captaincool
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Posts posted by captaincool
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Re: Learning Discipline I'm back in with another two from Goodwood to finish my day's betting. Crown Dependency @9/2 All reasons stated above Strong Suit @3/1 I just think that this price is too good to ignore for a fantastic horse. He won the jersey stakes and was close to winning the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly, which is a listed race. He isn't finished improving and is well and truly confirming his 2-year-old promise. A case could be made for Delegator but he's riding under a penalty and was beaten in the July Cup. Strong Suit just ticks all the boxes and I think he should be a shorter price. So, today's racing bets: Fiorente - 1pt Strong Suit - 0.5pts Crown Dependency - 0.5pts. I can find reasons not to back anything in the tennis at Umag and Gstaad but may have a bet or two in America tonight. Seems to be a lot of love for Berankis and I can see why, so that's an interesting option. Serena Williams and Tamira Paszek stand out in the WTA matches - should both beat handicaps.
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Re: Learning Discipline So, this morning is the first test of discipline and it's tough. I'm no horse racing expert but I can happily work my way through a card like today's at Goodwood but that's precisely what I want to avoid doing. I have one bet so far and that is for Fiorente @6/5. Sir Michael Stoute has won the Gordon Stakes four times in the last ten years, most famously with Harbinger a few years ago. He clearly likes to use it for some of his best horses and he has a good one in Fiorente. He looked good in his debut race and maiden win at Newbury, in what were very strong races. However, it was the second to Nathaniel in the King Edward which really confirmed the horse's promise. Nathaniel has since won the King George and it won't take anywhere near that standard to win today. Fiorente 'should' be comfortable here. I'm interested in Crown Dependency in the Molecomb Stakes. As a rule, sticking with Hannon 2-year-olds is a good route to profit and he's won this last the last two years. A strong pace will suit Crown Dependency and Richard Hughes is a good man to have on board but I'm worried about Requinto, who has won a listed race in Ireland. Betting on a place could be an idea but Hughes isn't always the man to trust to do that as he's often win or bust in big meetings. It means that he produces some long odds winners but some poor runs from fancied horses. Will mull it over but it's looking like a no bet at the moment.
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Re: Learning Discipline
Not the start I had wanted for this thread. Both players were awful on serve and the match ended up being played like a WTA match with breaks almost every game! Slightly annoying that Sweeting now faces Kunitsyn or Gonzalez. If it was someone else it'd be worth opposing him but they're both very unpredictable at the moment. So far it's -1pt for the thread :(I've decided to become more disciplined in my betting and I feel keeping a record here is the best way to do this. The threat of public shame will hopefully prevent me from backing stupid bets and this should lead to some profits. My only rule is no impulse bets, particularly live or in-play 'bankers' which have really cost me in the past. I also want to avoid loss chasing as much as possible and I think the best way to do this is to place my bets for the day early and not to deviate. I will be betting on football, tennis and major horse racing events and will use a 5 point staking system. 1pt = £20 (it'll be a long time before I place a max bet). I will be looking to make a profit of 10pts (£200) per week. So, first bet: Somdev Devvarman to beat Ryan Sweeting - 1pt @8/11 ladbrokes There's some good reasoning for this in the tennis thread. Devvarman won when the two met last week and he is a player who has looked fairly good on hard courts this year. That was one of eight losses from Sweeting in his last ten matches and he's not really good enough at ATP level. I think the odds make this a worthwhile play on a player I like. -
I've decided to become more disciplined in my betting and I feel keeping a record here is the best way to do this. The threat of public shame will hopefully prevent me from backing stupid bets and this should lead to some profits. My only rule is no impulse bets, particularly live or in-play 'bankers' which have really cost me in the past. I also want to avoid loss chasing as much as possible and I think the best way to do this is to place my bets for the day early and not to deviate. I will be betting on football, tennis and major horse racing events and will use a 5 point staking system. 1pt = £20 (it'll be a long time before I place a max bet). I will be looking to make a profit of 10pts (£200) per week. So, first bet: Somdev Devvarman to beat Ryan Sweeting - 1pt @8/11 ladbrokes There's some good reasoning for this in the tennis thread. Devvarman won when the two met last week and he is a player who has looked fairly good on hard courts this year. That was one of eight losses from Sweeting in his last ten matches and he's not really good enough at ATP level. I think the odds make this a worthwhile play on a player I like.
