IAmGooner
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Posts posted by IAmGooner
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Re: May06-13 ATP Madrid - Almagro vs Giraldo OVER 20.5 games @ 8/11 (Bwin) Almagro seems too short for me in this one, he leads h2h 4-0 and this line has been covered in 3 of those matches, last one was this year in Indian Wells which went to a 3rd set tie-break. Almagro's form seems to have dipped a bit too so he might be beatable here. Giraldo is an attacking player and conditions can be quite quick in Madrid, can see this one being a competitive match.
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Re: May06-13 ATP Madrid - Wawrinka to beat Rochus 2-0 @ 8/13 (Stan James:3pts) Think this looks like a good win for Stan. Rochus not doing a whole lot recently, going down easily to Tomic and GGL on clay which are not great results. Feisty little guy but serve is very attackable and he's one of the easiest guys to ace on tour. Stan having a decent clay swing, beating guys he should and losing to better players like Nadal and Del Potro, at least playing competitive matches with them. Match should be on his racquet here with his bigger game and weapons, and I fancy a 2-0 win for the Swiss. Have a few others on my list too.
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Re: April 30-May 6
WIN WIN..........comfy enough. Second set was tight with Haas and Baghy but Haas took the tie-break. Some nice shouts in here aswell.WTA Estoril - Kanepi to beat Cetkovska @ 1.641 (Pinnacle:3pts) ATP Munich - Haas to beat Baghdatis @ 2.20 (Bwin:4pts) -
Re: Wolves v Everton > 6 May We've seen a little upturn in Wolves displays recently - 4-4 draw at Swansea where they looked battered at one point, 0-2 home defeat to City where they were well beaten but did put in a tough effort throughout, and a 0-0 away to Sunderland. Everton's price is beginning to drop into 1.7 territory and it doesnt appeal anymore to me. I kinda sense a tight enough game in this one but need to delve deeper to see if I can find some value.
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Re: Arsenal v Norwich > 5 May I've had a good read on our recent matches vs Chelsea(under) and Stoke(lay us), but this one seems a little trickier and I'm struggling to see value right now. Looking at our recent matches, the main problem for me has been the lack of goals - last 6 games for us: Stoke away 1-1 draw Chelsea home 0-0 draw Wigan home 1-2 loss Wolves away 3-0 win City home 1-0 win QPR away 1-2 loss Patchy form at best- 2wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, only scored more than 1 in one of those 6 games and that was a banker at Wolves who were doomed and had a man sent off. I expect a win on Saturday but bookies are expecting a free-scoring game - UNDER 3.5 is priced @ 1.935 @ Pinnacle which gives you an idea. I mean I can see the possibility of a free-scoring game but IMO not alot of things point to that right now. Hate these bloody early kick-offs too, team usually half-asleep early on.
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Re: Aston Villa v Tottenham > 6 May Tbh I think Spurs are playable at anything above 1.80. Villa in current shape are one of the worst sides in the division, the whole atmosphere around the club just seems off to me and its down to McLeish. Him and many players havent delivered this season and thats why you see a club with Villa's resources and personnel sweating about relegation. McLeish knows nothing else apart from negative tactics, even moreso against the stronger sides so Villa's only chance here for a draw at best for me is defending for their lives with numbers back, possibly capitalising on a mistake or a set-piece. I dont see enough about this current current Villa side to be able to execute said tactics though and I think Spurs will eventually pick them off, although maybe not as comfortably as the Bolton match in midweek where the home side abandoned defence completely which is suicidal against pacy players. I expect Villa to play the opposite but also lose the match. Spurs to beat Aston Villa @ 1.862 (Pinnacle:3pts)
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Re: Newcastle v Man City > 6 May City are too short for me, completely unbackable at 1.6ish, I'd price them closer to 2.00. This is it for the title, they also have to play QPR at home which is a home banker, so win at Newcastle and the job is virtually done. Newcastle won't roll over anyway - they are playing with plenty of fight and confidence, Cisse is the form striker in the league right now, solid midfield, Ben Arfa on form recently, packed stadium roaring them on - I think City will have to work extremely hard to get the necessary result. No bet on City at these prices for me.
