Leadbelly
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Re: Cycling 2013 Prices are up for Omloop-Het Nieuwsblad and there are a lot of potential winners. Unfortunately there's not too many prices that jump out, but maybe some will drift out before the book closes on Saturday morning. I will have a couple of bets though on a pair of guys in decent shape. Stybar (41 ew with Bet365) has had a great season so far. 12th overall in both Qatar and Oman (in particular in Oman he was very impressive on the hilly parcour, could have finished higher if not for having to wait for Velits on Green Mountain). Normally his price would have been much shorter in this sort of form, but he rides for OPQS who have Terpstra, Chavanel and Boonen (who is talking down his own chances) so he might be forced to do some donkey work later on in the race - which would be a shame. Got a very good kick and hopefully his CX background will put in him good stead for the weather conditions that are forecast (very cold and windy). Kristoff (101 ew with Bet365) has had a similarly decent start to the year with 5 top ten spots already. He's still pretty young, but he's a decent semi-classics sort of guy on top of being a 2nd/3rd tier sprinter - 15th at RVV last year, 3rd at the Olympics, good performance at Three Days of De Panne. Should have the support of his team, only other rider who might contend is Paolini and he doesn't seem to be in much shape. Looking forward to this - the more hellish the conditions, the better!
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Re: Cycling 2013
I'll tell you after I've made my bets later in the week. :p But seriously, I was looking at the starters (though the list isn't confirmed yet) on cyclingfever and there are lots of guys looking in good form or look to be coming into good form. The four that are down so far for OPQS could all win it (though Tommeke will want the win - it's one he's never had), there's three or four names at Blanco that jump out, four at BMC, a few at Sky as you mention and there's other random guys that you could add to that list - Pozatto, Haussler, Flecha. If you then add in the guys then that maybe haven't shown the form yet, but who you know have performed in races like this before - then the list is getting 20+ strong. As always it will depend on the price.Re Het Nieuwsblad - I was wondering who you think are looking good this year? -
Re: Cycling 2013
First profit of the season (though I was half expecting to get a message from Bet365 saying the bet was void due to some error - the price had come in from 67 last night to 17 this morning when I checked). Just saw the highlights, and a very strong third place for Westra. Looked very comfortable sitting in the main grp of favourites (Henao, Rui Costa and Machado had gone up the road a little) and then attacked very strongly within the last km (just like on Mende) to nab third.Been some great racing in Oman, just wish we could have seen it live instead of reading about it on twitter. Volta ao Algarve is also on at the moment and tomorrow's stage looks quite tasty. The finish is the same as the stage last year where Richie Porte won (though the rest of the stage is slightly different) - very rolling countryside and the finish is on Malhao. Quite a few candidates for the the win - several Sky riders, a couple of Portuguese and a couple of Dutchies. Westra (67 ew with Bet365) is the name and price that jumps out to me. He's got previous on finishes similar to this (see PN last year on Mende), got a good kick and has a couple of races already this year under the belt. The price is too big to resist. Martin, Kloden and Menchov (you could even maybe stick De Gendt in there) are all shorter odds which is just craziness. -
Re: Cycling 2013 Memo to self - Phinney isn't quite light/good enough to get over those steeper bumps just yet. Been some great racing in Oman, just wish we could have seen it live instead of reading about it on twitter. Volta ao Algarve is also on at the moment and tomorrow's stage looks quite tasty. The finish is the same as the stage last year where Richie Porte won (though the rest of the stage is slightly different) - very rolling countryside and the finish is on Malhao. Quite a few candidates for the the win - several Sky riders, a couple of Portuguese and a couple of Dutchies. Westra (67 ew with Bet365) is the name and price that jumps out to me. He's got previous on finishes similar to this (see PN last year on Mende), got a good kick and has a couple of races already this year under the belt. The price is too big to resist. Martin, Kloden and Menchov (you could even maybe stick De Gendt in there) are all shorter odds which is just craziness.
