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fishy25

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  1. Re: Tennis - 11-17 April I'll take a few today. Agreed with Psycho on a couple, even though he was drunk ;) Olivier Rochus vs Tomas Berdych- Berdych -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Price has slipped for this one since last night but still happy to take anything below a (-5) handicap for the Czech. As psycho mentioned, Berdych has opted to be a wildcard in Monte Carlo, which to me says that he wants to get some clay court matchtime under his belt so he should be up for this one rather than him being here to tank. If this was the case, there aren't any benefits for him playing this week so he should want to win some matches. Rochus, beating Chela is a good result on paper but the stats show that on serve for both players, it was a horror show. 15 break points on serve for the Belgian is poor even for clay tennis and he was thankful that Chela gave him almost as many opportunities on serve. Berdych's serve is alot better than that of Chela's and Rochus won't get as many opportunities, and if Rochus' serve doesn't improve, Berdych should have a fairly straight forward win today. Ernests Gulbis vs Milos Raonic- Raonic +2.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Slightly favouring the wonderkid here over the tempermental Latvian in this one. Raonic has set the tennis world alight this year over on the hard courts with his near enough unstoppable serve and powerful forehand whilst Gublis has been patchy. I know he had some good results on the clay last year, a couple of quarter finals and a semi appearence but as I mentioned Gulbis has a well known tendancy to get frustrated and go missing if things aren't going his way. Raonic with his huge serve means he will get plenty of cheap points on serve and Gulbis could well lose focus due to this as he won't be able to get into any sort of rhythm. I know Raonic dropped that terrible set to Llodra the other day, but that was his first proper match on clay for over a year so I'm putting it down to rustiness and adapting to the conditions. If his serve is on form, he's got a definite chance in this one and could easily pinch a set, if not the match. Anyways if he holds serve 12 service games in the match and loses in 2 tie breaks, the handicap is still valid ;). Fancy the Canadian to keep it fairly tight though and taking this at a decent price. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Ivan Ljubicic- Ljubicic to win- 6/4 Bet365- (4/10) Taking Ljubicic for the win here rather than the insurance of the handicap as I wasn't convinced by Tsonga at all yesterday against Monaco. Alot of breaks in that match, and Tsonga, to win matches and play well needs his serve on form which wasn't the case yesterday. Ljubicic hammered Chardy the other day, saving all 3 of his break points and outplaying the Frenchman in all areas on Chardy's favoured surface. Ljubicic has won the only meeting on clay between the two players and I'll take his to edge this one as a slight dog.

  2. Re: Grand National Thread Yeah just seemed a little strange that it was the only horse to have a fair drift this morning. Just one other thing, I just got told that if u took a horse at bet365 and the odds shorten or drift, the bet placed goes by the biggest price at any given time? I wasn't aware of this but as I've done it with 365, is this correct? EDIT: Scrap this comment, aware of what he meant now.

  3. Re: Grand National Thread Not a expert by any means on the horses and only have a bit of fun in the national. So wondering if anyone can explain to me the drift on Ballabriggs this morning. I took him at 14/1 yesterday which I thought was a decent price knowing how well he jumps, but he's drifted to 18s today. Anyone with a bit more knowledge shed some light on the drift?

