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Mr Intensity

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    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Nadal is vunerable on hard courts but over 5 sets is very tough to beat. Gonzalez has the exact style that does well against him on hard (Gonzlez, Berdych, Youzhny, Monfils etc) and destroyed him in Aus Open 2007. But Nadal has improved a lot since then and Nadal beat him 3-0 on hard in the Olympic final. Also concerned that Gonzalez had a very tough match against Gasquet (also 5 sets v Hewitt) and you don't want to be even a little bit tired against Nadal. I'm surprised Gonzalez is as big a price as he is (10.00 was available last night) but I'm not sure how I'm going to play that game:unsure.

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    murray suffering from illness. murray wont be fresh. VERDASCO's pumping wid confidence . beat stepanek or w/e 6-4 6-0 6-0 That just shows, he really is "hot sauce" .. at the moment.
    6-4 6-0 6-0 most likely shows that Stepanek gave up:ok Can I get a link to info on Murrays illness? Just read his interview after the Melzer match and he made no mention of it:unsure

    Australian Open 2009 - chat thread, (in-play comments and banter)

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - chat thread, (in-play comments and banter)

    Intensity I know you are not a superman in betting but Santoro upset twice Garcia Lopez and all other ATP bets are great. I don't bet on WTA but you got great bets on that to. Bartoli the latest was over 4.00, very nice again but I won't start betting WTA anyway. I like ATP more. I never carea about those womens.
    Cheers mate:ok

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Gonzo won a 5 set epic, both the 1st set bets had chances but lost. DEL POTRO @ 1.465 Pinnacle. I thought this would be general 1.33 going to 1.40 tops. Del Potro has looked fine coming through so far, and is at least a year ahead of Cilic in his development. He's turning into a big time player and he should definately come through this. He's very solid and serves just as well as Cilic. Over 3 sets Cilic would have a decent chance, but over 5 it's del Potro all the way for me. BAGHDATIS @ 3.75 totesport. Baghdatis looks to be back to close to his best in this tournament. He had to come from a set and a break down against Soderling then totally dominated the match against Fish. He looks to be playing with his unique blend of passion and happiness, his crowd are back and he loves this tournament. Still not convinced about Djokovic. He's had a decent draw so far and dropping a set to Delic isn't very good. He hasn't really been pressured yet and this will be a big test. I expect this to be close and I'll back Baggy to cause a big shock. BARTOLI @ 4.5 totesport. Looking for another big upset here. Bartoli has looked very good so far, coming through a couple of tough tests. She looks slimmer than at the end of last season, and hitting very well. Jankovic has been a bit unconvincing so far. She hasn't dropped a set, but had trouble with Flipkens and Sugiyama and this is going to be a much tougher test. H2H is 3-3 including Bartolis win in a cracking match at Wimbeldon 2007. PETROVA @ 2.74 Pinnacle. This one is interesting. H2H is 5-1 to Petrova including a win last year. Petrova looks to be playing well in this tournament and when she serves well is very tough to beat. Zvonareva has come through easily so far, but I'm not convinced she's in the same form as late last year. DOKIC @ 1.75 VC. Stand out price here from VC. Both coming off big upsets in the last round. Think Dokic will handle it better, especially on 'her' court with 'her' crowd. It will definately be tough for Kleybanova to deal with. This could well be Dokic's tournament, and I think she'll pass this test. She's show Kleybanova what a real ball basher is about!

    Heavy favourites 2009

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Heavy favourites 2009 Results: Potentials: 1pt TSONGA v Sela @ 1.16 Pinnacle :D profit 0.16pts 1pt S WILLIAMS v Peng @ 1.09 Pinnacle :D profit 0.09pts 1pt AZARENKA v Mauresmo @ 1.33 Boylesports :D profit 0.3333pts 1pt CIBULKOVA v Razzano @ 1.25 Pinnacle :D profit 0.25pts W/L: 29/6 Total staked: 35pts Profit: 0.2092pts Yield: 0.58% Actuals: 1pt TSONGA v Sela @ 1.16 Pinnacle :D profit 0.16pts 1pt AZARENKA v Mauresmo @ 1.33 Boylesports :D profit 0.3333pts 1pt CIBULKOVA v Razzano @ 1.25 Pinnacle :D profit 0.25pts W/L: 17/4 Total staked: 21pts Profit: -0.411pts Yield: -1.96%

