torn up slip
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Posts posted by torn up slip
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Re: Monsieur Jamie Spencer was on it was he not? Horse had more chance without that buffoon trying to control him.
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Re: Flat Racing 3rd April Had a little bit on Stansonic in the next at Donny. Has to give weight all round but the way he won at Soutwell just before xmas makes me think he could go well here. The trip will be fine for him, it's not been easy for horses coming from a mile back (Hanaghan in the previous race being the exception) and I think he might just be a few pounds well in here, even given he is at least 3lb ahead of all his rivals today. I'll be hoping he's at the head of field from the outset and will hopefully hold the majority of them off.
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Re: Derek Thompson
haha ladcrooks aint they just .. i used to back Emma spencer when she rode a few ' date=' only because of her ass up in the air , she was capable too in the saddle , old Jamie must need his nut testing :nana[/quote'] I think it was Emma that needed her head testing for getting with the lanky streak of piss in the first place. Apparently Spencer was banging Hayley Turner behind her back and thats why it turned sour. As for totty in the saddle, Leonna Mayor is the direction you need to be pointing your eyes in. Im pretty sure she clocked me eyeing her up at Southwell not long before xmas. -
Re: You can't polish a turd thread Fair ****s to you for continuing to post mate as you're leaving yourself open to ridicule with such a thread continuing to show such big losses. I really would suggest a breather of a week or ten days. Or else you might not have a roof over your head this time next month.
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Re: Derek Thompson Done more for racing than the lot of you miserable twats will ever do.
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Re: Catch those 2 years olds Really well found that. I also could not agree more about it being a good point of reference when a 2yr old was actually foaled. It's very rare I ever back an unraced 2 year old but 2nd and 3rd time out 2 year olds who were down the field but caught my eye lto are a particular favourite of mine. Once again though, very well done jtw1.
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Re: Flat Season not starting at Donny??
A Windsor Monday night meeting is one of those fixtures you have to take in before you die. It's like one of them "30 race meetings to attend before you die" type lists. Royal Ascot? Check! Cheltenham? Check! Aintree? Check! All Weather in the middle of winter? Check! Windsor Monday night? Check! Perth on the Sunday followed by Newton Abbott on the Monday? Check! I know what you mean though about wasting your cash at them. Quite often I spend summer evening meetings in between the pub and the bookies. I know it's time to go home when im looking at the form through one eye.A bit random but i can't wait to be looking through those Windsor Monday night cards. Used to love wasting (:sad) my hard earned on them race to race last year in the bookies. -
Re: Wed 4.00 : Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) There's an interesting bit of form for this race I came across earlier. "For Non Stop" finished just 6l from Grand Crus in it's penultimate start at Cheltenham and has since come out and finished 4th (admittedly by 12l) to none other than Backspin at Newbury just 2 weeks later when it's possible there was an issue with the bounce. The vibes from Ireland are very positive about it's work since and connections are expecting a very big run.
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Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Couldn't possibly have Kempes personally as I dont think he has the pace in him to keep up with a strong gallop over 3 miles. The more I look at it the more I think Tidal Bay is the stand out e/w selection. Hopefully he wont get too far behind early on and when the majority of the rest of the challengers have cried enough TB is more than capable of staying on into a place at the very least. The race is no stronger than last year in which a previous 4 1/2M plodder picked up a place.
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Re: Preview Nights - Cheltenham I'll more than likely (depending on how much of a twat my boss is going to be about working Saturday) be going to the one at Doncaster this Saturday. Whether or not i'll be in any fit state to remember any of what's said is another matter entirely :beer :cheers
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Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Yeah I saw that myself earlier. And yet surprisingly given what he said Hills have pushed HF out to 11/2Henderson said earlier at his media day he thinks Hurracaine Fly is the biggest danger to Binocular -
Re: Your festival banker this year...