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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July
Lost. Fix :lolI think it's foolish to suggest match fixing doesn't go on and I'd imagine that 90% of fixing involves handicaps/total games or some other markets rather than to actually win/lose the game. Far easier and more difficult to prove. However, this is nowhere near as prevalent as some people here seem to think and will happen very, very rarely (although I still believe Simon did earlier in the season, have never seen anything like that game!). For this reason, I'll never back a match involving him and I'd advise others to keep their own lists. The chances are Simon has never fixed a match in his life and I'm just paranoid (or talking out of my pocket) but at least now I can rest easy when he's playing. Basically, my point is, if you keep backing people and keep calling fix, you shouldn't be making the bets. If YOU have any doubts over a player, pick another match to bet on, there are loads daily. Anyway, to get back on track.... I've backed over 8.5 games 1st set @4/7 bet365 in Zvonareva v Koryttseva. I was impressed with Koryttseva against Bondarenko and she was hitting vey well, albeit profiting from some awful play from her opponent. She won't fear Zvonareva, having beaten her in their only previous meeting and I think she can stay with the Russian in the early exchanges. Zvonareva was poor against Tatishvili. She struggled on serve and gave away a lot of points and break opportunities. She's not quite firing at the moment and is maybe suffering from last year's exploits. I think she'll win eventually but we could see something similar to the Tatishvili match (7-5, 6-7, 6-1) where it stays close before Zvonareva runs away with the final set. There's a lot of scope with the 8.5 game line and it doesn't really matter who serves first, just looking to avoid double breaks... -
Re: Tennis - 18-24 July I think it's foolish to suggest match fixing doesn't go on and I'd imagine that 90% of fixing involves handicaps/total games or some other markets rather than to actually win/lose the game. Far easier and more difficult to prove. However, this is nowhere near as prevalent as some people here seem to think and will happen very, very rarely (although I still believe Simon did earlier in the season, have never seen anything like that game!). For this reason, I'll never back a match involving him and I'd advise others to keep their own lists. The chances are Simon has never fixed a match in his life and I'm just paranoid (or talking out of my pocket) but at least now I can rest easy when he's playing. Basically, my point is, if you keep backing people and keep calling fix, you shouldn't be making the bets. If YOU have any doubts over a player, pick another match to bet on, there are loads daily. Anyway, to get back on track.... I've backed over 8.5 games 1st set @4/7 bet365 in Zvonareva v Koryttseva. I was impressed with Koryttseva against Bondarenko and she was hitting vey well, albeit profiting from some awful play from her opponent. She won't fear Zvonareva, having beaten her in their only previous meeting and I think she can stay with the Russian in the early exchanges. Zvonareva was poor against Tatishvili. She struggled on serve and gave away a lot of points and break opportunities. She's not quite firing at the moment and is maybe suffering from last year's exploits. I think she'll win eventually but we could see something similar to the Tatishvili match (7-5, 6-7, 6-1) where it stays close before Zvonareva runs away with the final set. There's a lot of scope with the 8.5 game line and it doesn't really matter who serves first, just looking to avoid double breaks...
