Leadbelly
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Posts posted by Leadbelly
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Re: USA MLS September 23rd-26th 2010 Doh! Looks like Ching might be on the bench, which is good for my main bet, but crap for my fun bet (will have to look up the rules to see what happens with it).
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Re: USA MLS September 23rd-26th 2010 I wasn't too sure which match I was gonna have a bet on tonight, but since Setup has had a bet on the Dallas v New England game I guess I'll have a bet on the other one! Kansas City Wizards v Houston Dynamo Kansas City (30 points and 4th in the Eastern Conf) take on Houston (23 points and 8th in the Western Conf) tonight. Kansas with games in hand have a decent chance of making the play-offs, but for Houston the season is in effect already over. Kansas City's record for the past five games is 3W 1D 1L and have just finished a 3 game road trip which yielded a very profitable seven points. So they're a team in form and they haven't got any serious injury worries. I think my point still stands from their last match that they'll lack a striker - Bunbury scored a nice goal against Chivas and you'd think he would get the nod tonight, but I'm sure they're looking forward to Omar Bravo joining them next season. Houston's record for the past five games is 1W 0D 4L.The last game at home to Toronto was a real kick in the teeth for them - lots of possession and some might even say they dominated the game (admittedly against a Toronto also in poor form), but they were just toothless up front and that was with Ching back in the side. The only time they look dangerous is at set-pieces with some nice delivery from Mulrooney and Davis. As always Unders is tempting, but going for Kansas -0.75AH at 2.025 with Bet365. Putting my faith in Kamara and Smith to deliver the goods for Kansas, and a deflated Houston's defence to continue their impression of a colander! Couple of fun bets as well Ching FGS / Houston win at 16 and Diop FGS at 17. Don't need to say a lot about Ching, but he's roughly scored a goal every other game during his career and is always a target at set-pieces. As regards Diop, he might not even be on the bench (with Bet365 if anyone scores before he comes on I'll get the stake back), but I can see him coming off the bench if they're needing a goal late on at 0-0. Both bets with Bet365
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th
Chivas 0-2 Kansas City Wizards Oh well. So much for going for the win and attacking football! Turgid first half and Chivas only managed one shot on goal in the entire match. I guess if you play football like that you don't deserve to be in the play-offs (and Chivas need a miracle now to make it). Decent weekend overall though (thanks to Mr. Wondalowski !), probably back Wednesday for one of the two games then.Pick time. Going for Both Team to Score at 1.90 with Bet365. Not sure if a draw is good enough for either side (maybe for Kansas) so we should see some attacking football. Kansas should create some chances with the pace and delivery of Smith and Kamara on the wings (Chivas struggled against the pace of Cummings against Colorado) and hopefully the blossoming partnership of Braun and Gordon can continue to flourish. -
Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th Chivas USA v Kansas City Wizards Chivas USA (25 points and 7th in the Western Conf) take on Kansas City Wizards (27 points and 4th in the Eastern Conf) tonight, both with games in hand on Seattle (the team in the last play-off spot) and needing points to catch them. The Goat's record for the past five games is 2W 1D 2L (both wins at home) and they're just off the back of a win against their "parent" club Chivas Guadalajara. Admittedly it was by a penalty shoot out, but they created a lot of chances and on another day would have won easily in normal time. The partnership of Braun and Gordon has certainly improved over the past couple of games (in contrast to the 0-0 against Seattle in August). Got a few guys who are doubtful with injurys, but I wouldn't be surprised if they drag themselves off the treatment table to play. Kansas City's record for the past five games is 2W 2D 1L and have only lost one of their past nine games and that was away to San Jose 1-0 where Bunbury missed several chances and they had 3 (i think) goals ruled out for offside. Kansas City's problem as far as I see it, is the lack of a proven goalscorer in their 451/433 formation. They were using Bunbury, but recenly Diop has been starting and he's been a bit more successful. Pick time. Going for Both Team to Score at 1.90 with Bet365. Not sure if a draw is good enough for either side (maybe for Kansas) so we should see some attacking football. Kansas should create some chances with the pace and delivery of Smith and Kamara on the wings (Chivas struggled against the pace of Cummings against Colorado) and hopefully the blossoming partnership of Braun and Gordon can continue to flourish.