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Re: Cycling 2013 Wasn't planning on having any bets on the Tour of Oman as there's no live coverage (you even have to wait till the next day for highlights), but I couldn't resist this bet for stage 2. Phinney (41 ew with Bet365) is looking very strong already this season (OT: he'll be challenging Martin very seriously this year). Not just in terms of his TT which has always been his strong point, but suddenly he's contesting sprints (an 8th and 5th in Qatar where he was mainly leading out Blythe, but also a 6th today where he was just working for himself). The sticking point might the short climb about 5 km from the finish, but I think it's the same climb they used in the TT a couple of years ago - I think as a TTer he should be able to power up it (or at least not lose much and be able to TT back to the group before the finish) and hopefully some of the sprinters will be left behind
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Re: Cycling 2013 Bit of a shame that Wellens was a victim of the heat, a top ten might have been on for him. Onto the Tour of Qatar. First stage is on Sunday and this year there's no Tommeke to defend his title. Don't have the foggiest what's happening as regards the weather, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise for wind to play a part in deciding the GC. The TTT could play a part, but the gaps made there aren't likely to be that big - maybe 10-20 secs. Winner is likely to be a sprinter (bonus seconds), or a strong classics type guy with a bit of a kick. First pick is Breschel (101 ew with Bet365). This is a really nice price I feel. It's his first race of the year, but he's left Rabo over the winter and is back with Riis at Saxo where he had much success in the past. He could lose 15-20 secs in the TT, but if he's got his race legs he could do well if the race starts breaking up on a windy day. Could pick up bonus seconds from a reduced group. Secondly Offredo (201 ew with Bet365). Missed nearly almost all of last year due to a suspension, but one of the races he did compete in was this one, and I remember him finishing very strongly in one of the deciding stages. Was a shame he missed last year, as in the previous years before that he had shown some real promise with some good results in the big classic races. Again might lose a bit in the TTT. In fact, although it's too late for me as I've made the bets, if you are following them it might be better to wait till after the TTT as you might get better odds.
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Re: Cycling 2013 The TDU starts on Tuesday morning at some ungodly hour. Here's a
and there are links on that page to the other five. Similar to last year the ascent of Old Willunga on stage 5 will play an important part, but stage 2 will also have an effect on the overall - an ascent of Corkscrew Road (some steep ramps) followed by a quick descent to the finish. Also, like last year, time bonuses will no doubt play a part, so look for punchy guys with sprints. Obviously form is a bit of an unknown at the this time of year and I'm not sure if the weather in Adelaide is similar to what they're getting in Sydney, but I'm sticking with very small stakes for both of those possible reasons. I like the look of the price for Velits (34 ew with Bet365). A climber but he's got a good kick on him. He got third last year in a stage in the TdF on a punchy finish (only beaten by EBH and Sagan) and he also showed some good early season form last year in winning the Tour of Oman (including second place on Green Mountain just behind Nibali). Also a couple of outsider picks. McCarthy (151 ew with Bet365) - I've read him descibed as being similar to Albasini. He didn't do so well in the Jayco Sun Herald Tour, but he finished 6th in the Aussie RR Championships the other day so he might be coming into some form. Got a decent kick and might pick up some time bonuses from a reduced group. Wellens (151 ew with Bet365) is another talented youngster. Did well in the Tour de l'Avenir last year, and when given the chance at the end of the season in China he managed to bag a top ten in the Tour of Beijing. Let's hope he's given a chance to challenge for the GC and doesn't have to work for the Gorilla. -
First race of the year is soon, so I guess we better have a new thread. Just going to quote ogii55's post from two years ago as it contains some useful sites for checking news, form and parcours etc.
Here will try to put some interesting info for all cycling punters that would help in the selections during the year! The bigger info stream: www.cyclingnews.com Here you may receive all the laters news and comments every day with some very nice buletins. Also Cyclingnews is keeping archive of all the tours during UCI calendar. They are putting live ticker for bigger races, as well as start lists, previews, maps, fast full results for H2H players as me. Very useful forum also, where you may discus the current races or future ones. Cycling's mania: www.cyclingfever.com The page is made very well. Here you may follow very easy every single race of the UCI calendar. They put sometimes nice previews. You have team lists and they put stats on the competitors how they made in the previous editions of the current race. Very useful info IMO. Cyclists season profile: http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/wielrennen It's a Belgian news page with a lot of actual news and reports. Very useful for competitions in Belgium with many interviews with participants/managers. The most useful part is the profile of every cyclist from the current season. It shows easely where they finished in every competition that took part. Just you may click on "Alle Renners" and to find the cyclist by his name or the name of his