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Mr Intensity

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    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    Heh, aye. I remember in sixth form playing against somebody. First set, piece of cake, never had to get out of first gear, won it 6-0. I don't know if it was complacency, or other lad improved, or what, but although I did end up winning the match, the final score was 6-0 6-7 7-6. How do you go from coasting to victory to ending up going through 2 tiebreaks and only winning the decider 12-10 :loon Complacency is a nasty beast
    Going OT but the last singles tournament match I played was 3rd round of Northumberland Open 2001 (I think), was up 6-3 4-1* and ended up losing 6-3 4-6 6-7. Complacency sucks:sad

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    What do you think about the Chela-Vassallo match later? I thought I was going to easily side with Chela before looking at it, but now I am not so sure. First tournament in over 6 months for Chela? He lost in the 1st round here last year to Fognini. And Vassallo had a storming end to 2008 in clay challengers. That said, I can't oppose Chela and 2.15 doesn't look value for Vassallo!
    Not sure about that one either. Chela had a couple of injuries after the French last year, then took some time off to get married and played some exhibitions in October/November so not like he's just coming back from injury now. Strange first round match too going to 3 sets after taking the 1st 6-0. One to avoid IMO.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb It's dog biting time.... DECOUD @ 3.50 Stan James. Calleri got a win over Massu in the first round - the Chilean really falling away after a tight first set. But still Calleri has been on an awful run coming in and it'll take more than 1 win to convince me he's playing well again. Decoud got a good win over Fognini in the first round and this price is appealing. DABUL @ 6.40 Pinnacle. What's Tommy doing in South America? I'm not sure, he hasn't been down here apart from Davis Cup since Buenos Aires 2001. I think first match he's opposable. Dabul is a top 100 player, got a reasonable win over Junqueira in the first round and is much more accustomed to the conditions in this part of the world.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb GABASHVILI @ 3.75 Betfair. This looks pretty massive to me. Ancic was pretty awful in the first round against Lacko and just about managed to come through. Gabashvili got a nice win for me in the first round against Youzhny and I'm willing to back him again. H2H is 1-0 to Ancic easily in Rotterdam indoors last year but Gabash is the type who can put in some poor performances, so I won't read too much into that. VAN DER MEWRE @ 2.10 Pinnacle. I watched most of van der Mewres match yesterday and I was impressed. He's got a nice style for these quick courts and looked to be playing with a lot of confidence. In front of his home crowd I don't see him as the outsider here. De Chaunac looks to have started the year pretty well, but I just feel like siding with the South African.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb KARANUSIC @ 4.00 bet365. The way the Croats have been going this week, this definately looks worth a shot. Karanusic is a decent enough player, and with the crowd behind him he has a decent chance here. Mathieu is the better player, but he can have some very poor losses and I wouldn't fancy backing him at a short price here. GARCIA LOPEZ @ 1.637 Pinnacle. Don't see much in Mayers favour here. Garcia Lopez is the much better player, and got a decent win over Phau in the first round. Mayer beat clay courter Roitman in the first round, but I can't see him having much success here. BECKER @ 1.595 Pinnacle. Becker several levels above van der Merwe here. Becker won a challenger in Germany getting some decent wins on the way. He's had some shocking losing runs but when he gets some confidence up he's a quality player and I'll take him here. Van der Merwe has started the year having a go at the hard court challengers in South America without great success, and I just think he'll struggle against the quality of Becker. Only thing in his favour is playing at home. Will look into other matches tomorrow.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    off topic alittle, but im working on a system to lock in profit and/or underdog betting for the french open. can anyone inform me how a bookie minuses the rounded up odds of an event. for example if two players were 50/50 the odds should be 2.00-2.00 but the bookie rounds the % upto 105-120% so offers 1.90-190 How do they price it if its 75/25 (should be 1.50-4.00) do they take the lets say 10% from the favourite, underdog or 5% from each? cheers fig
    My answer would be that it's more complicated than that and you won't be able to do one calculation to work it out. Plus as I'm sure you're aware prices change and this is mostly to do with the weight of money on one side of the market, and the bookies want to have a balanced book.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb In all seriousness nothing to do with Sambas selection. MASSU @ 1.79 Betfair. Market has moved a bit in Massus favour and it's no surprise. As I mentioned at the Aussie Open Calleri is on a shocking run, and he hasn't actually beat a top 100 player since the start of July! I think he's really going to struggle to get it back at 32 years old and he could be close to finished. Massu too has fallen down the rankings but ranked 84 is a bit higher than I thought he was. He did fairly well in some challengers in the last 2 months of last year to get himself back in the top 100 and he took Almagro to 5 in the Aussie which isn't too bad. He has a good 13-7 record in his home event, and should be looking for a better performance than last year when he lost a tight 3 setter against Roitman. H2H is 6-2 to Calleri but all were a long time ago and quite a few on quicker surfaces where Calleri is better (2-1 on clay).