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Re: April 30-May 6 Haas is on tomorrow, so taking one for today. WTA Estoril - Kanepi to beat Cetkovska @ 1.641 (Pinnacle:3pts) Match should be on Kanepi's racquet here, being the aggressive player with bigger weapons. She started the year on fire winning Brisbane, then crashed early in the Oz open and has had injury troubles since and some poor results as she looks to regain form. She lost to Jankovic in the 1/4's in Copenhagen and now, two decent results here on clay, killing Stephens and a solid win over tricky Vania King last round.Cetkovska has not had a great yeat compared to last year, some good performances and some shockers. Lost to Johansen in 2 last week which wasnt good, two wins here over Heather Watson and Panova.....not huge tests so we'll see what she's at today. Price seems about right to me.
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Re: April 30-May 6 ATP Munich - Haas to beat Baghdatis @ 2.20 (Bwin:4pts) Think Haas is worth a go as the underdog here. Watched parts of his win over Tsonga and it was impressive stuff from Tommy. Served well, taking control of the points with good shotmaking. Tsonga didnt play too great and is generally impatient on a clay-court which hinders him, can return like a clown at times aswell but a 6-1 6-4 win for Haas is a good showing over one of the top players. He also demolished Berrer in rd 1, 0 and 2. Baghy looks beatable here to me, two 3 set wins so far over Kamke and Dustin Brown....both players looked like they had chances to win the match against him but simply couldnt maintain the level, Baghdatis began to play more solid and let them self-destruct. Haas in this form should be an even tougher one for Baghy, and I think worth a play as an underdog here. :hope
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Re: Man City v Man United > 30 April
WIN......:) Worked out pretty well in the end, and some decent value on the unders.UNDER 2.5 goals @ 2.20 (Stan James:2pts) -
Re: Man City v Man United > 30 April Most people are thinking goals and I can see why, given the attacking quality on display. However, my gut feeling is that this will go under 2.5 goals, I can see the potential for overs and if United score first and in the first half, City will really have to go all out and push forward. But I think we'll see two concentrated sides, working hard and trying to limit mistakes to a minimum. Seems foolish to take unders with Tevez, Aguero Silva, Rooney, Nani on the field but we've seen these big games become bogged down in the past, with sides cancelling eachother out. City are also formidable opposition at home and I dont think they'll be breached easily tonight. I'll try UNDER 2.5 goals @ 2.20 (Stan James:2pts) Small bet as I said I can see the potential for a cracker, just a feeling I have that the game wont turn out like that.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 Azarenka looked fine to me, wrist wasnt hindering her at all. Sharapova just played superb tennis, serving brilliantly. I doubt she'll be able to do that on an outdoor clay court but we'll see. Azarenka is a brat and deservedly lost. She's like Murray, there;s always some excuse when she gets beaten....but she was moving and hitting the ball as she always does, only this time Sharapova served well and didnt gift her errors.
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Re: Stoke vs Arsenal - April 28th We actually played alot better than I expected, deserved to win the game I think. Dominated possession and far more chances, dealt well with their route one tactics bar the cross for Crouch. At least people made some cash from the Stoke +0.5, even if we did win today I believe that bet was where the value lied.
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Re: April 23 - April 29 WTA Stuttgart - Azarenka -3.5 games vs Radwanska @ 4/5 (Paddy Power:4pts) Neither girl is as good on clay surface as hard, but still have to favour Azarenka here. I dont think Radwanska plays with enough power or is aggressive enough to beat Aza these days. The people who have caused her major problems have been able to dictate and hit winners - BArthel did it yesterday and at Indian Wells but basically hit too many errors and was too naive to finish the job, Bartoli and Cibulkova did it in Miami. Radwanska's strategy needs Azarenka to be well below par to beat her in this shape as she is fitter, stronger, and grinds better. I expect plenty of breaks of serve but Azarenka to prevail with a bit to spare. She dominates the H2H and in 2012 it is 4-0, all in QF's or SF's of events. :hope
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Re: April 23 - April 29 :eyes
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Re: Wigan v Newcastle > 28 April I'm going to disagree with that, and say that I think Wigan will get at least a point in this one. Newcastle have been brilliant this season though and Cisse was an inspired piece of business. I priced the game up pretty similarly to the bookies, I can maybe see a slight bit of value on Wigan.
