torn up slip
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Posts posted by torn up slip
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Re: St Leger
Would be an interesting race for sure. Neither of them were stopping at the line and Sea Moon was making up ground hand over fist as well so I dont see any reason why the 3 shouldn't meet in the GC next year providing all are kept in training. The tactics of Gosden in this were superb though. MM was always thought of as a stayer, Godolphin planted a pacesetter to try and expose any limitations in Sea Moon's un tested stamina and Gosden produced pocket aces with Buthelezi imo. Brilliant race and even though I got beat into 2nd full credit to the Gosden and Buick. The boy is a serious talent and I hope he starts to get the chances he deserves on the world stage. He's got champion jockey written all over him in the next couple of years given the right opportunities.On another note, does anyone think Brown Panther could get closer, or maybe even beat Masked Marvel if they met in the Ascot Gold Cup ? I have a feeling that could be a race. -
Re: Flat Racing 7th September
What part of Doncaster are you in pal because im here as well and the only rain of note we had was last night and even then it was only very brief. It has drizzled at times this morning and there does look to be a good chance of rain but the clouds are moving fast and if it's anything like yesterday it may turn out fair this afternoon. The ground is stil good to firm at present and I think that will suit Googlette down to the ground. Been running in much better races than this this term on ground which is unsuitable. Will get much improved ground today, was previously very progressive and in first time blinkers will surely run above it's price.Had a bit of rain in doncaster this morning and still raining now. Showers forecast this afternoon. Doubt it will be good to firm -
Re: Time To Say Goodbye Hopefully you land a 8 horse acca and can afford to pay for the finest surgeon/doctors and the sexiest nurses to get you back on track. Get well soon anyway ace.
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? My point remains. You clearly stated from the outset that you felt you could make a sustained profit from backing short priced winners on a regular basis. You've been at it nearly 3 months now and are showing a not insignificant loss. So I ask again. At what point will you cut your losses and face up to the cold hard fact of the realisation you've made a hash of things. Odds on betting is something that is more than acceptable at the right time. Relying on this method solely though has time and time again, by people far superior to you or I at the game, been proven to be one of the most sure fire ways to show a line of profit far inferior to those who back each race on it's own merits and who try to find the better value price. You cant possibly still have any confidence in what you initially said. If you think im merely insulting you then I apologise, but I genuninely think your just being pig ignorant now in the face of overwhelming evidence to support what im saying.
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house?
You wont reply to the OP because you have no logical or rational argument that would defend your case you mean. Let's not kid each other on otherwise. Lets hear you try and defend what your doing if you still believe in it yourself. Dont try and pi$$ up my back and tell me it's raining. Do yourself a favour before you make yourself look a bigger fool than what you already are and admit to making a complete bollocks of trying to prove what you initially stated you could by making a sustained profit from backing odds on shots. The over insistence on here of high fiving and cock skiing each other is nauseating.Mowgli, Thankyou for moving all of the comments out of my thread, the original post would have just polluted it to be honest. There have been some really good posts in this thread to be honest, notably from DM99 who posted one of the better posts that I have seem for a while. I will not reply to the original post that started all this as I would just be wasting my time at this stage I feel. Cheers again Mowgli, and also Thankyou to the people who realise and have pointed out that the general etiquette of this forum is to respect other members and not to mock them. -
Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Perhaps I could have worded it better, but lets stop circle jerking each other here. Sometimes there is a time and place for a few home truths and not trying to spare peoples feelings. The thread has consistently shown that the strategy of backing odds on shots is completely the wrong process for showing a reliable, continued, sustained profit. The fact he is pereservering with it tells me he is more concerned with trying to prove everyone else wrong than he is of proving himself right. I dont believe he is actually backing these horses with any proper money in all honesty, as if he was he would surely have realised by now that it is not what he had hoped for when he initially set out. Odds on backing is more than acceptable on occassion. But only on a certain type of race imo. Backing odds on shots in class 4,5 and 6 handicapps, novice/nursery races, maiden's etc etc is for the foolhardy.
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Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread
Excuse me? At what point in that post have I called him a tosser? Or been in anyway defamatory or agressive towards him? I've been nothing but civil whilst also raising what I believe to be legitimate arguments for deeming his thread and his strategy unsuccessful. Unlike you, who has called me names on more than one occassion. So perhaps you might want to readdress your definition of an internet hardman. Id also be willing to say the exact same thing to him face to face, which also applies to you if you want to have a nice little chat at the next punters lounge get together.What a tosser!! Cant stand internet-hardmen! -
Re: BBOTD 21st August 3:30 Newton Abbott. Iheardu. 10/3 BOG william hill. Think he's in with a great shout here. A lot of the other runners have either been raised by the handicapper, iffy jumpers, out of form or are not certain to get the trip. None of that apply's to this fella though and he's brought out again quickly after a good win at Southwell last Sunday. Similar track to Southwell and the configuration of the fences is also pretty similar. The fact he's dragged all the way down there as well is surely a good indicator for what's a pretty meagre pot. A big run surely on the cards.