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Re: Tennis - 18-24 July
Verdasco won 7-5, 6-2. Once he got going he was far too strong for Stebe. The German had no answer when the Spaniard turned it on in the second set. Unlucky Atko. I don't take any pleasure in being right about those two and had no money on either. Personally I like to put my thoughts up before I take them and welcome any dissent as it makes me re-consider, hopefully you're the same.I'm not sure about either of these. Montanes didn't turn up against Kohlschreiber and the German hasn't been playing well enough to suggest he'll beat Almagro (who has won more matches on clay this year than anyone else on tour). The line doesn't leave that much wiggle room and I'd rather be on Almagro (-2.5) to be honest. Monfils overs is a coin toss. The Frenchman is at a career high ranking, which suggests he's doing something right and Stepanek is 32 now. He was annihilated by GGL last week and he could easily get blown off court by Monfils. I wouldn't recommend betting on that happening but I also wouldn't bet against it. FWIW I'm taking: Verdasco (-3.5) @1.80 bet365 against Stebe Verdasco was impressive against Andujar, winning 6-2, 6-3, and looked like he wanted to win again after some shaky recent performances. He could do with picking up some ranking points ahead of the US Open and this is as good a place as any to get them. Stebe wasn't particularly impressive against Davydenko and should really have lost the second set but well, it's Davydenko. I was annoyed I missed opposing the Russian. Verdasco should prove too powerful for Stebe today and I could see this one finishing 6-2, 6-3 or something like that. When Verdasco's on, he can be very difficult to stop. Stebe lost 6-2, 6-1 to Andujar last week and since then he's faced an exhausted Ferrero and Davydenko, it's not like he's beaten anybody. -
Re: Tennis - 18-24 July
I'm not sure about either of these. Montanes didn't turn up against Kohlschreiber and the German hasn't been playing well enough to suggest he'll beat Almagro (who has won more matches on clay this year than anyone else on tour). The line doesn't leave that much wiggle room and I'd rather be on Almagro (-2.5) to be honest. Monfils overs is a coin toss. The Frenchman is at a career high ranking, which suggests he's doing something right and Stepanek is 32 now. He was annihilated by GGL last week and he could easily get blown off court by Monfils. I wouldn't recommend betting on that happening but I also wouldn't bet against it. FWIW I'm taking: Verdasco (-3.5) @1.80 bet365 against Stebe Verdasco was impressive against Andujar, winning 6-2, 6-3, and looked like he wanted to win again after some shaky recent performances. He could do with picking up some ranking points ahead of the US Open and this is as good a place as any to get them. Stebe wasn't particularly impressive against Davydenko and should really have lost the second set but well, it's Davydenko. I was annoyed I missed opposing the Russian. Verdasco should prove too powerful for Stebe today and I could see this one finishing 6-2, 6-3 or something like that. When Verdasco's on, he can be very difficult to stop. Stebe lost 6-2, 6-1 to Andujar last week and since then he's faced an exhausted Ferrero and Davydenko, it's not like he's beaten anybody.A couple of bets I want to share. Not in consistent form right now but hopeful these can be successful. Hamburg R3: Nicolas Almagro v Philipp Kohlschreiber - Philipp Kohlschreiber +2.5 games @ 1.901 with Pinnacle 5pts Not sure the bookies should be offering us an extra half game. Almagro is probably a justified favourite but Kohlschreiber appears in decent nick this week. As I said yesterday, he plays well in Germany and is confident. He also raises his game against better players and I expect a really tight match. H2H is 2-2, they've both won against each other on clay. Almagro wasn't convincing against Rosol yesterday, nor in Bastad. He's a very capable clay courter but prone to the odd moment of madness. Kohlschreiber isn't bombproof either but I think he'll be pretty motivated to win this one. Might not do that but expect him to ask serious questions of the Spaniard. Hamburg R3: Gael Monfils v Radek Stepanek - Over 21.5 games @ 2.09 with Pinnacle 3pts I had this down as an over 22 line. Not because Stepanek is a world beater, but because he has an abrasive game and Monfils is capable of having a nightmare set. He may have beaten Ramos in straights but gave the wee Spaniard some chances. He just couldn't take them. Stepanek seems to be playing well this week. Beat Beck and Seppi easily enough and will test Monfils. H2H is 4-2 Monfils and, to be fair, most of them have gone under. That in itself is a reason to keep the stake low. Monfils, however, has been ropey of late, giving his opponents chances. 21.5 could be covered in one set, so at nice odds I think it's worth a play. :hope -
Re: Tennis - 18-24 July
Bovina reached new lows in throwing away matches today. That was so pathetic. Not returning mid-court balls and not even bothering to move one feet to either side to get the ball' date=' I mean what the hell was that? Should get banned from tour. There are all sorts of ways you can lose a match you don't want to win but this was just bizzare.[/quote'] Disgaree here. I watched this match (had no bet) and I think it was all about Pavlyuchenkova. She started badly then found a bit of rhythm after holding her second service game (just!). After she broke back Bovina collapsed a bit but I think it was due to the increased pressure Pav was putting her under. You have to remember that Bovina is world number 307, she isn't a good or consistent player and she's up against the number 13 in the world and 2nd seed here. This result wasn't a shock at all and the only way she was going to beat Pav was if the Russian produced another shambolic service performance (if so would you call fix, would certainly seem more likely?). -
Re: Darts: Skybet Mobile World Matchplay Some fantastic calls in here :clap Does anyone know where I can get the stats from Taylor v Hylton tonight?