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    GIL @ 1.68 Pinnacle. I quite like Gil, and I see him as a solid fav here. He played a bit on hard courts last year, with some reasonable success (won a challenger) and I think importantly he came down for the East London tournament and did retty well making the semis. Koellerer has less success on hard courts, and doesn't show up often apart from trying (and failing) to qualify for slams. He did play Chennai this year but lost to an injured Davydenko in the first round. I think Gil's a better player anyway, and I'd have him around 1.50.
    Not sure what's going on with this one, market is dodgy as hell, Gil 1.20 when a break down:unsure

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Damn it got a crap one from Bolelli. PASHANSKI @ 2.58 Betfair. Don't think I'd have Max Gonzalez as this much of a fav. Both are ranked down in the 100's but to be hoenst I think both are better than that. Gonzalez has started the season well, winning a challenger and qualifying here, but he did have a tough 3 setter in his last qualifying match. Pashanski reached the quarters of the challenger Gonzalez won, and come through qualifying here including a comfortable win over Decoud who is decent. Overall I'd say Pashanksi is a slightly better player, he's got more experience at ATP level, but Gonzalez is in better form so I'd have Pash at around 2.20. CUEVAS @ 2.10 Skybet. Clear market move for Cuevas who opened at around 2.50. I hope everyone remembers the fun we had with him in this part of the season last year, in this tournament backing him in wins over Coria, Verdasco and Acasuso, and nearly getting a hit at a big price over Fernando Gonzalez in the semi. He struggled late on in the season but I'm hoping he can find the form again. He did OK coming through qualifying and I'm willing to have a go while I can still get odds against. Not much to say about Lapentti, he can still put in some decent performances but lacks consistancy. FOGNINI @ 1.50 Skybet. Stand out from Skybet so let's hit it! Fognini is another player I like, and he's by far the superior player here. H2H is 2-0 with a couple of easy victories on clay, and Fognini reached the quarters here last year. Only concern is that Decoud is a lucky loser, so has had a couple of matches in qualifying.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Easy winner to start the week. BOLELLI @ 1.84 Pinnacle. Everyone knows Bolelli is one of my boys and this looks like a reasonable price on him. He reached the semis here last year, played well late last year indoors, and has played OK so far this year. He's also the higher ranked and has a 2-0 H2H both indoors (quite meaningless as Troicki was much lower in the rankings) and it's add up to him being a decent fav for me. I'm not sure about Troicki at the moment, he's won some matches this year but had some pretty poor loses and some markets really move against him amidst shoulder injury rumours so he's not to be trusted at the moment. GIL @ 1.68 Pinnacle. I quite like Gil, and I see him as a solid fav here. He played a bit on hard courts last year, with some reasonable success (won a challenger) and I think importantly he came down for the East London tournament and did retty well making the semis. Koellerer has less success on hard courts, and doesn't show up often apart from trying (and failing) to qualify for slams. He did play Chennai this year but lost to an injured Davydenko in the first round. I think Gil's a better player anyway, and I'd have him around 1.50. Will look into Vina del Mar sometime tomorrow when more prices available.

    ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

    in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions

    Posted

    Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Only 1 for me tomorrow (I think). Not many prices around, but think this will settle lower. GABASHVILI @ 2.50 bet365. I backed Gabashvili @ 3.50 when these two met last October indoors in Russia and he came through a final set tiebreak. Youzhny just seems like a complete mess at the moment, with a very poor display against Koubek at the Aussie. Gabashvili hasn't started the season too well either, but he struggled early last year before playing well in this part of the season.

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