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At what point will you begin to start thiking this has not been the success you had hoped for? Surely after a couple of months of backing every short priced horse in the land with wildly variable staking tactics it's clear that this is not the correct path to tread when your lookin for keeping a sustained, clear, reliable profit line? To be polite this method you've chosen has been hit and miss. A profit of 1pt in 2 months for backing 8/11 shots and 5/6's etc can not be deemed a success can it when in truth people who are making selections based on each races merits are managing to turn profits way in excess of yours. To me, all your demonstrating is what anyone with more than a couple of brain cells already knew. Odds on backing is ok on occassions but it is by no way meant to be the long term route to successful punting you have tried to demonstrate it can be. But carry on with the selections, it gives me a laugh if nothing else.The following few posts are taken from Wizzkid Walters thread, I've moved them in here so we can actually continue the debate in a sensible manner. No more abuse and bitching, debate the topic by all means, I will add my thoughts shortly. -
Re: course specialist Any track can be specialist imo. Even on the flat, sweeping, easy to handle tracks some horses can fall in love with the place and others just not like it for whatever reason. However I do agree that the Brightons, Goodwood's, Ascot's and Southwell's of the world are a lot more "specialist" in the true sense of the word. Disagree about Chester though. It's not the track itself that is specialist. It's all down to the draw.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 29th July Really pushed for time but here's my selections for today. 2:00 Harris Tweed. Holding his form extremely well all season, much better right handed than left imo and his second to Await the Dawn lto is the best form on offer imo. 3:10 Soorah, very nicely weighted, needs to be held up but will get plenty of cover from draw 12 and often finishes it's races powerfully. 3:45 2 selections. Bogart and Silverheels. Bogart was hugely impressive on debut, unexposed, held in high regard by it's trainer (I read the stable tour in the RFO outlook recently and he said he really likes the horse) Silverheels, very impressive under Ryan Moore on debut at Windsor (iirc) and 2nd lto to Red Duke is tip top form. 4:50 Rimth. I love the class dropping angle in races and this one fits the bill beautifully. Already won in this grade at Newbury and not disgraced in the French Guineas.
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Re: Flat Racing 18th July
According to the results on RP site it pi55ed it by 7?1ST by 1 length Made all the running :nana -
Re: Flat Racing 18th July 7:40 Sirius Prospect. Some really solid form for this horse, been running in a higher grade both last season and this and I think the trainer is still to discover it's proper trip. One of only a couple in the field who still look open to improvement, slight concern it never got home last time given it was running over much further last year but these conditions tonight look ideal for a spot of "catch me if you can" type front running and I know the trainer does also think a lot of the horse. Im a big fan of the class droping angle and this one fits the bill perfectly.
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Re: The Jockey Thread
I agree with most of what your saying pal but for him to have a serious chance of being in there with a shout come Sept/Oct/Nov he's going to have to be picking up rides for more prolific stables than the likes of those four above. If Someone like Roger Varian for instance was to give him a winner or 2 a week along with the likes of Johnston and the others you mention then maybe he will make it interesting at least. 2/1 though is crazy and is (clearly) just the bookies trying to limit their liabilitys from the 40's they were laying just 6 weeks ago.40/1, you've got a belter there Rat. I'm tempted to steam in even at his current price, as I don't think Stoute has been as strong as normal this year which will effect Moore. Moore seems more interesting in making a good impression on Ballydoyle, and fair play there. Hanagan is as good as ever but I'd fancy Silvestre to take him if it came down to the two. Both have the motivation and arent bothered about travelling all over the country and making multiple trips on the same day. Hanagan does have perhaps a better quality of animal at his disposal for Fahey but Silvestre is getting plenty of rides for Johnston which will be a big help and the likes of Green, Harker, Duffield and Carr all seem to offer him rides, his agents usually seems to have him fully booked up anyway. Really looking forward to seeing how the battle unfolds but have no financial interest yet, other than perming Silvestre's rides in doubles each day! -
Re: The Jockey Thread
Your at least gonna get a run for your dough mate. I still fancy Hanaghan to take it as Johnston is a trainer I tend to find sends out winners in clumps rather than consistently. That added to the fact Hanaghan has the pick of a lot of spare Northern rides and he's still clear fav to me. If one of the bigger Northern stable lends it's weight behind SDS though, who knows. Fingers crossed mucka.Well this is looking decent now :lol -
Re: Have you ever been "knocked back"
Ellison should have done the "change to superior jockey " trick ' date=' once the money was down. It looks like the jockey fluffed it at the start. Shame for the connections it was just foiled because next time it won't be the same conditions and the same price , everybody is in the loop now.[/quote'] Ellison is the worlds worst for that. -
Re: Have you ever been "knocked back" Never been knocked back by a betting shop or online but that's probably because I wouldn't dream of putting a bet on above 50 quid without being on the track so I could look at the horse in the paddock beforehand. And i've never been knocked back by a bird full stop but that's because im a handsome mofo. :cigar
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Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable?