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Re: Tennis - Wimbledon
Phew! That was a close shave. The Andreev bet almost turned a brilliant day into a terrible one. I'm lucky as well that I placed my bet at coral, who pay out on withdrawals. I also followed the whole forum on the Isner/Mahut unders. Have to say, even that only just managed to sneak in. Overall 3/3 on the posts here and 4/4 in total. I'm not kidding myself though, Mannarino was a bad bet at such short odds and one player in two accumulators = bad.Haven't been around for a while but I've got a couple of accumulators to start my wimbledon campaign. Garcia-Lopez + Tomic - 2.25 I don't think GGL is anything special but Golubev is atrocious at the moment. He's lost something like 12 in a row and I don't think he'll be able to pick things up today. For the second half, I know some people are on Davydenko but I have to oppose him. He has been poor for ages and just doesn't have any power. His forehand is terrible and he hasn't played a game on grass this season. Tomic is young but eager and his grass results have been good this year. Okay, it's challenger level but I just think he can hold his serve enough to win this today. Andreev + Mannarino - 2.10 I think Andreev is a great bet at 4/7. He's not been in brilliant form but he's been losing to decent players (Tsonga, Gasquet, Troicki) while Gabashvili has lost to some very average/poor players (Del Bonis, Cipolla) and has dropped out of the top 100. I fancy Andreev's nous to see him through. The second half is a no-brainer. Conor Niland has come through qualifying but he's almost 30 and ranked 181. Mannarino lost to Ward at Queen's but he'll have taken confidence from beating Del Potro and Simon and should win this in straight sets. Have also taken a big-serving accumulator of Isner, Karlovic, Andreev and Baltacha. Have explained Andreev, while I think Karlovic will see off a wounded Tipsarevic, whose head may drop. Isner I think is bet of the day at 1/2 against Mahut. Isner's return game is much better than it was (see FO v Nadal) and he's too good for Mahut, who is over-rated after last year. Blatacha's a risk but home advantage should see her though. -
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread
Thanks for the response, very detailed. As I said, I like this thread and really don't understand the criticism being levelled. If you know your stuff and are taking good bets consistently then it shouldn't matter whether you back odds-on or 100/1 shots. My problem at the moment is too many bets. I might pick out a very good selection at 11/10 that runs like a 1/9 shot but then I'll think that backing favourites is easy and lose the profit on the next even money shot, assuming it's all that easy :$Hi Captaincool. Firstly, welcome to Punters Lounge and I hope that you're enjoying the early part of your racing punting career. Stick around on the site, you'll learn bucket loads from these guys, I have done over the years. To be honest, I have no set criteria. Alot of it is feel and instinct but there is also alot of form study involved. I consider myself pretty thorough in terms of my form study, I think I have to be with the prices of horses that I back. The 2nd one today, Shamaal Nibras, was one that I picked last night. I tend to do alot of my form study the night before because of the working hours that I work, so I already have it in my head that I have already shortlisted a number for the day. Trumpington Street and Shamaal Nibras were 2 out of 3 that I picked today, the 3rd was Gallivant. The first 2 were maiden races and therefore no prices were available to take last night. Trumpington Street was advised at 8/11 and went off at 4/7. He was given a good ride by the jockey but simply wasn't good enough to go win. I have no problem with that, but he looks unwilling to put his head in front so I won't re-select him until I see evidence in future that suggests his attitude has improved. Shamaal Nibras' price had already gone by the time I logged on, he was already 4/5. I saw the move on Betfair from the price it had been, and you can look at it a couple of ways. I'd expected around 5/4 so it wasn't that much worse. The strong support spoke volumes and I chose to then wait to see if it continued throughout the day (I logged on around Noon) until race time. The support continued which is why I left it so close to race time as at 8/11 I thought he was still a backable price, especially when there was money stacking up on Betfair on all the prices around the eventual SP. It was definitely not a bet just because I had lost, I have eradicated that from my psyche nowadays. I used to do it all the time, but I have learned an extreme amount of discipline thanks to this forum and therefore only back horses that I had chosen the night before on my 'shortlist'. I can't tell you how much this has improved my ability to make profit in general, it's a priceless lesson to learn. It used to cost me alot of money when I chased, that's for sure!!! Incidentally, Gallivant hacked up but his early price was 2/7 which I thought was short enough, and he ended up going off at an SP of 1/9!!! Wow!! Great question though and if you have any more please ask. I'd love to think that anything I can say to you will help you with your strategy or whatever -
