DafsT
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Posts posted by DafsT
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February - Andy Roddick -3.5 games (vs. Lleyton Hewitt) @ 1.99 [Pinnacle] (5/10) Roddick seems to do very well in the States and has done well in a tricky draw so far with wins over Berankis and Tipsarevic. Hewitt was lucky against the young Mannarino, who matched him in the opening two sets but collapsed in the third. I think Hewitt will struggle against Roddick, who is more suited to the conditions. Roddick is priced @ 4/5 to win in straight sets, so I think the handicap price is great value here. - David Nalbandian -3.5 games (vs. Tommy Robredo) @ 1.86 [Pinnacle] (5/10) Nalbandian and Robredo have cruised through the opening two rounds and match-up in the quarter-finals. Nalbandian is rightly favourite to win the tournament, and with him playing well I can't bet against him here. I think the handicap line is set correctly, and it won't be an easy win for Nalbandian despite his track record against the Spaniard, but I see him making the handicap here, be it 2 or 3 sets. - Juan Martin Del Potro -4.5 games (vs. Michael Russell) @ 1.81 [Pinnacle] (3/10) Again, both players who have won their first two matches in straight sets. Del Potro played very well against Isner and Dodig, and is beginning to get back to his best I think. He's still a little away from being 100% tournament fit and to be able to play at his peak for more than a week, but I feel that Russell is the perfect opponent for Del Potro on this surface. I think the price is a little low and it depends who serves first, but the line should be doable for the Argentine.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Was really hoping for Llodra to be around 2.4s for Soderling :@ will have to do with Evs or there abouts or just leave it alone. This week is hard to find anything appetizing, the second day I've struggled to find something worth betting on. :unsure
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February
:spank it wasn't close... +2.94 for the week.- Horacio Zeballos (vs. Juan Ignacio Chela) @ 3.04 [Pinnacle] (2/10) LOSS -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 February - Horacio Zeballos (vs. Juan Ignacio Chela) @ 3.04 [Pinnacle] (2/10) I think it's about time Chela's run goes. He scraped through Brazil to the semi-finals, edging his opponents in the first two rounds before beating an injured Bellucci and losing to eventual winner Almagro. He dropped a set to Machado yesterday, and I think Zeballos is as good a clay court player as Machado, if not better. Zeballos holds a 2-1 head-2-head record over his fellow countryman (1-1 on clay), and although he's never 100% fit, he did beat Nalbandian in his last tournament in straight sets. I see value in Zeballos here, and I think it's worth a punt.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February
+1.49 overall, Llodra missing out on the handicap by 0.5 games. +4.94 for the week, let's hope the profit continues ;)- Radek Stepanek (vs. Benjamin Becker) @ 1.546 [Pinnacle] (5/10) WIN - Adrian Mannarino -3.5 games (vs. Jan Hajek) @ 1.752 [Pinnacle] (5/10) WIN - Michael Llodra -3.5 games (vs. Julian Benneteau) @ 1.917 [Pinnacle] (5/10) LOSS -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 February
All three passed the handicap set for them, but better safe than sorry... +3.45 points to start the week for me, roll on tomorrow's matches.- Alberto Montanes (vs. Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo) x Tommy Robredo (vs. Maximo Gonzalez) x Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs. Illya Marchenko) @ 2.15 [bet365] (3/10) WIN -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 February Out of nowhere, Robredo comes back from 40-0 to set point (only his second break point of the first set) and takes the opener 7-5 :) Hopefully he can win this by handicap to please us all.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February
You've mixed things here' date=' he is playing in Memphis, Tennessee USA, not in Marseille.[/quote'] :$ Thanks for that... Llodra is at home, Mannarino is in Memphis :tongue2 -
Re: Tennis - 14-20 February - Radek Stepanek (vs. Benjamin Becker) @ 1.546 [Pinnacle] (5/10) I liked the handicap line and thought it was set right, but I wasn't quick enough to capitalize. The price is down to 1.7s somewhere, which isn't really worth the bother in my opinion and I rather take the outright victory. He's like Atko said, a nasty style match-up for Becker as he will pile pressure on the German to make shots that he doesn't usually produce. Becker will be out of his comfort zone and I think Stepanek is a dark horse this week. - Adrian Mannarino -3.5 games (vs. Jan Hajek) @ 1.752 [Pinnacle] (5/10) Mannarino in his home tournament has the chance to show France what he is capable of on the big stage. He's showing steady improvement and is climbing up the rankings nicely and with a good run two weeks ago where he reached the semis in Johannesburg, the confidence is coming across in his game. If he can establish some consistency, France might have another top 30 player with them soon. - Michael Llodra -3.5 games (vs. Julian Benneteau) @ 1.917 [Pinnacle] (5/10) It's hard to look against the defending champion here with Benneteau in such dire form. Losing in the qualifiers at Rotterdam, only played one main tour event match and that was a defeat at the hands of Starace. If he gets broken early, it will all go down hill in my opinion. His confidence must be low, there are question marks over his fitness and he doesn't look capable of stringing a good run of results here. After slating Benneteau, Llodra is in good nick himself and producing respectable results in Rotterdam such as a win over the ever unpredictable Davydenko. I think he'll clear the handicap here as they're both in contrasting form at the moment.