team. Cycling's racing post: www.cyclingarchives.com The place, where you may see entire career of every cyclist. Very useful when you comparing or making studies for some competition. Cycling's streams: www.cyclingfans.com This is the place where they collect the most of the video and audio streams around the world that shows cycling. A lot of other useful info as fast results, presentation of future races, photos etc. Cycling's maniacs: www.steephill.tv Very nice page with easy to manage menus. Gives great info for all current and future races. Cool Maps, live tickers - even for races that aren't showed nowhere, you may get some live updates via tweeter zone. Bookies compare: www.oddschecker.com Usual for all other sports. Sometimes didn't check all head to heads around, but however still very nice if you want to get the best price, without goint here or there. Bookies who loves cycling: Paddy power often put earlier odds, comparing to others. Their bookies section are fast enought. If oyu are a Top 3 player, who may use Unibet, Bet24 or Centrebet. From them Unibet gives the best place odds. Bet 365, Paddy, Unibet, Centrebet, Sportingbet, Bet24, WH are putting H2H, with bet365 has the richest market. Pinnacle are mostly the last, who put their odds, but their juice are the best around. Also the market of H2H propositions is rich as bet365. Betfair markets are useful just for big competitions, because there aren't strong trades for smaller. Pinnaclesports gives the best limmits for H2H. In the smallest competition they put a max of around E250 per bet, without changing line. Sometimes it reaches 500. For Grand Tours or World championships you may bet even on E1000 per H2H. Skybet, Ladbrokes, Expekt also put sometimes odds, but they love stronger and TV supported races. This is the basic you need to start geting into cycling world of betting :) -
Re: Cycling 2012 The problem (or good thing depending on which way you look at it) with one day classics like San Sebastian is that there are always loads of guys at 100+ odds who you could quite easily convince yourself have decent shouts at a win or getting placed at least. The difficulty lies in selecting one or two to have an ew bet on, but let's have a go at getting some riders with the ability and form. Nocentini (101 ew with Bet365) has had a good year. Was having a gander at his results for the year on CQ and it's quite impressive actually. Lots of top 10 finishes in stage races and a run of 9th, 12th and 11th in the Ardennes classics (so the 230+ km shouldn't be a problem). His recent form is good with a 6th place finish in the overall at the ToP. Nordhaug (101 ew with Bet365). Maybe a bit more risky as he's likely to be playing second fiddle to Uran, but he showed decent form in the Olympic RR where he made the front group and rode aggressively, and was active in the ToP working for Henao. Was unlucky in the Ardennes to get side swiped by Cunego at AGR where a podium might have been on and the injuries sustained hampered his efforts in the FW and LBL. Devenyns (201 ew with Bet365) seems to like San Sebastian. Fifth last year and 27th and 14th in the preceding years. Was fairly anonymous in Eneco, but still managed 22nd overall. Might have to work for Chavanel or even Stybar, but to me his previous record on the same course indicates he might be a better bet. For instance Zubeldia who also does well at SS is priced at only 34. Might be back later if any more prices get put up or if some riders drift.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Two seconds away from the win. Leading at the intermediate split, but OGRE and OPQS just beat them at the end. Still no ew option on Bet365, so probably no more bets till San Sebastian.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Eneco Tour started today, but unfortunately Bet365 weren't offering ew bets on either the stage win or the overall. Not sure why really, but disappointed as a bet might have made the dull stage today a bit more exciting. The TTT is tomorrow though, so the lack of an ew option doesn't matter so much. Going for Katusha (101 with Bet365). There haven't been that many TTTs this year so far, in fact the only ones I remember are Qatar, TA and the Giro and in two of those Katusha surprised me with their strong performance. It seemed to me that they had been working on getting the most out of the team event - no doubt they didn't want J-Rod to lose much time at the Giro. The team that is at Eneco thankfully contains quite a few of the workhorses that got them these good results at Qatar and the Giro - people like Smukulis, Brutt, Kristoff and Ignatiev. If you add Spilak to that list and take into account that they don't have to babysit J-Rod or Dan Brown, I feel the price should be a bit shorter, maybe less than 50.
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Re: Cycling 2012 That's Peter Velits btw. Just to avoid confusion.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Looks like its a good year for the breaks, but it's the usual suspects getting the wins unfortunately. Prices just up for tomorrow's stage. Going with Velits (101 ew with Bet365) and Albasini (201 ew with Bet365). Been a bit difficult to get decent prices for realistic chances from breaks this tour. Either people have been injured earlier (Kruijswijk has been tempting me all week at prices over 100 - but I've resisted) or haven't shown any form and hence they get a big price, but both Velits and Albasini have been in decent shape and have been in the breaks a few times. Velits is probably the better climber, but Albasini maybe has more "cojones". Both possess a very good uphill kick if required as well.
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Re: Cycling 2012 I see the Kern price is now up, but unfortunately he's at 26 - so no bet there.