Re: Tennis - Wimbledon Haven't been around for a while but I've got a couple of accumulators to start my wimbledon campaign. Garcia-Lopez + Tomic - 2.25 I don't think GGL is anything special but Golubev is atrocious at the moment. He's lost something like 12 in a row and I don't think he'll be able to pick things up today. For the second half, I know some people are on Davydenko but I have to oppose him. He has been poor for ages and just doesn't have any power. His forehand is terrible and he hasn't played a game on grass this season. Tomic is young but eager and his grass results have been good this year. Okay, it's challenger level but I just think he can hold his serve enough to win this today. Andreev + Mannarino - 2.10 I think Andreev is a great bet at 4/7. He's not been in brilliant form but he's been losing to decent players (Tsonga, Gasquet, Troicki) while Gabashvili has lost to some very average/poor players (Del Bonis, Cipolla) and has dropped out of the top 100. I fancy Andreev's nous to see him through. The second half is a no-brainer. Conor Niland has come through qualifying but he's almost 30 and ranked 181. Mannarino lost to Ward at Queen's but he'll have taken confidence from beating Del Potro and Simon and should win this in straight sets. Have also taken a big-serving accumulator of Isner, Karlovic, Andreev and Baltacha. Have explained Andreev, while I think Karlovic will see off a wounded Tipsarevic, whose head may drop. Isner I think is bet of the day at 1/2 against Mahut. Isner's return game is much better than it was (see FO v Nadal) and he's too good for Mahut, who is over-rated after last year. Blatacha's a risk but home advantage should see her though.
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Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread
Hi, I'm very new to the world of horse racing but very interested in the sport. I've been looking at your method and selections and I'm impressed, you certainly know your stuff. But, I'm intrigued by your criteria in selecting horses. As mileni has pointed out, this horse was 2/1 this morning. Did the market support make it a bet or was it a bet that you just missed an early price on? I'm hoping it wasn't (what I find myself doing :( ) simply a pick due to the fact that the early one lost. I'm in no means trying to have a go here because, as stated, I have a lot of respect for you and always look out for your selections in this thread and others, I'm just trying to get some info to learn more myself.Trumpington Street was a major let down there, really poor not to win that race 3:30 Wolverhampton - Shamaal Nibraas - Back Ran a really pleasing race on debut when 4th. He got the picture late on and ran on really strongly and should have learnt alot from that. This looks a moderate bunch and he should go 3 better here 2pts win @ 8/11 Paddy Power BOG -
Re: Tennis - The French Open
Pretty certain that was me :sad I've had a nightmare in the last few days of the French Open and I'm well down (backed my own tips :wall ) In my defence, a lot of them were marginal calls that could have gone either way. Obviously that means it's a bet that probably shouldn't have been made and perhaps my uselessness will serve as a lesson to other punters! Hindisght is 20-20 though. I'll maybe be back later in the week to try and salvage my credibility but I think for the time being, it's just observing and thinking for me. I'll be keeping an eye on your tips (and reasoning) as then maybe I can pick up a few pointers to see where I'm going wrong.Yea probably not the wisest of words and no offence meant to be caused.:\ However,I have been looking in over the past 3 or 4 days and they have not been great.In fact I saw one guy give 6 tips and 5 of them lost! There's another one from last nite at the top of this page where he's given 5 tips for today,which are pretty much the opposite of what's gonna happen -
Re: French Open livescore thread I need Murray to last until the end of this first set. Just hoping that he doesn't quit in the next two games :hope
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Re: Tennis - The French Open
I did, but I would put that down to exhaustion. Simon started like that and got worse! Looks like the Murray reports are unsubstantiated. Odds on Troicki are soaring.You did not see Montanes in the end of the 5th set yesterday? :( -