  4. Re: Tennis - April 4-10

    Two for me again today, considered the overs in that Fognini match as Atko has mentioned but sticking with the women today. Shahar Peer vs Julia Goerges- Peer -4.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) Sania Mirza vs Sabine Lisicki- Lisicki -3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10)
    LOSS LOSS Like Psycho shocker on the WTA front. Peer never got into it and Lisicki only took 4/14 break points. God I hate clay court tennis.
  5. Re: Tennis - April 4-10 Two for me again today, considered the overs in that Fognini match as Atko has mentioned but sticking with the women today. Shahar Peer vs Julia Goerges- Peer -4.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) Fancy Peer again today and can't add much to what I've said about her in my write ups this week. The clay courts seem to suit her due to the slow conditions and she can play her natural game on them and simply wear her opponent down and pounce on the loose returns. She hammered Arvidsson in her first match, showing that she has recovered from her poor show a couple of weeks back in the US. Goerges is also a good player on clay which is her best surface but against quality opponents, i.e. the top 15, she really struggles. Last year on clay, she beat alot of players who are ranked around the same place as her or worse. However, the likes of Williams, Pennetta, Sharapova and Henin all beat her with some ease. Peer can match all of those players on clay which suggest the German won't be able to cope. Already she has struggled, dropping the first set against Birnerova and only won the match due to her retiring. Peer is on another level to the Czech and she should be comfortable here. Sania Mirza vs Sabine Lisicki- Lisicki -3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Took this one a little earlier and price has dropped a tad but Lisicki should be fine here. Whenever I watch Mirza she really doesn't impress me in the slightest. Know she is seen as a goddess over in India but that simply is down to her lifestyle and that she's the only female tennis player that I'm aware of. Saw her against Jankovic a month or so again and she was well and truly demolished. She didn't play any matches at all on clay last year, and the season before that, only 4. Not really sure why that is, guessing she just isn't keen on the surface. That suggests to me that Lisicki should love her draw today. She missed a lot of tennis last year, including the entire clay season due to an ankle injury but before that she showed what a good player she is. She made the quarters at Wimbledon and also won this very tournament back in 2009. Back then, she beat players such as Williams, Bartoli and Wozniacki which was a top effort. This year she's had to play a number of qualifiers due to her ranking but for Charleston she didn't and she looks like she is making the most of it. Hammered Bartoli last night, showing she is playing well and how she enjoys playing on these courts. If she plays anywhere near how she did against Bartoli, Mirza won't have any answers and should be a quick match. The German already beat Mirza in 3 sets this year back in Auckland and covered the handicap in the process. Would be suprised if she doesn't do the same today and win more comfortably.

  6. Re: Tennis - April 4-10

    Two for me today. Looking to take overs in the Karlovic match but price is too short now so just taking the two. Andrey Kuznetsov vs Marcos Baghdatis- Kuznetsov +3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) Dinara Safina vs Tsvetana Pironkova- Safina -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10)
    WIN WIN Such a messy match between Kuznetsov and Baghdatis, in the third set nobody could hold serve and I thought the youngster would blow the handicap. Safina looked impressive after getting broken in the first game of the match. Good day today though. :ok
  7. Re: Tennis - April 4-10 Two for me today. Looking to take overs in the Karlovic match but price is too short now so just taking the two. Andrey Kuznetsov vs Marcos Baghdatis- Kuznetsov +3.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (6/10) More of a bet against Baghdatis than anything here. He's struggled recently, think he was claiming he had flu or something but that doesn't hide the fact that he was horrible against Rochus and Golubev, whilst he conceded against Devvarman. If it was flu he was suffering from, he should be over it, but as we know with Baggy, things seem to linger on more with him than the average man. Add to this he hasn't played on clay for the Davis Cup like he usually does, he will take some time adapting to the slower conditions. Kuznetsov is no mug either. Up and coming youngster, who has played a lot of tennis on clay this year and won all of his 4 matches in Casablanca without dropping a set. He has a decent serve on him and I'd fancy him to keep it tight for the majority and if Baggy goes missing for some time, he may be able to pinch a set which could see the handicap covered. No way I can favour the Cypriot in any way, shape or form here. One on the women's side as well. Dinara Safina vs Tsvetana Pironkova- Safina -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Think this is the right time to start backing Safina again. She was horrible at the start of the year and for much of last season as well but it looks like she's getting her confidence back gradually. Good wins over Hantuchova, Stosur and Dokic in the past few weeks has shown signs that she is finding her feet again on the tour and she can start to think about climbling the rankings. Saw her yesterday against Rus and she was a touch nervy in the first set but then found her feet and she dominated from there and should have taken the third set much more comfortably. Only 5 Dfs and 4 aces are a pretty decent stat for Safina who can be DF prone as much as Sharapova. Pironkova yesterday had a first serve percenatage of 43 yesterday which is poor by any players standards. I know this may not be telling but if she repeats this today, Safina is one of the players who will completely nail her returns with her power and win the point. Granted she may be wild and erratic at times, but if she's playing with some confidence, she can hit the ball as sweet as any player in the WTA. Taking the risk on her today having her serve in place and not giving up if the slightest things go against her. She's covered the handicap in both meetings between the two players so let's hope she can make it 3rd time lucky.