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    Andy Murray v Jurgen Melzer: Murray 3-1 @ 5.00 Sportsbet Mr. I is on the button about Melzer. They've met twice in the last 6 months and on both occasions Melzer took a set off him (3-1 in Davis Cup, 3-2 in US Open). Murray is clearly the better player and I can't see Melzer taking him to five again, but I do feel that he can take one set off of the Scot, a bit like Muller against Del Potro.
    Melzer had a decent chance in the 1st set, shame he couldn't take it:sad

    Heavy favourites 2009

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Heavy favourites 2009 Potentials: 1pt TSONGA v Sela @ 1.16 Pinnacle 1pt S WILLIAMS v Peng @ 1.09 Pinnacle 1pt AZARENKA v Mauresmo @ 1.33 Boylesports 1pt CIBULKOVA v Razzano @ 1.25 Pinnacle Actuals: 1pt TSONGA v Sela @ 1.16 Pinnacle 1pt AZARENKA v Mauresmo @ 1.33 Boylesports 1pt CIBULKOVA v Razzano @ 1.25 Pinnacle

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Cheers guys:ok. Another good day hitting the big dog. GONZALEZ @ 1.741 Pinnacle. This price looks pretty reasonable. Gonzalez has really impressed me here, with a 5 set win over Hewitt and a clinical win over Canas. He could be getting closeto 2007 form and I expect him to take Gasquet out here. Gasquet has come through OK so far, but mentally I'm still not totally convinced this year. I was looking for a H2H as these guys have very distinct styles and it's important how they'll match up. However, they've never played so that's no help. I think the matchup will favour Gonzalez, he has the power to rush Gasquet like Tursunov who has had good success against Gasquet. Gasquet could use his backhand well to keep Gonzalez back and off his forehand, but Gonzlalez has looked willing to rally with his slice and I think he can control a lot of the rallies. MELZER to win 1st set @ 7.00 Blue Sq. Don't normally go to this market, but I quite fancy this. Of course Murray is on another level, but this isn't a great match up. H2H is 3-0 to Murray but they've all been close and Melzer was very close to beating Murray at the US last year. Murray has improved a lot since then but still Melzer is a tricky opponent. Murray can sometimes start a bit slowly, and I expect Melzer to have a decent chance in the 1st set before Murray grinds him down. HAAS to win 1st set @ 7.00 Blue Sq. This is going to be a real test for Nadal, and I still think he can be found wanting on hard courts. Haas has been fairly impressive in his comeback here picking up a couple of easy wins and should relish a night match on a big court against Nadal. H2H is 3-0 to Nadal and all in straight sets, but I remember the meeting in Cincinatti last year, I didn't think Haas was playing well but he stepped up and played a very good match. Just like the Murray game, I think Haas has a chance to come out firing then should fade later on.

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Good night going 4-1 and close to getting the big hit on Baltacha. MULLER +7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power. Muller the Grand Slam warrior is back and is going to be difficult to get through. After his amazing run at the US, he has started another beating Lopez 16-14 in the 5th then local boy Tomic from a set down. Of course del Potro is a massive fav but maybe Muller can nick a set, and at least keep this close. Muller looks to be serving great and won't be broken very often. Del Potro has come through without being tested so far and this is going to be a big test. FERRER @ 2.45 Pinnacle. This may seem strange as I've been going against Ferrer a lot recently, but I like him here. This looks a good match up for him as he'll make a lot of balls and will draw errors from Cilic. His form has been poor but he did look a lot better against Hrbaty (admittedly Hrbaty was crap). That could be the type of match that gets his confidence back and we'll get to see the real Ferrer again. Cilic I generally think is quite over rated. His forehand is produced in a bit of a strange way and I don't like it under pressure. He's got a big game, but I think Ferrer can nullify it. WAWRINKA @ 2.51 Pinnacle. A couple of quality players here both lacking a bit of form. H2H is 3-2 to Berdych but most have been close. Both have come through OK so far, without beating much quality. From what I've seen of Berdych recently, I'm just siding with Wawrinka a bit. I'd have this very close to 50/50. SAFIN +7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power. Safin has looked pretty good so far and I expect him to step up for this one. Great memories for him of the meeting here 2005 - I don't think it'll be that close, but he should stay within 7.5. Federer has looked pretty good so far, but beating up chumps doesn't really give us an indicator of how he'll play against quality. Safin to keep this close for 3 or 4 sets. KLEYBANOVA @ 5.00 Blue Sq. Let's have a go at another big price. Ivanovic has still looked pretty shaky at times this week, and is still making too many 'easy' errors. She's going to be pressured in this match by Kleybanovas big hitting and could crack. Kleybanova is close to getting into the top 30, she has a big game and this could be her big breakthrough.

