a huge team effort, they played some wonderful pressing and got their counter-attacks, but they only had 30% possession and they can't repeat such a passive game against any other BL team, they will have much more of the ball and need to do something without the space Bayern gave them. Plus overperforming at home vs Bayern is not a rare thing in the BL. I rate them high, but not 2.0-high. Hamburg on the other hand haven't lost under Fink (6 games 2-4-0). If you watch them play, you'll see that they're still not stable or 100% balanced, but somehow we're talking about a complete different team, their defense is better, attacking players like Jansen seem on the way to old strength, they appear much more confident and show team spirit. They earned a draw at Leverkusen and Hannover in two tough away games and should've probably gotten more out of it. Good form, good mind-set and on a 'not losing' streak. Good value in my eyes.
  14. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December It's a b-team, they even rest Neuer, Lahm, Müller, Gomez. Contento, the left-back, is maybe not even 2nd division quality. Really, not much quality, offense harmless. City -1 shouldn't be a problem, as naive as it sounds.
  15. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December Lille-Trabzon = Trabzon +1,25 @ 2.05 Pinnacle The problem with Lille is that they're very inefficient. Accoring to Uefa stats they have an average of 6,2 shots on goal per game. But they only shot 6 goals. That means: They need 5,2 shots on goal per goal. You won't find any strong team in the CL that needs so many shots on goal (well, except for Lyon obviously). In Ligue 1 they are better with 3,5 shots on goal per goal, but even these numbers are way too high for a top team of the domestic league. They lack concentration, coolness or just quality in front of the goal. 16 Ligue1 games = 27 goals, 5 CL games = 6 goals. Really doesn't impress me. Trabzonspor on the other hand have only conceded 5 goals in 5 CL games, three at CSKA in a wild but balanced game (score 3-0 is misleading in my eyes). In three games against Inter and Lille they were 1-2-0 with 3:2 goals. What more can we ask of a team that went into the CL just because Fenerbahce got problems with the Uefa? I really like what Trabzon have done and I have no clue why Lille are hyped that way for this game. Lille proved they struggle in front of the goal. Trabzon proved (especially defensively) they can compete on a Inter-/Lille-level.
  16. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December Robben stayed home with flu. I don't know if Heynckes will rest Lahm, Müller (I don't expect it), but a Bayern team without Schweinsteiger, Kroos and Robben (all absent) will struggle heavily.
  17. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 2-4 December if it stays 3-1 please remove the 'thanks'. very kind of you, Maierhofersneck. but Bayern should be up 4-1. just a bad analysis.
  18. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 2-4 December Bayern-Bremen: Bremen +1,75 @ 2.08 Bet365 Last week I said that it'd be very difficult for Bayern to win against Mainz by a 2 goal margin. In the end Bayern lost and were even weaker than I had expected. For Bayern fans that game was the sad proof that Bayern depend much stronger on Schweinsteiger than on Robben or Ribery. Without him they lack compactness, balance, control. If you miss a winger, you'll have a problem on the wing. If you miss a central midfielder on Schweinsteiger's level, your entire play will be different. And he won't play today. Just take a look at the numbers: 14,5 league and CL games with him: Bayern conceded 5 goals 4,5 league and CL games without him: Bayern conceded 7 goals But it's not only about defensive problems, the whole pressing is different, there's a huge hole between the back four and the midfield, the flow has gone. Plus Schweinsteiger has delivered the most pre-assists for Bayern. That's the first reason why the odds leave me puzzled. The second is: this is Bayern-Bremen, a huge game in Germany, not only because it's 3rd vs 4th but because it's an absolute classic: the Nord-Süd-Gipfel. And in those games we'll never have (such) a high favourite. At the Allianz Arena (opened in 2005) Bayern won only 1 of 6 games against Bremen (1-4-1). Bremen are normally an offensive team, they play a high line and therefore struggle defensively. But against Bayern they usually play like nearly every team plays: 10 men behind the ball, parking the bus, waiting for counter-attacks. That's why they didn't concede many goals in Munich over the last few years. They're able to play like this and nearly every recent Bayern game showed how much Bayern struggle against those teams atm. Bremen's Pizarro (11 goals, 4 assists) will be available again, but I don't know if he'll be on the starting line-up. I wouldn't be surprised if Bremen can earn a draw today. However, I'd be very surprised if Bayern win by a 2 goal margin.