  8. Re: Tennis - April 4-10

    Not keen on clay tennis tbh but will have a couple today involving the women. Considered Devvarman on handicap but haven't seen him play on clay before so left that well alone. Shahar Peer vs Sofia Arvidsson- Peer -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Andrea Hlavackova vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova- Strycova -5.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10)
    WIN LOSS Easy for Shahar as expected. Strycova took the first set easy enough and had chances in the second but only just scraped through in a final set tie break. Minimal profit overall though.
  9. Re: Tennis - April 4-10 Not keen on clay tennis tbh but will have a couple today involving the women. Considered Devvarman on handicap but haven't seen him play on clay before so left that well alone. Shahar Peer vs Sofia Arvidsson- Peer -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Spoke about Shahar in my reasoning for the outright and she shouldn't have any problems in the early rounds. Granted she had a poor result over in Miami but due to her early exit, she has had plenty of time to rest and recover for the clay court season where as I've mentioned, she could do some real damage. Last year in her 4 clay tournaments, she beat players such as Li Na, Safina, Mattek-Sands and Radwanska, all players a class above her opponent today. Arvidsson hasn't really got going this year at all, failing to get past the second round in any tournament. Lost to Bondarenko and Stevenson this year, two players she should definitely be beating comfortably. Mattek-Sands easily beat her over in Miami a couple of weeks back and Peer these days is on another level to the American. Suprised she beat the mentally weak Cornet yesterday. Despite the victory, Cornet actually won more points overall and it was only due to her poor break point conversion stats that she didn't win the match. 9/14 it stood at, Peer won't let her off like Cornet did. They met once before where Peer covered the handicap in 3 sets back in 08, she's a better player now at a 4.5 handicap seems well within her range. Andrea Hlavackova vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova- Strycova -5.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Quite a big handicap this one but still feel it's achievable for the Czech. She's a pretty handy player on the clay courts as shown last year from her final appearence in Prague whilst her fellow countrywomen and opponent has been in poor form in the last couple of months. Losses in the qualifiers and first rounds hasn't allowed her to get into any sort of routine or form and I just see her not being able to cope with Strycova today who has beaten some good opponents this year. One H2H, which Strycova covered the handicap in, one comfortable set should be good enough for the handicap.