    Heavy favourites 2009

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Heavy favourites 2009 Results: Potentials: 1pt DEMENTIEVA v Rezai @ 1.14 Sportingbet :D profit 0.1428pts 1pt SAFINA v Dushevina @ 1.156 Pinnacle :D profit 0.1156pts 1pt S WILLIAMS v Errani @ 1.20 Betfair :D profit 0.19pts 1pt TSONGA v Bolelli @ 1.294 Pinnacle :D profit 0.294pts 1pt S WILLIAMS v Wonzniacki @ 1.333 Pinnacle :D profit 0.333pts 1pt TROICKI v Martin @ 1.20 VC :D profit 0.2pts 1pt WAWRINKA v Minar @ 1.20 Pinnacle :D profit 0.2pts 1pt ANDREEV v Polansky @ 1.14 Sportingbet :D profit 0.1428pts 1pt YOUZHNY v Koubek @ 1.294 Pinnacle :@ loss 1pt 1pt TSONGA v Monaco @ 1.325 Pinnacle :D profit 0.325pts 1pt SERRA v Karanusic @ 1.36 Betfair :@ loss 1pt 1pt MAURESMO v Govortsova @ 1.33 Skybet :D profit 0.3333pts 1pt ZHENG v Pin @ 1.323 Pinnacle :D profit 0.323pts 1pt STOSUR v Zakopalova @ 1.33 Will Hill :D profit 0.3333pts 1pt SAFIN v Garcia-Lopez @ 1.34 Betfair :D profit 0.323pts 1pt NALBANDIAN v Lu @ 1.10 Will Hill:@ loss 1pt 1pt WAWRINKA v Klein @ 1.10 Betfair :D profit 0.095pts 1pt KOHLSCHREIBER v Santoro @ 1.248 Pinnacle :@ loss 1pt 1pt KLEYBANOVA v Cohen Aloro @ 1.302 Pinnacle :D profit 0.302pts 1pt CORNET v Petkovic @ 1.10 Sportingbet :D profit 0.1pts 1pt HAAS v Cipolla @ 1.298 Pinnacle :D profit 0.298pts 1pt MONFILS v Koubek @ 1.206 Pinnacle :D profit 0.206pts 1pt MAURESMO v Baltacha @ 1.182 Pinnacle :D profit 0.182pts W/L: 25/4 Total staked: 29pts Profit: 1.3759pts Yield: 4.74% Actuals: 1pt SAFINA v Dushevina @ 1.156 Pinnacle :D profit 0.156pts 1pt TROICKI v Martin @ 1.20 VC :D profit 0.2pts 1pt ANDREEV v Polansky @ 1.14 Sportingbet :D profit 0.1428pts 1pt YOUZHNY v Koubek @ 1.294 Pinnacle :@ loss 1pt 1pt SERRA v Karanusic @ 1.36 Betfair :@ loss 1pt 1pt ZHENG v Pin @ 1.323 Pinnacle:D profit 0.323pts 1pt STOSUR v Zakopalova @ 1.33 Will Hill :D profit 0.3333pts 1pt SAFIN v Garcia-Lopez @ 1.34 Betfair :D profit 0.323pts 1pt NALBANDIAN v Lu @ 1.10 Will Hill :@ loss 1pt 1pt WAWRINKA v Klein @ 1.10 Betfair :D profit 0.095pts 1pt KLEYBANOVA v Cohen Aloro @ 1.302 Pinnacle :D profit 0.302pts 1pt CORNET v Petkovic @ 1.10 Sportingbet :D profit 0.1pts 1pt HAAS v Cipolla @ 1.298 Pinnacle :D profit 0.298pts 1pt MONFILS v Koubek @ 1.206 Pinnacle :D profit 0.206pts W/L: 14/3 Total staked: 17pts Profit: -0.1543pts Yield: -0.91% Not good:sad

    Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning

    Anyone think that Delic looks a spot of value tomorrow against Djokovic? Djokovic has looked very shaky to me and I think Delic has the potential to pull off the first big men's upset of the round. At 25s (Betfair) I'm having a little nibble.
    One thing to say about this is that it's Serbia v Bosnia. Quite a lot of Bosnian fans around and it could get mental:loon:loon

    Australian Open 2009 - chat thread, (in-play comments and banter)

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2009 - chat thread, (in-play comments and banter)

    I don't understand why you call Gulbis idiot ? We all know Gulbis is inconsistent. That's why I put a bet on 4 set and not on whole match. Both guys Andreev and Gulbis are inconsistent. So the best bet was over 40.5 games for example. If he were an idiot he would lose in straight sets' date= not in five.
    Over 39.5, and yes it was:dude
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