  19. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 2-4 December Good analyses everybody:clap In my opinion there are two important questions tonight: -Which Leverkusen face will we see tonight? Leverkusen lacks consistency big time. They win against Chelsea and Valencia and are at the same time not really able to compete with the German Top 5. Started at Dresden four months ago and is still to be seen just like last weekend at Hertha. They haven't won two consecutive league matches since August: not consistent. -Can Hoffenheim finally take some of their chances? They scored 12 times in their first 6 matches. And in the following 8 they only scored 4 times. Scored only once in the last 4 away games. But that's not due to the fact they lack opportunities. I just checked their last three away games to confirm my impressions and in those 3 games they had an average of 15 shots (5 on goal), believe it or not, but most top teams don't have such an average on the road. At the same time it means: they took 45 shots (15! on goal) - and got only 1 goal. Simply awful. I expect this trend to continue and I put my money on it. Leverkusen got the quality to score goals no matter the opponent. And if Hoffenheim continue to do what they did in the last 4 away games, then Leverkusen could win by 2(+) goal margin. My opinion: Either Hoffenheim will get 1 or three points or they will go down. Therefore (european) HC Leverkusen @ 21/10 PaddyPower, small stakes.
  20. Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 30th November Standard - Hannover: over 2,5 goals @ 2.03 Pinnacle Both teams have 8 points, this game probably decides the group winner. The difference between them is that Hannover's last game is at home against Poltava (1p) while Standard will play on the road against Copenhagen (who might have 7p tonight). Markets obivously expect Hannover to focus on the defense and therefore a low-scoring match which makes somehow sense considering they played 0-0 in September. But what can we really expect from the teams? Standard will definitely want to win this game, they're much better organised now than three months ago, forwards Cyriac and Tchité are in a good form, they even changed the system to a more offensive 4-4-2. And after a quite problematic start to the domestic season they got their act together (form 4-1-0). They will miss their captain Van Damme but I expect his absence having a rather positive influence on this bet as they won't be that stable without him in midfield. Hannover recently struggled in the BL. After they won against Bayern they only gained 2 points out of the last 12, ok, they played at Gladbach and against Schalke but I've watched them last Saturday against Hamburg and that was just a very lucky draw for Hannover and they weren't too convincing (then again you should youtube schlaudraff + hamburg, what a fantastic strike). Bottom line is that they were pretty vulnerable lately (conceded 10 in the last 5) and usually struggle on the road (second worst away team in the BL). At the same time they still have their extraordinary counter-attacking and an offensive team like Standard, who want and need possession tonight, should be the perfect opponent for Hannover. Hannover can score against any team in the world as long as they don't have to make the running. They will miss their captain (RB Cherundolo), too, and that should have a rather positive influence on this bet, too. I actually find the odds on Standard quite interesting as they're in a good form while Hannover struggled a bit. But Hannover seem pretty stable on the international stage and the fact that they can rely on their counter-attacks should be an advantage. I expect a pretty wild and high-scoring game considering the circumstances I've just described.