  10. Re: Tennis - April 4-10 Nothing for me today. Close to taking Riba for the win, Martic on the handicap and the unders in Cirstea-Errani affair but decided against them all in the end. Not keen on the clay tournament early rounds. Have taken one outright though, which I've got a feeling IAG will disagree with ;) Shahar Peer to win Charleston- 33/1 Bet365- (0.5/10 E/W) Of course Shahar is an outsider but certainly not a 33/1 shot in my books. We saw examples last year of how much her game has come on when playing on the slow clay courts and she can trouble anyone in the world on her day. She was 12-4 overall on clay with the only opponents who beat her were Henin and the dreaded Williams sisters. However, all 3 of those are absent and there isn't a player in the draw who she can't match on the clay courts. Although her best results generally come on hard, or me clay suits her perfectly as it allows her to build points and outlast her opponents on the big points. That extra pace that she generates on the ball to suprise her opponent is complimented well also with the clay. Going back to the draw then, who is she likely to face? Well she's got an extra day to prepare as she is the 5th seed for the tournament which will benefit her I think as she was off in her match in Miami, meaning she should be fresh to go this week. Second round opponents either Arvidsson or Cornet, most likely the latter, but it's always a mystery with her. Regardless of who it is between those two, Peer should cruise through. 100% record against both, Cornet both times in straight sets so the third round should be pretty straight forward for the Israeli. After that looks to be Goerges waiting for her which under normal circumstances could be a tricky one but the German has lost to some pretty average opponents this season, even on her preferred clay surface so Peer should be too good for her in that one. If she wins both of those she should have picked up some confidence from losing her last 2 matches and she'll need that confidence against Stosur in the quarters. Was tempted to take Stosur for the outright and to retain her title as well but it's a bit too low for me and her form isn't nearly as good as it was 12 months ago. Sharapova beat her last week and before that she was done by Safina. Peer is the sort of player that Stosur struggles with as she'll be able to cope with Stosur's power and cleverly get herself back into the rallies. We can see this as Peer has won 2/3 on clay against Stosur and if they were both playing at the top of their game of clay, I'd give the slight edge to Peer so I'd fancy Stosur to struggle in that one. That's the only opponent on her side of the draw that could really trouble her if she's playing well. If she gets to the semis, not fussed about who she has. Probably one of Peng, Bartoli or Petrova and you'd fancy Peer against any of those 3 on clay. H2H is in her favour against Peng and Bartoi, Petrova could be tricky but she retired from her match last week so there's some concerns over her this week. Her run in to the final doesn't look terrible and at 33/1, any show in the final would get a tidy return. Would also be a chance to lay her in the semis if it came to it. Final opponent for her if she gets there? Jankovic, Wickmayer or Wozniacki most likely but really don't know about that side of the draw. If peer got there it's a one off match anyway so she'd obviously have a chance with the form she'd be in if she does get to that final. Think it will be between her and Stosur tbh, and due to the price, can't not take it.

  11. Re: Tennis 7-20 March For me I wouldn't trust Sharapova against anyone yet unless she is around evens. Still a double fault machine on serve and not the most agile around court. Too much risk involved in taking her. Agree with Psycho with the point of live betting on it. Within the first few games you can often see how Sharapova's matches are going to go. GL on the bets guys, I'm probably off till the weekend. :ok