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th 1-0 at halftime :ok Winning bet, but more than a bit lucky. Last minute penalty after a pretty banal first half - only one other good chance which Finley lobbed over the bar (couple of good long range efforts as well from either side). Phew!
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th Teams RSL: Rimando - Wingert Borchers Olave Beltran - Johnson Beckerman Williams Grabavoy - Saborio Findley Fire: Johnson - Robinson Brown Conde Segares - Ristic Pause Ljungberg Pappa - John Castillo So some of the injured are playing for RSL. In that case going for RSL to be winning at halftime at 2.37 with Bet365. Midweek game coming up for them in Panama and I'm sure the coach would love to be able to rest some guys in the second half (and I'll only have to watch the first 45 !)
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th Real Salt Lake v Chicago Fire Real Salt Lake (44 points and 2nd in the Western Conf) take on Chicago Fire (26 points and 5th in the Eastern Conf) tonight. Quite an injury headache for RSL, but they still go into the game as big favourites. RSL's record for the past five league games is 2W 3D 0L. They've also been playing in the CCL recently losing away to Cruz Azul and winning at home to Toronto and with more games coming up quickly now is not the time for a spate of injurys. Morales in suspended and there are injurys to Espindola, Findley, Saborio and a few others (but the ones named are all attacking players). The question is, whether they will play or not? Their status has been changing a bit since yesterday - Espindola from not playing to questionable and Saborio from questionable to probable. Last game away to Seattle finished 0-0 when Espindola wasn't playing and Findley (who missed a penalty) was carrying his injury. Chicago Fire's record for the past five games is 0W 2D 3L, not the time to go on a poor run and their play-off hopes look slim to none (7 points behind the last qualifying spot). Ljungberg has looked decent since joining - set up all three goals in the 4-3 defeat to Houston, but Castillo is taking longer to settle. Defensively in the past couple of games they've tightened things up, but they look susceptible to crosses / corners, whether RSL can take advantage of this or not might depend on who's playing. The obvious bet is Unders, but that's dropped from 1.9 yesterday down to 1.75 today. So probably not too much value left there. What I'm gonna do is to wait for team news and pick a bet from there. If the players with injurys are playing I might go for RSL to be winning at halftime, if they're on the bench I might wait till halftime and see what's happening and if they don't play at all maybe Under 1.5 or Chicago on the AH might be the bet.
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th
Well I could make excuses about injurys to Hernandez and Hartman (Henry caused it in a goal celebration !) and the red card for Shea in the 29th minute, but it looked like it might have been going overs anyway from the brief highlights I've watched. NY coach did drop Angel after all for the extra body in midfield.Time for a pick. My advice is no bet! Not gonna follow my own advice though, gone for Under 2.25 at 1.925 with Bet365. Can't see Dallas changing things too much tactically and their five in midfield should be able to control things (especially if Marquez is carrying a knock). I'm wondering if the NY coach wishes he could drop Henry or Angel to put an extra body in the midfield.