Show me another horse in the race who has not only had his preperation go exactly to plan but also pick up 7 group one races in only 11 races. Mock all you like, The horse is a serious animal and had it run here at anytime in it's prep and won in as convincing fashion as it has at home it would be clear favourite and you know it. Menorah will not have had a run in approaching 4 months by the time of the race. Peddlers it could be argued has had to wait until a little too late to get his final run and may now be faced with a jockey being sat on him who has never race ridden him. Binocular has run what can only be described as a mixed bag thus far in his prep runs including what it appears to my eyes to be being beaten fair and square by one of it's closet rivals. Hurricane fly has simply gone from strength to strength and looked fantastic in every run he has produced so far.:unsure Don't answer your door if you see any people in white coats. -
Re: Your festival banker this year... Hmmm yeah you're probably right Rat, take this as my edit then. I think he's the best 5/1 banker about. It would be all to easy to stick Cue Card, Time For Rupert, Big Bucks, Garde Champetre or other shorty up as banker material but for me, at the prices knocking about, given what I simply feel is just a massive gulf in class on his rivals then HF is my idea of banker material. The ONLY thing that can beat him imo is the track, if this was being run in Ireland then he'd be odds on. Now im well aware of how incredibly stupid that statement is, but there is twisted logic to it as well in my own sick mind. :loon
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Re: Your festival banker this year... Hurricane fly. His cruising speed, turn of foot and the way he gets over his hurdles without changing foot or losing a single yard is what will seal the race. The fact WM has been patient enough to wait 3 years with him tell's me everything I need to know but watching his races is simply the icing on the cake. The more I think about it, the more I think they simply wont see which way he went. He might not get up the hill the best, But I personally expect him to kick on from the last bend and have put the race to bed after he pings the last. If he doesn't win then im going to owe a lot of my non racing friends a lot of apologies. I've been telling whoever I know to get money on him. :loon Honorubable mention to Ericht in the bumper as well.
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Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Dunguib is definitely worth a shout at 20's but no way would I be backing it at the prices now. The trouble with backing anything at bigger prices is your hoping that the top 4 in the betting dont all run their races and I just dont see that happening. I could only really take KK now at bigger prices as a saver to HF.
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Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Where did you hear this mate? I had my customary additional ten minute sit downs in the bog today with the phone out pillocking about on the net and didn't come across any news alerts like that. Has his price altered much since the announcment?Cue Card comfirmed for the Supreme but leaving the Champion option open incase a few go wrong. -
Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Depends which boozer ya go in I guess. I'll be with my best mate and the pub we go in is a racing pub with a bookies just over the road and it also serves some really good ales. I just cant wait. Every day at work at the minute im just day dreaming and counting the days down. A landmark is reached tomorrow. One month exactly.enjoy, but for me the best place is in front of the tv watching every race, the build up, having all the form at your finger tips and no crowds to get a bet on, having a beer when you want....... i tried to watch gold cup day in the pub last year and it was terrible, i couldnt get into it at all, missed all the talk on the tv and didnt even have a decent beer -
Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Going to be one of THE great festival races of all time I reckon. it is going to be a nightmare for punters but that's what makes it so exciting imo. Im massively keen on HF, I think Menorah has an excellent chance of chasing him home, but I think the fact Peddlers Cross failed to run the other day gives hi too much to do, and I just dont rate Binocular. I've picked a fantastic year for my first Cheltenham experience. Going on the Tuesday and the Wednesday but have booked the week off work for it and will watch the other 2 days in the ale house. Been saving up for weeks now and all being well i'll be getting a new car out of it. Either that or selling my current one to webuyanycar.com :rollinKhyber Kim is confirmed for the CH. Dunbguib also ruled out of the Coral Cup owners weren't keen on it. This is going to be the race of the festival :nana And most probably a nightmare for punters :lol -
Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase
This looks like a really poor Arkle this year and I can see a big priced winner. I was thinking about putting Finians Rainbow in my 10 to follow bonus horses and may do so because I have no Arkle horse but I wasn't that impressed on Saturday' date=' although it was only a small field and we didn't get to see if it would have battled with Kilmurry if they got level. I think it's a race that is going to take a lot of studying because it is one with a potential shock and big priced winner this year.[/quote'] I agree with you on all but one count. Medermit looks the stand out option for me. I really dont know why he is still the price he is given the way he's ran in all but one of his races this year. Beat a likely couple of rivals Lto and looks versatile as regards the ground. The stats back up the form as well and as such I think at the prices available he is a very backable horse. Mikael D'haguenet is the fly in the ointment if he lines up against him imo. -
Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle
So, if im not mistaken then, CC is a swerve in this race according to the stats. Well, im not much of a stat man, more a "is that price fair" sort of bloke and if he is looking like going off at under 5/2 I wont be backing him.SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2011 The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 15th March with the Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years and no surprise to see several Irish trained runners towards the top of the market. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 0-1-11 5yo: 3-10-89 6yo: 5-7-73 7yo: 1-1-24 8yo: 1-1-5 9yo: 0-0-1 No strong trends on ages, 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented just under 80% of the total runners. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days 8 of 10 winners won last time out 10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August 9 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts 9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd over hurdles that season (exception was 4th in grade 1 Christmas Hurdle) 5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle 7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 3 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level) 3 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (7 others were having first course start) Other Races Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner: 3113 (2-2-4) Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 12003 (1-2-5) Johnstown Novice Hurdle winner: 01 (1-0-2) Tolworth Hurdle winner (Minella Class): 501 (1-0-3) Champion Bumper winner (Cue Card): 753 (0-1-3) Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Gagewell Flyer): 280 (0-1-3) Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (First Lieutenant): 35U0 (0-1-4) Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Cue Card): 0900 (0-0-4) 2 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 11 Trainers Irish-trained horses (7-5-63) have taken 7 of the last 10 renewals, including 3 of the last 4. Noel Meade (2-1-11) won the race with Sausalito Bay in 2000 & with Go Native in 2009. Philip Hobbs (1-2-7), Paul Nicholls (1-1-11), Eddie O’Grady (1-0-5) and Willie Mullins (1-0-11) have each trained the winner once in the last 10 renewals. Nicky Henderson (0-4-13) has seen 4 of his 13 runners make the frame. Price Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 4 of the last 6 winners going off 12/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner. Favourites (3-4-12) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.25. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Won last time out in the past 45 days · Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts · Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles · Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle · Finished in first 2 in the Royal Bond or Deloitte Novice Hurdle · Trained in Ireland · Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat -
Re: Thurs 2.05 : Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) Im with BKI on this one. I think Cross Kennon is a massive price considering some of the form he already has in the book and the weight he has carried to victory in some big field handicap races last year.
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Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase
I am the furthest thing from a "stats" man as it's possible to be. But they are absolutely mental, slap you in a face with a wet salmon if you dont pay them attention stats.MEDERMIT Why i think this is the Arkle winner 7 from the last 16 were french bred, 22-24 were 1st or 2nd LTO, only 2 favourites have won since 1992 9 from the last 10 were rated at least 142 over hurdles, only 2 winners were over 7 yo. 6 of Alan Kings winners at Cheltenham were 5-7yos that were 1st or 2nd LTO won between 2m-2m1f at this distance he has saddled 22 runners getting 8 winners 14-22 were at least placed. 36.4% with a profit of £45.50 -
Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Of course his jumping is not 100 perfect. It's called the novice for a reason after all but i've yet to see him make a bad mistake or look at all guessy in any of his races. I was at Aintree the Sunday he won without coming off the bridle in what was not a bad race and I said to myself then that if he goes for the SN then he looks about as much a cert as it can get. The others near it in the betting just dont look anything like his class and to my mind the only danger is that we get a scenario like last year where one at a massive price nobody was considering comes along and chins him.
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Re: Tues 2.05 : Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase Well I fancied Medermit for it before the weekend and now that he's done a number on a a fair chunk of his likely rivals I think he's taken on the look of one of the festival good things. Admittedly i'll not be getting any value but ask me after it's won if im ar$ed. :)
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