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Re: West Brom v Aston Villa > 28 April Don't see Villa winning this one, my thinking now is narrow WBA win or a draw. The atmosphere around Villa is really bad these days. Value might be going from WBA's price though.
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Re: Man City v Man United > 30 April Cannot wait for this one, it's gonna be a cracker. City have to win to gain control in the title race, United don't have to win, draw is a fine result but a win virtually kills their neighbours off. I wonder how Fergie will approach this one, his traditional system uses two forwards, two wingers.....this season it is Rooney playing in a slightly deeper role than Welbeck or Hernandez, sometimes dropping deeper into midfield to help out. Carrick and Scholes will almost certainly be the midfield pairing and that is a key area of the field as City can outnumber United there depending on the team selection. Mancini will surely favour the Tevez/Aguero partnership which has revitalised City's title challenge in recent weeks. I expect those to cause United real problems at the back....United's defence is generally strong but I think in Rafael and Evans they have weak links potentially. Interested to read people's opinions over the next week in the build-up.
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Re: Villa v Bolton > April 24th Real nightmare match for punters IMO. I've looked at this from every angle and I just cannot put real money on any scenario. FWIW I do think Villa are too short, there's a real rotten atmosphere around the place these days and I think McLeish will get the bullet once the season ends. However I cannot put real money on this Bolton side either, not in this match-up anyway. My gut would say draw or narrow Aston Villa win, but gonna pass....plus big CL clash on so mind will be elsewhere.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Semi-Final 2nd Leg > Tuesday 24 April Fully expect a Barca win but the odds look horrific to me. 1.2ish for a straight win 1.4ish to qualify Couldn't be having any of that. We all know how the pattern of the game will go.....Barca will be monopolising possession and relying on Messi to be the game-changer and deliver up front. Chelsea will be defending with everyone bar a striker, and I seriously doubt Drogba can replicate his antics in the Nou Camp where he wont get the little decisions. My guess is a Barca win with at least one game-changing decision in Barca's favour from the referee as has happened in quite a few knockout games over the years for them.
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[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row1] [TD]
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[TD=class: firstColumn] Stoke City v Arsenal (15:00 BST) [/TD]
[TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.7 [/TD]
[TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD]
[TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.94 [/TD]
[TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.22 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Stoke 4.670
Arsenal 1.870
Seriously folks, these odds are not correct. We should not be below evens away to Stoke, not when we are in good form and full strength, and definitely not now when we are limping over the finish line with injuries and our main goalscorer beginning to tire out and stop scoring.
Stoke absolutely HATE us, despise us, mainly down to Wenger's comments a few years back about the style of play, they seem to attribute the subsequent media criticism of their style to Wenger's initial comments about the physicality and throw-ins etc. There is so much bad blood between the sides and they relish when we have to travel up there. The crowd are bang up for it, getting on top of our players and giving abuse, and the players are usually pushed on by them. We all know Stoke raise their level for the big sides at the Britannia and this league game is right up there for them - City drew there 1-1, United drew there 1-1, Spurs lost 2-1, Liverpool lost 1-0, Chelsea drew 0-0. They've not seemed as strong at home in other matches but you can almost always count on Stoke putting in a dogged performance when the big boys roll into town.
Here's a look at some of our previous trips to Stoke, I'm usually not one to look back at past matches but there is a pattern in terms of how the games pan out.
- 08/09 - Stoke 2-1 Arsenal.....first season in the top flight for Stoke, well deserved win against us. Two throw-ins killed us and Stoke successfully disrupted our rythm while imposing their style on us.
- 09/10 - Stoke 1-3 Arsenal.....the infamous game where Ramsey had his leg broken sadly by that caveman Shawcross. Again we were undone by a throw-in, we equalised through Bendtner and then the red card/leg break. We struggled to break down 10 man Stoke after until the last minute when we got a pen which Fabregas scored. We added salt to the wound in stoppage time with a Vermaelen tap-in.
- 09/10 FA CUP - Stoke 3-1 Arsenal.....more throw-in troubles for us, equalised and pushed on for the winner but got killed on the break.
- 10/11 Stoke 3-1 Arsenal....again we had more of the ball, looked nice in possession but were undone at the back, made mistakes and got punished. Stoke then sit back, let us pass the ball and hit on the break.