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Re: Cycling 2012
Well that was very frustrating when he just couldn't quite hold on to the group of five at the top of the second climb who went onto contest the win. Dull stage though from all accounts so maybe I dodged a bullet in not having to watch the rest of the stage after that. Into the mountains again tomorrow and the ~15km of flat after the final descent might deter too much GC action, so a couple of picks for the break. Caruso (251 ew with Bet365), similar to two days ago Katusha will try and get people in the break since Menchov is out of the GC and Caruso can climb a bit and, if I'm not getting him mixed up with his namesake at Liqugas, has a decent kick on him. Also Kashechkin (201 ew with Bet365) impressed me in the Dauphine with his descending, but a lot will depend on how Kessiakoff goes tomorrow as I'm sure he'll be after KotM points. However I dont see why they wouldn't try to put two people in the break and if Kess doesn't have the legs maybe Kash could try and stop others scoring points. I'll also be keeping an eye out for the price on Kern (no price up yet for him).Vorganov (251 ew with Bet365) -
Re: Cycling 2012 Haven't had much time for any bets/write ups the past few days, but I'll have a go at tomorrow's stage which looks like a perfect one for a breakaway to succeed. Since Menchov blew up today and is now well down the GC, there's a fair chance that Katusha will just switch to chasing stage wins and Vorganov (251 ew with Bet365) might have the requisite skill set to succeed. Decent on the steeper stuff and a strong aggressive rider as shown by his recent Russian National RR win, I reckon they're not bad odds for an each way shout. Fingers crossed that he's let off the leash.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Well done everyone who was on Rolland today. A deserved win after a super tough stage. BTW please please please can we have less drugs chat - there's more than enough of that on a certain other forum without it intruding here.
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Re: Cycling 2012
Might have a broken collarbone unfortunately.Amets Txurruka @ 301 Paddy Loves to attack in the mountains and Euskaltel love to put men into the breaks. If he does get into a break he will be among the best climbers in the group and think these odds are just too high for someone who is in so many breaks on a stage where a break could win. -
Re: Cycling 2012 Crazy day. Nearly all the big favourites made it through unscathed, but it's the outside shouts which have taken a hammering - not a day to remember for Garmin or Astana. Been mentioned on another forum that the crash occurred because a rider was removing their outer shoe and swerved. Just going back to the discussion on Goss, I don't think he personally has done too badly. What is noticeable though is that his leadout train isn't doing as well as it it was earlier in the season (when Goss ironically didn't have the speed to finish it off). It seemed to me that the tactic up until the Tour was to come late to the front at about 1 - 2km with just two or three helpers and go from there, but here in the Tour it's either too dangerous to stay further back or going too quick, so they're having to going with a train on the front and they seem to be losing the battle with Lotto - very noticable today that their train got split. Onto tomorrow though and the first climb - huzzah! It would surprise me greatly if the climb didn't mainly consist of a a Sky train on the front setting a hard pace. We saw this in the Dauphine on a climb nearly as steep, but twice as long and only Quintana really managed to go off the front (and he wasn't a GC threat). The pace they were going at really made attacking more effort than it was worth, so I can see attacks being postponed till very late and the winner coming from a small group who can hang on. Going with Westra (151 ew with Bet365) who has been a bit of a disappointment really, he's got caught up behind (or been involved in) several of the crashes already, but he's got a good kick and if he can produce the form of earlier in the season at Paris-Nice (ascent of Mende) he might be in with a chance. Also Roche (101 ew with Bet365), despite me saying earlier on in the thread that he should go for KotM he seems to be in good shape overall - avoiding trouble and the form is there with 7th on stage 3 and a good performance on Verbier at the TdS, and like Westra he has a kick. To cover the bases though I'll pick someone who might win from a break - Albasini (101 ew with Bet365). Great stage win for him at the TdS where he rode away from Velits to win from a break and he has other examples of doing well from breaks on lumpy stages. He's got nobody at Greenedge to worry about on the GC and if he doesn't try tomorrow he might have a go on Sunday.
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Re: Cycling 2012
I'm on Veelers as well (41 ew with Bet365). Doesn't look to have the speed to challenge the real quick guys, but his skill as a lead out is getting him into good positions and another placing is a real possibility. The danger is of course that Kittel is going to be recovered and Veelers will go back to leading him out, but according to the Argos-Shimano doctor although Kittel is getting a bit better he still isn't able to eat entirely the way they want him to while out on the road. Veelers himself says "On Thursday we are going to try again. I keep coming closer and closer. Maybe we can go for the win. At least that's our goal. Winning is a dream" . So it looks like the price for Kittel at 34 should be much higher and the price for Veelers correspondingly should be a bit shorter.