Ok i'll hold my hands up and admit saying he has no right to act in the way he does was wrong. He can act however he wants but acting in such a morose manner leaves him open to accusations of being a grumpy, miserable sod who is either looking down his nose at others or really is just as miserable as he comes across.I LOVE YOUR QUOTE WELL ACTUALLY HE DOES, HE CAN DO AS HE WISHES, HE IS HIS OWN MAN AND CAN CHOOSE HOW HE WISHES TO CONDUCT HIMSELF, HOW WOULD YOU FEEL IF YOU WERE TOLD BY PEOPLE WHO NEVER NEW YOU HOW TO CONDUCT YOURSELF, I BELIEVE YOUR ANSWER WOULD BE MIND YOUR OWN ......... BUISNESS OR WORDS TO THAT AFFECT. THIS FORUM CRACKS ME UP. YOU ALL SEEM TO BE THE WORLDS BEST JUDGES NOT ONLY ON HORSES, RACING NOW PEOPLES CHARACTERS LOL:$ -
Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable?
Because when people turn CH4 on on a Saturday afternoon and see him win a GP1 race with over 100k going to the winning owners and related connections and see the crowd etc full of elation and joy immediately after the horse has crossed the line they are immediately caught up in the feel good factor. 30 seconds after the horse has crossed the line and Emma Ramsden is out on the track talking to Moore asking him how he feels the casual armchair punter who has a growing interest in racing is then met by a bloke with a face looking like he's just lost 20 quid. He has no right behaving in the manner he does. He has one of the top jobs in racing despite not being the most talented or hardest working. I could name you half a dozen right away who are more fitting of the job imo. (DE Sousa, Fortune, Makin, Fallon, Turner and Hanghan) He's living an extremely privileged lifestyle thanks to horse racing, the least he could do is look like he's enjoying it. There are times when I think to myself after listening to him "Jesus, why do you even bother you sour faced t1t"Why would Ryan Moore do more harm than good to racing? I can't see that myself. Its not like he behaves like an ape like a Wayne Rooney on and off the pitch. The media manipulated the BBC SPOTY award last year in favour of McCoy. Many years ago a sportsperson got the most votes via a public campaign but was disqualified because it was against their rules and it was given to someone more popular ( female athelete not 100% sure).Don't know why it was acceptable for McCoy to win it last year under similar circumstances after the precedent of throwing out public campaigns . I wish people would stop hounding Moore and let him do what he does best. -
Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable?
Maybe he is or maybe he isn't. Doesn't mean he has to give interviews ' date=' he can choose not to give them or give one word answers , either are acceptable to me.[/quote'] For one reason or another Moore has been one of the leading names under the flat code for the last 3 or years. That brings with it certain privileges and alongside them come certain obligations imo. None moreso in the lead up to the derby this year. He was the same, monotone, miserable as sin, seemingly un-coperative bu9ger despite it being the best opportunity flat racing has had for as long as I can remember to promote itself to the wider public. I admit there are huge differences between each others situation but could you ever see the racing media getting behind Moore in the same way they did for Mcoy to be BBC SPOTY? The reasons are simple imo, Moore would do more harm than good if he was under such backing imo. Personally I wish the journo's would just leave him alone and stopped asking him questions pre and post race. Certainly the tv ones anyway, his demeanour in front of the cameras does the sport no favours whatsoever. -
Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable? Im just not wearing this insistence from some on here that Moore is a "shy, quiet, timid" sort of bloke. He's made snidey remarks towards just about every member of the racing media. That is not the actions of an unassuming individual to me. He really is just a miserable, pig headed so and so who treats those in the media with an astonishing lack of respect just because they've never been on horseback.
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Re: Well Done Hayley Turner I think she's an excellent jockey. Her timing in particular is very impressive imo.
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Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Ok maybe me saying you've been lucky was the wrong choice of phrase. However, and the facts from this thread back me up, backing short priced favourites is in the long term not proven to show any sort of regular, sustained profit. The fact remains that odds on backing is horrific value for money, it should be blindingly obvious that any horse running in any race is more likely to get beat than it is to win. So backing odds on therefore is pretty much cast iron to show a negative over a period of time. Im not intending to offend anyone by the way, I know I can come across slightly off key at times (propa yorkshire man, call a spade a spade n all that) but im not going to pussy foot about either. I reckon you could write a mathematical phesis on why betting odds on is guranteed to turn a loss over a period of time that is likely to produce the right amount of data to support what im saying.
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Re: Jockeys on Facebook Irishbugger currently on electronic tag? Not allowed to be withing half a mile of a British racecourse? :eek
St Leger
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: St Leger
Not something id ever really given a lot of thought to tbh (moreso the fool am I) but yeah I could see that being an issue. He does appear to be one of those lads who could balloon just by walking past a mcdonalds as he's got one of those tubby faces. The talent is undoutedly there though as you say. Much like Phillip Makin imo, but I digress.