  12. Re: Tennis 7-20 March

    Back to a slight profit overall now after yesterday. A further 3 for me today. Considered the overs in the Benny Lopez match but left that in the end with the price a bit short for my liking for an overs bet. Santiago Giraldo vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver- Under 20.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs Shahar Peer- Peer -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Ana Ivanovic vs Kimiko Date-Krumm- Over 21.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10)
    LOSS LOSS LOSS Giraldo failing to serve for the unders was a sign of things to come. Peer wasn't at her best and Ivanovic easily won against Krumm. Taking a break from the betting for a week or so due to Uni exams. Hate going out on a low but that's how it goes sometimes. GL to the rest this week, hope there's some profit to be had by all.
  13. Re: Tennis 7-20 March Back to a slight profit overall now after yesterday. A further 3 for me today. Considered the overs in the Benny Lopez match but left that in the end with the price a bit short for my liking for an overs bet. Santiago Giraldo vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver- Under 20.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Not much to add to Atko's post about this one although he certainly got a generous price for this one as it has dropped a fair bit in the last day or so. The Spaniard has failed to win a match this year or even a set in any of his matches showing where he is at with his game at the minute. Giraldo on the other hand has looked good this year, beating good quality opponents and reaching an ATP final as well in the process. They've met twice, including on hard this year, where the unders came in. Expect Giraldo to cruise here and win in comfortable fashion. Couple of picks for the women as well. Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs Shahar Peer- Peer -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Again favouring Shahar in the early rounds in a match in which she dominates the H2H. Mattek-Sands has been a bit hit and miss this year losing to some very average opponents. Peer has been her consistent self, winning easily in the early rounds but failing to really go on and challenge for the titles. She was poor against Bartoli in her last match, with her serve not being there at all but knowing Shahar, she will put that firmly behind her and move on. She has had a couple of weeks to get over that result and she should be up for todays match. It's a bit of a poor match up for the American here as Peer will be patient and then turn the heat up suddenly to put pressure on her opponents. The American isn't the most agile or stamina friendly IMO so for her to play a girl like Peer isn't the draw she would have hoped for. This is shown in the H2H which is 4-0 to Peer, only dropping a set in these meetings which was on clay. On the hard courts, it 6-0 to Shahar in sets, including a 2-0 win last year in Indian Wells and I'd fancy her to win this in comfortable fashion as well. She's covered the handicap in all 4 meetings between the two so I'll back her to do the same again. Ana Ivanovic vs Kimiko Date-Krumm- Over 21.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Taking another overs for the third day in a row purely because I can't see either of these plays winning a match at the minute without some trouble in the process. Krumm seems to be always involved in some really lengthy matches and tight sets, no matter who her opponent is. 8 of her last 10 matches have gone overs. Not really sure why that is. She's over 40 years of age now so you'd think that she would be soiled after a couple of sets but it's not the case. Ivanovic you have to be a bit wary over at the minute. Crumbled against Schnyder in her last match after winning the first set, apparantly down to an abdominal injury but not 100% about that one. Her last 3 matches have gone overs anyways and like Krumm, I don't see her being able to win easily. They have played once before, at the back end of last season, which Ivanovic took in 3 sets, but the overs was covered after just the first two sets, echoing what I said about Krumm being involved in some really tight sets. Not a bad price for the overs so I'll back these two to battle out a close one.

  14. Re: Tennis 7-20 March

    One for me today, I'm hooked on the women's overs early doors. Urzula Radwanska vs Bojana Jovanovski- Over 21.5 games- Evens Bet365- (4/10) WIN
    Turned into a 3 hour epic in the end. Thought it was lost in the second set where Radwanska couldn't hold for shit but she managed to somehow turn that around and take the match. Good price that came in though so I'm happy with that. GL to the rest tonight.
  15. Re: Tennis 7-20 March

    To say that Mannarino is similar to Jones.... and that all he has is a big serve :rollin you need to watch some more tennis before forming opinions.
    Agreed with this. Can't think of a more inaccurate description for the Frenchman. His serve isn't huge. He focuses on playing the points with defensive shots and putting that extra pace on the ball to suprise his opponents. Certainly no Karlovic.
  16. Re: Tennis 7-20 March One for me today, I'm hooked on the women's overs early doors. Urzula Radwanska vs Bojana Jovanovski- Over 21.5 games- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Not sure I quite understand the odds here. These two have been no strangers to some lengthy matches this year and despite Jovanovski being a very promising youngster, Radwanska has enough about her to create some chances of her own. At time this year, Jovanovski has gone missing in one set of her matches before regaining focus to win them. Looking at the last 10 matches of both players says alot to me. Radwanska has covered the overs in 7 of those 10 with the Serb going over in 6. The odd thing to me with these odds is that over the past couple of weeks, they have in fact played eachother twice, both being won by Jovanovski in 3 sets. Both have conceded a 6-1 set in one of those two matches which shows how they can both go missing at stages in matches. Evens for the overs which have been covered by these two twice in the past couple of weeks, see no reason why it should be priced like this and see this being another close one.