  21. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 25-27 November Mainz-Bayern: Mainz +1,5 @ 1.88 Bet365 I watch nearly every Bayern game and I really have to say that away from home they just keep on struggling. They've had a short period in September when everything just worked out well but I think they reached kind of a peak with the win against Manchester City. After that they only had 3 good games and that were the home games against Hertha, Nürnberg and Villarreal (they got other wins too but close and not that superior). But the rest? Especially on the road they couldn't convince anymore, 0-0 at Hoffenheim, 1-2 at Hannover, 2-1 at Augsburg, 1-1 at Napoli. So the only away win in the last four games was against the weakest team of the league (and that was close until the end). In those games Bayern had an own goal, gave away a penalty, got 2 red cards, gave away unnecessary free-kicks/corners which became decisive, they got it all. One important reason why this may continue is the injury of Schweinsteiger. Robben is back - but where has he been against Dortmund/Villarreal? He needs more time. Mainz may miss Kirchhoff and - again - captain Noveski. Central defense could be: Bungert-Svensson. I wrote something about how one shouldn't underestimate Mainz when they played against Stuttgart three weeks ago, problem was that I put my money on Stuttgart+0 and then Mainz beat them 3-1. Mainz lost Schürrle, Fuchs and Holtby in the summer and that'd be tough for a lot of teams. But their stats (shots etc.) are still good for such a small team and Tuchel is acknowledged as one the most competent managers in Germany (at leas in terms of tactics). What they lack is efficiency and that'll be their problem throughout the whole season because Schürrle is now a Leverkusen player and goal-scoring skills cost money. But they play a good pressing, make the spaces close, create chances - and hope for somebody to step in and shoot the goal. And if we talk about efficiency: Bayern need 4 shots on goal per goal on the road, that is eveything but efficient considering they average 'only' 6 shots on goal away from home. Today it'll be very tough for Bayern to win by a 2 goal margin.
  22. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 25-27 November :welcome I agree. I think the odds are too low on Gladbach. When they played at Hertha three weeks ago the odds were around 3 (up to 3.3). What has changed since then? Reus has changed. Maybe a combination of 'Cologne to win' and 'Reus to score' (1? 2?) could be interesting (single bets of course).
  23. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 25-27 November Bremen-Stuttgart = Stuttgart +0,5 @ 1.8 Ladbrokes Most important thing for this bet: Pizarro probably won't play (11 goals, 4 assists in 12 games) - I really can't translate the whole story (which was kind of a little drama between Pizarro, the club officials and the medical staff) but after everything what happened, what he said, what the manager just said (they have hope / but he probably won't play) I think he won't play. But I can't guarantee it, it's just that the odds will drift imo once it is 100% confirmed. Pizarro is the reason why Bremen are among the top 5 teams of the league atm. At the beginning of the season they got some good results and the average football fan thought "Oh, Bremen are recovering" (after a horrible last season) but I say they just had inferior opponents (and Pizarro), they started their home series against Lautern, Freiburg, Hamburg and Hertha - not exactly what you call the top of the league right now. Against Hertha they played 11 vs 9 for 30 minutes but it took Pizarro till overtime to score the winner. Against Cologne it was 11 vs 10 for 40 minutes and again Pizarro scored the late winner (86th). Dortmund finished them offf at Bremen (again with only ten men). And then finally Gladbach destroyed them 5-0 last week and that was really exactly the Bremen that we know - always vulnerable in the defense and offensively strongly dependent on Pizarro (who took a day off). With Pizarro out I have no idea who'll be the dangerous man up front, Rosenberg and Wagner shouldn't play in the BL imho and Arnautovic is still waiting for his breakthrough. RB Sokratis is suspended. And there is a question mark behind Naldo (CB), too. I have no idea how they will compensate all that without becoming a second division defense. Stuttgart very balanced on the road, 2-2-2 / 8:8 goals, lost against smaller teams (Hertha, Mainz) but I don't want to talk about them too much. Stuttgart have the quality that is needed to get one or even three points, I'm sure of that, no important team news so far.The focus lies here on Bremen who are overpriced at home because Pizarro shot some goals against inferior team. No we have a better opponent and (probably) no Pizarro. Good value in my eyes.
  24. Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 25-27 November Paddypower got Reus as anytime goalscorer @ 3/1. Don't know why but he should be the most dangerous player on the pitch with 7 goals in the last three games.