Nope! Will probably have a look tomorrow and might do a write up then. RSL do have something to play for though - they'd want to win the Supporters' Shield (team with most points in the regular season), guarantee finishing in the top 2 in their conference (so that they're seeded for the play-offs) and protect their long unbeaten home run (which stretches back to June 2009).Any thoughts Leadbelly? -
Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th Well that was annoying. Had got about halfway through my Dallas v NY preview, went away to do something else and when I came back the PC had crashed! Anyway thanks Rick (P'dude)! Had a quick look at the highlights and it didn't look the most inspiring of games, not a huge amount of good chances for either side,but Philadelphia were unlucky not to get a penalty in the very last minute. Think it was Mapp who got completely cleaned out when dummying a ball in the box - referee is 5 yards away and gives nothing. Not that I'm complaining. FC Dallas v New York Red Bulls FC Dallas (41 points and 3rd in the Western Conf) take on New York Red Bulls (40 points and 2nd in the Eastern Conf) tonight. Should be an interesting game, if tough to predict. Doesn't take Einstein to see that FC Dallas are doing well this season. Results from the last five games are 3W 2D 0L with just the 1 goal conceded and if that's not impressive enough - they are on an unbeaten 14 game run, have won the last 6 home games in a row and have only lost twice all season (to LA and NY). So it should be a home win? Maybe not, their last 4 games have all been very tight close affairs with Hartman having to save their bacon on quite a few occasions and they looked a bit suspect in the Toronto game to throw ins and set pieces (where NY are strong). New York's record for the past five game is 3W 0D 2L which includes some very good performances especially against San Jose and their last game against Colorado. Henry is starting to look back to somewhere approaching the levels we know he can reach - some nice flicks, passes and even a couple of goals. The two defeats though came against RSL and LA Galaxy, two of the better sides in the league and this has been the pattern (generally) so far this season - they do well at home or against "lesser" sides, but poorly away or against "better" sides. Team news is that Marquez is carrying an ankle injury, but is expected to play. Not sure if new signing Bellouchy will make his debut after joining from Colorado. Time for a pick. My advice is no bet! Not gonna follow my own advice though, gone for Under 2.25 at 1.925 with Bet365. Can't see Dallas changing things too much tactically and their five in midfield should be able to control things (especially if Marquez is carrying a knock). I'm wondering if the NY coach wishes he could drop Henry or Angel to put an extra body in the midfield.
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Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th
San Jose 1 - 0 Philadelphia :ok Haven't watched the highlights yet so can't comment on the game itself, but the Unders bet came in and it was Wandalowski who popped up with the goal.San Jose Earthquake v Philadelphia Union Anyway I can see it being a tight game and I am backing Under 2.25 at 1.9 with Bet365, the only risk I see is Geovanni - if he turns it on, there could be goals. Also a couple of side bets for fun Wondalowski FGS / San Jose win at 13 and Le Toux FGS / Philly win at 15. Both guys are their respective teams top scorers and especially if Stephenson and Mwanga don't play I feel these are decent odds. Both bets with Bet365 -
Re: USA MLS September 16th - 20th San Jose Earthquake v Philadelphia Union San Jose (33 points and 6th in the Western Conf) take on Philadelphia (24 points and 6th in the Eastern Conf) tonight with both teams in decent form and with sights on maybe making the play-offs (San Jose have the easier run in and will probably get there, but I'd be surprised if Philly make it). San Jose's record for the past five games is 3W 1D 1L which is pretty good, but they haven't been tearing up trees by any means. Their last game against Dallas was a bit of a bore - a good defensive job against a team on a long unbeaten run, but not many shots on goal and they missesd Stephenson who has looked good since joining from Aalesunds. Before that against Houston away they got a 2-1 win, but Houston dominated for long periods and only Ching being injured probably prevented Houston getting a draw at least. Looking further back they got a bit lucky against LA with Ricketts in goal making a howler to give them the win. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that San Jose don't score a lot (or concede a lot). They have brought in Geovanni (from Hull) and Stephenson (who is still recovering from his injury and might not play tonight) to try and be a bit more creative, but a side effect of this is that Wondalowski their top scorer has been shunted out to play on the wing, which to me doesn't make too much sense. Philadelphia's record for the past five games is 2W 2D 1L which is probably their best form of the season, however we can't escape the fact that their record away from home is pretty poor. A lot of their problems have been down to defensive mistakes/goalkeeping howlers/naivety. The game against DC United is a good example - they had lots of the play (against the worst team in the league), but two mistakes from Califf and Nakizawa led to conceding goals and losing the match. However possibly a corner has been turned - after the Kansas game where error prone Seitz (GK) was at fault for the equalizing goal, the coach decided enough was enough and gave Knighton a chance in the nets and of course the next game they recorded their first clean sheet ever, against Chicago Fire (including Ljungberg and Castillo). I don't think they've turned into George Graham's Arsenal overnight, but it's a step in the right direction. Team news is that Mwanga's shoulder injury isn't as bad as feared, but may not be risked tonight. Anyway I can see it being a tight game and I am backing Under 2.25 at 1.9 with Bet365, the only risk I see is Geovanni - if he turns it on, there could be goals. Also a couple of side bets for fun Wondalowski FGS / San Jose win at 13 and Le Toux FGS / Philly win at 15. Both guys are their respective teams top scorers and especially if Stephenson and Mwanga don't play I feel these are decent odds. Both bets with Bet365
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Thursday 16 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP 
San Jose Earthquakes v Philadelphia Union (03:00 BST) 2.14 3.45 4 100.71 % Friday 17 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP FC Dallas v Red Bull New York (02:00 BST) 2.32 3.4 3.5 101.09 % Saturday 18 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Real Salt Lake v Chicago Fire (21:00 BST) 1.69 3.58 5.5 105.13 % Sunday 19 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Columbus Crew v Seattle Sounders (00:30 BST) 1.66 3.75 5.61 104.49 % Houston Dynamo v Toronto FC (01:30 BST) 2.17 3.47 3.25 105.46 % Colorado Rapids v New England Revolution (02:00 BST) 1.69 3.58 5 106.95 % Los Angeles Galaxy v DC United (03:30 BST) 1.5 3.95 6.62 107.09 % Monday 20 September 2010 Home Draw Away BPP Chivas USA v Kansas City Wizards (01:00 BST) 1.92 3.47 3.75 107.41 % -
Re: Copa Libertadores July 28th-29th RE: Washington Just found out he signed for Flu yesterday (so definitely not playing tonight), will be interesting to see if he gets a game there.
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Re: Copa Libertadores July 28th-29th Internacional Vs. Sao Paolo Probable line-ups Internacional - Abbondanzieri, Nei, BolÃvar, Ãndio e Kleber; Sandro, Guiñazu, Giuliano (Wilson Matias), D'Alessandro e Taison; Alecsandro Sao Paolo - Rogério Ceni, Miranda, Alex Silva e Richarlyson (Xandão); Jean, Rodrigo Souto, Hernanes, Marlos e Junior Cesar; Dagoberto e Fernandão Surprised more people aren't having a bet on the big game tonight. Anyway Sao Paolo have been in poor form since the league restarted after the World Cup (0W 1D 3L) and did not look good in the two games that I saw some parts of (Avai and Vitoria). Defensively they looked a bit shaky (a few goals conceded from crosses). No Washington in the starting XI either :cry Meanwhile Internacional are at the opposite end of the spectrum with four straight wins since the WC break. Saw a little bit of their game at the weekend against Fla, but they were fielding a mainly reserve side so not much can be read into the performance that I saw. Can see it being a tight game, but going for Internacional at 1.98 with Betfair
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Re: Brazil Serie A July 17th-18th 2010 Ouch, two late goals for Avai ruin the bet. Palmeiras only have themselves to blame though. A man advantge for most of the second half and tons of possesion, but they lacked any real drive to go and get the winner - the midfield looked very poor. Big Phil has a big job to do (and I don't mean he needs to go to the toilet :rollin).