  17. Re: Tennis 7-20 March

    Taking my first few of the tournament on the women's side of things. Top players get a bye through so looking at the rest of the pack here. Vania King vs Gisela Dulko- Dulko -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Kristina Barrois vs Lucie Safarova- Over 19.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Romina Oprandi vs Sania Mirza- Over 20.5 games- Evens Bet365- (5/10) LOSS WIN VOID
    Horrible first set for Dulko meant it was an uphill task for the handicap but she blew a match point at 1-5 in the final set to actually cover it. Overs came in nicely in the Safarova match, whilst Oprandi retired after just 3 games :loon. Could have been a lot better but a small loss to start off this week.
  18. Re: Tennis 7-20 March Taking my first few of the tournament on the women's side of things. Top players get a bye through so looking at the rest of the pack here. Vania King vs Gisela Dulko- Dulko -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Handicap has just gone to a 4.5 which I still think Dulko will cover but the 3.5 was a must have IMO. Gisela had won her last 10 matches on tour before she fell to Pav in the semis in Mexico which I think underlines what a good patch of form she is enjoying at the minute. She easily beat the likes of Pervak, Wozniak and Benesova last week, all players who aren't a million miles away from the standard of King, except Benesova who is better and Dulko still beat her in straight sets. King on the other hand has lost her last 3, most recently to an out of form Melanie Oudin who given the circumstances, King should have beaten. Problem for the American in that match was her service games. So often she would get to 30/40-0 but still end up getting broken. Dulko will be good enough to punish the bad serves and put them away with her own serve not being bad either. Dulko has shown she can be competitive against players such as Wozniacki on hard this year, she should be able to cruise through this one, covering the handicap in the meantime. Kristina Barrois vs Lucie Safarova- Over 19.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Line looks a little low to me for a Safarova match despite her good form last week. Know IAG likes taking the overs on Lucie's matches as she is somewhat famous these days for lengthy matches with 3 sets but with this line, a couple of close sets could be enough to see it come in. There were worries over Safarova's fitness last week but it didn't seem to affect her at all, perhaps with the slight exception in the third set against Dokic. She's played a lot of tennis last week so I'm doubting she will be 100% and she could be a little slow at the start of the match. Barrois isn't the worst of players either and showed this by taking a set of Clijsters this year in Paris so she can play this girl. Most interest stat for me is that in both players' last 10 matches, 7 of them, (14 in total) have covered the overs in question here which stands out to me as another good reason to take the line here. They've played once before, granted a while back but that again went to 3 sets. Just think Barrois can be competitive here and hold her own against the Czech and trouble her at times which would bring the overs well into contention. Romina Oprandi vs Sania Mirza- Over 20.5 games- Evens Bet365- (5/10) Opting for the overs again here at a decent enough price for me to take it. Actually thought the line would be higher with a lower price due to Mirza's injury but she is still a heavy favourite for this one according to the bookies, evidently down to Oprandi losing her last 9 matches. However, of those 9 matches, the last 7 have gone for the overs, with the majority being played in 3 sets. The Italian is just struggling for confidence really and had chances against both Kirilenko at the AO and Voracova on the clay a couple of weeks back, but due to her losing streak, her confidence is at an extreme low and she failed to break her season duck. Saw Mirza's last match against Jankovic where she was completely outplayed and outclassed without Jankovic breaking into sweat. The Indian superstar didn't play last wekk due to a knee injury so not overly confident over her fitness and unsure how that injury wll hamper her in the match. A girl with an injury and a girl who can't muster a win, just indicates to me that neither will win easily or in a straight forward manner so overs at evens, I'll have some of that.

  19. Re: Tennis 7-20 March

    Finally, we have a proper men's event to shout about :D The main draw has been made for Indian Wells and all the big guns are there. Indian Wells and Miami are two of my favourite events, almost what I'd call "elite slams", and I expect this to be a high-calibre tournament. From a betting perspective on the outright market, I think this is impossible to call. I can see the four main protagonists getting to at least the quarter-finals. From then on, it comes down to form and H2Hs. Novak Djokovic is obviously playing extremely well and goes in, rightly, as favourite, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal can't be discounted. Andy Murray at 7.00 might be the value bet, but there are too many questions that need answering on his mental state of mind. Looking forward to the match odds coming out, but in terms of an outright, this looks tough.
    I second that. Back to business at last with the tennis. Should be good opportunities to get involved for the men and women over the next couple of weeks. Here's hoping for a good week for all :cheers
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