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Re: Cycling 2012
I'm not so sure either way. I fancy it's more of a case of keeping their options open. With all these crashes and nervousness in the peleton it wouldn't be a huge surprise for Wiggo (or anyone else for that matter) to get injured or lose loads of time somewhere, and if that happens it will be better to have a Cav who's been chasing the intermediate sprint points and is still in the hunt for green, rather than one who's miles behind Sagan already and has zero chance of catching him up. They'll probably postpone any decisions about him going to Paris until they have to and obviously it will depend a lot as well on how he gets on in the sprints in the meantime.You really have to ask yourself why Cav is sprinting these intermediates if he doesn't have a plan to make it to Paris. If you are definitely abandoning in week 2 and you are on a flat stage you don't waste energy sprinting for points at the intermediate sprint points. -
Re: Cycling 2012 Illness strikes again, but I don't mind losing bets to Cav. Very impressive - though there's still a lot of hope there for the Gorilla and Goss over the next sprint stages. Eventually the lack of lead out/help will tell - probably on a more technical finish. 8 is a very good price for Sagan for tomorrow's stage - he's at 3 on Bet365. Gonna be another crazy finish tomorrow. It's difficult to tell the scale looking at the map of the finish, but it looks like there's a 60 degree left immediately followed by a 90 degree right just towards the bottom of the final climb. Going with Kiserlovski (301 ew with Bet365). As you say best mate, certainly the second half of the stage looks very classic-ish (Fleche Wallonne maybe where K was 5th) and it also reminds me a bit of some of the stages in Pais Vasco this year where Kiserlovski had some good placings behind the likes of J-Rod and Sammy Sanchez. Positioning will be vital on the finish km so that just might open the door to a big outsider.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Well done those who got winners yesterday. Bit of a chaotic last 10km. Nothing really of interest today. I was looking at Goss last night but he's since come in from 12 to 10 so no bet there. Will have a double H2H to make the finish a bit more exciting though. Kittel v Cavendish (2.6 with Bet365) Petacchi v Farrar (2.3 with Bet365) Overall odds of 5.97 Cav's weight loss is well documented and it does seem to have drawn his sting a bit. Consistency but no wins in ZLM and we did see him get beaten by Guardini in the Giro by pure speed. I still wouldn't have Kittel as favourite, but his performances in ZLM might suggest the odds should be closer to 50/50. Both guys in the second pick have had poor seasons by their standards, but at least Petacchi (in his last year I believe) has shown some form by picking up 3 wins in the Bayern-Rundfahrt, whereas Farrar just seems to have totally lost his top end speed. There was talk over the winter about how he was gonna try and change so he could challenge in some of the classics, but we haven't seen any evidence of that either. Back to the drawing board I think.
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Re: Cycling 2012 Millar beats Kloden by one second to spoil my double. Prices are up for stage one now. Tricky little finish tomorrow. The profile on the official site doesn't really tell the full story I think, it looks like quite a bit of a drag up to the finish. Sagan is the obvious pick, but there are plenty of other fish in the sea - I just have this feeling one of the Greenedge boys might sneak it, but I'm going with Westra (126 ew with Bet365). Had a decent prologue today and has a good kick in an uphill sprint (for a non-sprinter). The finish tomorrow reminds me a bit of a stage in Paris-Nice where he finished 3rd, so if he can be patient and not go too early he might stand a chance.
Cycling 2013
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Re: Cycling 2013 Right teams, wrong riders and I even dismissed Paolini - doh! Wasn't that exciting unfortunately the race. It wasn't helped by Sporza geo-restricting their stream. Cycling coverage seems a bit cursed so far this year. Hopefully that will change this coming weekend and next week. Strade Bianchi is this Saturday. Fingers crossed it should be on Eurosport and it should be a good race. Lots of big names including the unstoppable Sagan, but a 2nd or 3rd might be up for grabs. I'm having a small bet on Nordhaug (81 ew with Bet365). He's coming back from a small injury, but he showed ok in the Haut Var (finished 14 secs back in the GC). His mountain biking background should help on the gravel roads and he's got a good punch for the nasty kick at the end in Siena. Slagter looks like being Blanco's main man, but Nordhaug with his extra classics experience could do very well here. Paris-Nice starts then on Sunday. No "big" names riding, they're mainly all going to be riding TA next week, so it's a rather open field. In terms of the GC only stages 5 and 7 will probably play a part. Stage 5 finishes on a 13.8 km climb at 6.6% and stage 7 is the same as last year with a TT up Col d'Eze. I'm going with Quintana (10 ew with Bet365). I'm not usually one for backing at such short prices but imo he's head and shoulders ahead of anyone else here in climbing ability (we saw that last year at the Vuelta and the Dauphine), he's in good form - despite having to help Valverde at Murcia and Ruta del Sol he still finished 11th and 7th in the two races. His weakness might be the TT, but because it's an uphill TT any time lost shouldn't be that big.