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Re: Brazil Serie A July 17th-18th 2010 Avai vs. Palmeiras Both teams coming off the back of very good wins, Avai away to Sao Paolo and Palmeiras beating Santos in Scolari's first game back, but before these games their form has been very sketchy. Team news for Palmeiras is that Marcos is still out after surgery on his knee and Danilo is suspended. Avai keep the same line-up from their Sao Paolo game. To me the difference might be Scolari himself, he's been around the block a few times, knows what to do and Palmeiras should still be under the influence of new manager syndrome. Taking Palmerias 0AH at 2.13 with Betfair
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Re: Brazil Serie A July 17th-18th 2010 Good game last night between Vitoria and Sao Paolo - just missed out on my draw bet, but the result was probably the fair one. Washington got on near the end, but only seemed to moan at the ref.
any team news on the flu an flam clubs ' date=' i say santos will be a hard match for flu, but feel flam might just get the win they need to get back in the race[/quote'] Probable line-ups Santos - Rafael; Maranhão (Alex Sandro), Edu Dracena, Durval e Pará; Arouca, Wesley, Paulo Henrique Ganso e Robinho; Neymar e André Fluminense - Fernando Henrique, Mariano, Gum, André Luis (Leandro Euzébio) e Carlinhos; Diogo, Diguinho, Marquinho e Conca; Alan e Fred. Atletico GO - Marcio, Dida, Gilson, Welton Felipe e Chiquinho; Agenor, Pituca, Robston e Elias; Juninho e Tiuà Flamengo - Marcelo Lomba, Leonardo Moura, Welinton, Ronaldo Angelim e Juan; Willians, Correa, Kleberson e Petkovic; Diego Mauricio e VinÃcius Pacheco -
Re: Brazil Serie A July 17th-18th 2010 What's happened to Washington Bagzi? Is he injured or is he just not a regular starter this year? Have to say he's one of my favourite players from Serie A. Leaning towards the draw myself. I noticed the long winning streak that Sao Paolo have Victoria as well, but I don't feel they're quite firing on all cylinders so far this year and Victoria have a decent home record over the past few games. Anyway backing the Draw at 3.65 with Betfair
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Re: Russia Premier League July 17th-19th 2010 Spartak Moscow vs. Rubin Kazan Neither side in super-duper form, but Spartak look to be in a worse position. Two league defeats in a row and an unconvincing midweek cup victory have put a bit of pressure on Karpin, and if my google translation can be trusted he's missing his top scorer Welliton (7 goals in 11 games) who was injured in the cup game. I can see them having problems breaking down Rubin's stingy defence (1 goal conceded in their 5 away games). I believe also that the allegedly 25 year old Obafemi Martins has signed for Rubin, but can't play till after 1st August. Anyway backing Rubin 0AH at 2.03 with Betfair
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July
Good thinking. My knowledge of Azeri, Polish, Estonian and Hungarian football is slim to none (and Slim just left town), but on paper the away teams in both matches are the stronger. Now I'm thinking this might be counter-balanced by the home advantage, the hot weather and in Levadia Tallinn's case by the fact that they're well into their season (no first game of the season rustiness). So my limited knowledge leads me to thinking that they're gonna both be tight, low scoring games. However I'm going for the draw in each match. Both with Betfair. Inter Baku v Lech Pozan Draw at 3.45 Levadia Tallinn v Debrecen Draw at 3.45Just a little one of my theories for today as I don't know a great deal about the sides. I'm going for two under 2.5 bets in two matches today, simply because both the visitors are strong favourites to qualify from their matches however they will not want to run the risk of losing the first leg, home sides will probably both look to keep a clean sheet because it could be massive for them to score at visitors ground, away sides will be happy with 0-0 as they'll be confident of beating their opponents on home turf. I don't see many goals in these matches today for the simple reasons above, of course we don't want to see early goals as that changes matches. Levadia Tallinn v Debrecen - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 & 0-0 @ 10 Inter Baku v Lech Pozan - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 & 0-0 @ 9.6 Betfair. -
Re: USA MLS July 9th-12th 2010