Re: French Open livescore thread
Radwanska can't deal with players who try to hit through her. She also can't hold her serve. BUT, I'm not touching it.What do we do with Sharapova? Interestig H2H stats for this match 6-1 :beer -
Re: Tennis - The French Open
An awful day. Chela-Falla overs came in Ferrer - lost Kvitova - lost Simon - lost Simon/Soda overs - lost I'm actually pretty aggrieved at all of them. Ferrer shouldn't really have lost to Monfils at the end of the fifth, while Kvitova collapsed after coasting the opening set. As for Simon - did anyone see that display? That was the worst I've seen of anyone this tournament. He just didn't try to do anything, played the same cross court backhands all game and it was just target training for Soderling. I'd love to hear his justification for that one.I think you want to be getting out of both of those bets. Can see Ferrer swatting Monfils aside from here on in. Have taken him at 1.76. Really like your Simon +5.5 bet Atko. I've the same at the lower price of 1.87 on betfair. I'm also adding over 37.5 @1.91. I can't see either player winning in straight sets. I've also added Falla-Chela over 37.5 games. Both have gone at least four sets in their last two and I don't see either player taking this one easily. It could easily be another Fognini-Montanes style match between two players who prefer clay but lack the discipline to really take hold of a match. I expect Chela to win but I don't think he'll do it with ease. Finally, I'm on Kvitova (-2.5) against Na Li. Kvitova is playing some really solid tennis at the moment, hitting well and looking strong. She won Madrid, beating Na Li in the semi finals 6-3, 6-1 and while I don't expect it to be as comprehensive tomorrow, I still think the Czech has the game to beat the Chinese once more. She seems to just do everything Li does a little bit better and she's in better form. Li took three sets to beat Zahlavova then narrowly beat Espinosa in two. Kvitova is about four levels above those two and 2.5 games is nothing. -
Re: French Open livescore thread Embarrassing stuff in the tie-break. Simon should be ashamed of his display today, because Soderling was nothing more than ordinary.
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Re: French Open livescore thread Soderling's trying to throw his lead away but Simon won't let him :lol
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Re: French Open livescore thread
That's not true though. Simon has caused plenty of problems for plenty of players on the tour and this year he has been playing quite well. Soderling has done nothing in this game to warrant the scoreline. It's the way that the crowd are acting as well, as if it's a foregone conclusion from really early. This is a Frenchman who used to be number 6 in the world playing to get into the last eight of his home tournament. If this was a horse race there'd be an investigation.Nah, I just think he just doesn't have the shots to cause Soderling problems, 100% hacker, whilst Monfils hacks, he possesses that ability to change it up. On additional note @ 5-3 Soderling I took him 18.5 unders - Even money - £20, ecstatic I did now. -
Re: French Open livescore thread Does anyone think Simon is throwing this match? He's not managed one break point and has allowed Soderling to make all four. Game looks really, really flat and even the crowd seem to sense something isn't right...
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Re: Tennis - The French Open
Yeah, was just about to add to that. Bookmakers that pay out if a first set is completed pay out on the player taking his place in the next round, regardless of the result of the set that was played. Eg. the Azarenka match that someone alluded to earlier. I had actually bet on Azarenka at Coral and she was an easy winner of the first set before she retired. My bet was a loser. I'll be taking Troicki on betfair pre-match then might top up depending on how Murray looks during the match. Troicki is playing well here anyway and I did mention earlier in the thread that he would be one of a couple of players that could potentially beat Murray, regardless of injury. With an ankle problem and the powerful hitting of Troicki it becomes a must bet IMO.No they don't:lol
Learning Discipline
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Learning Discipline
Yes, you're right. The problem with this is that I'm looking to limit my bets but as you say, I need far more turnover to reach the target. I'd say at the moment that increasing turnover would be a mistake, so I'll just leave the target and see how I go. Probably worth reassessing progress after a week and we'll see what the turnover is like.