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Re: Tennis - 14-20 February I'm just in time for one of my picks, so I'll put it up and add the rest later on... - Alberto Montanes (vs. Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo) x Tommy Robredo (vs. Maximo Gonzalez) x Sergiy Stakhovsky (vs. Illya Marchenko) @ 2.15 [bet365] (3/10) I think this is where Montanes will kick start his 2011 campaign, and I think he's one to watch out for in this tournament. Neither guy enters Buenos Aires in sparkling form, both stuttering and losing early on in Brazil. Montanes is a superior player to Ramirez-Hidalgo, and holds a 3-1 head-2-head record (all on clay). If Montanes is with it he's in the top 20 on clay in my opinion, but his inconsistency always gets the better of him. Not confident on him by handicap so will had him to a low priced treble. Robredo has found a new lease of life it seems and is in great form at the moment. They met earlier on this year in ATP Santiago, where Robredo smashed Gonzalez 6-3, 6-1 and went on to win the tournament. I see a similar result here, but slightly closer. Might take Robredo on handicap as the match nears. Marchenko is all power and is hit and miss. He tries and end the rally by hitting power strokes all the time and appears to have no other gameplan. Stakhovsky is more steady, and better on a quick surface like the one in Memphis. He holds a 2-0 head-2-head record and is the better player in better form. The handicap is too big for me to be confident about it, but I think he will pass -4.
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13
I'm taking the same bet. I expect Verdasco to get past Raonic with the handicap as Verdasco's in great form and hasn't dropped a set this week (and passed the -3 handicap in every match). Raonic is in his first ATP final and he could come out hyped up for it, or being nervous and uptight. Should be an interesting final, one that we'll find out more about Raonic's mental make-up.My final bet for the week. (3/10) F.Verdasco (-3) to bt. M.Raonic @ 1.98 at Pinnacle This looks like a good line. Verdasco is riding on a wave on confidence and he already beat a huge server in Ivo Karlovic. The Croat then played an exhibition and beat Milos Raonic in two tie-breaks. Without a doubt, Verdasco is the player that will dominate the rallies. The only question is whether he can cope with the huge serve Raonic has. And I think he can. He had to face some big servers already and should continue his run here. The title is for taking here. -
Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Thanks for the Crolla tip Superfoo... Took it in shop, great job :ok
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13
Can't see any bets today chaps. Ljubicic line did interest me but he had a long game yesterday while Tsonga was free' date=' so I fear the Croat could be a little fatigued. +3 would have been more appealing but I fear a 7-6 6-4 score. One for braver souls than me. Good luck to all that play :ok[/quote'] This. Sit back, enjoy the tennis and pat yourself on the back if you made a profit :ok -
Re: 2011 Boxing Thread
Troy Ross is much better than Enad Licina. Licina is a spoiler type fighter for a cruiserweight, but he struggles with boxers that can move their feet (Hernandez, Godfrey)... Cunningham is aging and inactive, so the temptation would be there to bet against him if it was Huck, Ross or Levedev. I think he should comfortably beat Licina on points. Herelius is very awkward and tries to jab his way to victory... Hernandez has the height and reach advantage I believe, so that gameplan might be out of the question, and with the doubts over Hernandez's chin, he'll be more wary than usual coming up against a guy considered heavy handed. I'm not overly impressed by either guy's power though, even if Hernandez blasted Ismailov out in 1. Both chins are fragile, Hernandez more suspect than Herelius. I can't see Herelius getting a decision, which leaves Hernandez by a tentative decision.Dafs - Quite like your bets. Agree with the Cunnungham despite his struggle and somewhat luckiness against Ross. As for Hernandez I guess that would be my first choice but his chin seems very suspect but that could serve well to the purpose as he may be reluctant to get too involved. add to the fact that Herelius is awkward. That said with what I have seen of his chin I was looking at 6s for a shock Herelius stoppage. -
Re: 2011 Boxing Thread
Taken a similar bet, but with Ramos/Valdez over 8.5 @ Evs instead of Decaire > Alvarez... @ 2.89 Also gone for Hernandez by decision @ 7/4 [sportingbet] (4/10) and Cunningham by decision @ 8/11 [sportingbet] (10/10)... I'll have to reason in a more sober state tomorrow morning.Eddie Chambers v Derek Rossy Chambers comes back from his devastating last round ko from Klitschko in a rematch against Derek Rossy. When they met previously 4 years ago Rossy was undefeated in 14 and showed inexperience in blasting away at gloves before gassing and dominated culminating in him being stopped in the 7th . I think Rossy is more experienced and improved fighter since that defeat. This being Chambers first fight since that heavy ko, I expect him to take a couple of rounds to feel out his opponent. With Chambers not being the biggest hitting heavyweight and Rossy on the whole having a decent chin I think this will be going into the second half, that’s if Rossy doesn’t make the same mistakes again. Alvarez v Decarie I like Decaire in this one. He seems a confident and likeable guy. He is a busy puncher with good technique and can box well behind the jab but he lacks power. Alvarez was touted as a decent prospect but fell easily enough to Josha Clottey when stepped up. He has won 2 lost 2 since, it could be argued that his calibre of opposition has been a little better than that of his opponent. Home ground in Montreal for Decaroe could prove to be a key factor as well if there are some close rounds. Chambers v Rossy +6.5 4/9 Bet365 Decarie bt Alvarez 5/9 Bet365 Recommended bet 20pts Double @2.25 -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13