Half a win with the score finishing 1-1 :ok Didn't see the game, but it looks like the sending off for Seattle was the turning point of the match. Just looking at the stats - the attendance was over 36000! Bit of a surprise to me. I'd always had the impression most attendances in the MLS were in the 10-20k range, but to get that number maybe shows the league is progressing in the right direction.Seattle Sounders vs. Dallas Getting towards make or break time for Seattle if they have any aspirations to qualify for the play-offs, but they are not in good form. They did record a 2-0 victory midweek against LA in the Cup but as far as I can make out both sides were playing mainly reserves and back up players, whereas in the league they have one win in six and have conceded nine goals in the last three matches. Injuries have played a part in this slump and although some of them have returned or are close to returning, they'll still be without Evans and Hurtado and both Ljungberg and Alonso are "questionable". Dallas seem to be in a much better situation. Only two defeats all season (to LA and NY - two of the better MLS sides) and on a current winning streak of three which should mean that they're full of confidence. No real injury probelms either for Dallas, the only absence that I can find is the back-up keeper Sala. Anyway going for Dallas +0.25 AH at 2.03 -
Re: USA MLS July 9th-12th 2010 Seattle Sounders vs. Dallas Getting towards make or break time for Seattle if they have any aspirations to qualify for the play-offs, but they are not in good form. They did record a 2-0 victory midweek against LA in the Cup but as far as I can make out both sides were playing mainly reserves and back up players, whereas in the league they have one win in six and have conceded nine goals in the last three matches. Injuries have played a part in this slump and although some of them have returned or are close to returning, they'll still be without Evans and Hurtado and both Ljungberg and Alonso are "questionable". Dallas seem to be in a much better situation. Only two defeats all season (to LA and NY - two of the better MLS sides) and on a current winning streak of three which should mean that they're full of confidence. No real injury probelms either for Dallas, the only absence that I can find is the back-up keeper Sala. Anyway going for Dallas +0.25 AH at 2.03
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Re: USA MLS July 9th-12th 2010
One of those annoying games where Philly dominated and had many more chances but Busch had a great game in nets for the Earthquakes and they were made to pay for their profligacy with two sucker punch goals from the three or four attacks that San Jose managed. (Roger Torres was at fault for the second :lol). Another day it might have been a big win for Philly, but overall I would say that they were quite "naive" - maybe something to bear in mind for their future games.Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes The great thing about the MLS is that the Americans are stat crazy. It's not usually that difficult to find some nugget of info that you can use to convince yourself that your pick is sound. Anyway I think the Union are in with a decent chance of victory tonight - 11 points from 12 games might suggest otherwise, but they've been on the road more often than the Littlest Hobo recently, only three of the twelve games have been at their home ground where they haven't lost (2W 1D). San Jose meanwhile seem to be on a bit of down slope. After a great start to the season they seem to have hit the buffers and haven't won in five. Team news that I've managed to find is that Nakazawa is out for the Union and Andre Luiz and Beitashour are missing for San Jose. None of the three seem to have had much game time recently though, so it's debatable whether any of them will be missed. One guy to maybe watch out for though is Roger Torres, don't think he will be starting but was quite impressed with him when I saw him earlier in the season. Anyway backing Philadelphia at 2.24
Well I was right about LA struggling to break the Revs down, but like many I didn't see NE scoring two goals. Big surprise considering LA had only conceded one on the road so far this season. The lesson to learn from this is not to be too greedy.Got to be very quick as the match is about to kick off. Donovan doesn't play, not even on the bench. Yeah NE Revs have been playng awful, especially a 5-0 drubbing in the last game - can see them going defensive and LA struggling to break them down. Had more to say, but no time. Unders 1.5 at 3.45 -
Re: USA MLS July 9th-12th 2010 Got to be very quick as the match is about to kick off. Donovan doesn't play, not even on the bench. Yeah NE Revs have been playng awful, especially a 5-0 drubbing in the last game - can see them going defensive and LA struggling to break them down. Had more to say, but no time. Unders 1.5 at 3.45
USA MLS September 23rd-26th 2010
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Re: USA MLS September 23rd-26th 2010
Kansas City Wizards 4-3 Houston Dynamo :ok (half a winner) Phew! Kansas come back from two goals down to score a winner in the 97th minute. Both fun bets were losers. Well done on your pick Setup!