I'm very concerned about this match and I don't think we'll win at the Britannia on Saturday. We look a bit lethargic right now, injuries are picking up again and you really need the stomach for battle away to Stoke, let's just say I doubt this current team have got it. If we get more than a point I'll be surprised and obviously happy. Arteta is gone for the season, that means midfield shape is out the window, we look disjointed without him. Walcott has now done his hamstring and is done for the season, that means Gervinho(or Chamberlain) will have to play, Walcott can be bad at times but at least he's a goal threat, dont know what to think of Gervinho as he's offered nothing since returning from Africa a few months back. Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Song, Ramsey or Diaby, Rosicky, Benayoun, Van Persie, Gervinho Stoke will sit back, let us pass the ball around and wait to hit us on the break, play for set-pieces and throws. They'll get about us and try to disrupt our play. Our midfield looks soft to me at this stage, Van Persie is slowing down in recent weeks after carrying our attack all season, he's beginning to miss chances he would usually stick away. Value is all on Stoke at this point. Right now I'd say Stoke +0.5 @ 2.060(Pinnacle) is a great bet and represents value too. I won't be betting on it as I never oppose my team but at certain points in the season you feel as a fan when you just wont get the job done...I felt that at home to United when we had injuries aswell and it panned out pretty much like I thought. This seems like another predictable Arsenal slip-up, squad looking tired, always liable to concede, goals beginning to dry up. Stoke +0.5 is the bet here I think.Interested to see what people think about this match, I would price us at least 2.20 tbh.
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Re: Aston Villa v Sunderland > April 21st ^^ WIN there, went pretty much to plan.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea > April 21st
WIN........:) Called this one fairly well.This match screams UNDERS to me and I think the value is on that line. Arsenal vs Chelsea UNDER 2.5 goals @ 2.100 (Pinnacle:4pts) Chelsea have gone back to their old style tactics since Di Matteo has come in, AVB tried to get them playing higher up the field, pressing in advanced positions, whereas Di Matteo has gone back to what made Chelsea strong.... defending in numbers alot deeper, and more direct attacking play.I see them setting up to defend against us and this can often cause us big problems trying to find solutions to break down packed defences. Drogba is out aswell which means Torres comes in, I think Koscielny and Vermaelen can deal with Torres pretty well. I can see this being like the Man City game.....fairly tight, not loads of chances for either side. -
Re: Aston Villa v Sunderland > April 21st Villa 2.180 Sunderland 3.780 Latest odds at Pinnacle. Villa look a tad short to me, would have them somewhere between 2.3-2.5. There just seems to be a bad atmosphere about Villa these days, I know a few of their fans and they hate McLeish and despise his tactics, but are hoping to simply get through the season as a EPL side and hope the owner decides to change things this Summer. When you look at Villa's squad at various points in the season, the whole thing screams mismanagement to me. They should be alot higher in the table. Sunderland have been brilliant under MON although it fair to say things have slowed down recently(0-0 vs Wolves, but good draws vs Spurs and City too), only problems I can see for them is when they go behind, they dont seem to possess the attacking capabilities to chase games successfully and end up looking very vulnerable and ultimately conceding more e.g Everton away, West Brom away. In this one I can see both sides cancelling eachother out for the most part. Draw wouldnt surprise but I never back draws. Sunderland +0.5 AH vs Aston Villa @ 1.725 (Bet365:3pts)
May06-13
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: May06-13
WIN WIN ATP Madrid - Federer vs Raonic OVER 21.5 games @ 8/11 (Stan James:3pts) Federer playing his first match since Miami 6 weeks ago, now starting in Madrid on blue clay, I sense a tricky one for the great man here. But Raonic will have problems breaking Fed too often I think, if at all. Milos is however playing at a high level right now, semi finals in Barcelona which seemed unlikely going into the event as he lost to grinder Montanes the week before. But he was just finding his rhythm on the surface and then took out the likes of Almagro, Murray in Barcelona before falling to Ferrer in the semi's in a tight match 7-6 7-6. First match in Madrid today he took Nalbandian out in straight sets, serving bombs with 16 aces and breaking twice. Convincing win. Can see at least one tie-break, maybe a Fed win in 2 or 3.