Both coped extremely well under hostile conditions, with Dolgopolov producing a fine performance routing Mello, with Almagro having a harder time dealing with Chela but eventually coming through. The final is a tough one too call. Pre-tournament I would have backed Almagro, but Dolgopolov has played some very good tennis this week and might have swayed it.- Nicolas Almagro (vs. Juan Ignacio Chela) x Alexandr Dolgopolov (vs. Ricardo Mello) @ 2.25 [stan James] (4/10)WIN - Nicolas Almagro to win by 2-0 @ 2.30 [unibet] (2/10) LOSS -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13
That first set was dire... It's rare to see someone (Chela) win a set without hitting a great shot. Close third set so far.Meh Almagro :@ Turn it around man! On a positive note though, Dolgopolov would definitely be the favorite (in my book) against Chela. -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13
It would have won :lol Let's hope Dolgopolov and Almagro bring some return...DafsT: Maybe you do not regret it now? ;) michal: That match can go either way, seriously. Personally, I can see some value on Cilic, but definitely not enough to play. -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13
Haha money well saved :rollinDafsT: Maybe you do not regret it now? ;) michal: That match can go either way, seriously. Personally, I can see some value on Cilic, but definitely not enough to play. -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13
Good hold for Youznhy, regretting not taking the handicap now. I see signs of the Soderling of old coming back, the one that struggled mentally and couldn't keep a consistent high level of tennis going for a long period of time.Am tempted by Youznhy on handicap against Soderling, but the head-2-head doesn't look too good. -
Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Here's my lot from Brazil... Am tempted by Youznhy on handicap against Soderling, but the head-2-head doesn't look too good. - Nicolas Almagro (vs. Juan Ignacio Chela) x Alexandr Dolgopolov (vs. Ricardo Mello) @ 2.25 [stan James] (4/10) - Nicolas Almagro to win by 2-0 @ 2.30 [unibet] (2/10) I'd be very surprised if Almagro doesn't win against Chela. He's a great clay court player and hasn't been out of first gear this week with straight forward wins over Souza and Machado where he didn't look troubled. I haven't been impressed at all with Chela, who's somehow ended up in the semi-finals after two three-set battles early on in the tournament and was rather fortunate to face an injured Bellucci yesterday. I think Almagro will win, and go on to win the tournament. Dolgopolov has cruised through the draw so far with two straight set victories. The way he handled the pressure points against Starace was impressive, breaking when he had to and fending off Starace when the Italian had the chance to break. He looks very comfortable on clay and has made the transition from hard court to clay court easily. Mello is playing well, but I feel that Dolgopolov has another gear in him if he needs it. I get the feeling that Mello has to win the opening set to make it a game.
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Sergio Mora x Jason Booth by decision 10 pts Bet365 @ 2.30 Sergio Mora (22-1-2, 6 KO) is a much better boxer than Bryan Vera (17-5, 11 KO) and in my opinion, will be way too slick for the journeyman. In his last fight, Mora drew with Shane Mosley, who faces pound-4-pound king Manny Pacquiao in his next fight. He's also been 1-1 with the late Vernon Forrest. Vera's wins come against up and coming prospects like Sebastian Demers and Andy Lee. Mora is seasoned, and although disliked because of his boring style, is a very good fighter. Jason Booth (35-6, 15 KO) to cruise to a decision against Jamie Arthur (18-4, 4 KO), and the only other possible outcome I can see is the fight stopped on cuts in Booth's favour. Arthur is more about heart and determination than ability and skills. He'll come forward, but the superior boxing ability of Booth should see this through in a relatively entertaining contest.
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread
Bradley by decision covers technical decision as well on SportingBet, right?:beer +10pts. -
Re: Snooker: World Snooker Shootout One thing that I've found profitable (but did it on very small stakes and to keep interest in the tournament) in this format is in-play betting... When a player is at the table and has made a break of 20 and the next shot looks difficult, you back the player that's in his seat at around 2/1... When the other player gets his chance and starts climbing back to the lead, you back the one sitting down at around the same odds and are guaranteed a profit. Obviously, this doesn't work that often as the players get used to the format. I backed Mark Selby in this because of his pool background. But really its a lucky dip.
Tennis - 14-20 February
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: Tennis - 14-20 February
Not the best of days, and not the best of weeks... -2.57 for the day, but still in a small profit for the week +0.37 with the Nalbandian bet pending...